Posted inTracks Reports

Fair Grounds – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for December 28, 2025

No CommentsPosted inTracks, Reports


Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!

Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!

The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Fair Grounds Race Course & Slots offers an intriguing 8-race card this Sunday, December 28, 2025, headlined by competitive allowances on the turf. The “Championship Meet” is in full swing, and handicappers must navigate a unique weather setup and established track biases.

Below is the detailed analysis, notes, and selections for the day's races.

Race Day Overview

Date: Sunday, December 28, 2025
Post Time: First Post 12:45 PM CST
Weather: Unseasonably warm with a high of 75°F and a low of 52°F. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect until 10:00 AM CST, which may leave moisture in the air and track surfaces early. Precipitation chance is 25%.
Track Conditions:

  • Dirt: Fast (Likely sealed or harrowed early due to fog/moisture).
  • Turf: Good to Firm. The dense fog may leave the grass with some “give” early in the card.

Track Bias Analysis

Data from the first five weeks of the 2024-2025 meet reveals strong trends that bettors should respect.

Dirt Sprints (6F):

  • Inside Speed Dominance: The rail and inside posts (1-3) are winning at a 58% clip over the last two weeks.
  • Running Style: Early runners and “stalkers” (sitting 2nd/3rd) control these races. Deep closers are struggling unless the pace is blistering.
  • Strategy: Upgrade horses breaking from posts 1-4 who possess tactical speed. Downgrade rail horses that lack gate speed, as they risk getting shuffled back.

Dirt Routes (1 Mile+):

  • Extreme Inside Bias: Posts 1-3 have won 63% of recent dirt routes.
  • Pace: Early speed is lethal, winning 50% of races.
  • Strategy: The “Golden Rail” is real. Be very hesitant to bet closers from wide posts (8+) unless they have massive class advantages.

Turf Routes:

  • Fair/Balanced: Unlike the dirt, the turf course is playing fairly, with no single post group winning more than 37%.
  • Style: Stalkers and mid-pack closers are effective. Watch for horses that can save ground and kick.

Fair Grounds Meet Bias Summary (Last 14 Days)

DistanceTop Performing PostsPreferred Running StyleWin % (Posts 1-3)
Dirt Sprint1, 2, 3Early / Presser58%
Dirt Route1, 2, 3Speed / Stalker63%
Turf Route4 – 8Balanced32%

Race 1: Maiden Claiming ($20k)

Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) | Post Time: 12:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

In a field of 2-year-olds with limited form, gate speed is king. Money Drop (5) shows “Fast Stalker” traits in workouts and should be forwardly placed. Respectheconnect (4) is noted as a “Fast Closer,” which usually means he can sit mid-pack and finish. Azteca Storm (8) draws the outside but has the pedigree to send.

Key Contenders

Money Drop (5): The likely favorite (ML 5/2) drops into a winnable spot. Despite a gate scratch in November, the works suggest readiness. Trainer Dane Noel will likely instruct C.J. McMahon to use the horse's natural speed to clear the field before the turn.
Azteca Storm (8): Listed at 3/1, this colt has had some veterinary hiccups (scratched Dec 12) but finds a soft field. Ben Curtis is riding at an elite 20% clip this meet. If he breaks clean, he can overcome the wide draw.

Secondary Choices

I Got The Hint (6): Shane Wilson is a volume trainer who often strikes with these types. At 5/1, he offers value if the top two falter.
Respectheconnect (4): Marcelino Pedroza Jr. is an aggressive gate rider. If the pace collapses, this colt is the most likely beneficiary.

Betting Strategy

The inside bias suggests looking for a horse that can get to the rail. Money Drop has the speed to cross over.

Selections

Win: Money Drop (5)
Place: Azteca Storm (8)
Show: Respectheconnect (4)

Race 2: Claiming ($12.5k)

Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) | Post Time: 01:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Angelic Knight (3) and Final Half (1) project to control the pace. Drawing the rail, Final Half must go, which plays perfectly into the track bias. Josh G (4) has speed but may get caught wide.

Key Contenders

Angelic Knight (3): The class of the field (ML 2-1). Ben Curtis aboard for David Terre. He has the tactical speed to sit just off the rail horse and pounce.
Final Half (1): Draws the coveted rail post. In dirt sprints at FG this meet, the rail is winning nearly 20% of the time. If he breaks, he could wire this field.

Longshots

Vega Star (5): A 9-1 shot who could pick up the pieces if the top two duel. Shane Wilson trains.
Deal Of Faith (7): Mitchell Murrill is a savvy rider, but the wide post is a significant disadvantage against this bias.

Betting Strategy

Focus on the inside duel.

  • Wager: Exacta 3-1 / 1-3.

Selections

Win: Angelic Knight (3)
Place: Final Half (1)
Show: Vega Star (5)

Race 3: Claiming ($15k)

Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) | Post Time: 01:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Platinumus Maximus (7) is the speed of the speed. Sweet Morgan Leigh (5) will try to keep him honest. The 7 post is tricky, forcing Murrill to send hard to clear.

Key Contenders

Platinumus Maximus (7): Listed at 2-1. Mitchell Murrill has been riding lights out (12% win rate but high ITM). This filly has the highest speed figures in the group.
Sweet Morgan Leigh (5): Consistent runner (4-1). Jose Riquelme takes the mount. If the 7 gets hung wide, the 5 inherits the lead.

Secondary Choices

Broadway Star (1): Draws the rail. At 5-1, she is a must-use in exotics due to the post bias alone.
Wickedly Royal (4): C.J. McMahon/Cardel Cormier connection is dangerous at a price.

Betting Strategy

The 7 is the best horse but draws a poor post for this track profile. The 1 offers the best value.

  • Wager: Win/Place on #1 Broadway Star (Value Play). Exacta Box 1-7.

Selections

Win: Platinumus Maximus (7)
Place: Broadway Star (1)
Show: Sweet Morgan Leigh (5)

Race 4: Starter Optional Claiming

Distance: 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt) | Post Time: 02:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

A 5.5-furlong dash requires pure speed. Guile (2) and Strange Arrange (1) have the inside draws and the early foot to dominate.

Key Contenders

Guile (2): Ben Curtis again. This gelding fits the “Inside Speed” profile perfectly. 2-1 ML.
Strange Arrange (1): Jose Ortiz rides. Ortiz is winning at a massive 29% clip this meet. From the rail, he will likely send hard.

Secondary Choices

We Miss Arlington (6): A solid 8-1 shot. Murrill rides for Rodriguez. Can stalk and close.
Summer Splash (4): Isaac Castillo/Diodoro. Diodoro is heating up.

Betting Strategy

An Ortiz vs. Curtis showdown on the front end. Ortiz (1) is the better gate rider.

  • Wager: Win #1. Trifecta 1-2 / 1-2-6 / All.

Selections

Win: Strange Arrange (1)
Place: Guile (2)
Show: We Miss Arlington (6)

Race 5: Starter Optional Claiming

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Post Time: 02:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Turf routes here have been fair. Tango Mike Mike (1) may try to steal it from the rail, but Unleash The Power (10) has the class.

Key Contenders

Unleash The Power (10): Al Stall Jr. trains. Stall hits at 26% at Fair Grounds. This horse has back class and James Graham knows the turf course well. Despite the wide post, the long run into the first turn allows him to tuck in.
Raising Kane (3): Emanuel Nieves/Desormeaux. Desormeaux runners often improve significantly in their second start of the meet.

Longshots

Sir Liam (7): Brian Hernandez Jr. is a turf specialist. 7-1 ML makes him a great board hit.
Tango Mike Mike (1): Huge longshot (20-1). If the fog keeps the turf soft, his rail draw helps.

Betting Strategy

Unleash the Power is the class, but post 10 is tough. Look for Raising Kane or Sir Liam to upset.

  • Wager: Win #10. Exacta Box 3-7-10.

Selections

Win: Unleash The Power (10)
Place: Sir Liam (7)
Show: Raising Kane (3)

Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming

Distance: 1 Mile 70Y (Dirt) | Post Time: 03:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Hey Boss (1) and Glen Airy (3) are the primary speed. Interlock Empire (8) will try to close.

Key Contenders

Glen Airy (3): The horse to beat (2-1). Brian Hernandez Jr. / Paul McGee. McGee is excellent with route horses. Post 3 is the “Golden Corridor” for dirt routes (63% win rate for posts 1-3).
Hey Boss (1): Larry Rivelli sends this one. Rivelli wins at 26% locally. With the rail, Loveberry will play “catch me if you can.”

Secondary Choices

Interlock Empire (8): C.J. McMahon. Will need a pace meltdown to get there.
Next Level (5): Graham/Desormeaux. A logical piece for the trifecta.

Betting Strategy

This race is a match race on paper between the 1 and 3. The bias heavily favors them.

  • Wager: Cold Exacta 3-1.

Selections

Win: Glen Airy (3)
Place: Hey Boss (1)
Show: Next Level (5)

Race 7: Allowance Optional Claiming (Feature)

Distance: 1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Post Time: 03:45 PM CST

Pace Analysis

Scarlet Poppy (1) stretches out. Wesley Ward horses have lethal speed. From the rail, Paco Lopez will likely send her to the front. Pisciotta (10) will be closing late.

Key Contenders

Pisciotta (10): Trained by Cherie DeVaux (28% win rate this meet). Jose Ortiz rides. She has the best late turn of foot in the field. If the pace is hot, she wins.
Scarlet Poppy (1): Wesley Ward/Paco Lopez. She has been off since July (Woodbine), but Ward is a master of the layoff. She won at Tampa in Jan 2025, so she handles winter turf.

Longshots

Autism Community (7): A winner at Louisiana Downs and Evangeline. Harry Hernandez rides. 10-1 value.
Conch Fried Rice (3): Stidham/Vives. Stidham's barn is cold, but this filly fits on numbers.

Betting Strategy

Pisciotta is the safer play with recent form, but Scarlet Poppy could steal it on the lead if loose.

  • Wager: Win #10. Exacta Box 1-10.

Selections

Win: Pisciotta (10)
Place: Scarlet Poppy (1)
Show: Autism Community (7)

Race 8: Claiming ($15k)

Distance: 6 Furlongs (Dirt) | Post Time: 04:15 PM CST

Pace Analysis

She Has It All (2) has speed and the post. Unified Love (1) also draws inside.

Key Contenders

She Has It All (2): Ben Curtis riding for Keith Bourgeois. 5/2 ML. Fits the “Inside Speed” profile perfectly.
Steal Me Over (8): 6-1 ML. Loveberry rides. Consistent check earner.

Longshots

Honor His Half (6): Mitchell Murrill. A 3-year-old facing older mares can be tough, but she gets weight off.

Selections

Win: She Has It All (2)
Place: Steal Me Over (8)
Show: Honor His Half (6)

Jockey Notes and Insights

  • Jose Ortiz: The dominant force of the meet (29% wins). He is riding aggressively and is a must-use on any horse under 5-1 odds.
  • Ben Curtis: A clear second-best. He excels on speed horses on the dirt.
  • Paco Lopez: A “wild card.” He is currently leading North America in wins for 2025. He is aggressive and will send horses from the gate, making him dangerous on Scarlet Poppy (R7) and Magic On The Mike (R1).

Trainer Notes and Insights

  • Joe Sharp: Leading trainer (26%). His horses are fit and ready.
  • Cherie DeVaux: Hitting at 28%. When she enters a horse in a turf route (like Pisciotta in Race 7), pay attention.
  • Shane Wilson: High volume (10-15% win rate). He often enters multiple horses (e.g., Race 2, Race 5). Look for his “first call” rider or the horse with the better post.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

  1. The “Golden Rail” Daily Double (Races 4 & 6):
    • Race 4: Strange Arrange (1)
    • Race 6: Hey Boss (1)
    • Strategy: Both horses have the rail, early speed, and top jockeys (Ortiz/Loveberry) on a track biasing heavily toward the inside.
  2. Value Play of the Day:Broadway Star (Race 3, #1).
    • Reasoning: In a race with a vulnerable favorite (Platinumus Maximus) drawn wide, Broadway Star sits in the “catbird seat” on the rail at 5-1 or better.
  3. Feature Exacta (Race 7):
    • 10 (Pisciotta) / 1 (Scarlet Poppy).
    • Reasoning: It's a classic “Speed vs. Closer” matchup. If Scarlet Poppy tires, Pisciotta runs her down. If the track is firm, they run 1-2.

Good luck

Tags:

Comments

No comments yet. Why don’t you start the discussion?

Talkback