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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Today features a balanced mix of maiden claiming, claiming, and allowance optional claiming events, heavily highlighting accredited Louisiana-bred runners. The features on the card are the turf sprints in the fourth, sixth, and eighth races, demanding a close look at pedigree and surface pedigree. Handicappers should pay close attention to class drops today, as several trainers are aggressively placing their horses to find the winner’s circle. Please note the scratch information has been factored into the analysis below, removing several key morning-line factors and altering the pace dynamics of multiple races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for New Orleans today is favorable for racing, featuring partly cloudy skies and temperatures hovering in the mid-sixties. Winds are expected to be light, which should not impact the runners down the long Fair Grounds stretch. The main dirt track is expected to be fast. Historically at this meet, early speed holding the rail has shown a slight advantage in sprints, though off-the-pace runners get a fair shake going two turns. The turf course is rated firm with the rail set at 14 feet. Turf sprints here often favor tactical speed that can secure a position just behind the early leaders before tipping out for the stretch drive.
1st Race
Post Time
12:45 PM
Pace Analysis
With the scratches of Bistineau Beauty and Hannah Boo, the pace scenario clears up significantly. Seamus’s Girl draws the inside post and possesses enough early foot to dictate terms from the break. Sweet Aurora G will likely track closely from the outside, keeping the pressure honest but not blistering. The fractions should be moderate, giving the front-runners a distinct advantage heading into the turn.
Key Contenders
Seamus’s Girl is the primary focus. Trainer W. Bret Calhoun excels with Louisiana-bred fillies in these maiden claiming ranks, and breaking from the rail gives jockey Erica Murray the simplest trip. Sweet Aurora G ships in for Patricia West and shows steady workout patterns. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. taking the mount signals intent, and this filly should get first run at the pacesetter.
Secondary Choices
Bouxjee Roux gets Jareth Loveberry in the irons, a positive jockey switch that often yields improvement. While her previous efforts have lacked a late punch, the softer pace dynamic today could allow her to stay involved longer. Betsy Louise on the far outside could pick up the pieces if the top two duel too intensely.
Longshots
Custom Value is a lightly raced filly for Whitney Zeringue. Carrying slightly less weight at 115 pounds, she could hit the board at a price if she improves her gate speed and saves ground along the rail.
Betting Strategy and Angles
The rail bias in sprints and the lack of pace pressure make Seamus’s Girl a strong candidate to wire the field. A straightforward exact wager leaning heavily on the inside speed is the most logical approach. Look to single the inside runner in multi-race sequences.
Selections
Win: Seamus’s Girl (1) – 45% confidence
Place: Sweet Aurora G (4) – 30% confidence
Show: Bouxjee Roux (5) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Betsy Louise (10) – 10% confidence
2nd Race
Post Time
01:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Running Ragged is scratched, leaving a field of seven. Louisiana Jess and Majority Opinion both have early speed, but Louisiana Jess has shown an ability to sustain it better over six furlongs. They should hook up early, creating an average to fast pace. Coattails might try to engage early as well, which could set the table for a mid-pack stalker.
Key Contenders
Louisiana Jess is dropping slightly in class and gets the services of Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr., a top-tier rider who judges pace masterfully. For W. Bret Calhoun, this runner looks primed to sit just off Majority Opinion and take over at the top of the lane. Maybe Eye’ll Call draws well and secures Jose Ortiz. This gelding has competitive speed figures and appreciates a target to chase.
Secondary Choices
Majority Opinion has the rail and the speed to be dangerous. If he secures the front easily, he could prove stubborn to pass. Big Nickel has been consistently picking up checks and is a logical horse to include underneath in trifectas.
Longshots
Custom Cadillac is an older gelding who occasionally flashes late interest. Given the potential for a contested pace, he might come running late to grab a minor share at long odds.
Betting Strategy and Angles
Focus on the class drop and jockey upgrade for Louisiana Jess. Using him over Maybe Eye’ll Call and Majority Opinion in exactas provides solid value. This is a race where leaning on the class of the trainer-jockey combinations is the most reliable strategy.
Selections
Win: Louisiana Jess (7) – 40% confidence
Place: Maybe Eye’ll Call (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Majority Opinion (1) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Big Nickel (3) – 10% confidence
3rd Race
Post Time
01:45 PM
Pace Analysis
With Agami and Sue’s Little Zing scratched, the complexion of this route race changes. Fret No More stretches out and is the controlling speed on paper. Expect Ben Curtis to send her aggressively to the lead to clear the field before the first turn. Miss St. Claire will likely be the closest pursuer.
Key Contenders
Fret No More is strictly the one to catch. A four-year-old facing older mares, she has a tactical advantage with the pace setup. If left alone on the front end, she can steal this. Apriority Catch is a dedicated closer getting Harry Hernandez. She will need a pace collapse, but she is the most reliable late runner in the field.
Secondary Choices
Anita’s Vision draws inside and has tactical speed. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. will have her positioned perfectly in third, saving ground and waiting for the front-runners to tire. Miss St. Claire is a threat if she can pressure Fret No More without exhausting herself.
Longshots
Ann’s Storm is carrying a light 116 pounds and could be dangerous if she wakes up. Her recent form has been uninspiring, but the weight break and route distance might unlock some hidden stamina.
Betting Strategy and Angles
Speed is dangerous in routes when unchallenged. Fret No More should be the key horse in all wagers. An exacta box with Apriority Catch covers the two most likely pace scenarios: a gate-to-wire victory or a late-closing rally.
Selections
Win: Fret No More (6) – 40% confidence
Place: Apriority Catch (8) – 25% confidence
Show: Anita’s Vision (4) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Miss St. Claire (5) – 15% confidence
4th Race
Post Time
02:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This turf sprint features an abundance of early speed. Bet Towinit, Six String, and Luyv all prefer to be on the engine. This guarantees a fast, contested pace, which will perfectly set up the late runners. The rail being out 14 feet means horses drawn outside will need to find cover quickly to avoid losing ground around the turn.
Key Contenders
Rue Lala is an eight-year-old mare who knows exactly how to handle a setup like this. She sits mid-pack and possesses a devastating late kick. Isaac Castillo will look to tip her out at the top of the stretch to run them all down. Bayou Bertie is another late runner who will benefit from the meltdown. Ben Curtis is excellent at timing turf rides and will have her moving in tandem with Rue Lala.
Secondary Choices
Viv’s Wild Aces has tactical speed and might be able to secure the golden trip just behind the leaders. If the speed duel fails to materialize, she is positioned best to capitalize. Box of Pictures is a veteran who always gives an honest effort and can hit the board.
Longshots
Luyv has explosive early speed. If she manages to clear the field without being aggressively pushed, she has a small chance to hold on, though the distance might test her limits against this class level.
Betting Strategy and Angles
Play the closers. Rue Lala and Bayou Bertie are the clear standouts based on the pace projection. Boxing them in exactas and keying them on top of trifectas is the sharpest play. Downgrade the inside speed horses due to the likely pace pressure.
Selections
Win: Rue Lala (6) – 35% confidence
Place: Bayou Bertie (7) – 30% confidence
Show: Viv’s Wild Aces (8) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Box of Pictures (5) – 15% confidence
5th Race
Post Time
02:45 PM
Pace Analysis
California Swag is out. Matinee Idol and Bonafide are the likely pace setters. They should establish a moderate tempo. Purple Heart will sit just off them, ensuring they don’t get away with slow fractions.
Key Contenders
Matinee Idol takes a meaningful class drop for Joe Sharp and gets Jose Ortiz. The four-year-old should find these claiming ranks much more to his liking. Purple Heart has strong recent figures and James Graham knows how to get the most out of him. He will be the first to attack the pacesetters.
Secondary Choices
Express Line draws the outside but gets Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. He has been knocking on the door at this level and is a very safe horse to use underneath. Wizard of Yester has competitive speed but must avoid a wide trip from his inner post.
Longshots
Il Cavallino is lightly raced and gets a significant weight break at 117 pounds. If he can leverage his early speed, he might hang around for a minor award at a large price.
Betting Strategy and Angles
Matinee Idol is the class of the field and the most likely winner. Single him in multi-race sequences and build vertical wagers around him using Purple Heart and Express Line.
Selections
Win: Matinee Idol (1) – 50% confidence
Place: Purple Heart (3) – 25% confidence
Show: Express Line (7) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Wizard of Yester (2) – 10% confidence
6th Race
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Midnight Pranks is scratched. This turf sprint looks chaotic on paper. Saturday’s Gold, Grazen Boy, and Carambaso all want the lead. The pace will be hot and contested, which heavily favors off-the-pace runners.
Key Contenders
One True Gentleman is the logical choice. Jose Ortiz takes the mount for Preston Ferris, and this six-year-old has the perfect closing profile for this race shape. Upturned Brim gets James Graham and will employ a similar stalking strategy. He has back class that makes him highly dangerous at this claiming level.
Secondary Choices
Finster has been incredibly consistent for Chris Hartman. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. will look to save ground and strike late. Fit to Fly is carrying 124 pounds but has the raw talent to overcome the weight if he gets a clean trip.
Longshots
Simplexity drops in class and gets Harry Hernandez. The Irish-bred runner might wake up facing easier competition and is worth a look at long odds.
Betting Strategy and Angles
Focus entirely on the closers due to the projected pace meltdown. One True Gentleman and Upturned Brim are the primary targets. Key them in exactas and trifectas over Finster and Simplexity.
Selections
Win: One True Gentleman (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Upturned Brim (2) – 30% confidence
Show: Finster (6) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Simplexity (8) – 15% confidence
7th Race
Post Time
03:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This is a high-level claiming event for three-year-olds with some serious outfits involved. French Knight, Meelo Time, and Emancipation all possess early foot. Expect a legitimate pace, though none of the riders will want to compromise their mounts early.
Key Contenders
Meelo Time represents the powerful Brad Cox barn. Despite carrying 114 pounds, he has tactical speed and the pedigree to suggest he is much better than his recent claiming tag. Mischief Mania for Joe Sharp gets Jose Ortiz. This horse will likely sit just off the pace and wait to pounce. French Knight for Kenneth McPeek has shown flashes of brilliance and gets Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr.
Secondary Choices
Emancipation is a solid runner who might get caught up in a speed duel but has the heart to fight on. He is a must-use in exotics. Big D steps up slightly in class but has improving speed figures.
Longshots
Bridge Classic is drawn well and could save all the ground. If the leaders falter, he could sneak into the superfecta at a huge price.
Betting Strategy and Angles
This is arguably the deepest race on the card. Meelo Time is the slight preference due to the connections, but Mischief Mania is incredibly dangerous. Box the top three contenders in exactas and use them all in the Pick 4 and Pick 5.
Selections
Win: Meelo Time (3) – 35% confidence
Place: Mischief Mania (7) – 30% confidence
Show: French Knight (2) – 25% confidence
Alternative: Emancipation (4) – 10% confidence
8th Race
Post Time
04:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This allowance turf sprint will be decided on the break. Snare from the rail, Invictus, and To the Chief all want the front. The pace will be swift, demanding late stamina from the winner.
Key Contenders
Vesture sits in a perfect spot. Trained by W. Bret Calhoun and ridden by Jose Ortiz, this gelding will stalk the hot pace and get first run at the leaders. Hit That Review brings European form to the Brendan Walsh barn. Ben Curtis is an expert on the turf, and this horse has immense upside.
Secondary Choices
Snare has the rail advantage and Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. If he breaks perfectly, he might just keep going. Invictus is drawn well and will be prominent early, though he might face pressure.
Longshots
Missed the Turn has late speed and could hit the board if the pace collapses entirely. Tussling Charlie is an underneath prospect at a price.
Betting Strategy and Angles
Vesture and Hit That Review stand out as the class of the field. A cold exacta combining these two is a strong play. Respect Snare on the front end but demand value before backing him to win.
Selections
Win: Vesture (2) – 40% confidence
Place: Hit That Review (5) – 35% confidence
Show: Snare (1) – 15% confidence
Alternative: Invictus (4) – 10% confidence
9th Race
Post Time
04:45 PM
Pace Analysis
With Yakety Yak, Quikonthetrigger, and Star Apriority scratched, the nightcap is wide open. Righteous Freedom and Patek look like the early speed, but neither has been dominant. The pace should be manageable, giving everyone a fair shot.
Key Contenders
Seven Digits drops into a very soft spot and should relish the competition level. Royal Hope gets Mitchell Murrill and draws well. He has tactical speed and should get a clean trip just off the leaders.
Secondary Choices
Roadside Banker has been facing slightly better and could find the winner’s circle with a slight step forward. Patek has speed and might try to steal it on the front end.
Longshots
Imperial Dynasty draws the outside post but gets a class drop. If the trip works out, he can close for a piece. Righteous Freedom is a threat if left alone early.
Betting Strategy and Angles
This is a low-level claiming race where spreading in horizontal wagers is advised. Seven Digits and Royal Hope are the most logical winners, but the race is chaotic. Box the top three in exactas and hope for a clean trip.
Selections
Win: Seven Digits (7) – 35% confidence
Place: Royal Hope (8) – 30% confidence
Show: Roadside Banker (9) – 20% confidence
Alternative: Imperial Dynasty (13) – 15% confidence
Jockey Notes and Insights
Jose L. Ortiz is riding a tremendous book of horses today. He is live in almost every race he enters, particularly leaning on strong turf mounts and key claiming drops for top trainers. Brian Joseph Hernandez Jr. remains a master of pace at Fair Grounds; watch for him to steal races on the front end or time his turf closing rides perfectly. Marcelino Pedroza Jr. is grinding out victories and is heavily trusted by mid-level barns to get the most out of their claiming stock.
Trainer Notes and Insights
W. Bret Calhoun has brought an exceptional string of horses to the track today, primarily focusing on Louisiana-breds where his win percentages are staggering. Joe Sharp is aggressively dropping horses into claiming ranks to secure purses, a sharp angle that bettors must respect. Brad Cox and Kenneth G. McPeek make brief appearances on the card in the seventh race, signaling that their entrants are primed for massive efforts.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The most reliable horizontal sequence today appears to be the late Pick 4, starting in Race 6. Keying One True Gentleman in the sixth and Vesture in the eighth provides a strong foundation. The value play of the day is Fret No More in the third race, as she looks like a dominant lone-speed threat who could be overlooked in the betting pools. Structure your Pick 5 tickets to survive the chaotic ninth race by going deep in that leg while singling Matinee Idol in the fifth.
