Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Welcome to a spectacular day of racing at Gulfstream Park for Friday, December 26, 2025. The day's card features 10 races, highlighted by the $125,000 Rampart Stakes (Race 9) for fillies and mares going one mile on the dirt. The program also features several competitive maiden special weight events for 2-year-olds on both turf and dirt, showcasing potential stars for the upcoming 3-year-old campaign. The Championship Meet is in full swing, and the quality of entries reflects the high stakes of the season.
Weather and Track Conditions
Forecast:
Expect typical South Florida winter conditions with partly cloudy skies and temperatures hovering in the mid-70s. A light breeze from the east is expected, which could aid horses stretching out on the turf course.
Track Surface:
- Dirt: Fast. The main track has been playing fair, though speed has held well in one-turn mile races.
- Turf: Firm. The course has been resilient, favoring horses with a strong turn of foot. The rail is set at 17 feet, which often tightens the turns and can advantage horses saving ground near the inside.
- Tapeta: Fast. The all-weather surface continues to play kindly to closers who can time their move, though tactical speed remains an asset.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Irad Ortiz, Jr.: The reigning Eclipse Award winner continues to dominate the standings. He is booked on several live mounts today, including Herbstreit (Race 1), The Town (Race 6), and Judge Davis (Race 7). His ability to save ground on the turf and aggressive handling on the dirt makes him a key factor in every race he rides. Watch for him to be particularly aggressive in the Rampart Stakes aboard Necessity.
John Velazquez: The Hall of Famer teams up with Todd Pletcher on Scope (Race 1) and Saffie Joseph Jr. on Dazzling Move (Race 9). Velazquez's expertise in rating horses on the lead or sitting just off the pace will be crucial in the one-mile dirt events today.
Tyler Gaffalione: Known for his turf prowess, Gaffalione has a strong book today, including Gotcha (Race 1) and One Magic Philly (Race 9). His timing on the grass is impeccable, and he is a must-use rider in the turf routes.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Todd Pletcher: The Pletcher barn unleashes a well-bred son of Gun Runner, Scope, in the opener. Pletcher's stats with 2-year-olds on turf are solid, but his horses often improve significantly with a race under their belt.
Saffie Joseph, Jr.: With a massive presence at his home track, Joseph sends out multiple contenders in the Rampart Stakes (Race 9). His ability to get horses ready off a layoff or specifically targeting these graded stakes at Gulfstream is unmatched.
Brad Cox: Shipping in for the Championship Meet, Cox sends out Herbstreit (Race 1) and The Town (Race 6). Cox has a high strike rate with shippers and 2-year-olds, indicating these runners are live and well-meant.
Race 1 Analysis
Post Time: 12:20 PM ET
The day begins with a Maiden Special Weight for 2-year-olds going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. This race features several well-bred contenders from top connections.
Pace Analysis
Coach Kain showed good early energy in his debut and, being a son of the speedy Knicks Go, is expected to be forwardly placed. Gotcha and Scope should sit in a stalking position just off the pace. The tempo should be moderate, giving the front-runners a fair chance to hold on, but offering enough pace for a closer to get involved if the leaders tire.
Key Contenders
Scope (7-2): This colt by Gun Runner out of Nasty is trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by John Velazquez. The breeding suggests he will handle the distance easily, and Pletcher's runners are always dangerous in these spots. He has been working steadily at Palm Beach Downs.
Coach Kain: A son of Knicks Go trained by Mark Casse. He finished second in his debut and has the benefit of experience. His sire was a speed demon, and this gelding showed flashes of that talent in his first start. He figures to be the one to catch.
Secondary Choices
Herbstreit: Trained by Brad Cox and ridden by Irad Ortiz Jr., this colt commands respect based on connections alone. Cox is excellent at spotting his young horses, and with Ortiz aboard, he will take plenty of money at the windows.
Longshots
Ambassador Blue: Danny Gargan trains this son of a stamina-influenced sire. With Joel Rosario in the irons, he could be closing late if the pace heats up.
Betting Strategy
Focus on the experience of Coach Kain and the upside of Scope. A small exacta box of these two is a solid play.
Selections
Win: Scope
Place: Coach Kain
Show: Herbstreit
Race 2 Analysis
Post Time: 12:49 PM ET
A claiming event for fillies and mares sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the synthetic surface.
Pace Analysis
This race features plenty of early speed. Wicked Legacy and Mithril are expected to vie for the lead. The rapid pace should set up well for a stalker or closer who can handle the synthetic surface.
Key Contenders
Likely Perspective (9-5): The morning line favorite drops into a realistic spot for trainer Bobby Dibona. With Edgard Zayas aboard, she should get a perfect stalking trip behind the speed duel. Her recent form against better company makes her the horse to beat.
Wicked Legacy: The speed of the race. If she can clear the field early without expending too much energy, she could wire this group. The drop in class is a positive move.
Secondary Choices
Mithril: Another speed threat who will keep Wicked Legacy honest. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes the mount, which is a significant jockey upgrade that could wake her up.
Longshots
Jayana: A closer who will benefit if the pace collapses. At 5 1/2 furlongs, she needs to time her move perfectly, but the race shape favors her style.
Betting Strategy
Likely Perspective looks like a potential single in multi-race wagers.
Selections
Win: Likely Perspective
Place: Wicked Legacy
Show: Mithril
Race 3 Analysis
Post Time: 01:18 PM ET
Maiden Claiming event on the dirt at 6 furlongs.
Pace Analysis
He Be Hoppin and Step Slow show the most early zip. In a race with lightly raced maidens, the one who can break cleanly and control the rail often has the advantage.
Key Contenders
Step Slow (9-5): Trained by Fernando Abreu and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. This colt has shown consistency in morning workouts and finds a soft field to break his maiden. The cutback to a sprint should suit him well.
Lobo Go: Joe Bravo rides for Barry Croft. This gelding has shown late interest in previous starts and should be running on at the end.
Secondary Choices
Holy Dancer: Draws the rail and gets weight off with the apprentice jockey. If he can save ground, he might sneak into the exotics.
Betting Strategy
Step Slow looks solid here. A straight win bet is the recommended play.
Selections
Win: Step Slow
Place: Lobo Go
Show: Holy Dancer
Race 4 Analysis
Post Time: 01:48 PM ET
Maiden Claiming for 2-year-olds on the synthetic going 1 mile 70 yards.
Pace Analysis
Young horses going two turns for the first time on synthetic often results in a slow pace. Not Now Nick has shown the ability to rate and should be in a prime position.
Key Contenders
Not Now Nick (2-1): Another strong contender for the Dibona/Zayas combination. He has shown an affinity for the synthetic surface in training and faces a field with little proven form.
Pillow Fight: Tyler Gaffalione rides for William Walden. This colt has a pedigree that suggests he will improve with distance and surface change.
Secondary Choices
Rebellution: Saffie Joseph Jr. trains. While his form is a bit hidden, the drop into maiden claiming usually signals intent from this barn.
Betting Strategy
Box the top two in exactas. Not Now Nick is the most likely winner.
Selections
Win: Not Now Nick
Place: Pillow Fight
Show: Rebellution
Race 5 Analysis
Post Time: 02:18 PM ET
A low-level claiming sprint for older mares on the dirt.
Pace Analysis
Chaina has blistering speed for this level and draws the rail. She is the controlling speed and will likely try to take them gate to wire.
Key Contenders
Chaina (9-5): The speed of the speed. At this level, catching a lone speed horse on the Gulfstream dirt is a difficult task. Miguel Vasquez is an expert at nursing speed on the lead.
Red Hot Spark: The most likely alternative if the top pick falters. She has tactical speed and can sit second or third.
Secondary Choices
My Lady James: A veteran who can pick up the pieces if the pace completely falls apart, though that scenario seems unlikely given the field.
Betting Strategy
Chaina is a strong win candidate.
Selections
Win: Chaina
Place: Red Hot Spark
Show: My Lady James
Race 6 Analysis
Post Time: 02:48 PM ET
A high-quality Maiden Optional Claiming race for 2-year-olds on the dirt.
Pace Analysis
The Town and Jackpot Cree figure to be part of the early mix. The pace should be honest, testing the stamina of these young runners in the final furlong.
Key Contenders
The Town (8-5): A Brad Cox trainee with Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard. He has been training sharply and this barn hits at a high percentage with debut runners or second-time starters at Gulfstream.
Jackpot Cree: Junior Alvarado rides for Victor Barboza Jr. This colt has shown flash in the mornings and draws a favorable post to stalk the favorite.
Secondary Choices
Gus Swayze: Brendan Walsh/Tyler Gaffalione team up. A solid alternative if the top two engage in a destructive speed duel.
Betting Strategy
The Town looks like one of the best bets on the card. Use him as a single in the Pick 5.
Selections
Win: The Town
Place: Jackpot Cree
Show: Gus Swayze
Race 7 Analysis
Post Time: 03:18 PM ET
Allowance Optional Claiming on the turf at 1 mile.
Pace Analysis
Like the King and Seminole Chief have speed, but Judge Davis has the class and tactical ability to sit the perfect trip.
Key Contenders
Judge Davis (7-2): Mike Maker is the king of these turf allowance/claiming races. With Irad Ortiz Jr. riding, this gelding ticks all the boxes: class, connections, and course suitability.
Seminole Chief: A dangerous runner who can steal it on the front end if allowed to set slow fractions.
Secondary Choices
Sherlock's Jewel: Trained by Shug McGaughey. He will be running late and will appreciate a firm turf course.
Betting Strategy
A competitive race. Judge Davis offers fair value at 7-2.
Selections
Win: Judge Davis
Place: Seminole Chief
Show: Sherlock's Jewel
Race 8 Analysis
Post Time: 03:48 PM ET
Allowance Optional Claiming sprint on the dirt.
Pace Analysis
Mish is a known speedster who will blast from the rail. Back Em Up will have to catch him or press him early. The pace will be hot.
Key Contenders
Back Em Up (7-2): He has the versatility to press or stalk. In a race loaded with speed, his ability to sit just off the flank of Mish could be the deciding factor.
Mish: The one to catch. If he breaks cleanly from the rail, he could lead them all the way, but he will have company.
Secondary Choices
Canuto: A closer who needs a pace meltdown. With Mish and Back Em Up likely ensuring a fast pace, he becomes an interesting use in exotics.
Betting Strategy
Back Em Up has the right running style for this setup.
Selections
Win: Back Em Up
Place: Mish
Show: Canuto
Race 9 Analysis – The Rampart Stakes
Post Time: 04:18 PM ET
The feature race of the day, a $125,000 one-mile dirt stakes race for fillies and mares.
Pace Analysis
Dazzling Move has ample speed and draws the rail, which almost forces John Velazquez to send her. One Magic Philly has tactical speed and will likely track from the outside. The race will likely be decided by who gets the first jump turning for home.
Key Contenders
One Magic Philly (2-1): Trained by Brendan Walsh and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione. She arrives in peak form and has been working lights out. Her ability to stalk and pounce makes the one-mile distance ideal for her. She is the class of the field.
Dazzling Move: The main danger. Saffie Joseph Jr. has her razor-sharp. If she can control the pace without too much pressure, she could steal this on the front end.
Secondary Choices
Sterling Silver: A classy veteran (Grade 2 winner) who always runs her race. She might find the one-mile distance slightly sharp compared to her best sprints, but her class cannot be ignored. Javier Castellano knows her well.
Necessity: The “now” horse. Riley Mott trains this 3-year-old who takes a step up in class. Irad Ortiz Jr. taking the mount is a massive vote of confidence.
Betting Strategy
One Magic Philly is the most likely winner, but Necessity offers intriguing value with Irad aboard. An exacta box of 7-8-1 is a smart play.
Selections
Win: One Magic Philly
Place: Dazzling Move
Show: Necessity
Race 10 Analysis
Post Time: 04:48 PM ET
The finale is a Starter Allowance on the turf.
Pace Analysis
A full field of fillies and mares usually ensures a contested pace. La Cantera and Miss Ellary have speed.
Key Contenders
Mary Marguerite (8-1): A bit of a price play to end the day. David Fawkes is excellent with these types, and she has been running consistently well against similar company.
La Cantera: The speed of the race. If the turf is playing toward speed, she becomes very dangerous.
Secondary Choices
Mysunshinegirl: Draws the rail and will save all the ground. A logical contender for the underneath spots.
Betting Strategy
Look for value with Mary Marguerite to close out the card.
Selections
Win: Mary Marguerite
Place: La Cantera
Show: Mysunshinegirl
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
Best Bet of the Day:
Race 6: #4 The Town. Brad Cox and Irad Ortiz Jr. are a lethal combination with 2-year-olds. He looks superior to this field.
Best Value Play:
Race 10: #7 Mary Marguerite (8-1). In a wide-open finale, she offers great value for a barn that often outperforms the odds.
Recommended Pick 5 Ticket (Races 6-10):
- Race 6: 4
- Race 7: 2, 5
- Race 8: 1, 5
- Race 9: 1, 7, 8
- Race 10: 2, 4, 7
Cost for $0.50 ticket: $18.00
