Laurel Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News, Analysis, Expert Picks, and AI Predictions for November 22, 2025

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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.

Laurel Park hosts a nine-race card on Saturday, November 22, 2025, featuring a range of claiming, maiden, allowance, and stakes events. Key races include the Willa On the Move Stakes for fillies and mares sprinting 6 ½ furlongs and the Dave’s Friend Stakes for older sprinters, capped by the Richard W. Small Stakes for older horses going 1 1/8 miles. First post is Noon ET, with Value Pick 5 wagers available on both the first and last five races. The card offers numerous wagering opportunities and quality fields, highlighting several trainers and jockeys in top form.​

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for the Baltimore area indicate cool, dry weather, with temperatures around 55°F for post time, dropping into the high 30s later in the day. Rain is not expected, resulting in fast dirt and firm turf conditions for the card. The turf rail is set at 52 feet, impacting trip dynamics in turf sprints.​

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Recent trends at Laurel Park suggest a slight preference for closers overall, especially on the wide main track. Turf sprints have shown a notable edge for horses drawn in the middle posts (4 and 5), while outside posts (6-8) are better for extended dirt routes. No strong bias on dirt sprint post positions, though midpack and outside draws have performed well.​

1st Race – Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf, Fillies/Mares 3yo+

Post Time

12:00 PM ET

Pace Analysis

The pace projects to be lively with multiple speed types, including Coda Mia and Ticklers, as well as Aerialist. Expect aggressive early fractions, with closers such as Ariel Moon and Lazy Days set up well if pace collapses.

Key Contenders

Ticklers showed ability against higher-level claimers, adds blinkers, and offers tactical speed. Ariel Moon has repeatedly finished quickly, though tends to run minor awards. Lazy Days was severely hampered last time and merits a rebound with a clean trip.​

Secondary Choices

Coda Mia brings potential to press the pace and hang on for a share. Mun Mun Can Run, if drawing in from AE, is dangerous from off the pace.

Longshots

Buckin’ Right drops in class with blinkers back on, improvement possible. Hot Boss and Sweet and Feisty appear overmatched.

Betting Strategy

With a contentious field, emphasize pace collapse underneath. Consider vertical wagers with closers to run late. If Mun Mun Can Run draws in, include underneath.

Selections

Win: Ticklers

Place: Ariel Moon

Show: Lazy Days

2nd Race – Starter Optional Claiming, 1 Mile, Turf, 3yo+

Post Time

12:28 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Potential for contentious middle fractions led by Bar Fourteen, with Masen and Bode’s Maker prominent. Quick pace would benefit late runners.

Key Contenders

Bar Fourteen is a need-the-lead type; recent win in 1 1/16m here after setting pressured fractions deserves respect. Kendama returns to his preferred surface, could capitalize with a solid closing effort. Be Here hits the board regularly and should benefit from honest pace.​

Secondary Choices

Bode’s Maker brings strong form at age 10, likes the setup, while Tom Hagen and Go to the Kingdom offer exotics appeal.

Longshots

Bill of Rights and Bahama Channel will need improvement; Wonder Water is a deep outsider.

Betting Strategy

Pivot multis on Bar Fourteen/Kendama/Be Here. Spread in exotics as race features price opportunities.

Selections

Win: Bar Fourteen

Place: Kendama

Show: Be Here

3rd Race – Maiden Claiming, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 2yo Fillies

Post Time

12:57 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Knickoletta, Kittyup, and Palpitations should set a brisk early tempo. A late runner may surprise if frontrunners tire.

Key Contenders

Knickoletta brings forward speed and competitive form. Kittyup matches up favorably off a wide trip. Bella’s Password had trouble last time but can improve.​

Secondary Choices

Fastfeld as a live debut, Princess Charming gets a trainer upgrade, and Stylish Gem merits inclusion underneath.

Longshots

Mezzo Soprano could pop first out; She’s a Good Girl projects improvement off class drop.

Betting Strategy

Key speed with exacta savers for runners with prior troubled trips or class drop.

Selections

Win: Knickoletta

Place: Kittyup

Show: Bella’s Password

4th Race – Starter Optional Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Turf, 3yo+

Post Time

1:26 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Tough Workout and One Whirlwind Ride both possess speed; Noah Chance comes off a dirtied-up form but may get a sharp trip off the pace.

Key Contenders

Noah Chance gets class relief and a favorable setup. One Whirlwind Ride should be part of the duel with enough stamina to last. Tough Workout has gameness on the front end; Covert Kat and Vamos Viejo are tactical threats.

Secondary Choices

Declaration Time is a capable closer, and Kbcya Later offers exotics appeal.

Longshots

Bigdaddysboy and Claudee Boy appear overmatched.

Betting Strategy

Box the key speed types with a closer underneath for trifecta value.

Selections

Win: Noah Chance

Place: One Whirlwind Ride

Show: Tough Workout

5th Race – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile, Turf, 2yo Fillies

Post Time

1:55 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Bless Her, Brat Pack, and Dutchman’s Map can provide a fair early pace. Coach Mazzula has been close, stretches speed.

Key Contenders

Coach Mazzula adds blinkers and races out of high-percentage connections. Brat Pack offers pedigree and workouts suggesting readiness at first asking. Honor Thy Cookie’s prior routes suggest she can improve further.​

Secondary Choices

Diamondquist and Uncatchable have upside potential on the stretchout. Squirrely can sneak into exotics.

Longshots

Lake Worth and Flighttown could improve with trip.

Betting Strategy

Use Coach Mazzula and Brat Pack hard; add Honor Thy Cookie and Squirrely in verticals.

Selections

Win: Coach Mazzula

Place: Brat Pack

Show: Honor Thy Cookie

6th Race – Willa On the Move Stakes, 6 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt, Fillies/Mares 3yo+

Post Time

2:25 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Grammy Girl, Takethemoneyhoney, and Gallop d’Hermes will force an honest early tempo. Onyx Ten, Sultry Lass among those who benefit from hot pace.​

Key Contenders

Grammy Girl is proven in tough stakes company. Takethemoneyhoney returns after layoff with undefeated local form. Onyx Ten projects well as a late runner if pace is strong.

Secondary Choices

Sultry Lass deserves consideration, Passage East has a chance if trip works out.

Longshots

Alani and Spencerian have outside shots, Bailintin and Wisconsin Gal appear overmatched.

Betting Strategy

Key Grammy Girl and Takethemoneyhoney in multis, include Onyx Ten as a late threat. Spread underneath for trifectas.

Selections

Win: Grammy Girl

Place: Takethemoneyhoney

Show: Onyx Ten

7th Race – Dave’s Friend Stakes, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 3yo+

Post Time

2:54 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Subrogate, Twisted Ride, and Sunny Breeze figure prominently. Prince of Jericho’s stamina makes him a fresh threat; expect contested fractions early.

Key Contenders

Subrogate steps out of Grade 3 company, should be sharper second off layoff. Prince of Jericho offers tactical ability. Twisted Ride brings sharp recent form.

Secondary Choices

Sunny Breeze and Maximus Meridius have class and speed to be competitive.

Longshots

Uncle Cat and Dean Delivers round out the field.

Betting Strategy

Focus tickets around Subrogate, Twisted Ride, Prince of Jericho. Include value runners in trifectas.

Selections

Win: Subrogate

Place: Prince of Jericho

Show: Twisted Ride

8th Race – Richard W. Small Stakes, 1 1/8 Miles, Dirt, 3yo+

Post Time

3:24 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Secret Zipper and Hittheroadjak could set a steady pace, Barbadian Runner sits a stalking trip.

Key Contenders

Barbadian Runner was gritty in his Maryland Million Classic win and looks best on paper. Hardspun Reason stretches out to preferred trip, offers strong late run. Hittheroadjak returns to dirt, can improve.

Secondary Choices

Phantom Speed and Formal Affair provide depth to exotics.

Longshots

Secret Zipper has pace advantage but may fade late.

Betting Strategy

Single Barbadian Runner in horizontal bets, play Hardspun Reason and Phantom Speed in exactas/trifectas.

Selections

Win: Barbadian Runner

Place: Hardspun Reason

Show: Hittheroadjak

9th Race – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs, Dirt, 3-6yo

Post Time

3:54 PM ET

Pace Analysis

Neverworkedaday and Cruise the Nile hold speed, with Stanza making a strong late presence.

Key Contenders

Neverworkedaday comes off a sharp placing and owns good fractions. Cruise the Nile is well bred for the trip. Stanza may relish the surface switch.

Secondary Choices

And Sum offers value for minor placings, Jack o’ Bite can improve.

Longshots

Chatbot is a pedigree play, Notion in Motion and Karma’s Inthehouse are up against it.

Betting Strategy

Focus exactas and tris on Neverworkedaday, Cruise the Nile, Stanza.

Selections

Win: Neverworkedaday

Place: Cruise the Nile

Show: Stanza

Jockey Notes and Insights

Sheldon Russell is currently the hottest rider at Laurel Park, winning five races last week. Yedsit Hazlewood and Martin Chuan are also winning at high rates, while Jorge Ruiz and Mychel Sanchez are both riding competitively and have solid mounts today. Several jockeys show strong return ratios for particular trainers and angles; watch for these pairings to outperform their odds.​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brittany Russell continues to dominate, leading all trainers in recent weeks and forming potent combinations with Prince of Jericho and Coach Mazzula. Gary Capuano (Onyx Ten) and Graham Motion (Hardspun Reason, Brat Pack) have exceptional rates with runners in stakes and maidens. Kieron Magee is dangerous on surface switches, as seen with Kendama. Bruce Brown, Rudy Sanchez-Salomon, Elizabeth Merryman, and Michael Trombetta all send out multiple live runners with positive return trends.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Vertical exotics (exacta, trifecta, superfecta) offer strong potential in races with competitive fields, especially maiden and claiming events. The Value Pick 5 (Races 1–5 and 5–9) features a low 12% takeout and should be considered for cross-race plays. Consider singling Coach Mazzula in the fifth or Barbadian Runner in the eighth for horizontal bets. Longshots such as Princess Charming in Race 3 and Buckin’ Right in Race 1 offer price potential for deep exotics and win bets. Overall, watch for races with heavy pace setups to favor late runners given recent track trends and weather conditions.​

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