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Mahoning Valley – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the March 13, 2026 card

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Friday's Mahoning Valley card is an eight‑race program built almost entirely around six‑furlong dirt sprints, with one mile maiden special weight to close the day. The mix is primarily low‑ to mid‑level claiming events and state‑bred claiming/allowance races, with two allowance-level races (Races 3 and 7) likely drawing the strongest speed and figure horses on the card. Scratch watch notes several recently scratched runners from prior dates, but as of this writing all listed horses for today appear eligible to run unless new race‑day scratches are posted later by the stewards.

Mahoning's configuration and purse structure typically favor local barns and riders with strong Ohio circuits, which is reflected here in the heavy presence of the Radosevich, Juarez‑Mendoza, Rone, and Sweeting outfits, along with riders like Luis Raul Rivera, Erik Barbaran, Angel Diaz, Jose Bracho, and Luis Alberto Batista. The program includes two Ohio‑bred restricted claimers (Races 2 and 5) and one Ohio‑preferred claiming sPrint (Race 6), plus an Ohio‑preferred allowance sprint (Race 7) and an Ohio‑preferred maiden special weight route (Race 8), making today a very “local form” driven card.

Weather and Track Conditions

Regional forecasts for northeast Ohio today indicate a cool, early‑spring day with showers possible at times, but with long dry stretches and some sun breaking through. Temperatures are projected in the 40s to low 50s with moderate southwest to west winds, typical of March in Mahoning County. The on‑track dirt surface at Hollywood Gaming Mahoning Valley has an engineered base over drainage stone designed to let moisture percolate quickly, allowing the surface to return toward “fast” or “good” relatively soon after precipitation.

Given that design and the forecast of only intermittent showers rather than sustained heavy rain, the most likely scenario is a surface labeled fast or possibly good, with some moisture that can tighten the track and enhance speed. If showers become more persistent than forecast, the track can move toward wet‑fast or sloppy but still remain relatively consistent because of the drainage profile.

Track Bias and Post Position Profile

Recent public bias analysis for Mahoning's six‑furlong dirt sprints points to a mild but persistent lean toward horses with tactical speed drawn in the middle to inside posts. Forwardly placed runners who can secure a stalking or pace‑pressing trip in posts 2 through 5 have tended to perform best, with deep closers and wide‑drawn sustained rallies having a somewhat lower strike rate. The profile is not so extreme that you must toss off‑pace types, but in competitive fields you want horses who can be within two to three lengths of the lead by the time they reach the far turn.​

Because today's races are almost all at six furlongs and the surface should be relatively tight, the existing slight speed bias is likely to hold or even strengthen a bit, particularly in the lower‑level claiming events where many closers lack a powerful finish. Post‑wise, the rail can be a bit tricky when the surface retains moisture and the inside gets cuppy, but on a well‑maintained, draining surface the inside two or three paths are usually fine; still, horses drawn 1 sometimes need sharp gate speed to avoid getting shuffled.

1st Race – Claiming NW4L – 6f Dirt

CLAIMING. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 14900. For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won four races. Three year olds 118, older 126, non‑winners since February 13 allowed 2 lbs. Claiming price 7500. Field of 5.

Horses:
Pounds In Town (1)
Crackle (2)
Holiday Lights (3)
Gamble On Love (4)
Dame Maude Chardin (5)

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:15 PM local.​

Pace Analysis

With only five entrants, pace becomes a game of intent rather than sheer numbers. Holiday Lights (3) and Gamble On Love (4) both project as forwardly placed types, with Holiday Lights (3) likely to show the sharpest early foot given typical Mahoning sprint lines for similar mares. Crackle (2) has some tactical speed and can sit just off the leaders, while Pounds In Town (1) and Dame Maude Chardin (5) profile more as mid‑pack to late runners who will need the top pair to engage early.​

Given the likely track lean toward pace pressers, the mare who can sit second or third in the clear outside and pounce turning for home has the tactical edge. Inside speed that has to fend off pressure can be vulnerable late if the surface has any moisture and plays a little demanding in the final sixteenth.

Key Contenders

Holiday Lights (3) fits the condition well as a five‑time starter at this level range and should be near the front from the outset. Her age (five mare) and typical Mahoning sprint form pattern for such profiles suggest she has the right blend of experience and residual speed to handle a compact group. With Alejandro Gomez up for the Saul Morales barn, she gets a capable local combination that tends to have horses ready in these mid‑level claimers.

Gamble On Love (4) is the other primary pace player, and her four‑year‑old profile suggests she may still have a bit of upside against older mares in a small field. Angel Diaz is an aggressive gate rider on this circuit, and Kevin Buttigieg spots his horses realistically; this pair could be the one to take command if Holiday Lights (3) breaks only evenly. On a tightening surface, this combination can get brave if allowed to control the race through moderate fractions.

Secondary Choices

Crackle (2) offers a more tactical, pressing style, and with Jason Simpson up for Khadeem Galloway she can sit a perfect pocket trip just behind the top pair. If the early fractions get hotter than projected, she becomes the main beneficiary, especially if the inside is not a disadvantage. Her NW4L profile is that of a mare who often runs on for minor awards, making her a logical exacta and trifecta inclusion.

Dame Maude Chardin (5) for Marco Ccamaque with Erik Barbaran tends to do her best work late, and in a small field she can be closer than usual early. She is usable in vertical exotics, especially if one of the main speed players regresses off a tough recent race or hooks pace pressure.

Longshots

Pounds In Town (1) must negotiate the rail draw, and Victor Fernandez will need to work out a trip to avoid being pinned inside behind fading pace. In a five‑horse group she is not impossible to clunk up for a share, but she looks a notch below the top three on surface‑typical speed figures and tactical positioning.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The race sets up as a relatively formful opener. The preferred play is to key Holiday Lights (3) and Gamble On Love (4) on top in exactas, using Crackle (2) and Dame Maude Chardin (5) underneath. Small win value may exist if the board overbets the rail or underestimates the Morales/Gomez combo on Holiday Lights (3). In daily doubles into Race 2, leaning on Holiday Lights (3) as an A‑type and Gamble On Love (4) as a B‑type is a reasonable structure.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Holiday Lights (3)
Place: Gamble On Love (4)
Show: Crackle (2)

2nd Race – Ohio‑Bred Claiming – 6f Dirt

CLAIMING. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 17500. For registered Ohio‑bred three year olds and upward which have not won two races since September 13. Claiming price 6500, winners since September 13 preferred. Field of 7.

Horses:
Condemnation (1)
Wildcat Bill (2)
The Pink Z (3)
El Marro (4)
Midnight Warship (5)
Chief Buckeye (6)
Ray's Empire (7)

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:43 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is an older Ohio‑bred sprint with several veterans who know only one way to go: forward. Wildcat Bill (2), The Pink Z (3), and Midnight Warship (5) all have the profiles of horses that show early or tactical speed regularly at this level. Condemnation (1) can attend the pace from the rail, while Chief Buckeye (6) and Ray's Empire (7) are more stalker/closer types. The early section should be honest to fast, giving late‑running Ohio‑breds a legitimate chance if they are in any kind of form.

Key Contenders

Wildcat Bill (2), with T. D. Houghton riding for Jeffrey Radosevich, is a quintessential Mahoning Ohio‑bred sprinter: forward, gritty, and well‑spotted. Even if he is not the outright speed, his ability to sit just off and apply pressure makes him a logical win candidate in a race where most rivals are aging veterans. His barn's local strike rate, particularly with older state‑bred claimers, is typically among the best on the grounds.

Midnight Warship (5) brings the Gonzalez/Ibarra combination, which has been effective in similar state‑bred claiming spots. He usually attends the pace and can finish if the fractions are not suicidal; in a field where several runners are nine and eight years old, an eight‑year‑old with consistent form can still be very competitive.

Secondary Choices

The Pink Z (3), another Julie Pappada trainee like Condemnation (1), draws well between speed and stalkers with Chelsey Keiser aboard. He has enough tactical foot to secure a good spot and has the kind of grinding style that suits Mahoning's slightly speed‑favoring but honest stretch. Condemnation (1) from the rail with Rocco Bowen can either send hard or sit the pocket; at seven, he may be a half‑step slower early than his younger self, but he remains a strong underneath candidate.

Ray's Empire (7), trained by Emily Szczepanski with Yuri Yaranga, is the designated outside closer and can pick up pieces if the middle‑aged speed horses hook each other. He is a candidate to outrun odds in the lower rungs of verticals.

Longshots

El Marro (4), a nine‑year‑old, requires some forgiveness for recent efforts; his upside ceiling is limited, but veteran Ohio‑breds can occasionally pop when circumstances align. Chief Buckeye (6) is another eight‑year‑old whose best days might be behind him, though his stalking style could still produce a minor share with a favorable setup.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Wildcat Bill (2) and Midnight Warship (5) are the main win keys, with The Pink Z (3) and Condemnation (1) as strong exacta players. Look for any tote overlays on The Pink Z (3) given the Pappada barn's ability to have multiple live entries in the same race. Multi‑race sequences from Race 1–2 should lean on Wildcat Bill (2) as the A‑type coverage, with Midnight Warship (5) and The Pink Z (3) as B‑types.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Wildcat Bill (2)
Place: Midnight Warship (5)
Show: The Pink Z (3)

3rd Race – Allowance NW3L F&M – 6f Dirt

ALLOWANCE. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 26400. For fillies and mares three years old and upward which have never won three races. Field of 5.

Horses:
J Rivers (1)
Mia's Go (2)
Miss Serafina (3)
Letmenowhenurready (4)
Neblina (5)

Note: Neblina (5) has a recent veterinarian scratch noted on February 25 in a 5000 claiming NW2L spot, but is listed here; monitor for any race‑day scratch updates.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:11 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is a compact but competitive allowance for mares with NW3L conditions. Miss Serafina (3) looks like the likely pace presence, with Mia's Go (2) also showing some early foot as a three‑year‑old filly stepping into older company. J Rivers (1) and Letmenowhenurready (4) are more tactical or stalking types that excel sitting just off the leaders, and Neblina (5) profiles as a patient runner. Pace should be moderate but honest, making trip and tactical positioning crucial.

Key Contenders

J Rivers (1), with Luis Raul Rivera riding for Jeffrey Radosevich, fits this condition neatly as a mare who has cleared the N2L hurdle and can now leverage tactical speed from the rail. She has the right rider/barn combination for this allowance level and should be positioned no worse than third early, saving ground. If the inside is good, she is extremely dangerous turning for home.

Miss Serafina (3) figures to control or share the lead, and if she is allowed to dictate fractions without heavy pressure, she can take these gate to wire. Brandon Tapara for Jay Bernardini is a solid local pairing, and this barn often places horses aggressively when they are sharp. Her success hinges on whether Mia's Go (2) insists on the front, leading to a duel.

Secondary Choices

Letmenowhenurready (4), with Bailey Weatherly for Eric Reed, is a stalking mare who can capitalize on any pace meltdown or if the front pair underestimate the track's demands in the last furlong. Eric Reed's horses are typically fit and can finish, making her a key exacta and trifecta player. Mia's Go (2) is the lightly raced three‑year‑old, getting Angel Diaz and a weight break, which gives her an upside angle if she moves forward second or third off the break.

Neblina (5), if running, gets Alexander Chavez for Nestor Rivera and has the profile of a mare who can pass tired horses late but may be pace‑dependent for a win. She is usable underneath in verticals, particularly if the track plays even and not overly kind to speed.

Longshots

Given the small field and allowance quality, none of these mares is a true throw‑out, but the least likely winner profile belongs to Neblina (5) if she needs to out‑kick all the local tactical speed. Still, in five‑horse fields, value in verticals often comes from small positioning differences, so spreading a bit underneath is acceptable.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The J Rivers (1) versus Miss Serafina (3) dynamic is central. You can key J Rivers (1) on top in exactas and trifectas, with Miss Serafina (3), Letmenowhenurready (4), and Mia's Go (2) underneath. If the board offers better value on Miss Serafina (3) due to pace and outside draw, consider dutching small win bets between the 1 and 3. In rolling doubles and pick sequences, lean heavily on J Rivers (1) with Miss Serafina (3) as backup.

Selections:

Selections

Win: J Rivers (1)
Place: Miss Serafina (3)
Show: Letmenowhenurready (4)

4th Race – Claiming F&M – 6f Dirt

CLAIMING. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 20400. For fillies and mares three and up. Claiming price 10000, with weight allowances. Field of 8.

Horses:
Liberty Belle (1)
Je Suis Rapide (2)
Redwhiteandtacos (3)
Sheisthehero (4)
A Little Canela (5)
Mo Co Gold (6)
Miss Fussy Pants (7)
Divine Fashion (8)

Note: A Little Canela (5) and Miss Fussy Pants (7) show recent stewardship scratches from higher‑level races; they appear here in a claiming spot.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:39 PM.​

Pace Analysis

Several in here want to be involved early. Liberty Belle (1), Je Suis Rapide (2), and Redwhiteandtacos (3) are likely to show pace, with Divine Fashion (8) also possessing enough early foot from the outside to join the vanguard. Mo Co Gold (6) and Miss Fussy Pants (7) are more stalker/closer profiles, and A Little Canela (5) plus Sheisthehero (4) can sit mid‑pack. With four potential pace contributors, this race could set up for a mid‑pack stalker with a sustained run.

Key Contenders

Miss Fussy Pants (7) for Nestor Rivera with Luis Raul Rivera aboard looks like a perfect tactical stalker in this scenario. She can sit fifth or sixth early, two to four lengths off, then commence a strong, sustained run in the far turn. Her recent scratch from an allowance spot and placement here suggest the barn wants a confidence‑building win at a realistic claiming level.

Je Suis Rapide (2), with Jose Bracho for Shane Meyers, owns the right speed profile to either lead or sit just off Liberty Belle (1) and Redwhiteandtacos (3). If the track is playing strongly to speed by this point and she shakes loose early, she can wire this field.

Secondary Choices

Divine Fashion (8) with T. D. Houghton for Ricardo Bailey is an outside pace presser, who can either float up to press or tuck in behind the first flight. The outside draw gives options, and the rider is adept at nursing speed around one‑turn trips. A Little Canela (5) for Jay Bernardini and Erik Barbaran is interesting on the class drop angle; if she retains her prior allowance‑level closing punch, she can be very dangerous late.

Mo Co Gold (6) and Sheisthehero (4) both fit underneath as mares who can pass tired rivals late, especially if pace collapses. Liberty Belle (1) and Redwhiteandtacos (3) must prove they can withstand pressure and still finish, making them more volatile win prospects but usable in verticals.

Longshots

None are stone hopeless, but Liberty Belle (1) from the rail and Redwhiteandtacos (3) may be somewhat pace‑compromised if forced into a hard duel through the opening quarter. Both can still factor in trifectas if they catch a breather mid‑race.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Miss Fussy Pants (7) is a prime value‑type win candidate if not pounded at the windows off her barn and rider. Use her as a win key and in exactas over Je Suis Rapide (2), Divine Fashion (8), and A Little Canela (5), and consider a saver exacta or small win bet on Je Suis Rapide (2) if the surface is clearly speed‑favoring. In multi‑race sequences, Miss Fussy Pants (7) is an A‑type with Je Suis Rapide (2) and A Little Canela (5) as Bs.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Miss Fussy Pants (7)
Place: Je Suis Rapide (2)
Show: A Little Canela (5)

5th Race – Ohio‑Bred Claiming – 6f Dirt

CLAIMING. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 17500. For accredited Ohio‑bred three year olds and upward which have not won two races since September 13. Field of 8.

Horses:
Authentic Cowtown (1)
Zakaria (2)
Matthew's Patriot (3)
Ollie's Folly (4)
Orville B (5)
Sweet Lemon Drop (6)
Ilikethat (7)
Stone Cold Cat (8)

Note: Ilikethat (7) shows a recent February veterinarian scratch at Mahoning, but is entered here; check race‑day changes.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:07 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is another older Ohio‑bred sprint with plenty of early interest. Matthew's Patriot (3), Ollie's Folly (4), and Orville B (5) all figure to push the pace, with Zakaria (2) also capable of being close up. Authentic Cowtown (1) is a rail‑drawn nine‑year‑old who can show enough speed to avoid being buried, while Sweet Lemon Drop (6), Ilikethat (7), and Stone Cold Cat (8) figure to stalk or close. With three to four true pace factors, the race leans toward a stalker who can launch from just off the speed.

Key Contenders

Ollie's Folly (4), with Luis Raul Rivera for Penny Rone, fits that ideal stalk‑and‑pounce profile. From post 4 he can sit third or fourth in the clear and make a decisive move turning for home, leveraging both barn and rider strengths with Ohio‑breds. His recent efforts in similar conditions suggest he holds his form well and can finish strongly if not pushed too hard early.

Orville B (5) for Saul Morales and Alexander Chavez is another strong contender who can either attend the pace or sit just behind it. If the pace scenario ends up more moderate than projected, he can be the one who still has something left in the final furlong. His mid‑gate draw gives tactical options.

Secondary Choices

Sweet Lemon Drop (6), trained by Rey Juarez‑Mendoza with Charle Oliveros in the irons, is a classic late‑running Ohio‑bred who can mow them down late when the leaders weaken. He is eight now, but these types can still produce big kicks when conditions suit. Zakaria (2) with Luis Alberto Batista for Susan Yoder is a reliable presence who can secure a forward stalking spot, making him an exacta and trifecta staple.

Authentic Cowtown (1), the tenured rail‑drawn nine‑year‑old with Erik Barbaran for Marco Ibarra, can still grab a share with a savvy inside trip. Stone Cold Cat (8), the ten‑year‑old on the outside with Laureano Sosa for Ivan Calderon, may be more of a fringe player but can pick up a piece if the race collapses dramatically.

Longshots

Matthew's Patriot (3) and Ilikethat (7) are the question marks for win purposes. Matthew's Patriot (3) could get cooked in a speed duel, while Ilikethat (7) comes off a vet‑scratch and may be more of a “watch one” type; both are usable only on the bottom of verticals unless the tote suggests unexpected confidence.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Key Ollie's Folly (4) and Orville B (5) in win and exacta positions, using Sweet Lemon Drop (6) and Zakaria (2) underneath. For trifectas, include Authentic Cowtown (1) and Stone Cold Cat (8) on the bottom. If odds permit, a small win saver on Sweet Lemon Drop (6) is reasonable in case the pace melts down.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Ollie's Folly (4)
Place: Orville B (5)
Show: Sweet Lemon Drop (6)

6th Race – Claiming NW4L – 6f Dirt

CLAIMING. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 14900. For three year olds and upward which have never won four races. Claiming price 7500, Ohio registered foals preferred. Field of 8.

Horses:
Gamboling Ghost (1)
Roundball Rock (2)
Harbour Bridge (3)
Corman (4)
Mexitexafornia (5)
Bohemian Style (6)
Finistere (7)
Cacique Abarrio (8)

Note: Gamboling Ghost (1), Finistere (7), and Mexitexafornia (5) all show recent steward scratches in similar claiming spots, but appear here; check race‑day updates.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:35 PM.​

Pace Analysis

This is one of the day's deeper claimers, featuring multiple horses with recent allowance or strong claiming experience. Harbour Bridge (3), Corman (4), and Bohemian Style (6) appear to have the best early foot, with Mexitexafornia (5) and Cacique Abarrio (8) capable of sitting just off. Gamboling Ghost (1), Roundball Rock (2), and Finistere (7) are more mid‑pack or closing types. Expect an honest to fast pace, with the winner likely being a pace presser that can finish.

Key Contenders

Harbour Bridge (3) stands out off his strong recent record at Mahoning, including wins and top‑three finishes in six furlong sprints on both fast and sloppy surfaces. His past races show him beating or finishing close to several others in here, including Gamboling Ghost (1) and Cacique Abarrio (8), which is a powerful class and form pointer. With Luis Alberto Batista up for Craig Sweeting, he is the most likely winner on paper if he maintains that form.

Gamboling Ghost (1), trained by Jason DaCosta with Fernando Salazar Becerra, has back‑class, having run in higher‑purse allowance races and facing some quality local sprinters. If he gets a clean rail trip sitting behind the pace rather than dueling, he can produce a strong late run and turn the tables on Harbour Bridge (3) if that rival is softened by pressure.

Secondary Choices

Corman (4) with Rocco Bowen for Timothy Hamm is lightly raced relative to some older foes and projects as an improving four‑year‑old with speed. If he reaches the front with reasonable fractions, he could be the fresh face that wires or holds well into the stretch. Cacique Abarrio (8), who has chased Harbour Bridge (3) previously, gets Jefferson Skerrett riding for Jeffrey Skerrett and should be sitting an outside stalking trip, giving him a chance to capitalize if the leaders weaken.

Bohemian Style (6), with Luis Tapara for Lorenzo Juarez, is another pace factor with potential to stick around for a share if he avoids a complete duel. Roundball Rock (2) is more of an underneath grinding type but can get pieces when races fall apart a bit.

Longshots

Mexitexafornia (5) and Finistere (7) are the more volatile profiles. Mexitexafornia (5), coming off steward‑related scratches, may not be fully trustworthy at this point, and Finistere (7) often needs setups that may not materialize if the track leans toward speed. Both are usable on the bottom of trifectas only at this stage.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Harbour Bridge (3) is an obvious win key and likely short price. To find value, consider exactas and trifectas with Harbour Bridge (3) over Gamboling Ghost (1), Corman (4), and Cacique Abarrio (8). For a more aggressive stance, you can use Gamboling Ghost (1) and Corman (4) in small win saver bets, in case Harbour Bridge (3) regresses off his strong recent efforts.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Harbour Bridge (3)
Place: Gamboling Ghost (1)
Show: Corman (4)

7th Race – Allowance NW1X – 6f Dirt

ALLOWANCE. 6 furlongs dirt. Purse 25900. For three year olds and upward which have never won a race other than maiden, claiming, starter, or Ohio‑bred or which have never won two races. Ohio registered foals preferred. Field of 7.​

Horses:
Pallino (1)
Dream On Baby (2)
Improbable First (3)
Mr. Bogan (4)
Cool Couple (5)
Fourdatesforhoco (6)
Just For The Money (7)

Irish analysis pegs Just For The Money (7) as the horse to beat, with Fourdatesforhoco (6) as the main danger and Pallino (1) and Mr. Bogan (4) also in the mix.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:03 PM.​

Pace Analysis

There is legitimate quality speed here. Pallino (1), Fourdatesforhoco (6), and Just For The Money (7) have all shown front‑end or pace‑pressing ability in recent Mahoning sprints. Improbable First (3) and Mr. Bogan (4) can sit just behind the pace, while Dream On Baby (2) and Cool Couple (5) are more likely to be mid‑pack or late. The class level and recent races suggest the early fractions will be sharp but not suicidal; this favors a high‑cruising‑speed type that can keep going.

Key Contenders

Just For The Money (7) comes in off a strong third at a similar level and has multiple prior wins and top performances at six furlongs over Mahoning's dirt, including beating or running close to several quality locals. Probable odds from one foreign line suggest he will be favored around 8/5, reflecting his consistent speed figures and local affinity. With Erik Barbaran aboard for Anthony Farrior, he is extremely well‑spotted to stalk and pounce from the outside.​

Fourdatesforhoco (6), trained by Jill Sweeting and ridden by Luis Alberto Batista, has an impressive recent win and looks like the main danger if he can duplicate that effort. His prior races include beating horses like Harbour Bridge (3) and Gamboling Ghost (1), who appear in Race 6, indicating the form of that race is strong across the card. His tactical speed and proven finishing ability make him a major player.

Secondary Choices

Pallino (1) with Jose Bracho for Jay Bernardini is a consistent type who has won locally and often runs his race at this trip. From the rail, he will likely need to break sharply and either send or secure the pocket behind Fourdatesforhoco (6) and Just For The Money (7). Mr. Bogan (4), with David Haldar for Justin Radosevich, has shown that he can pass horses and hit the board consistently, making him a key exacta and trifecta candidate.

Improbable First (3) for Penny Rone with Luis Raul Rivera is a lightly raced four‑year‑old who has already shown the ability to finish strongly in Mahoning sprints. If the speed horses do too much early, he can be the one rolling late to grab a piece or potentially upset at a fair price.

Longshots

Dream On Baby (2) and Cool Couple (5) appear to be on the lower end of the class and speed spectrum in this group. Cool Couple (5) draws a negative assessment in some external ratings but will wear first‑time blinkers, which can sometimes wake up early pace. Both are primarily deep exotics considerations.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Just For The Money (7) is a legitimate single candidate in multi‑race wagers like the late Pick 3 and Pick 4, given his class and local form. For vertical wagers, key him on top in exactas and trifectas over Fourdatesforhoco (6), Pallino (1), Improbable First (3), and Mr. Bogan (4). For value, a small win saver on Fourdatesforhoco (6), given his likely second choice status, can protect against an outside pace‑pressing takeover.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Just For The Money (7)
Place: Fourdatesforhoco (6)
Show: Pallino (1)

8th Race – Maiden Special Weight – 1m Dirt

MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. 1 mile dirt. Purse 24300. For maidens three through six years old. Ohio registered foals preferred. Field of 9.

Horses:
Silent Cosmos (1)
Total Silence (2)
Just Call Rip (3)
Newark (4)
Caesarea (5)
Daredevil Doug (6)
Lady Midshipman (7)
Poetic Words (8)
Hoby Cat (9)

Note: Silent Cosmos (1) shows a recent trainer scratch from a Turfway Park mile maiden claimer on February 7; he appears here for a local trainer.​

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:31 PM.​

Pace Analysis

At a mile, Mahoning's one‑turn configuration still rewards tactical speed but gives closers more runway than the six furlong dashes. Total Silence (2), Just Call Rip (3), and Newark (4) appear most likely to show early speed, with Caesarea (5) capable of being not far behind. Silent Cosmos (1) and Hoby Cat (9) may be mid‑pack grinders, while Daredevil Doug (6), Lady Midshipman (7), and Poetic Words (8) project as deeper closing or mid‑to‑back runners. Pace should be fair; none appears to be a true runoff type, so the winner will probably be a horse near the first flight who finishes.

Key Contenders

Total Silence (2), with Jose Bracho for Jeffrey Radosevich, is the key horse based on connections and placement. A four‑year‑old colt with likely local foundation, he should sit either on or just off the pace, and the barn's record with maidens at Mahoning is typically strong. From post 2, he has a chance to control the race while saving ground.

Just Call Rip (3), trained by Eric Reed with Charle Oliveros aboard, is another strong contender with a profile indicating incremental improvement over middle distances. Reed spots his better maidens in these kinds of races, and a mile at Mahoning is well within his wheelhouse. If he sits just behind Total Silence (2) and pounces turning for home, he could be the one to graduate.

Secondary Choices

Caesarea (5), an Eric Reed trainee as well, gets Bailey Weatherly, and may function as the “other” barn horse with upside. He might be more of a grinder, but in a field where many rivals are still figuring things out, he can wear them down late. Hoby Cat (9), the five‑year‑old horse for Aaron West with Erik Barbaran aboard, brings maturity and should be running on late if he is fit; his outside draw allows him to avoid traffic and make a sustained move.

Newark (4) and Poetic Words (8), both trained by Michelle Elliott with Chelsey Keiser and David Haldar, respectively, are interesting mid‑price options. Newark (4) can be forwardly placed, while Poetic Words (8) may be better from off the pace, giving the barn two different tactical looks.

Longshots

Silent Cosmos (1) may be a value wild card on the trainer change from a recent Turfway scratch to a Mahoning spot, but his form is more speculative and he may need a start at the track. Daredevil Doug (6) and Lady Midshipman (7) look more like longshot closers that will need a hot pace or multiple rivals to underperform to threaten for the win, though they can grab minor slices if the race collapses.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

The primary win keys are Total Silence (2) and Just Call Rip (3). Exacta and trifecta structures should center on 2 and 3 over Caesarea (5), Newark (4), Hoby Cat (9), and Poetic Words (8). For late multi‑race wagers like the Pick 3 or late double, using both Total Silence (2) and Just Call Rip (3) as A‑type coverage, with Caesarea (5) and Hoby Cat (9) as Bs, balances probability and price.

Selections:

Selections

Win: Total Silence (2)
Place: Just Call Rip (3)
Show: Caesarea (5)

Jockey Notes and Insights

Mahoning's card is dominated by local specialists whose tendencies and barn connections matter as much as raw win percentages. Luis Raul Rivera has multiple live mounts today, including J Rivers (1) in Race 3, Miss Fussy Pants (7) in Race 4, Ollie's Folly (4) in Race 5, Improbable First (3) in Race 7, and possibly others; he is particularly effective on tactical stalkers that sit just off the pace and drift out into clear running late. Erik Barbaran likewise has several key mounts, such as Dame Maude Chardin (5) in Race 1, A Little Canela (5) in Race 4, Authentic Cowtown (1) in Race 5, Just For The Money (7) in Race 7, and Hoby Cat (9) in Race 8, and he tends to ride patiently, trusting his horses' late kick.

Jose Bracho is another rider to watch, with Je Suis Rapide (2) in Race 4, Matthew's Patriot (3) in Race 5, Pallino (1) in Race 7, and Total Silence (2) in Race 8; his ability to judge pace from productive inside and mid‑gate posts is a major asset in sprints. Luis Alberto Batista has crucial mounts like Zakaria (2) in Race 5, Harbour Bridge (3) in Race 6, and Fourdatesforhoco (6) in Race 7, offering a powerful combination of gate speed and finishing strength that pairs well with speed‑leaning track tendencies. Angel Diaz has Mia's Go (2) in Race 3, Gamble On Love (4) in Race 1, and Cool Couple (5) in Race 7, and he is typically most dangerous when allowed to be positive from the break and place his mounts in the first flight.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Several barns dominate today's entries. Jeffrey Radosevich sends out multiple key runners, including Wildcat Bill (2) in Race 2, J Rivers (1) in Race 3, Total Silence (2) in Race 8, and others, and his local record with both state‑bred claimers and allowance runners is consistently strong. Eric Reed has Letmenowhenurready (4) and Just Call Rip (3) plus Caesarea (5), and his horses usually show up fit and ready, especially in longer sprints and routes.

Nestor Rivera's barn features Miss Fussy Pants (7) in Race 4 and Neblina (5) in Race 3, often excelling with F&M types that stalk and finish strongly. Penny Rone has Ollie's Folly (4) in Race 5 and Improbable First (3) in Race 7, both of whom fit her pattern of honest, grinding sprinters that can punch above their weight with the right trip. Jason DaCosta's Gamboling Ghost (1) in Race 6 is dangerous on the drop into claiming company after allowance tries, a pattern that has produced multiple wins at this meet.

Craig Sweeting's Harbour Bridge (3) and Fourdatesforhoco (6) form a barn tandem across Races 6 and 7 with very strong recent form lines, making this stable a focal point of the late Pick 4 and Pick 3 sequences. Jay Bernardini has Miss Serafina (3) and A Little Canela (5), plus Pallino (1), giving him multiple live entrants across the mid‑card and feature allowance, usually well‑conditioned and placed for wins rather than preps.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

From a multi‑race perspective, the strongest potential single on the card is Just For The Money (7) in Race 7, who brings the best blend of class, local form, and projected trip. Harbour Bridge (3) in Race 6 is another candidate for heavy “A” usage, but using some backup coverage with Gamboling Ghost (1) and Corman (4) helps protect against an upset. In the early sequences, J Rivers (1) in Race 3 and Miss Fussy Pants (7) in Race 4 are both attractive semi‑singles or heavy keys, especially if the board offers reasonable prices.

Likely value plays include Miss Fussy Pants (7) in Race 4 and Sweet Lemon Drop (6) in Race 5, both of whom may be overlooked relative to some pace‑prominent runners yet have very favorable setups. Another value angle lies with Ollie's Folly (4) in Race 5, whose strong rider/trainer combination and ideal tactical style may be underappreciated by the public. In the finale, Total Silence (2) and Just Call Rip (3) should be used as co‑keys, but if Hoby Cat (9) drifts to a big price he could offer late‑card overlay potential in exactas and trifectas.

Exotic structures worth considering:

Late Pick 4 (Races 5–8) example (structure, not a ticket recommendation):
Race 5: Ollie's Folly (4), Orville B (5), Sweet Lemon Drop (6)
Race 6: Harbour Bridge (3), Gamboling Ghost (1), Corman (4), Cacique Abarrio (8)
Race 7: Just For The Money (7) as main, with Fourdatesforhoco (6) as backup
Race 8: Total Silence (2), Just Call Rip (3), Caesarea (5), Hoby Cat (9)

Horizontal bettors should watch the early races closely for any stronger‑than‑expected speed or inside bias and adjust accordingly, upgrading front‑end types like Je Suis Rapide (2), Orville B (5), Harbour Bridge (3), and Pallino (1) if the track plays strongly in their favor.

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