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Welcome to a spectacular Saturday of racing at Oaklawn Park. Today’s card features 10 races, headlined by the $150,000 Ring The Bell Stakes, which has drawn a power-packed field of sprinters including local legend Skelly and the classy Banishing. The card is balanced with competitive maiden special weights for two-year-olds and deep claiming fields that offer significant betting value.

The 2025-2026 meet is in full swing, and the racing office has put together full fields that will test handicappers. With significant purse money on the line, expect aggressive riding and sharp performances from the top barns like Asmussen, Cox, and Moquett.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecast: High of 53°F, Low of 27°F. Skies will be clear and sunny.
Track Condition: Fast.
Wind: Light and variable, likely not a factor.

The track surface at Oaklawn has been playing fast and fair during the early stages of this meet. The clear, crisp weather should keep the dirt surface tight and conducive to quick times.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Sprint Races (6 Furlongs):
Recent trends at Oaklawn indicate a shift in the classic “inside speed” bias.

• Outside Advantage: Surprisingly, outside posts (7 and outward) have been performing well, winning at a clip of roughly 40% in recent trends.
• Running Style: Speed is still king. Horses on or near the lead win approximately 40% of the time. Deep closers (coming from 4+ lengths back) often struggle unless the pace is blistering.
• Gap: In fields of 7 or fewer, early speed is even more dominant, winning nearly 45% of the time.

Route Races (1 1/16 Miles):

• Post Positions: The 1 1/16-mile start (using the auxiliary finish line) allows for a fair run into the first turn. Inside and middle posts (1-6) generally perform best. Outside posts can be a disadvantage if the jockey cannot clear and save ground before the turn.
• Running Style: Stalkers and tactical speed horses perform best here. The stretch run at the first wire is shorter, meaning horses need to make their move on the far turn rather than waiting for the straight.

Race-by-Race Analysis

1st Race – Maiden Claiming

Post Time: 12:30 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
In this maiden claiming event, the pace should be moderate. Maritude from the rail may have to send, but Wowsers and Adalene possess enough tactical speed to press the issue.

Key Contenders:

• Jlofactor (3): trained by Ron Moquett and ridden by Evin Roman. Moquett is deadly in these lower-level maiden claimers at his home track. Expect a sharp break and a stalking trip just off the leaders.
• Can’tdealwithit (9): Cristian Torres rides for Adam Kitchingman. The outside draw is a positive here (bias alert), allowing Torres to see the field and pounce.

Secondary Choices:

• Adalene (5): Francisco Arrieta is the defending riding champ and gets the leg up here. This horse drops into a realistic spot and should be prominent early.

Longshots:

• Closdatgate (7): A price play who gets weight off with the bug boy or light jockey. Could hit the board if the pace collapses.

Betting Strategy:
Box the 3 and 9 in exactas. The outside draw for Can’tdealwithit is a major plus in this 6F sprint setup.

Selections:
Win: Jlofactor
Place: Can’tdealwithit
Show: Adalene

2nd Race – Claiming (N2L)

Post Time: 12:58 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Spirit to Inspire and Thirsty Natalie likely vie for the lead. The pace could be hot, setting it up for a stalker.

Key Contenders:

• Miss Tifeye (7): Luis Saez riding for Matt Shirer is a potent combination. The post position (7) hits the sweet spot of the track bias.
• C. C. Foxii (9): Greg Compton does excellent work with claimers, and Ramon Vazquez fits this horse well. The outside post allows for a clean trip.

Secondary Choices:

• Thirsty Natalie (5): Speed threat. If she clears, she could take them gate to wire, but she faces pressure.

Longshots:

• Sthenic (10): Cristian Torres on a price horse from the far outside. If the track is playing to the outside flow, this is your bomber.

Betting Strategy:
Win bet on Miss Tifeye. Exacta box 7-9-10 to capture the outside bias potential.

Selections:
Win: Miss Tifeye
Place: C. C. Foxii
Show: Sthenic

3rd Race – Starter Allowance

Post Time: 01:25 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Tejon Pass and Nat Gas provide the primary speed. Gettinby from the rail will need to hustle to avoid getting shuffled back.

Key Contenders:

• Incursion (5): Mike Maker places his horses aggressively. This gelding fits the class perfectly and should sit a perfect stalking trip.
• Tejon Pass (8): Peter Miller ships in a speedster. From post 8, he can clear the field. If he breaks cleanly, he is the one to catch.

Secondary Choices:

• Miracle Worker (2): Moquett/Saez. Consistent runner who will be running late.

Longshots:

• Cloud Without Rein (6): Norm Casse’s entry. Often overlooked but capable of picking up the pieces if the speed duel heats up.

Betting Strategy:
Tejon Pass is the speed of the speed. Win bet if odds are 5/2 or higher. Exacta 8 with 5, 2.

Selections:
Win: Tejon Pass
Place: Incursion
Show: Miracle Worker

4th Race – Claiming (Route)

Post Time: 01:55 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
A large field going 1 1/16 miles. Global Empire and Rock’n a Halo likely push the pace. With 14 entrants (check scratches), the first turn will be chaotic.

Key Contenders:

• Rock’n a Halo (8): Tom Amoss and Luis Saez. A dangerous team. This horse has the tactical speed to avoid the traffic jam from the middle gate.
• Eldon’s Prince (10): Robert Young trains. Though drawn wide, this horse has back class and can grind out a win at this distance.

Secondary Choices:

• Denington (1): The rail at a route is advantageous if he can save ground.
• Sharp Spark (3): Cristian Torres rides. Always respect the leading rider in a route race.

Longshots:

• Fight’n Ready (4): A grinder who could clunk up for a share of the trifecta at a big price.

Betting Strategy:
Trifecta Key: 8 over 1, 3, 10. The field size makes this a great betting race.

Selections:
Win: Rock’n a Halo
Place: Sharp Spark
Show: Eldon’s Prince

5th Race – Maiden Special Weight (2YO State Bred)

Post Time: 02:24 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Young horses, many stretching out or sprinting for the first time. Expect erratic pace. Makeshift’s Legacy and Honey’s to Blame likely show zip.

Key Contenders:

• Makeshift’s Legacy (8): Steve Asmussen with a 2-year-old at Oaklawn is a near-automatic look. Ricardo Santana Jr. riding adds to the appeal.
• Honey’s to Blame (12): Kenny McPeek’s baby. The post 12 is tough, but McPeek wins with these types often. Look for a strong finish.

Secondary Choices:

• Humorous Saint (11): Ron Moquett entry. Bred for this circuit.
• Lil Trick (7): Luis Saez/Rey Hernandez. Saez doesn’t take mounts on hopeless 2-year-olds.

Longshots:

• Best Flat Out (13): If he draws in, watch the tote board.

Betting Strategy:
Win bet on Makeshift’s Legacy. He likely has the foundation to handle this field.

Selections:
Win: Makeshift’s Legacy
Place: Honey’s to Blame
Show: Lil Trick

6th Race – Claiming

Post Time: 02:53 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Tahoe Sunrise and Cold as Hell are the speed. Payne is a veteran closer who needs them to go fast.

Key Contenders:

• Tahoe Sunrise (2): Norm Casse/Santana. Should be on the lead or sitting second. The one to beat.
• Payne (1): Old timer who loves the local surface. The rail draw suits his late-running style if the rail is fair.

Secondary Choices:

• American Xperiment (8): Drops in class or finds a suitable level here. Esquivel is a solid finisher.
• Prayforpeace (6): Luis Saez riding. Consistent check earner.

Longshots:

• Got Thunder (5): If he draws in, he has back class.

Betting Strategy:
Exacta Box 1-2. Classic Speed (2) vs. Closer (1) matchup.

Selections:
Win: Tahoe Sunrise
Place: Payne
Show: American Xperiment

7th Race – Maiden Special Weight (2YO Open)

Post Time: 03:22 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
High-quality maiden race. Into Battle and Bedeviled will take plenty of money and show speed.

Key Contenders:

• Into Battle (12): Brad Cox and Luis Saez. A dynamic duo with 2-year-olds. The outside post is less of an issue for a horse with high cruising speed.
• Bedeviled (11): Asmussen/Santana. Likely the main danger to the Cox runner.

Secondary Choices:

• I’m Worthy (1): McPeek on the rail. Will save all the ground.
• Hoss N Boss (7): Chris Hartman is excellent with sprinters. Bejarano riding is a plus.

Longshots:

• Ramajay (14): Saffie Joseph Jr. ships in. If this horse draws in from the AE list or runs from outside, he’s a live longshot given the connections.

Betting Strategy:
Exacta 12-11. This looks like a two-horse race on paper between the super-trainers.

Selections:
Win: Into Battle
Place: Bedeviled
Show: Hoss N Boss

8th Race – Ring The Bell Stakes

Post Time: 03:52 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Skelly (4) is one of the fastest horses in the country. He will go. Durante (2) also has speed but may have to concede to Skelly. Tejano Twist (3) will be dead last early, hoping for a meltdown.

Key Contenders:

• Skelly (4): The local hero. He has won 10 of 12 at Oaklawn. Despite recent gate issues, he is the class of the field. If he breaks, he wins. It’s that simple.
• Banishing (7): David Jacobson’s runner is versatile. He can press Skelly or sit off him. Drawn perfectly in the 7 hole to stalk.

Secondary Choices:

• Tejano Twist (3): The ultimate course horse for the exotics. He will be flying late. If Skelly and Durante duel into submission, he picks up the pieces.
• Durante (2): Has beaten Skelly before (Aristides Stakes). Must be respected.

Longshots:

• Roll On Big Joe (6): Coming off a nice win, but this is a class hike against monsters.

Betting Strategy:
The play is Skelly. However, if you believe the gate issues are unresolved, Banishing is the value play.
Trifecta: 4 / 3,7 / 2,3,7.

Selections:
Win: Skelly
Place: Banishing
Show: Tejano Twist

9th Race – Maiden Special Weight (2YO)

Post Time: 04:20 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Another split of the maiden special weight. Exhibition and Predators’ Ball look fast.

Key Contenders:

• Exhibition (9): Asmussen’s second division hope. Johan Rosado rides.
• Himothy (2): Moquett/Saez. The inside draw is okay for a horse that might stalk.

Secondary Choices:

• Spirit of Royal (10): Dallas Stewart/Arrieta. A sneaky good combination at a price.
• Fatguyinlittlecoat (3): Mike Maker. Name alone will attract bets, but Maker is dangerous with juveniles.

Longshots:

• Baby Vino (7): Lindsay Schultz is an up-and-coming trainer.

Betting Strategy:
Win bet on Exhibition.

Selections:
Win: Exhibition
Place: Himothy
Show: Spirit of Royal

10th Race – Allowance

Post Time: 04:47 PM CST

Pace Analysis:
Viking and Raise the Bar (both potential Asmussen/Morse speeds) will dictate terms.

Key Contenders:

• Ga Mo Tak (12): Brad Cox/Saez. This Chilean import or route-to-sprint cutback (check specific form) fits the allowance condition well. Cox in the nightcap is a profitable angle.
• Raise the Bar (14): Asmussen. If he draws in, he’s a major player.

Secondary Choices:

• Turn Up the Trees (6): David Jacobson. Cristian Torres rides. Consistent.
• Viking (3): Randy Morse. Good speed, likely fades late but holds for a share.

Longshots:

• Dual Monarchy (4): Robert Cline/Kelsi Harr. A local connection that often blows up the tote board in the last race.

Betting Strategy:
Ga Mo Tak to close out the card.

Selections:
Win: Ga Mo Tak
Place: Turn Up the Trees
Show: Raise the Bar

Jockey Notes and Insights

• Francisco Arrieta: The defending champion (tied or outright depending on the metric) is riding with extreme confidence. He excels on prominent speed horses. Watch him in Race 1 (Adalene) and Race 6 (Lundberg/Payne).
• Ricardo Santana Jr.: He has reunited with Steve Asmussen for key mounts, specifically Skelly (Race 8). This rekindled partnership is a dangerous signal to the rest of the colony.
• Cristian Torres: A powerhouse rider who rides the “outside path” bias better than anyone. He is lethal on stalking types in the 6F sprints.
• Luis Saez: One of the best gate riders in the world. His presence on 2-year-olds for Cox and Moquett (e.g., Race 7) significantly upgrades those horses’ chances.

Trainer Notes and Insights

• Steve Asmussen: He runs his horses into shape, but his “A” team at Oaklawn is usually ready to fire immediately. Any Asmussen starter in a Maiden Special Weight (Races 5, 7, 9) must be used in multi-race wagers.
• Brad Cox: Dominant in routes and 2-year-old races. He spots his horses aggressively. Into Battle (Race 7) and Ga Mo Tak (Race 10) look like “spot plays.”
• David Jacobson: A trainer who ships proven, classy horses to Oaklawn. His horses often look classier than the local stock. Banishing (Race 8) is a prime example.
• Ron Moquett: The “Mayor of Oaklawn.” His horses often outperform their odds at this track specifically.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

1. The “Skelly” Double (Race 8-9):
Skelly (Race 8) is the most likely winner on the card. Single him in the first leg of the Late Double and spread in Race 9 (Maidens) to try and catch a price.

• Wager: Double 4 / 2,9,10.

2. The Outside Bias Exacta (Sprint Races):
In the 6-furlong sprints (Races 1, 2, 6, 10), look for horses drawn in posts 8-14. If they are 5-1 or higher, box them with the favorite.

• Spot Play: Race 2, box 7-9-10.

3. The “Cox/Saez” Angle:
In Race 7, Into Battle (12) is a standout. The wide draw might scare off casual money, giving you better odds on a horse that is likely much the best.

• Wager: Win on #12 (Race 7).