Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 6 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Bid turn; weakened. Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.4 pts: [56, 68, 48, 63, 67]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 34.2387 (8/9) CatBoost: 32.3447 (8/9) XGB: 39.055 (6/9) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 5.47 Fair Odds: 8.84 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate. Big last-race effort (94) — 13 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (4000%).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 70 days. Trip note from last race: Bumped; crowded. No workout in last 30 days despite 70 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (350 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at TUP on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.5 pts: [94, 77, 98, 69, 66]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 19.8069 (3/4) CatBoost: 64.7045 (3/4) XGB: 70.7032 (2/4) ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: 4.93 Fair Odds: 3.80 (7/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | F |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | F |
| Turf Speed | B | D |
| Distance Speed | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | F |
| Route FPS | B | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | F |
| Mid Pace | B | F |
| Late Pace | B | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (37%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (35%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 74). Fourth race back from a 46-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a sprint to a route today. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (5 of 6 starts). Trip note from last race: 5w turn; mild gain. No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 39.4625 (7/9) CatBoost: 33.3404 (7/9) XGB: 34.23 (7/9) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.74 Fair Odds: 10.87 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (29%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Rail early;late energy. Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.8 pts: [60, 64, 68, 32, 66]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 41.3034 (6/9) CatBoost: 37.348 (6/9) XGB: 25.959 (8/9) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 2.16 Fair Odds: 8.53 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (34%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Rail trip; flattened. No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.1 pts: [61, 52, 74, 60, 66]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 57.5506 (5/9) CatBoost: 43.1682 (5/9) XGB: 45.3644 (5/9) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 1.41 Fair Odds: 9.26 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (57%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (35%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 74 vs field 70).
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). Trip note from last race: Rated wide; retreated. No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.8 pts: [47, 58, 75, 46, 73]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 30.6995 (9/9) CatBoost: 21.9624 (9/9) XGB: 25.5787 (9/9) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 4.18 Fair Odds: 10.28 (9/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (29%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (3333%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (5 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. Trip note from last race: Wide; lacked response. Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs).
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 4.56 Fair Odds: 11.30 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (31%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 82 vs field 74). Fourth race back from a 51-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. Strong speed 2 back (64), modest dip last out (57) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a sprint to a route today. 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (4 of 5 starts). Trip note from last race: Vied 2w; weakened. No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 65.3437 (4/9) CatBoost: 48.6477 (4/9) XGB: 48.8065 (4/9) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: -1.82 Fair Odds: 10.24 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($17,500 → $7,500). Speed average (73) well above field median (65). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 16 wins from 53 starts (30%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 81 vs field 74).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 92 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Bobbled after brk;2p. Outside post (8) in a large field of 10 horses. No workout in last 30 days despite 92 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Dropping in class ($7,500 vs last $17,500) after a 92-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Returning from 92-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.1 pts: [74, 65, 66, 80, 83]) — unpredictable performer. First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: AQU). Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 100 (1/9) CatBoost: 100 (1/9) XGB: 100 (1/9) ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -16.35 Fair Odds: 7.00 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 55-day layoff with a recent workout. Speed average (70) well above field median (65). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 5 wins from 18 starts (28%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 80 vs field 74).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 55 days. Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Vied; clear; weakened. Outside post (9) in a large field of 10 horses. Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 71.3962 (3/9) CatBoost: 68.9715 (3/9) XGB: 50.3528 (3/9) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -0.65 Fair Odds: 7.44 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 8 starts (25%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 31 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Hopped; wide; rally. Outside post (10) in a large field of 10 horses. Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. No workout in last 30 days despite 31 days since last race. Dropping in class ($7,500 vs last $9,000) after a 31-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. Returning from 31-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. Trainer 'SERVIS J TYLER' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 73.5752 (2/9) CatBoost: 71.559 (2/9) XGB: 61.1181 (2/9) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.70 Fair Odds: 8.15 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). Career-best speed figure (59) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (36%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (5 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). Moving from a route to a sprint today. Poor record at this track (0 wins from 8 starts). Trip note from last race: Caught stopping rivals. 0 wins from post 1 in 3 recent starts. No workout in last 30 days despite 26 days since last race. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.7 pts: [37, 59, 41, 53, 39]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 43.8667 (5/8) CatBoost: 34.4097 (5/8) XGB: 22.482 (6/8) ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 0.20 Fair Odds: 11.88 (11/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | F |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). Big last-race effort (52) — 19 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (45) well below field median (52). Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). Trip note from last race: Chased; faded. Consistently breaks behind post position (4 of last 5 starts). Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.8 pts: [52, 23, 26, 51, 44]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. Trainer 'COLETTI EDWARD J' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 19.2084 (8/8) CatBoost: 28.6632 (6/8) XGB: 9.1099 (8/8) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 6.08 Fair Odds: 7.87 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | D |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (61) well above field median (52). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (42%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 9 starts (33%). Equipment change today (code: 1). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 262-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a route to a sprint today. Trip note from last race: Stalked wide; empty. No workout in last 30 days despite 26 days since last race. Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($30,000 → $16,000 → $10,000). Carries 5 lbs less than field median (120 lbs vs median 125 lbs). Both speed figures (66→59→51) AND claiming price ($30,000→$16,000→$10,000) have declined in each of last 3 starts.
LGBM: 79.5608 (2/8) CatBoost: 92.2533 (2/8) XGB: 100 (1/8) ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -9.33 Fair Odds: 7.71 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (62) well above field median (52). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (29%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (35%). In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 78 vs field 68). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 75 vs field 66). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Showed fighting spirit in last race — maiden angle (trip: Bumped start; rallied).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Bumped start; rallied. Last race was career-best speed (69) — bounce risk after peak effort. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 76.7672 (3/8) CatBoost: 83.0599 (3/8) XGB: 68.3238 (3/8) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.87 Fair Odds: 7.15 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. One gate workout in recent training — sharpness signal from the gate.
⚠ Concerns:First-time starter - no previous race record. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. First time at today's distance. Has never raced on dirt surface.
LGBM: 24.479 (7/8) CatBoost: 17.5759 (8/8) XGB: 17.1398 (7/8) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 5.48 Fair Odds: 8.37 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (40%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). Trip note from last race: Outrun early. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). Post 7 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.3 pts: [56, 36, 67, 53, 48]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. Trainer 'COLETTI EDWARD J' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 31.1927 (6/8) CatBoost: 21.3703 (7/8) XGB: 27.728 (5/8) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 6.13 Fair Odds: 7.82 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | B | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | F |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 40-day layoff with a recent workout. Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $10,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (33%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (3333%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 77 vs field 68). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 49-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. Strong speed 2 back (50), modest dip last out (44) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 40 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (46) well below field median (52). Moving from a route to a sprint today. 0 wins from 6 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 14 starts). Trip note from last race: Inside; no response. Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $16,000) after a 40-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (118 lbs vs median 125 lbs). Post 8 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.30 Fair Odds: 10.75 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | F |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Big last-race effort (59) — 13 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (42%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). Trip note from last race: Chased; belatedly. Post 9 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.7 pts: [59, 39, 43, 56, 64]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 68.9091 (4/8) CatBoost: 60.4444 (4/8) XGB: 50.8938 (4/8) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 0.67 Fair Odds: 6.96 (6/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | D |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($40,000 → $25,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 3 wins from 12 starts (25%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). Trip note from last race: Forced pace; edged off. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 6 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 72.4969 (4/5) CatBoost: 48.5514 (4/5) XGB: 22.698 (5/5) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.81 Fair Odds: 5.36 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | A |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Career-best speed figure (85) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($12,500 → $25,000). Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: 3-4w;bid 1/4;dueled. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: TP).
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 5.8444 (5/5) XGB: 0 ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 5.54 Fair Odds: 5.82 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | B |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | C |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (88) well above field median (80). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). Career-best speed figure (102) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). In the money in last 8 consecutive starts. Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. Track specialist — 3 wins from 6 starts here (50%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 95 vs field 86). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 84 vs field 78). Fourth race back from a 46-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. Strong speed 2 back (102), modest dip last out (91) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Dueled inside; dug in. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 100 (1/5) CatBoost: 85.0844 (2/5) XGB: 48.6028 (2/5) ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.25 Fair Odds: 4.19 (7/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 40-day layoff with a recent workout. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (42%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (34%). Won last 2 consecutive starts. 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. Track specialist — 3 wins from 8 starts here (38%).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 40 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (69) well below field median (80). Trip note from last race: Vied inside; dug in. Last race was career-best speed (79) — bounce risk after peak effort. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Returning from 40-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs).
LGBM: 40.6362 (5/5) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 24.7478 (4/5) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 3.64 Fair Odds: 5.51 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | B |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | D | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 53-day layoff with a recent workout. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 10 wins from 30 starts (33%). Big last-race effort (95) — 16 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 53 days. Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (8 of 10 starts). Trip note from last race: Ins;steady hand ride. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Dropping in class ($25,000 vs last $30,000) after a 53-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.5 pts: [95, 77, 91, 69, 82]) — unpredictable performer. Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 89.799 (3/5) CatBoost: 100 (1/5) XGB: 100 (1/5) ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -7.93 Fair Odds: 4.15 (7/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | A |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). Career-best speed figure (75) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Strong speed 2 back (78), modest dip last out (69) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($15,000 → $25,000). Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (56) well below field median (61). 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). Trip note from last race: Inside; bid; up place. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.0 pts: [69, 78, 75, 55, 51]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 51.8644 (5/6) CatBoost: 50.2932 (4/6) XGB: 64.5938 (4/6) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 4.12 Fair Odds: 6.38 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Speed | C | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (37%). Career-best speed figure (74) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 81). Showed fighting spirit in last race — maiden angle (trip: Led; faded; came again).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 9 starts). Trip note from last race: Led; faded; came again. No workout in last 30 days despite 25 days since last race. 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 88.6213 (3/6) CatBoost: 84.1106 (3/6) XGB: 80.7215 (2/6) ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.99 Fair Odds: 5.58 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 53-day layoff with a recent workout. Significantly better on off tracks (off: 57 vs fast: 46). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Career-best speed figure (46) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Equipment change today (code: 1). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). Strong speed 2 back (57), modest dip last out (45) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 97 vs field 81).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 53 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (48) well below field median (61). Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Vied ins pair;weakened. Returning from 53-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot.
LGBM: 61.7975 (4/6) CatBoost: 49.4137 (5/6) XGB: 57.4072 (5/6) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 2.64 Fair Odds: 5.78 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | F | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (70) well above field median (61). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). In the money in last 5 consecutive starts. Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 78 vs field 72). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 75 vs field 68). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($16,000 → $25,000). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 5 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Wide; willingly. Rising in class ($16,000 → $25,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. 0 wins from 8 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 76.1949 (3/6) ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -1.56 Fair Odds: 4.79 (9/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). Big last-race effort (73) — 9 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). In the money in last 3 consecutive starts. Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 68). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 61-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 8 starts). Trip note from last race: Bid turn; outfinished. Last race was career-best speed (73) — bounce risk after peak effort. 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. Speed improved +10 pts then +4 pts in last 2 starts (59 → 69 → 73) — trainer is progressively building fitness.
LGBM: 98.669 (2/6) CatBoost: 90.7561 (2/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.81 Fair Odds: 5.49 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 4 wins from 12 starts (33%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 78-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($15,000 → $25,000). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). Moving from a route to a sprint today. Trip note from last race: Trailed 5p; outrun. Rising in class ($15,000 → $25,000) after finishing 10 last out — double negative. 0 wins from 6 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: TP). Trainer 'SOLIS JACINTO' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 5.04 Fair Odds: 7.65 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (24%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (36%).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (52) well below field median (61). Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Vied btwn; gave way. No workout in last 30 days despite 25 days since last race. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 18.9 pts: [47, 60, 72, 22, 58]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 48.9211 (6/6) CatBoost: 20.53 (6/6) XGB: 29.7392 (6/6) ML: 10.00 (9/1) Overlay %: 4.55 Fair Odds: 7.16 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Finish Pos | C | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (67) well above field median (60). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (35%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 90 vs field 84).
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 7 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 5 starts). Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (7 of 7 starts). Trip note from last race: Dueled winner; stopped. Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.9 pts: [49, 54, 68, 70, 74]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 17.237 (7/7) CatBoost: 52.6469 (3/7) XGB: 76.5187 (3/7) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 2.91 Fair Odds: 7.25 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | B | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate. Big last-race effort (70) — 14 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (31%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Trailed; late energy. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Consistently runs wide at the first call (4 of last 5 starts). Last race was career-best speed (70) — bounce risk after peak effort. Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 6 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 16.1 pts: [70, 56, 74, 38, 42]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 13.1853 (7/7) XGB: 0 ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.50 Fair Odds: 9.13 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (27%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (2537%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 12 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Outside; flattened. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 25.3309 (6/7) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 74.2922 (4/7) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 6.80 Fair Odds: 7.35 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $7,500). Speed average (73) well above field median (60). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 20 wins from 45 starts (44%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 79 vs field 70). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a route to a sprint today. Switching from turf to dirt today. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Saved ground; tired. 0 wins from post 4 in 4 recent starts. First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: GP). Trainer 'PINO MICHAEL V' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 57.5381 (2/7) CatBoost: 100 (1/7) XGB: 86.857 (2/7) ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.99 Fair Odds: 5.79 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | F |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Mild rally; up show. Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 35.5006 (5/7) CatBoost: 36.228 (5/7) XGB: 49.8234 (5/7) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 1.76 Fair Odds: 6.35 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (27%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (34%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 70). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Strong speed 2 back (68), modest dip last out (61) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 7 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Trailed; passed faders. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 45.7798 (3/7) CatBoost: 32.7501 (6/7) XGB: 43.6289 (6/7) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 2.74 Fair Odds: 7.37 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($12,500 → $7,500). Significantly better on off tracks (off: 71 vs fast: 58). Career-best speed figure (58) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 48-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Off heels1/4;gave way. No workout in last 30 days despite 16 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: CT).
LGBM: 37.0992 (4/7) CatBoost: 36.8079 (4/7) XGB: 20.154 (7/7) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -2.87 Fair Odds: 8.14 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | C | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | D |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. Fourth race back from a 57-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Vied btwn; angled out. Has won at today's distance (1430 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). Post 8 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.0 pts: [70, 68, 66, 71, 49]) — unpredictable performer. Trainer 'SERVIS J TYLER' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 100 (1/7) CatBoost: 94.8687 (2/7) XGB: 100 (1/7) ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.84 Fair Odds: 5.74 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | C |
| Turf Speed | B | C |
| Distance Speed | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($7,500 → $5,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (38%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (65) well below field median (71). 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. Trip note from last race: Close two path; faded. Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs).
LGBM: 5.6211 (9/9) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 22.3342 (7/9) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 6.33 Fair Odds: 8.12 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | A | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (34%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 80). Strong speed 2 back (68), modest dip last out (60) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (4 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a sprint to a route today. 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 6 starts). Trip note from last race: Chased 4w; faded. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 31.0466 (7/9) CatBoost: 15.7511 (8/9) XGB: 22.7173 (6/9) ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.87 Fair Odds: 10.66 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (28%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (31%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 88 vs field 80).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). Moving from a sprint to a route today. Trip note from last race: Inside; mild rally ins. No workout in last 30 days despite 28 days since last race. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.0 pts: [70, 57, 72, 83, 79]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 27.3677 (8/9) CatBoost: 30.1173 (5/9) XGB: 13.1325 (8/9) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 3.54 Fair Odds: 11.24 (10/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | D |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | B | F |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (41%). Career-best speed figure (81) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (35%).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 82 days. Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). Trip note from last race: 5w early; 3w; gave way. Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 20.4 pts: [40, 82, 60, 35, 73]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 39.1187 (6/9) CatBoost: 16.6326 (7/9) XGB: 7.5882 (9/9) ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.95 Fair Odds: 9.36 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | F |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%).
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a sprint to a route today. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). Trip note from last race: Alter 3/16; rallied 3p. Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.2 pts: [72, 73, 77, 56, 66]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 9 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 84.8409 (2/9) CatBoost: 58.2543 (2/9) XGB: 45.9587 (3/9) ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -7.02 Fair Odds: 9.58 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | A |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (47%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (31%).
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 9 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 9 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Inside; no threat. Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 58.0977 (5/9) CatBoost: 28.3384 (6/9) XGB: 23.3293 (5/9) ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 5.20 Fair Odds: 8.17 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | C | F |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (36%). Track specialist — 2 wins from 7 starts here (29%).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 42 days. Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (62) well below field median (71). Trip note from last race: 4w early; gave way. No workout in last 30 days despite 42 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 18.8 pts: [26, 72, 57, 56, 72]) — unpredictable performer. Trainer 'SERVIS J TYLER' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 4.0544 (9/9) XGB: 0 ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.23 Fair Odds: 11.61 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($7,500 → $5,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (32%). Strong speed 2 back (77), modest dip last out (68) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 6 recent starts). Poor record at this track (0 wins from 7 starts). Trip note from last race: Dueled; weakened late. Outside post (8) in a large field of 10 horses. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 12.4 pts: [68, 77, 56, 90, 73]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 71.3037 (3/9) CatBoost: 43.3493 (4/9) XGB: 46.4935 (2/9) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: -0.15 Fair Odds: 8.58 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | C |
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 40-day layoff with a recent workout. Dropping in class today ($7,500 → $5,000). Speed average (79) well above field median (71). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 10 wins from 30 starts (33%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). Track specialist — 2 wins from 6 starts here (33%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 86 vs field 80). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 75). Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (75) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 40 days. Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). Moving from a sprint to a route today. Trip note from last race: 3w turn;no stretch bid. Outside post (9) in a large field of 10 horses. Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. Dropping in class ($5,000 vs last $7,500) after a 40-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Returning from 40-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 100 (1/9) CatBoost: 100 (1/9) XGB: 100 (1/9) ML: 1.60 (9/5) Overlay %: -15.91 Fair Odds: 6.94 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | D |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (78) well above field median (71). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). Track specialist — 8 wins from 28 starts here (29%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 80).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: 5w early; 3w; tired. Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). Outside post (10) in a large field of 10 horses. Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($10,000 → $7,500 → $5,000). Has won at today's distance (1870 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 6 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 63.8137 (4/9) CatBoost: 52.6727 (3/9) XGB: 26.0913 (4/9) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -1.04 Fair Odds: 7.84 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | A | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 53-day layoff with a recent workout. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 16 wins from 53 starts (30%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 74 vs field 67). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 53 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). Unproven on dirt surface (2 starts). Trip note from last race: Lagged; lacked rally. Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 11.109 (6/7) CatBoost: 47.662 (5/7) XGB: 45.9879 (4/7) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 4.39 Fair Odds: 6.60 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Finish Pos | D | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 38-day layoff with a recent workout. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). Big last-race effort (68) — 17 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 41 vs field 32). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 38 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (57) well below field median (64). Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: 2p;4p btw upr;ran on. Last race was career-best speed (68) — bounce risk after peak effort. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.8 pts: [68, 55, 38, 59, 65]) — unpredictable performer. 0 wins from 5 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: TP). Speed improved +17 pts then +13 pts in last 2 starts (38 → 55 → 68) — trainer is progressively building fitness. Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (38 → 55 → 68) and last race speed is well above career average (57) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts. Trainer 'SOLIS JACINTO' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 8.0602 (7/7) CatBoost: 35.4174 (6/7) XGB: 25.6992 (7/7) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.03 Fair Odds: 7.47 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | C |
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | A | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (44%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 58 vs field 32).
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 82 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (52) well below field median (64). Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Inside; rallied 2d. 0 wins from 7 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface. Trainer 'SOLIS JACINTO' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 43.892 (5/7) CatBoost: 25.8763 (7/7) XGB: 39.8243 (5/7) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 1.40 Fair Odds: 8.83 (8/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | D |
| Mid Pace | A | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | D |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | A | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | C |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | D |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | F |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (74) well above field median (64). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). Big last-race effort (81) — 10 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). In the money in last 4 consecutive starts. Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 76 vs field 67). Fourth race back from a 71-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Rallied outside for 2d. Last race was career-best speed (81) — bounce risk after peak effort. Speed improved +11 pts then +8 pts in last 2 starts (62 → 73 → 81) — trainer is progressively building fitness. Two consecutive 5+ pt speed jumps (62 → 73 → 81) and last race speed is well above career average (74) — high bounce risk after back-to-back peak efforts. Trainer 'LINDER LOUIS JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 81.9629 (2/7) CatBoost: 100 (1/7) XGB: 100 (1/7) ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -7.71 Fair Odds: 5.73 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | A | B |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | B |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 191-day layoff with a recent workout. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (50%). Career-best speed figure (60) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). 4 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Strong speed 2 back (62), modest dip last out (52) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. Consistent workout spacing (6, 8 days) — disciplined training regimen.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 191 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (57) well below field median (64). Limited experience at today's distance (2 starts). Trip note from last race: Stumbled start;used up. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Returning from 191-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot.
LGBM: 100 (1/7) CatBoost: 73.9978 (3/7) XGB: 92.6621 (2/7) ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.51 Fair Odds: 6.67 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | D |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | C |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | D |
| Turf Speed | A | C |
| Distance Speed | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | D |
| Late Pace | B | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | D |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (69) well above field median (64). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 84).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Limited experience at today's distance (1 start). Unproven on dirt surface (1 start). Trip note from last race: Bid 3w 1/4; weakened.
LGBM: 65.3587 (4/7) CatBoost: 90.9938 (2/7) XGB: 34.919 (6/7) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: 0.22 Fair Odds: 6.47 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | C |
| Early Pace | D | F |
| Mid Pace | D | D |
| Late Pace | C | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (36%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal. Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:First-time starter - no previous race record. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. First time at today's distance. Has never raced on dirt surface. Post 7 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.71 Fair Odds: 9.22 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | D | F |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | D | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | F | F |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | F |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | F |
| Early Pace | F | F |
| Mid Pace | F | F |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 20 wins from 45 starts (44%). Big last-race effort (72) — 10 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 91 vs field 84).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (2 of 3 starts). Trip note from last race: Pace; 3 path;worn down. Last race was career-best speed (72) — bounce risk after peak effort. Post 8 in a 8-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Trainer 'PINO MICHAEL V' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 71.8705 (3/7) CatBoost: 72.3842 (4/7) XGB: 73.5395 (3/7) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -0.55 Fair Odds: 6.24 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | B | D |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Finish Pos | A | A |
| Dirt Speed | A | C |
| Turf Speed | C | D |
| Distance Speed | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | D |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | D |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Speed average (84) well above field median (76). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 16 wins from 53 starts (30%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 82 vs field 78). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 77). Strong speed 2 back (84), modest dip last out (77) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Rail; gave way. Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. No workout in last 30 days despite 30 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $12,500) after a 30-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Returning from 30-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 98.4569 (2/6) CatBoost: 100 (1/6) XGB: 100 (1/6) ML: 2.00 (9/5) Overlay %: -9.14 Fair Odds: 5.13 (9/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($25,000 → $10,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (53%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 77). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Finish positions worsening over last 4 starts. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a sprint to a route today. 0 wins from 8 career starts on off tracks. Trip note from last race: Trailed throughout. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.4 pts: [67, 75, 75, 90, 80]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 83.5054 (4/6) CatBoost: 82.4945 (3/6) XGB: 54.0983 (3/6) ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -2.59 Fair Odds: 5.96 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | C |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | C | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | C | D |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 55-day layoff with a recent workout. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 20 wins from 45 starts (44%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit. Has a bullet work (fastest at track that day) — sharp conditioning signal.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 55 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Moving from a sprint to a route today. Trip note from last race: Late energy inside. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Dropping in class ($10,000 vs last $25,000) after a 55-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Returning from 55-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.9 pts: [71, 72, 89, 50, 74]) — unpredictable performer. Trainer 'PINO MICHAEL V' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 85.0018 (3/6) CatBoost: 72.631 (5/6) XGB: 76.9125 (2/6) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: 1.43 Fair Odds: 6.07 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | C |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | C | D |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | F | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (47%). In the money in last 6 consecutive starts. Track specialist — 13 wins from 39 starts here (33%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 83 vs field 77). Fourth race back from a 49-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($7,500 → $10,000). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: In tght early;wide bid. No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. Rising in class ($7,500 → $10,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 78.4954 (5/6) CatBoost: 80.598 (4/6) XGB: 49.2299 (5/6) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: 0.33 Fair Odds: 6.03 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Repeatedly beaten at this class level (3 of last 5 starts). Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this track (0 wins from 6 starts). Trip note from last race: Three wide bid; tired. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Has not won in last 10 starts despite career wins. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.5 pts: [80, 82, 55, 84, 90]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 100 (1/6) CatBoost: 88.3668 (2/6) XGB: 52.5879 (4/6) ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -0.63 Fair Odds: 5.83 (11/2) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | B |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | D | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $10,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (46%). Track specialist — 4 wins from 7 starts here (57%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 78).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Poor start; wide; stop. Has won at today's distance (1760 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 14.4 pts: [53, 79, 85, 90, 73]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 74.5221 (6/6) CatBoost: 40.1468 (6/6) XGB: 48.6228 (6/6) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: 3.85 Fair Odds: 5.77 (11/2) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | B | B |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $10,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (27%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (31%). Strong speed 2 back (68), modest dip last out (61) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Speed average (67) well below field median (76). 0 wins from 5 career starts on off tracks. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 10 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Vied inside; stopped. 0 wins from 10 starts on dirt in last 10 — repeated failure on today's surface.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 0 ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 6.75 Fair Odds: 7.68 (7/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | D | D |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | F |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 20 wins from 45 starts (44%). Big last-race effort (82) — 12 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 74).
⚠ Concerns:Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Trip note from last race: Angled out; rallied. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'PINO MICHAEL V' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 94.8615 (2/8) CatBoost: 100 (1/8) XGB: 100 (1/8) ML: 3.00 (5/2) Overlay %: -4.32 Fair Odds: 5.69 (11/2) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | C | C |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $10,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (29%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 90 vs field 84).
⚠ Concerns:Tends to fade in the stretch at similar distances (6 of 10 starts). Trip note from last race: Rail turn; lacked bid. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 72.4572 (5/8) CatBoost: 81.1311 (3/8) XGB: 63.598 (5/8) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 3.41 Fair Odds: 7.35 (6/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | C | B |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | C | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | A | A |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (50%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 81 vs field 74). Strong speed 2 back (77), modest dip last out (71) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($5,000 → $10,000). Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Moving from a route to a sprint today. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 8 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Hopped; off slowly. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 79.3432 (3/8) CatBoost: 71.1597 (5/8) XGB: 99.4628 (2/8) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -1.44 Fair Odds: 7.76 (7/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (28%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (2537%).
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($7,500 → $10,000). Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Speed average (67) well below field median (73). 0 wins from 4 career starts on off tracks. Trip note from last race: Well placed; wide bid. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). No workout in last 30 days despite 19 days since last race. Rising in class ($7,500 → $10,000) after finishing 3 last out — double negative. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.0 pts: [73, 74, 61, 79, 52]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 3.5884 (7/8) CatBoost: 6.8062 (7/8) XGB: 22.3257 (7/8) ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 5.55 Fair Odds: 8.64 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | B | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($16,000 → $10,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). Track specialist — 16 wins from 47 starts here (34%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 82 vs field 74). Strong speed 2 back (85), modest dip last out (76) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Trip note from last race: Far back; wide energy. No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 4W from 15 starts (27%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 8.4 pts: [76, 85, 81, 63, 79]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 100 (1/8) CatBoost: 96.6221 (2/8) XGB: 75.3601 (4/8) ML: 2.50 (9/5) Overlay %: -8.73 Fair Odds: 6.52 (6/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | C | B |
| Mid Pace | B | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | D | C |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (31%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%).
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($5,000 → $10,000). Speed average (67) well below field median (73). 0 wins from 7 career starts on off tracks. Trip note from last race: In tight;crowded 1/16p. Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($14,000 → $7,500 → $5,000). Rising in class ($5,000 → $10,000) after finishing 5 last out — double negative. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 1.1055 (8/8) CatBoost: 0 XGB: 8.2022 (8/8) ML: 20.00 (20/1) Overlay %: 6.05 Fair Odds: 9.28 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | A | B |
| Distance Speed | D | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Finish positions improving over last 4 starts. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (46%). Big last-race effort (79) — 15 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (40%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 78 vs field 74).
⚠ Concerns:Rising in class today ($7,500 → $10,000). Moving from a route to a sprint today. Trip note from last race: Rail; moved out; clear. Last race was career-best speed (79) — bounce risk after peak effort. No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Post 7 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Trainer 'LINDER LOUIS JR' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 43.4571 (6/8) CatBoost: 51.278 (6/8) XGB: 38.7429 (6/8) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 0.91 Fair Odds: 9.55 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | D |
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | B |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Only early-speed horse in the race - uncontested lead possible. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 16 wins from 53 starts (30%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%).
⚠ Concerns:Moving from a route to a sprint today. Trip note from last race: 4w trip; chased; faded. Was the betting favorite in the last race but finished off the board. No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 1W from 4 starts (25%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). Post 8 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 11.6 pts: [54, 68, 84, 59, 71]) — unpredictable performer. Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 74.0238 (4/8) CatBoost: 79.5167 (4/8) XGB: 93.3431 (3/8) ML: 4.00 (7/2) Overlay %: -4.31 Fair Odds: 8.01 (7/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | C |
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | B | B |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | B | B |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (28%). Career-best speed figure (73) recorded in last 1-2 starts — peaking form. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (2667%).
⚠ Concerns:Speed average (63) well below field median (73). Moving from a route to a sprint today. Trip note from last race: Vied 3w; gave way. Has won at today's distance (1540 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Post 9 in a 9-horse dirt sprint — wide draw forces extra ground and a difficult first-turn path. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 10.7 pts: [46, 75, 60, 67, 64]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 2.7218 (8/8) XGB: 0 ML: 15.00 (14/1) Overlay %: 2.87 Fair Odds: 12.01 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | D |
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | C |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | F | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | D |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($7,500 → $5,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (49%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). Track specialist — 7 wins from 27 starts here (26%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Inside; no threat. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 67.2548 (6/11) CatBoost: 79.484 (5/11) XGB: 100 (1/11) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: -0.39 Fair Odds: 10.73 (10/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | B |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | F | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | B | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Sprint FPS | F | F |
| Route FPS | F | F |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (32%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (41%). Strong speed 2 back (83), modest dip last out (78) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: 3w far turn; mildly. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 6 starts (33%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 54.1978 (8/11) CatBoost: 14.6803 (10/11) XGB: 60.9229 (10/11) ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 3.02 Fair Odds: 11.79 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | A |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Finish Pos | F | D |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | F | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | A | B |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (43%). Track specialist — 3 wins from 9 starts here (33%). Early pace significantly above field median (E1: 84 vs field 79). Strong speed 2 back (79), modest dip last out (70) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Dueled inside; tired. Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($7,500 → $6,000 → $5,000). Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 3W from 5 starts (60%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 13.7 pts: [70, 79, 59, 95, 67]) — unpredictable performer.
LGBM: 85.2349 (2/11) CatBoost: 65.2836 (8/11) XGB: 68.8637 (7/11) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 2.72 Fair Odds: 9.36 (8/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | B | B |
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | A | A |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | F | D |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | F | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | B | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (59%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (31%).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: 3w trip; bid; dug in. 0 wins from post 4 in 3 recent starts. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'PINO MICHAEL V' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 77.4221 (4/11) CatBoost: 93.6711 (2/11) XGB: 75.0845 (4/11) ML: 5.00 (9/2) Overlay %: -1.60 Fair Odds: 10.37 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | F | C |
| Finish Pos | D | C |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | C | C |
| Sprint FPS | A | B |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | D |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | A | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (38%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 85 vs field 82). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. 0 wins from 10 career starts on off tracks. Trip note from last race: Outrun early; belated. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). Consistently runs wide at the first call (3 of last 5 starts). No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'RAMIREZ SILVINO' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 2.3929 (11/11) CatBoost: 3.2749 (11/11) XGB: 0 ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 1.81 Fair Odds: 14.13 (13/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | F | C |
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | F | B |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | C |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | B | B |
| Sprint FPS | F | D |
| Route FPS | C | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | F | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | F | D |
| Mid Pace | F | D |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (26%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (36%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 55-day layoff — often the peak fitness race.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Bumped start; 4w turns. Consistently breaks behind post position (3 of last 5 starts). No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 0 CatBoost: 0 XGB: 70.2872 (6/11) ML: 12.00 (11/1) Overlay %: 2.71 Fair Odds: 12.32 (11/1) O/U: Overlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | B | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | A | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | C | B |
| Jockey Effectiveness | D | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot jockey — high ITM rate (35%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Strong speed 2 back (85), modest dip last out (73) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form. Hot trainer - high ITM rate (51%).
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: 4-3wd turns;weakened. No workout in last 30 days despite 30 days since last race. Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($16,000 → $12,500 → $7,500). Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Dropping in class ($5,000 vs last $7,500) after a 30-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Returning from 30-day layoff with a bullet workout — trainer signaling extra readiness for today's spot. Carries 7 lbs less than field median (115 lbs vs median 122 lbs). First start at PRX — never raced here before (last seen at: LRL).
LGBM: 100 (1/11) CatBoost: 100 (1/11) XGB: 79.7259 (3/11) ML: 3.50 (5/2) Overlay %: -5.27 Fair Odds: 10.63 (10/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | B |
| Late Pace | B | A |
| Finish Pos | C | C |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | C | A |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | B |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | F |
| Jockey Effectiveness | B | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | D | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (45%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 2 wins from 7 starts (29%). Big last-race effort (90) — 13 pts above recent average. Hot jockey — high ITM rate (50%). Late pace significantly above field median (LP: 86 vs field 82). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Rail rally; willingly. Outside post (9) in a large field of 12 horses. Last race was career-best speed (90) — bounce risk after peak effort. No workout in last 30 days despite 20 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Outstanding wet-track record: 2W from 4 starts (50%) — thrives when the going is off. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Trainer 'RAMIREZ SILVINO' has 2 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 69.3488 (5/11) CatBoost: 85.6466 (3/11) XGB: 93.9196 (2/11) ML: 6.00 (11/2) Overlay %: -0.07 Fair Odds: 10.30 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | F | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | B | C |
| Dirt Speed | C | A |
| Turf Speed | F | D |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | B | C |
| Route FPS | C | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | D | C |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | B | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | F | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Dropping in class today ($7,500 → $5,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (60%). Strong trainer/jockey combo - 16 wins from 53 starts (30%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (58%). Fourth race back from a 52-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. Strong speed 2 back (88), modest dip last out (83) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.
⚠ Concerns:Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: 4w early; 3w; evenly. Outside post (10) in a large field of 12 horses. No workout in last 30 days despite 18 days since last race. Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Carries 5 lbs less than field median (117 lbs vs median 122 lbs). Trainer 'NESS JAMIE' has 3 horses in today's card all showing last-race improvement — barn appears sharp right now.
LGBM: 55.282 (7/11) CatBoost: 80.1013 (4/11) XGB: 64.2283 (8/11) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.57 Fair Odds: 10.39 (9/1) O/U: Underlay
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | A | A |
| Speed | C | A |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | A | A |
| Distance Speed | C | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | D | D |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | A | A |
| 3rd Party Ratings | A | A |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | C | B |
| Early Pace | B | C |
| Mid Pace | C | C |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (34%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (45%). In the money in last 5 consecutive starts. Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners.
⚠ Concerns:Was claimed from its most recent race - new connections. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Poor record at this distance (0 wins from 4 recent starts). Trip note from last race: Rallied outside;gamely. Outside post (11) in a large field of 12 horses. No workout in last 30 days despite 21 days since last race. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo.
LGBM: 23.5379 (10/11) CatBoost: 34.8316 (9/11) XGB: 29.6946 (11/11) ML: 8.00 (7/1) Overlay %: 0.42 Fair Odds: 12.60 (12/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | C | B |
| Speed | B | A |
| Early Pace | A | B |
| Mid Pace | A | A |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Finish Pos | A | B |
| Dirt Speed | B | A |
| Turf Speed | D | B |
| Distance Speed | A | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | A | A |
| Early Pace | C | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | A | A |
| Sprint FPS | C | C |
| Route FPS | D | D |
| Trainer Effectiveness | A | A |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | B |
| 3rd Party Ratings | C | B |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | B | B |
| Early Pace | A | C |
| Mid Pace | C | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
Chart Guide (2.0.35)
- Bubbles
- Color = surface: green (turf), brown (dirt), blue (synthetic)
- Top number = finishing position; bottom number in parentheses = starting post position
- Height above line = beaten lengths — closer means a smaller margin
- Border = track conditions: green (FST/GD/FM), yellow (WF/SL/YLD), red (SY/MY/FRZ/SFT/HVY)
- Connecting Line
- Solid = good conditions; dashed = bad conditions
- Line Symbol
- ▲ Triangle = sprint (7f or less); ● Circle = route (more than 7f)
- Days Between Races
- Small number above each bubble (e.g. 19d) = days since the previous race — helps spot freshness, layoffs, and tight scheduling.
- Shaded Band (Bollinger)
- Highlights volatility — a wider band means more variation in recent performance
- Performance Trend
- Straight line showing the overall performance direction — angled up = improving, angled down = declining
- Dashed Reference Line
- AI Opponent = AI analysis class-level par for the race
✓ Positives:Returning from 47-day layoff with a recent workout. Dropping in class today ($7,500 → $5,000). Hot trainer - high ITM rate (29%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (42%). 3 workouts in last 30 days — horse appears sharp and fit.
⚠ Concerns:Has not raced in 47 days. Consider there will be likely pace pressure in this race - multiple E types entered. Trip note from last race: Tracked ins; faded. Outside post (12) in a large field of 12 horses. Dropping in class in consecutive starts ($15,000 → $10,000 → $7,500). Has won at today's distance (1830 yds) within the last 10 starts — proven ability at this trip. Dropping in class ($5,000 vs last $7,500) after a 47-day freshening — trainer setup-for-win angle. Has won at PRX on dirt in the last 10 starts — proven at today's exact track/surface combo. Speed figures are highly erratic over last 5 starts (σ = 9.5 pts: [64, 68, 79, 81, 87]) — unpredictable performer. Both speed figures (79→68→64) AND claiming price ($15,000→$10,000→$7,500) have declined in each of last 3 starts.
LGBM: 83.5484 (3/11) CatBoost: 76.0049 (6/11) XGB: 71.0664 (5/11) ML: 4.50 (7/2) Overlay %: -2.19 Fair Odds: 9.92 (9/1) O/U: Fair
Score Definitions
- LGBM
- LightGBM model score (0–100) — machine-learning composite rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses (e.g. 1/9) shows this horse’s rank out of the field size.
- CatBoost
- CatBoost model score (0–100) — gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- XGB
- XGBoost model score (0–100) — ensemble gradient boosting rating among field contenders (higher = stronger). The number in parentheses shows rank within the field.
- ML
- Morning line odds set by the track handicapper before wagering opens
- Overlay %
- How much the fair odds exceed the morning line, expressed as a percentage — positive values indicate value
- Fair Odds
- Model-derived fair-value odds based on estimated win probability
- O/U
- Overlay or Underlay — whether the horse offers value (O) or is overbet (U) relative to fair odds
Lane Bias Guide
- Bar Direction
- Bars above the line = more favorable lane • Bars below = less favorable, relative to the average at this track.
- Color
- Green = above-average advantage • Yellow = near-average • Red = below-average • Blue = this horse’s lane.
- Bias Score
- Derived from weighted average finishing positions across historical races at this track. Shown in the tooltip on hover. To use the bias score, calculate your handicap for the horse (e.g. finish position), then add (detrimental bias) or subtract (favorable bias) the bias score.
- Races
- Number of historical races used to compute each lane’s bias score.
Race Pace Bias Guide
- Bar Height & Direction
- Positive (green) = pace favors this horse • Negative (red) = pace works against this horse • Near-zero (amber) = neutral.
- Race Shape
- Projected race shape based on running styles of all horses (e.g. EE = two early horses, EP = one early presser).
- Pace Category
- FAST = contested early pace • LONE EARLY = one speed horse controlling pace • HONEST = moderate early pressure • SLOW = closers’ race.
- Flag (★)
- A star above the bar means this horse’s pace bias figure is ≥ 1.5 — a meaningful pace advantage or disadvantage.
Total Pace Guide
- Bar Segments
- Green = Early Pace (E1) • Amber = Mid Pace (E2) • Red = Late Pace (LP)
- Bar Height
- Total height = sum of E1 + E2 + LP average pace figures. Taller bars indicate a faster-paced horse overall.
- Grades & Rankings
- Hover to see each horse’s letter grade and ranking vs. other horses in this race (e.g. 2/9 = 2nd best of 9).
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Performance vs. Peers Guide
- Bars (per post)
- Blue = avg career performance • Amber = avg last 3 races • Green = last race (improved vs. avg) • Red = last race (declined vs. avg)
- Trend Line
- Angled line above the bars: rising = improving form • falling = declining form.
- Horizontal Line
- Field average — the mean career performance of all horses in this race.
- Color Circles
- Standard post-position colors below each lane — same as the Total Pace chart.
- Border
- Thicker border = this horse’s post position.
Race Pace Simulation Guide
- Slider
- Drag left→right to advance from gate to finish. Drag all the way back to reset the race.
- Predicted Finish Order
- Factors in contested pace burn, each horse’s effort curve (peaked-early vs. peaked-late), and wide trip cost from outside posts. Updated live when Track Bias changes.
- Pace Scenario
- Lone Speed: single E horse likely rates and holds. Contested: two E horses burn each other — closers benefit. Hot Pace: speed meltdown, deep closers thrive. Soft: no early speed, moderate fractions throughout.
- Track Bias
- Slider below canvas. −2 = strong closer/wet bias; +2 = strong speed/rail bias. Recomputes the predicted finish order.
- Boxed Indicator
- Dashed orange ring = horse is surrounded (rival ahead, rival behind, wall outside). In a real race this horse must find a clear path to run.
- Running Styles
- E/EE = early speed (rushes to rail). P = presser (stalks the pace). S = stalker. SS = slow starter / closer.
| Stat | vs. Current Card | vs. All Horses |
|---|---|---|
| Averages
Career-average metrics across all AI race analysis. Performance and pace averages reflect estimated historical performance; trainer and jockey grades score in-the-money percentages. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Pick Pony AI Rating | D | B |
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | D | C |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | D | B |
| Finish Pos | F | F |
| Dirt Speed | D | A |
| Turf Speed | C | B |
| Distance Speed | D | A |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Recent
Performance analysis from the horse's recent races, weighted to reflect current form. Sprint and Route FPS (Foot Per Second) measure pace efficiency over the horse's recent sprints and routes respectively. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | F | C |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | D | C |
| Late Pace | D | C |
| Sprint FPS | C | D |
| Route FPS | B | C |
| Trainer Effectiveness | F | D |
| Jockey Effectiveness | C | C |
| 3rd Party Ratings | F | C |
| Predictions
AI-generated projections for the upcoming race, derived from prior AI analysis for speed and pace trends, surface and distance suitability, and current conditions. Grading scale: A = elite • B = above average • C = average • D = below average • F = poor • — = no data |
||
| Speed | D | B |
| Early Pace | D | D |
| Mid Pace | B | B |
| Late Pace | C | C |
TL;DR
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Parx Racing offers a 10-race Monday card composed entirely of dirt races, with claiming, maiden claiming, starter optional claiming, and one maiden special weight for 3-year-old fillies as the feature in Race 7. The program is typical for Parx: lower- to mid-level claimers with strong local barns like Jamie Ness, J. Tyler Servis, Scott Lake, and others holding key chances across multiple races.
Recent news out of Parx earlier this winter included a series of weather-related cancellations on very cold days, but the track has since returned to a normal schedule and should be operating routinely today. The entry conditions you provided match the online entries, including the non-winners conditions and claiming levels, so we can treat the card as firm and accurate for tactical analysis.
Given the mix of NW2L, NW3L, and “not won since” claiming races, many fields are formful but fragile, and several races are ripe for trips, pace meltdowns, or clutch rides from the strong local jockey colony. The lone maiden special weight in Race 7 will likely be the most formful race on paper, but exposed maidens versus lightly raced types make it an important separator leg in multi-race wagers.
Weather and Track Conditions
Public weather data for the Parx Racing area (Bensalem, Pennsylvania) today call for cool early-spring conditions, with afternoon temperatures roughly in the 50s Fahrenheit, light winds, and a low chance of significant precipitation. There is no widely reported heavy rain event pegged to today's date locally, so the main track is very likely listed as fast or at worst drying out from any minor overnight moisture.
Parx's dirt surface tends to play honestly to mildly speed-favoring on dry, fast days, with inside posts generally advantageous in sprints and routes when the rail is not deeply cupped out. When the surface is wet or sloppy the rail can become dull and outside lanes improve, but with no strong indication of a wet track today, we will assume standard conditions and lean slightly toward forward tactical speed and inside to mid posts.
Track and Post Position Bias
Longer-term bias data for Parx indicate that in dirt sprints, posts 1–4 collectively win a large share of races, with around forty percent of sprint winners drawn in those inside slots. Stall 9 has overperformed relative to sample size, while post 10 and outermost stalls have underperformed in sprints, although today's card has more routes and 6.5-furlong races than pure 5–6 furlong dashes.
In routes, inside posts still tend to perform best, though the advantage is less pronounced than in sprints, and distance races have generally favored posts near the rail in recent seasons. Bias can change on any given day, but without extreme weather or recent maintenance quirks reported, we will handicap assuming a mild tilt toward horses with inside to middle draws who can secure position into the first turn.
Race 1 – Claiming 7500 NW2L – 1 Mile 70Y
Post Time
12:40 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 1 is a one mile seventy-yard claiming event for four-year-olds and upward that have never won two races, a typical Parx NW2L claimer where pace meltdowns are possible because several runners lack finishing punch. On paper, there is a blend of forward types and stalkers but no pure burner; the likely pace scenario is moderate to honest, with several wanting similar stalking trips.
Whoosh (1) can show enough early foot from the rail to be in the first flight, while Kuz It's Chilly (2) and Marchin Into April (4) have tactical speed but often prefer to track rather than duel. God Is Life (5) and Rocket Night (9) have been more midpack in prior efforts, and Skull Honor (10) projects as a stalking outside runner rather than an aggressive send. Doomed (8) is worth noting: he often shows route speed and from an outside post could be used aggressively to try to clear or sit just off the leaders, although his scratch note for unsoundness in February is a concern.
Key Contenders
Doomed (8) is a key contender on class and trainer strength if he is fully sound today; Jamie Ness does excellent work in these low- to mid-level claimers and a return to prior Parx efforts would place this gelding squarely in the win picture. The scratch watch shows a prior private vet unsoundness scratch at Laurel on February 22, so physical condition is the main question rather than ability.
Skull Honor (10) brings upside; his most recent scratch was by stewards on March 11 at Parx from a similar NW2L spot, possibly for pre-race issues, post behavior, or gate concerns. With Abner Adorno aboard and Tyler Servis training, Skull Honor (10) figures to sit a pressing trip outside the speed and should get a clean run if he breaks sharply.
Rocket Night (9) appears to have some back form and was scratched by the veterinarian from a February 18 NW2L race at Parx, but he fits the level and gets Andy Hernandez for a barn that can move horses forward second off a layoff. In a field of unreliable winners, any hint of a move forward from Rocket Night (9) puts him among the strongest late threats.
Secondary Choices
Whoosh (1) has the rail, a decent tactical style, and draws leading local rider Mychel Sanchez for trainer Emmanuel Tzortzakis, and that combination can be dangerous on a track that subtly rewards inside-forward trips. If Whoosh (1) leaves running and can control or prompt a modest tempo, he becomes a strong win candidate at a likely fair price.
Pure Realization (3) is another capable type for trainer Ilias Tapsas with Angel Castillo aboard, likely getting a midpack stalking trip and grinding into contention late. Carry Grant (6), also from the Tapsas barn, has a lighter weight assignment with a bug rider and could be used as a pace piece or midpack stab if the barn is live in this race.
Longshots
Kuz It's Chilly (2) gets a big weight break and the services of Jose Vargas, and this combination can produce a trip that saves ground behind the first flight; if the leaders overdo it, Kuz It's Chilly (2) could clunk up. Marchin Into April (4) and Redoubtableripken (7) do not appear as strong on paper but must be mentioned in multi-race wagers in case the race collapses or one steps forward unexpectedly.
God Is Life (5) for Julio Rodriguez with Joezer Rangel up is another who could get involved late with a clean trip; he is more of an underneath player in exactas and trifectas but is not impossible if the favorites fail.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This is a volatile NW2L claiming route where race shape and physical condition (especially Doomed (8) and Rocket Night (9)) will dictate value. If the tote board suggests strong support for Doomed (8) and Skull Honor (10), a reasonable approach is to lean on them in multi-race exotics while seeking price in verticals.
Win bets can focus on Skull Honor (10) if the price holds at 3-1 or better, with a saver on Doomed (8) if the board remains honest. Exacta and trifecta structures could key Skull Honor (10) and Doomed (8) over Whoosh (1), Rocket Night (9), Pure Realization (3), and Kuz It's Chilly (2).
Selections
Win: Skull Honor (10)
Place: Doomed (8)
Show: Whoosh (1)
Race 2 – Maiden Claiming F&M – 6F
Post Time
1:07 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 2 is a six-furlong maiden claiming event for older fillies and mares, a typical Parx spot where early speed often carries if the track is fair to fast. The field includes several who have shown early or tactical speed, suggesting an honest pace, but not an extreme duel.
Briscoe County (4) projects as one of the most likely forward runners, with Alice Fantastic (1) also capable of showing speed from the rail. English Elsa (7) has enough tactical speed to sit close stalking, while Lady Catalina (5) and Gotmistyonthemind (2) figure more as midpack players.
Key Contenders
Briscoe County (4) for trainer Kathleen Demasi with Kendry Rivera is a prime win candidate; she carries blinkers and looks like a filly who can get position early and sustain a steady run in this company. Her connections frequently fire in these maiden claiming events, and her projected trip just off the rail behind or on the lead is ideal at six furlongs.
English Elsa (7), also from the Coletti barn and with Frankie Pennington riding, is a significant threat; she may be the best finisher in the race if the leaders soften up even slightly. With Pennington's strong sense of pace, English Elsa (7) could sit third or fourth early and pounce turning for home.
Secondary Choices
Alice Fantastic (1) on the rail with Luis Rivera has the tactical ability to leave quickly and secure inside position; on a track that favors inside speed, that is a strong positive. If Alice Fantastic (1) is somehow allowed to control a modest pace, she could wire the field at a price.
Reinvestedividends (6) for trainer Howard Brown Jr. with Andrew Wolfsont up is a grinding type who could improve in her second or third start at the level; she looks more win-capable than Daisy Believes (9), the stablemate, but both have some exotics appeal. Mia Counting (8) and Lady Catalina (5) are not without ability but may need pace and progression to threaten for the win.
Longshots
Gotmistyonthemind (2) for Silvestre Gonzalez and Edward Coletti can improve with a better trip; she seems a stretch-runner type who needs an honest pace and a clear lane in the stretch at Parx. Daisy Believes (9) for Brown Jr. with Francisco Martinez is another who might get into the supers with a passable trip.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This race could be a spot to lean into likely chalk or mid-priced favorites in multi-race wagers. Briscoe County (4) and English Elsa (7) should be on all horizontal tickets, with Alice Fantastic (1) used as a value third option where budget permits.
Vertical wagers such as exactas can key Briscoe County (4) and English Elsa (7) on top, with Alice Fantastic (1), Reinvestedividends (6), and Gotmistyonthemind (2) underneath. If the tote heavily favors one of the Coletti runners, consider pressing the other at a better price.
Selections
Win: Briscoe County (4)
Place: English Elsa (7)
Show: Alice Fantastic (1)
Race 3 – Starter Optional Claiming – 1 Mile
Post Time
1:34 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 3 is a one-mile starter optional claiming for older horses that have started for 25000 or less and meet the non-winners condition, a small but competitive six-horse field. Pace looks honest with several who like to be forward, but none are pure runoff types, which sets up well for tactical stalkers.
All American Rod (1) from the Jamie Ness barn should be right there early from the rail, while Otter Mischief (3) also has the ability to sit near the pace with Andy Hernandez. Light My Way (4) and Who's The King (5) can both stalk, while Mucho Mojo (2) and Chance (6) are more midpack or closing types.
Key Contenders
Otter Mischief (3) is a primary win candidate; multiple handicappers project him highly in this spot, and he appears to own a blend of tactical speed, consistency, and spacing that fits this condition. The scratch watch shows a previous trainer scratch at Laurel on February 14, but that appears to be strategic rather than an unsoundness issue, and he is now placed in a realistic starter spot at Parx.
All American Rod (1) is the main danger, representing the capable Ness-Silvera combo; Ness typically spots his horses aggressively but realistically, and this starter optional level suits a horse with his profile. From the rail, All American Rod (1) can sit on or just off the lead and get first run on deeper closers.
Secondary Choices
Who's The King (5), also for Ness but with Mychel Sanchez, is a very live runner who could be the “other Ness” but may offer a better price than All American Rod (1). His tactical style and ability to sit just behind the leaders make him a serious threat if the rail horse is pressed.
Chance (6) with Silvestre Gonzalez and trainer Michael Catalano Jr. should be running late; he may benefit if the Ness runners hook up early with Otter Mischief (3), leaving the race open for a closer. Mucho Mojo (2) for Ernesto Padilla-Preciado and Jorge Vargas Jr. has back class but might need a perfect setup.
Longshots
Light My Way (4) with apprentice Dalila Rivera and trainer Alfredo Velazquez is the least accomplished on paper but could sneak into the exotics with a ground-saving trip and light weight. His upside is limited compared to the Ness pair and Otter Mischief (3), but in small fields, all have at least some chance.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
This race looks chalky and shapes as a central “single or double” decision in early Pick 4 or Pick 5 sequences. Otter Mischief (3) is a logical single if you trust the barn and Hernandez, while more conservative players can back him up with All American Rod (1) in horizontals.
Vertical approaches could key Otter Mischief (3) over All American Rod (1) and Who's The King (5), while including Chance (6) in third to catch a minor upset in the trifecta. If the board inflates Who's The King (5), a modest win bet as a value alternative is reasonable.
Selections
Win: Otter Mischief (3)
Place: All American Rod (1)
Show: Who's The King (5)
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming – 6.5F
Post Time
2:01 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 4 is a 6.5-furlong maiden claiming for three-year-olds and upward, a tricky distance that rewards tactical speed and sustained finishing power. Several runners in here look capable of being forward, and the race could develop honestly if at least two send into the long sprint.
Lucky Capo (1) from the inside with Dexter Haddock can show pace, while Very Bad Guy (3) and Cap'n Cats (5) project as pace or pace-press types. Imperial Spy (4) and Chuck's Law (6) can stalk, and Ten Plus Ten (7) is more of a midpack grinder.
Key Contenders
Imperial Spy (4) is a key player and appears among top picks from multiple handicappers in similar spots; Ruperto Perez does well with this type, and Eliseo Ruiz is reliable timing a midpack run. The 6.5-furlong trip should suit Imperial Spy (4), who can sit just off the top flight and grind them down late.
Very Bad Guy (3) for Scott Lake and Frankie Pennington must also be strongly considered; Lake is adept with maidens at Parx, and Pennington is one of the best pace judges in the colony. Very Bad Guy (3) should be in the first three early and is well-spotted at the claiming price.
Secondary Choices
Lucky Capo (1) with Dexter Haddock in the Guerrero barn is dangerous from the rail if he breaks cleanly and secures the lead or sits in the pocket behind a dueling pair. Guerrero's horses often show speed, and the inside draw at 6.5 furlongs is a plus if the track is not dead inside.
Chuck's Law (6) for Jacinto Solis and Andy Hernandez looks like the type to improve with experience, and Hernandez has been riding well at Parx in similar conditions. Cap'n Cats (5) for Josue Arce may need another race but is not impossible to sneak into the frame given a forward trip.
Longshots
Penn Franklin (2) with Yedsit Hazlewood and Harold Wyner, and Ten Plus Ten (7) with Anthony Nunez for Gustavo Chacon, appear as longer chances but could pick up pieces in a meltdown scenario. Both are more suitable for deep exotic use.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Imperial Spy (4) and Very Bad Guy (3) are strong A-level horses in horizontals and could even be used as a tight two-deep team in Pick 3 and Pick 4 sequences. Imperial Spy (4) is slightly preferred as a win play if the price is square.
Exactas might focus on Imperial Spy (4) and Very Bad Guy (3) on top, with Lucky Capo (1), Chuck's Law (6), and Cap'n Cats (5) filling underneath. If the inside seems very strong earlier in the card, consider modest win coverage on Lucky Capo (1).
Selections
Win: Imperial Spy (4)
Place: Very Bad Guy (3)
Show: Lucky Capo (1)
Race 5 – Claiming 7500 NW3L F&M – 6.5F
Post Time
2:28 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 5 is a 6.5-furlong claiming event for fillies and mares that have never won three races, at the 7500 level, with a relatively full field of eight. Pace looks fair: Girl Dynamite (1), Magical Trick (4), and Laugh Like Lucy (8) are all capable of being involved early, with Lilliput (7) and Browneyedvalentine (5) close by.
Laugh Like Lucy (8) often shows tactical speed and sits just off the lead, and that style could be perfect here for the Servis barn. The race does not appear to contain a suicidal speed duel, which benefits the forward tactical runners.
Key Contenders
Laugh Like Lucy (8) is a strong key; multiple independent handicappers rate her highly in this field, and she has the right trainer-rider combo (Tyler Servis and Kendry Rivera) to capitalize on a stalking trip. Her prior efforts suggest she handles this distance well and fits the NW3L level.
Girl Dynamite (1) in the Saldana Guerrero barn with Dexter Haddock is another strong contender; rail speed at 6.5 furlongs is always dangerous if she clears or sits just off a single rival. She has the potential to improve at this stage and should be prominently placed turning for home.
Secondary Choices
Browneyedvalentine (5) for Howard Brown Jr. and Andrew Wolfsont is a logical underneath and fringe win contender; her steady style and fit at the level make her a consistent threat for the exotics. Magical Trick (4) for Michael Pino and Mychel Sanchez has some upside if she can secure a good outside stalking trip.
Royal Party (6) for Uriah St. Lewis with Dalila Rivera is more of a midpack player but can pick up pieces if the leaders weaken late. Angel Mesa (2) and Brooklyn Heights (3) appear more as longshot types but cannot be completely dismissed.
Longshots
Lilliput (7) with bug rider Paul Luna and Dalton Peart as trainer is a price play who may improve with racing and a better trip; if the early pace falters, Lilliput (7) could surprise at big odds. Brooklyn Heights (3), older at nine, is more suited for deep exotics use.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Laugh Like Lucy (8) looks like a strong win candidate; use her prominently in all horizontals and consider her as a single for aggressive multi-race strategies. If she sits a perfect trip, she should get every chance to finish the job.
Vertical wagering could involve keying Laugh Like Lucy (8) over Girl Dynamite (1), Browneyedvalentine (5), and Magical Trick (4) in exactas and trifectas. If Girl Dynamite (1) is dismissed in the betting, she becomes a good value win bet hedge.
Selections
Win: Laugh Like Lucy (8)
Place: Girl Dynamite (1)
Show: Browneyedvalentine (5)
Race 6 – Claiming 5000 – 1 1/16 Miles
Post Time
2:55 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 6 is a 1 1/16-mile claiming race for older horses that have not won a race since September 30, with a mix of aging veterans and some barns that excel at this condition. Pace appears moderately honest, with Checkitup (1), Venezuelan Triumph (4), Arak (5), and Augustine Red (9) all capable of being forward.
Augustine Red (9) from the Ness barn often shows tactical speed and can sit pressing outside trips to great effect. Rerally (10) and Prime Motive (8) may be midpack types, with Grand Daniel (7) and Majestic Frontier (6) also in the second flight.
Key Contenders
Augustine Red (9) is a standout on paper; Jamie Ness excels in these older claiming routes, and multiple online handicappers list him as a top selection with Mychel Sanchez aboard. His tactical style, class drop, and positive trainer-jockey combo make him an almost mandatory A in horizontals and a likely short-priced win candidate.
Rerally (10) for Scott Lake with Ruben Silvera is another strong contender; Lake has always been sharp with this type of older gelding, and Silvera is excellent in rating positions and timing moves at Parx. From the outside, Rerally (10) can sit a stalking trip and try to grind down Augustine Red (9) late.
Secondary Choices
Arak (5) for Ernesto Padilla-Preciado with Jorge Vargas Jr. has enough ability to win this with a good trip; he figures to be forward or just off, and the barn's recent form is solid. Grand Daniel (7) for Tyler Servis and Luis Rivera is another who could improve and has shown flashes at similar levels.
Checkitup (1) on the rail with Kendry Rivera can save ground and may try to send to hold position into the first turn; he has a puncher's chance if he gets a very soft trip. Jigsaw (2), Curlins Cruzin (3), Venezuelan Triumph (4), Majestic Frontier (6), and Prime Motive (8) are more “underneath” types but can sneak into the money.
Longshots
Curlins Cruzin (3) with Jean Aguilar and Venezuelan Triumph (4) with Joezer Rangel are older types that need a race flow but could pass tired horses late. Prime Motive (8) may improve for Ruperto Perez and Yan Rodriguez, though he appears a notch below the top group.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Augustine Red (9) is the likeliest winner on the card and will probably attract heavy attention; he is a very logical single in middle-late horizontals. If you oppose him at your peril, Rerally (10) is the most sensible alternative for win coverage.
Exacta approaches could key Augustine Red (9) and Rerally (10) on top of Arak (5), Grand Daniel (7), and Checkitup (1). For trifectas, you can stand on Augustine Red (9) first, with Rerally (10) second, spreading underneath with price horses toward completing the ticket.
Selections
Win: Augustine Red (9)
Place: Rerally (10)
Show: Arak (5)
Race 7 – Maiden Special Weight F 3YO – 6.5F
Post Time
3:22 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 7 is the feature maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies at 6.5 furlongs, with a solid 50000 purse and several lightly raced or improving horses. The pace picture is interesting: Lighten (1), Union Doos (5), and Avatude (6) can all show speed, while Punch And Judy (3) and Thirtyninered (7) project as strong finishers.
Lighten (1) has shown speed in prior efforts and draws the rail, which almost forces a positive ride from Hazlewood to protect position. Union Doos (5) for Robert Reid Jr. is a likely stalker or pace-presser, and Avatude (6) can be forward if used, while South Boundary (8) can sit midpack.
Key Contenders
Punch And Judy (3) has received strong algorithmic and handicapper support, and looks like the filly most likely to produce a strong finishing kick at this distance, especially with Ruben Silvera aboard. She has been consistently ranked highly in pre-race analysis and has the running style to capitalize if the pace is honest.
Union Doos (5) for Robert Reid Jr. with Abner Adorno is another major player; Reid is excellent with Parx maiden special weight fillies, and Union Doos (5) projects as a forwardly placed filly with enough stamina to finish at 6.5 furlongs. Her tactical edge is significant in a race where a few others may still be figuring things out.
Secondary Choices
Lighten (1) from the Ness barn with Yedsit Hazlewood is dangerous if she breaks sharply and benefits from any rail bias or inside speed-friendly surface tendency today. She has been flagged as a “fast closer” in some data, but here she may use her speed from the inside to establish position.
Thirtyninered (7) for Howard Brown Jr. and Silvestre Gonzalez is a strong closing type who could be particularly dangerous if the top three engage in an early battle. Avatude (6) for Ernesto Padilla-Preciado and Andy Hernandez is a wild card: she has ability and could be either stalking or pressing, depending on the break.
Longshots
Honorisia (2) has been scratched previously by stewards from a similar maiden special weight on March 18, which may hint at gate issues or pre-race concerns. She has some ability but remains more speculative until she proves reliable.
Haunting Echoes (4) and South Boundary (8) are not without talent and could surprise with a big step forward; South Boundary (8) has a prior veterinary scratch from March 18 but can improve if now fully healthy. Both are interesting for deep exotics.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Punch And Judy (3) and Union Doos (5) are top A-level horses in horizontals and can anchor late sequences. Punch And Judy (3) is slightly preferred as a win bet at anything above 5-2, with Union Doos (5) as co-A.
Vertical structures could key Punch And Judy (3) and Union Doos (5) on top, using Lighten (1), Thirtyninered (7), and Avatude (6) in second and third. If the rail has been very strong, you may wish to upgrade Lighten (1) into co-top selection status.
Selections
Win: Punch And Judy (3)
Place: Union Doos (5)
Show: Lighten (1)
Race 8 – Claiming 10000 – 1 Mile
Post Time
3:49 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 8 is a one-mile 10000 claiming race for older horses, with seven entered; this is a compact field but contains several pace factors. Bold Endeavor (1), It's Game Time (4), and Preach It Warrior (6) all have enough early speed, while Check My Six (3) and Fluff The Pillow (7) will be stalking or midpack.
We also note from scratch data that Check My Six (3) and Fluff The Pillow (7) have both been scratched in recent starts (Check My Six (3) by stewards on March 12, Fluff The Pillow (7) by stewards on February 16), which might have impacted their preparation. If either is now fully ready, they can contribute to the pace and pressing group.
Key Contenders
It's Game Time (4) for Jamie Ness with Frankie Pennington looks like a central contender; older but classy, he fits the 10000 level and can sit a stalking trip behind Bold Endeavor (1) and others. Ness has a strong record with older geldings dropping to realistic spots.
Bold Endeavor (1) for Ness with Hazlewood is another prime player; his inside draw and experience at the route distance make him a logical pace-presser threat. The Ness barn appears to have a strong hand here with a two-pronged attack.
Secondary Choices
Check My Six (3) for Michael Pino and Mychel Sanchez is dangerous if he is ready off the prior stewards scratch; Pino is capable of moving a horse up in this type of spot, and a stalking rail trip could be ideal. Amedeus Music (5) for Ronald Abrams and Andrew Wolfsont is a steady type who could benefit from any pace pressure up front.
Preach It Warrior (6) with Andy Hernandez for Richard Vega has enough tactical speed to be involved early and may hold on for a share if the pace is not too hot. Fluff The Pillow (7) for Joann Bertone and Julio Correa has some upside but also the question mark of the prior scratch.
Longshots
Tricolour (2) for John Kirby with Silvestre Gonzalez is stepping down from higher-level claimers; he was trainer-scratched from a 35000 claimer on March 2, likely for strategic reasons. He could be a live longshot if the class relief hits hard today.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The Ness pair, Bold Endeavor (1) and It's Game Time (4), plus Check My Six (3) are the key to this race. If either Ness horse floats up in price due to stablemates, that one becomes a good win play.
Horizontals should use Bold Endeavor (1), It's Game Time (4), and Check My Six (3) as A-level, with Tricolour (2) as a B- or C-level backup. Exacta and trifecta structures can key the Ness pair over Check My Six (3), Tricolour (2), and Amedeus Music (5).
Selections
Win: It's Game Time (4)
Place: Bold Endeavor (1)
Show: Check My Six (3)
Race 9 – Claiming 10000 F&M – 7F
Post Time
4:16 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 9 is a seven-furlong claiming race for older fillies and mares at the 10000 level, which can be one of the trickier distances at Parx because it is neither a true sprint nor a true route. Pace appears potentially contentious: Et's Moon Maiden (1), Popover Gal (2), Wild Girl (4), Mikey's Song (6), and Society Ball (8) can all show varying degrees of early foot.
If all go, an honest to quick pace is likely, which could set up for deeper stalkers like Zoning Order (7), Ambitiously Placed (5), or Love Like Crazy (9). Lineups like this at seven furlongs have produced some decent-priced closers historically at Parx.
Key Contenders
Society Ball (8) from the Ness barn with Yedsit Hazlewood is a key player; she has tactical speed but does not need the lead, and Ness's record with these mares at this level is very strong. If she sits a perfect outside stalking trip, she could prove very tough.
Thegoddessofsnakes (3) for Guadalupe Guerrero with Dexter Haddock is another major contender; her class and ability to sit just off the speed make her dangerous, and Haddock's familiarity with Parx's stretch can help. While older at eight, she has the back class to beat this field when right.
Secondary Choices
Zoning Order (7) for Louis Linder Jr. and Ruben Silvera is a big late threat; she can settle midpack and make a strong stretch move if the early fractions are demanding. Popover Gal (2) with Silvestre Gonzalez and James Noble is a pace player who could hold on for a share if not pressured excessively.
Mikey's Song (6) for Trevor Gallimore and Angel Castillo has enough ability to sit close and hang on in the exotics. Et's Moon Maiden (1) for Michael Pino and Mychel Sanchez can also contend from the rail if she breaks well.
Longshots
Wild Girl (4) for James Nicholson Jr. and Ajhari Williams is more of a deep exotics candidate, while Ambitiously Placed (5) for Ronald Abrams and Andrew Wolfsont is a stretch-runner who could clunk up in the trifecta at a price. Love Like Crazy (9) for Nicholson Jr. with Patrick Henry Jr. is another late player who could benefit from a pace meltdown.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Society Ball (8) and Thegoddessofsnakes (3) are the primary A-level horses; Zoning Order (7) sits just beneath them as a strong B+ value player. In horizontals, use all three prominently; if you need to thin, Society Ball (8) is the most logical single.
Vertical bets can key Society Ball (8) and Thegoddessofsnakes (3) over Zoning Order (7), Et's Moon Maiden (1), Popover Gal (2), and Mikey's Song (6). Including Ambitiously Placed (5) and Love Like Crazy (9) in the bottom of trifectas could create a payout pop.
Selections
Win: Society Ball (8)
Place: Thegoddessofsnakes (3)
Show: Zoning Order (7)
Race 10 – Claiming 5000 – 1 Mile 70Y
Post Time
4:43 PM local.
Pace Analysis
Race 10 is a 1 mile 70-yard claiming race for older horses that have not won two races since September 30 at the 5000 level, closing out the card with a full field of 12. Pace looks lively: Assembly Point (1), Keithsendshelloooo (2), Alilnalot (3), English Painter (6), Master Of None (7), and Mr. Hustle (10) can all show various degrees of speed or pressing tactics.
With multiple forward types drawn inside and out, an honest to quick pace is likely, which could set the table nicely for midpack and deep closers such as Vanzzy (4), Agarramesipuedes (5), Balantyne (9), We Ready (11), and What A Blast (12). Trips will be crucial given the large field and first-turn traffic.
Key Contenders
Mr. Hustle (10) from the Ness barn with Yedsit Hazlewood is a central contender; he drops to a realistic level and can sit a pressing or stalking trip just outside the early speed. His age is high at nine, but Ness's management and the distance fit make Mr. Hustle (10) very dangerous in this group.
Vanzzy (4) for Michael Pino with Luis Ocasio is a capable closer with back class who can be very effective in this kind of large-field 5000 claiming route. If the pace collapses, Vanzzy (4) could roll late at a decent price.
Secondary Choices
Keithsendshelloooo (2) for Jorge Diaz with Dexter Haddock is capable of securing a rail trip, either on the lead or in the pocket, and that makes him a dangerous player if the pace is controlled. Alilnalot (3) for Ernesto Padilla-Preciado and Jorge Vargas Jr. is another who could be up close early and hang around long enough to get a slice.
Balantyne (9) for Silvino Ramirez with Eliseo Ruiz is an interesting midpack type who could get a good outside trip and make a late run; he must be respected in exotics. We Ready (11) for Bernard Dunham with Andrew Wolfsont and What A Blast (12) for Alan Bedard with Francisco Martinez both have closing styles suited to this pace setup.
Longshots
Assembly Point (1) for Philip Aristone with Mychel Sanchez and English Painter (6) for Jonathaniel Badillo-Casado with Luis Rivera might end up overbet if they are sent from the inside; both could get caught in a duel and are more appealing as underneath plays. Master Of None (7) for Kieron Magee with Jose Vargas is a middling longshot who could improve second off or third off a layoff.
Agarramesipuedes (5) for Silvino Ramirez with Melvis Gonzalez is a wild-card closer that could pick them up late if the field comes back, though he seems better for minor awards.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Given the likely strong pace, a closer such as Vanzzy (4) or Balantyne (9), combined with the class and connections of Mr. Hustle (10), makes sense as the core of horizontal tickets. Use Mr. Hustle (10) as an A-level horse with Vanzzy (4) and Balantyne (9) as co-A or B+.
Vertical wagers can focus on Mr. Hustle (10) and Vanzzy (4) on top, with Balantyne (9), Keithsendshelloooo (2), We Ready (11), and What A Blast (12) in second and third. Including one or two of the pace horses like Assembly Point (1) or Alilnalot (3) in the third slot could capture a busted but persistent speed horse at a price.
Selections
Win: Mr. Hustle (10)
Place: Vanzzy (4)
Show: Balantyne (9)
Jockey Notes and Insights
Parx's jockey colony is deep and competitive, and several riders appear prominently on today's card in live spots. Ruben Silvera is one of the most consistent and aggressive riders at Parx, with mounts like Otter Mischief (3) in Race 3, Punch And Judy (3) in Race 7, and Zoning Order (7) in Race 9, all of which are logical contenders with his well-timed rides.
Mychel Sanchez is another top local rider, appearing in key spots such as Whoosh (1) in Race 1, Who's The King (5) in Race 3, Magical Trick (4) in Race 5, Augustine Red (9) in Race 6, and Check My Six (3) in Race 8, and Mr. Hustle (10) in Race 10; he excels with horses that can sit just off the pace and finish strongly. Frankie Pennington remains one of the best gate riders and pace judges; notable mounts include Very Bad Guy (3) in Race 4, Girl Dynamite (1) in Race 5, and It's Game Time (4) in Race 8.
Yedsit Hazlewood continues to get important opportunities from the Ness barn, including Doomed (8) in Race 1, Lighten (1) in Race 7, Bold Endeavor (1) in Race 8, Society Ball (8) in Race 9, and Mr. Hustle (10) in Race 10, and his seven-pound claim in some races provides a strategic weight edge and helps secure forward positions. Andy Hernandez and Silvestre Gonzalez are capable strong finish riders; Hernandez has live mounts like Otter Mischief (3), Chuck's Law (6), Avatude (6), Preach It Warrior (6), and others, while Gonzalez rides key closers and tactical horses such as Gotmistyonthemind (2), Chance (6), Thirtyninered (7), Tricolour (2), Popover Gal (2), and Balantyne (9).
Dexter Haddock is in several interesting spots with Lucky Capo (1) in Race 4, Girl Dynamite (1) in Race 5, Honorisia (2) in Race 7, Thegoddessofsnakes (3) in Race 9, and Keithsendshelloooo (2) in Race 10, and his familiarity with the course and ability to coax speed or finish depending on instructions makes him a important factor in pace scenarios.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Jamie Ness is the most prominent trainer on this card, with multiple strong favorites or top contenders including Doomed (8) in Race 1, All American Rod (1) in Race 3, Lighten (1) in Race 7, Bold Endeavor (1) and It's Game Time (4) in Race 8, Society Ball (8) in Race 9, and Augustine Red (9) and Mr. Hustle (10) in Races 6 and 10. Ness tends to place his horses aggressively, aiming for wins rather than long campaigns at one level, and his runners often show improved fitness and tactical speed, which suits the Parx dirt course well.
J. Tyler Servis is another key local trainer with strong entrants like Skull Honor (10) in Race 1, Laugh Like Lucy (8) in Race 5, Grand Daniel (7) in Race 6, and others; his horses often get sharp, forward trips and are treated seriously whenever they appear in lower- to mid-level claimers. Scott Lake, a long-time Parx presence, has notable runners such as Very Bad Guy (3) in Race 4 and Rerally (10) in Race 6, and he remains dangerous with older claimers and maiden claimers especially when paired with a top rider like Silvera or Haddock.
Robert Reid Jr. is especially effective in maiden special weights and better maiden races, making Union Doos (5) in Race 7 an important filly to respect. Trainers like Howard Brown Jr., Ernesto Padilla-Preciado, Michael Pino, Louis Linder Jr., and Guadalupe Guerrero collectively handle a large share of the claiming stock at Parx and frequently win when their horses are placed correctly and receive clean trips.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
In terms of multi-race wagering, several logical “spine” legs emerge across the card. Race 3 with Otter Mischief (3) and the Ness pair in Race 6, especially Augustine Red (9), offer strong potential single or two-deep legs in early and middle horizontals. Race 7's maiden special weight, with Punch And Judy (3) and Union Doos (5) as co-keys, can serve as a separator leg later in the card, particularly in late Pick 4 and Pick 5 structures.
An example late Pick 4 structure (Races 7–10) could lean on Punch And Judy (3) and Union Doos (5) in Race 7; Bold Endeavor (1), It's Game Time (4), and Check My Six (3) in Race 8; Society Ball (8), Thegoddessofsnakes (3), and Zoning Order (7) in Race 9; and Mr. Hustle (10), Vanzzy (4), Balantyne (9), and Keithsendshelloooo (2) in Race 10, with budget-driven trimming as needed. In early Pick 5s starting with Race 1, using Skull Honor (10), Doomed (8), and Whoosh (1) in Race 1, Briscoe County (4) and English Elsa (7) in Race 2, and Otter Mischief (3) plus the Ness pair in Race 3 gives a strong base for building.
Value plays to watch include Whoosh (1) in Race 1 if dismissed against more obvious Ness/Servis horses; Alice Fantastic (1) in Race 2 if the pace scenario favors the rail; Lucky Capo (1) in Race 4 if the inside is playing well; and Tricolour (2) in Race 8 dropping from higher-level claimers. Deep-closer prices like Zoning Order (7) in Race 9 and Balantyne (9) in Race 10 could significantly increase trifecta or Pick 3 payouts if a hot pace materializes.
Given the tendencies of the Parx dirt surface, leaning modestly toward inside-forward trips in the absence of obvious bias is sensible, but it is always wise to adjust live if early races show clear patterns. Watching how riders like Silvera, Sanchez, Pennington, and Hazlewood are riding the track in the first few races will help refine pace and bias reads for the remainder of the card.
✓ Positives:Hot trainer - high ITM rate (32%). Hot jockey — high ITM rate (52%). Closer/presser in a race with pace pressure — ideal race setup for late runners. Fourth race back from a 129-day layoff — often the peak fitness race. Strong speed 2 back (68), modest dip last out (56) — form reversal angle, ready to bounce back to top form.