Get more in-depth analysis for all races and enjoy many other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts and are generally more accurate.
Penn National hosts a nine-race card on Thursday evening, featuring a mix of claiming and starter optional claiming events for fillies, mares, and geldings across various levels. The card begins at 5:45 PM EST with a starter optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Seven of the nine races are run at six furlongs on the main track, with a one-mile race in Race 6 offering routing action. Purses range from $11,000 to $34,000, with the second race, a maiden special weight, offering the highest purse of the evening.
The card mainly features lower-level claiming horses, with several races limited to horses that haven’t won since May or August. This opens up chances for form reversals and longshot bets. Multiple scratches have been reported across several races, with horses scratched for various reasons including veterinary issues and track conditions.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast calls for partly sunny conditions with temperatures reaching a high near 51 degrees Fahrenheit during the late afternoon and evening racing hours. Overnight lows will drop to around 40 degrees with a chance of showers developing later in the evening, though precipitation probability remains at 50 percent after racing concludes.
Current track conditions are listed as fair with temperatures at 28 degrees Fahrenheit in the morning hours, warming significantly by post time. The main dirt track should be fast for the evening card, with no major weather issues affecting racing conditions. The cool but dry conditions favor front-running speed types that can establish position early without using too much energy.
Penn National’s dirt track tends to favor early speed in sprint races, as the stretch to the first turn is relatively short. This layout allows horses that break alertly to secure good early positions without much effort. Post position data from 2019 shows that stall four was the most successful, with 18.7 percent of winners, while stalls five and three also performed well at 17.1 percent and 16 percent, respectively. Inside posts one and two have yielded slightly lower results, with the rail winning just 11.8 percent.
Race 1: Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time
5:45 PM EST
The opening event restricted to fillies and mares three years old and upward at six furlongs on dirt presents a competitive six-horse field. Entries must have started for a claiming price of $16,000 or less and never won two races. The allowance structure provides two-pound weight breaks for non-winners since October 20.
Pace Analysis
Love and Kisses shows the fastest early speed profile with 42 percent win probability and 71 percent place probability according to handicapping models. The filly won her career debut impressively at 5.5 furlongs and projects as the likely pacesetter. Eleni typically runs mid-pack before closing while Cruzin Anna shows similar tactical patterns. This sets up a moderate pace scenario with a single speed type potentially controlling fractions.
Key Contenders
Love and Kisses debuts for connections after winning her only career start by defeating seven rivals at 5.5 furlongs over this same Penn National surface. The three-year-old filly showed 100 percent in-the-money consistency in her single outing, rating as the fastest closer in the field. Jockey David Cora sports a 19 percent win rate with 54 percent in-the-money finishes at the current meet, while trainer Bruce Kravets maintains a 16 percent strike rate with 45 percent placement. The morning line favorite at 3-1 carries just 122 pounds and projects to control a soft pace.
Cruzin Anna offers value as a four-year-old with 12 career starts producing one win, two seconds, and five thirds for lifetime earnings exceeding $61,000. Recent form at Penn National includes a third-place finish at this distance followed by turf efforts. The mid-pack closer shows 21 percent win probability with 45 percent place probability according to speed figures. Ricardo Chiappe rides with a 14 percent win rate while trainer Flint Stites hits at 14 percent.
Secondary Choices
Eleni has earned over $88,000 from 11 career starts with one victory, two runner-up efforts, and six third-place finishes. The three-year-old filly shows 16 percent win probability with 35 percent place probability. Recent form includes a fourth-place finish at six furlongs, a third at one mile, and a victory at six furlongs. The mid-pack closer benefits from Julio Hernandez in the saddle, as the leading rider sports a 21 percent win rate with 52 percent in-the-money finishes. Trainer Paulina Sinnefia maintains a 15 percent strike rate.
Dancing for Jack won her recent start at six furlongs on the Laurel dirt, defeating 11 rivals while showing improved tactical speed. The three-year-old has earned over $61,000 from eight starts with one win, one second, and two thirds. The slower closer draws post four and carries 122 pounds under Emilio Flores, who maintains a 17 percent win rate.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Love and Kisses represents the logical single in rolling exotic wagers given her dominant debut performance and favorable pace scenario. The filly’s 99 percent show probability suggests exceptional value in exacta and trifecta wagers keying her on top with Cruzin Anna and Eleni underneath. A straight win wager at projected 3-1 odds offers fair value. Exacta combinations using 3-6-1 provide coverage of the most probable outcomes.
Selections
Win: Love and Kisses
Place: Cruzin Anna
Show: Eleni
Race 2: Maiden Special Weight
Post Time
6:14 PM EST
A competitive nine-horse maiden special weight for fillies and mares three years old and upward at six furlongs carries a purse of $34,000. The field features several horses with multiple starts seeking their first career victory, along with some lightly raced prospects showing recent improvement.
Pace Analysis
The race projects a contested early pace with multiple stalking types. Vino Amore and Secret Journey both show fast stalker running styles, while Humoresque rates as the fastest stalker in the field. Caitlin the Great typically employs a closing style as the fastest closer with 27 percent win probability and 56 percent place probability. Multiple horses vying for early position should set up a moderate to quick tempo favoring closers.
Key Contenders
Caitlin the Great emerges as the top selection with strong place and show probabilities of 56 percent and 86 percent respectively. The three-year-old filly has finished second in three of four career starts, demonstrating remarkable consistency without finding the winner’s circle. Recent efforts at Laurel show back-to-back runner-up finishes in route races, and the cutback to six furlongs may provide the tactical advantage needed. Julio Hernandez takes the mount while trainer Edward Allard maintains a 19 percent win rate with 44 percent in-the-money finishes.
Humoresque shows tactical speed as the fastest stalker with 18 percent win probability and 39 percent place probability. The three-year-old filly has earned over $31,000 from four starts despite never finishing better than third. Recent form includes a fourth at Delaware on turf followed by a third on the Penn National lawn. Jockey Angel Cruz sports a 14 percent win rate, while trainer Cathal Lynch excels at 25 percent wins with an impressive 65 percent in-the-money rate. The 7-2 morning line suggests value.
Secondary Choices
Secret Journey has banked over $41,000 from four career attempts while finishing second once and third twice. The four-year-old mare shows consistent fast stalker tendencies with 21 percent win probability. Recent form shows a second at six furlongs followed by a third and fifth at the same distance. David Cora rides with his solid 19 percent strike rate.
Vino Amore has earned over $34,000 from nine starts despite winless status, posting two seconds and five thirds for impressive 56 percent in-the-money consistency. The three-year-old filly recently finished second at six furlongs after turf and route attempts. Yabriel Ramos handles the mount with a 16 percent win rate.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The competitive nature and large field size make this race ideal for boxed exactas and trifectas. Caitlin the Great’s consistency suggests keying her in the second position of exactas with Humoresque, Secret Journey, and Peacefulezfeeling. A win wager on Humoresque at projected 7-2 odds provides overlay value given trainer Lynch’s exceptional success rate.
Selections
Win: Humoresque
Place: Caitlin the Great
Show: Secret Journey
Race 3: Claiming
Post Time
6:43 PM EST
Nine fillies and mares compete in a $10,000 claiming race at six furlongs for horses that have not won since August 20 or never won four races. The allowance conditions provide two-pound breaks for non-winners since October 20 and four pounds for non-winners since September 20.
Pace Analysis
The pace scenario appears moderate with several mid-pack runners and closers. No dominant early speed types emerge from the field, suggesting a tactical race where positioning into the turn becomes critical. The absence of confirmed pace pressers allows stalking types to conserve energy for the stretch drive.
Key Contenders
Prussian Blue brings the highest weight at 123 pounds as the likely favorite based on class and recent form. The five-year-old mare trained by Konstantinos Harigeorgiou pairs with jockey Inoel Beato for a combination seeking to capitalize on the favorable pace scenario. Recent efforts at this claiming level suggest readiness for a forward move.
Carroll Girl represents trainer Timothy Kreiser, who maintains a strong 20 percent win rate with 60 percent in-the-money finishes. The six-year-old mare carries 121 pounds under Angel Cruz and shows familiarity with this claiming level. Consistency at Penn National provides an edge in competitive claiming races.
Secondary Choices
Charm Alarm has experience at this distance and surface while trainer Bernard Houghton provides solid conditioning. David Cora’s 19 percent win rate and tactical awareness make this six-year-old mare a live upset possibility at potential square odds.
Peace Out drops in class while adding apprentice jockey Vladimir Diaz, whose weight allowance provides a significant advantage in a competitive field. The seven-year-old mare shows 121 pounds on the scale and benefits from trainer William Meister’s tactical approach.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The wide-open nature of this claiming event suggests spreading action across multiple combinations. Exacta boxes using Prussian Blue, Carroll Girl, Charm Alarm, and Peace Out provide coverage of the most likely outcomes. The race offers value hunting opportunities given the competitive claiming level and evenly matched runners.
Selections
Win: Prussian Blue
Place: Carroll Girl
Show: Charm Alarm
Race 4: Claiming
Post Time
7:12 PM EST
Eight fillies and mares contest a $4,000 claiming sprint at six furlongs for horses that have not won two races since May 20. The purse totals $12,000 with weight allowances for non-winners since October 20.
Pace Analysis
The low claiming level produces an unpredictable pace scenario with multiple horses showing inconsistent running styles. Form cycles at this level create opportunities for sharp reversals, though reliable pace analysis becomes challenging. Tactical speed and class dropping connections provide the strongest handicapping angles.
Key Contenders
Practicality trains with Amy Albright and draws Ricardo Chiappe as rider. The six-year-old mare carries top weight of 125 pounds, suggesting connections view this as a competitive spot. Chiappe’s 14 percent win rate and 55 percent in-the-money finishes provide an edge in low-level claiming races.
Arrogante shows recent activity at Penn National under trainer Brandon Kulp, whose 30 percent win rate leads all trainers at the meet. The five-year-old mare pairs with Angel Cruz and benefits from familiarity with the surface and distance. Class consistency at this level makes her a formidable contender.
Secondary Choices
Bonita Lassie represents trainer Bruce Kravets with Yabriel Ramos aboard. The seven-year-old mare carries 123 pounds and shows experience at this claiming level. Recent form suggests competitive efforts against similar company.
Bold Baby has shown recent improvement and benefits from Dexter Haddock’s riding skills. The four-year-old filly carries 123 pounds for trainer Silvino Ramirez and represents a potential upset candidate if pace dynamics favor her running style.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Low-level claiming races present challenging wagering propositions due to form unreliability. Focus on trainer and jockey statistics rather than recent speed figures. Exacta boxes using the top four choices provide reasonable coverage while limiting exposure to unpredictable outcomes.
Selections
Win: Practicality
Place: Arrogante
Show: Bonita Lassie
Race 5: Claiming
Post Time
7:41 PM EST
Seven geldings and horses compete at six furlongs in a $4,000 claiming event for horses that have not won since May 20. The purse totals $11,000 in this competitive sprint.
Pace Analysis
I Once Stood Alone and Cajun Vibes both show fast stalker running styles with identical 18 percent win probability and 44 percent place probability. Warrior Ted rates as a mid-pack leader while Kaz Sweet Heist employs the fastest deep closing style with impressive 32 percent win probability, 75 percent place probability, and 95 percent show probability. The dual speed types should establish a moderate tempo before the closers engage.
Key Contenders
Kaz Sweet Heist dominates the speed figures as the morning line favorite at 2-1 odds. The six-year-old horse has earned over $305,000 from 33 career starts with six victories, 17 runner-up finishes, and 20 third-place efforts for an exceptional 61 percent in-the-money rate. Recent form shows consecutive second-place finishes at Penn National over six furlongs. David Cora rides with his reliable 19 percent win rate while trainer Paulina Sinnefia maintains a 15 percent strike rate. The fastest deep closer should benefit from the expected pace scenario.
Warrior Ted brings a strong resume with $100,000 in career earnings from 12 starts producing three wins, three seconds, and five thirds for a 42 percent in-the-money rate. The four-year-old gelding shows 18 percent win probability with 44 percent place probability as a mid-pack leader. Recent efforts include a fourth at six furlongs, a fifth, and a fifth at one mile. Angel Rodriguez takes the mount for trainer Brandon Kulp, representing the meet’s leading combination with Rodriguez at 25 percent wins and Kulp at 30 percent.
Secondary Choices
I Once Stood Alone has banked over $209,000 from 41 career starts with six victories and 31 in-the-money finishes for a solid 44 percent placement rate. The five-year-old gelding shows fast stalker tendencies under Julio Hernandez, who leads all Penn National riders at 21 percent wins with 52 percent in-the-money finishes. Trainer Elisha Perez excels at 31 percent wins with 52 percent placements. Recent form shows a seventh, fifth, and victory at this distance.
Cajun Vibes adds appeal with four wins from 16 starts for a 25 percent strike rate and 62 percent in-the-money consistency. The four-year-old gelding earned over $85,000 while showing fast stalker tactics. Recent efforts include a fourth at six furlongs, seventh, and fourth. Vladimir Diaz rides for trainer Leslie Montford.
Longshots
I Know Map shows 23 percent win probability despite 7-2 morning line odds. The four-year-old gelding has earned nearly $195,000 from 20 starts with four wins and 20 percent strike rate. Jockey Jomar Torres maintains a strong 17 percent win rate with 45 percent in-the-money finishes. Recent form shows a fourth, second, and fifth at six furlongs, suggesting current readiness.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Kaz Sweet Heist’s dominant speed figures and exceptional consistency make him the logical single in all horizontal wagers. The 95 percent show probability suggests nearly assured placement. Key the favorite over Warrior Ted, I Once Stood Alone, and I Know Map in exactas and trifectas. A win wager at projected 2-1 odds offers fair value given the horse’s recent form and favorable pace scenario. The Rodriguez-Kulp combination on Warrior Ted warrants respect in exotic wagering.
Selections
Win: Kaz Sweet Heist
Place: Warrior Ted
Show: I Once Stood Alone
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming
Post Time
8:10 PM EST
Seven fillies and mares compete at one mile in a starter optional claiming event for horses that have started for $16,000 or less and never won three races. The purse totals $21,000 with allowances for non-winners at a mile since October 20 and September 20.
Pace Analysis
First Pearl and Nanisca both show slower leader tendencies, suggesting they will contest the early pace. Enigmatic rates as a slower leader while Blo by the Field and Why Not Grace employ stalking tactics. Casa Juanita and Zeena Swift close from behind as the fastest deep and slower closer respectively. The dual pace pressers should establish honest fractions favoring closers in the stretch.
Key Contenders
Zeena Swift shows the highest win probability at 35 percent with impressive 67 percent place probability and 99 percent show probability. The four-year-old filly has earned over $182,000 from 18 starts with two wins, seven seconds, and eight thirds. Recent form at Woodbine includes a fourth at seven furlongs, second at 6.5 furlongs, and eighth at seven furlongs. The slower closer should benefit from the expected pace pressure. Luis Ocasio rides with a 15 percent win rate.
Casa Juanita offers strong value with 30 percent win probability, 61 percent place probability, and 92 percent show probability. The three-year-old filly has banked over $91,000 from 14 starts with two victories, eight runner-up efforts, and 10 thirds for exceptional 71 percent in-the-money consistency. Recent form shows a second at six furlongs followed by two sixth-place finishes on turf. David Cora handles riding duties for trainer Bruce Kravets in this route event.
Secondary Choices
First Pearl brings impressive recent form with back-to-back victories at Laurel over one mile. The three-year-old filly has earned over $122,000 from 21 starts with three wins and 71 percent in-the-money rate. The slower leader carries just 115 pounds under apprentice Yedsit Hazlewood, whose 28 percent win rate leads the colony. Trainer Gina Perri maintains a 20 percent strike rate with 60 percent placements.
Enigmatic won her most recent start at Penn National over one mile after struggling at Baq. The four-year-old filly has earned over $251,000 from 17 starts with two wins and 41 percent in-the-money consistency. Angel Rodriguez rides for connections, though trainer statistics unavailable.
Longshots
Why Not Grace has won her last two starts at Laurel over 1 1/16 miles, demonstrating improved form and route proficiency. The three-year-old filly earned over $161,000 from 17 starts with four victories and 24 percent strike rate. Raul Mena rides at 9 percent wins while trainer Michael Gorham maintains 12 percent.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The route distance and competitive field create opportunities for longshot plays. Zeena Swift’s 99 percent show probability makes her a must-use in trifectas and superfectas. Box exactas using Zeena Swift, Casa Juanita, First Pearl, and Enigmatic. Consider superfecta wheels using Zeena Swift on top over the field. Why Not Grace merits saver consideration given her winning streak, though the class test looms large.
Selections
Win: Zeena Swift
Place: Casa Juanita
Show: First Pearl
Race 7: Claiming
Post Time
8:39 PM EST
Seven geldings and horses contest a $4,000 claiming sprint at six furlongs for horses that have not won since May 20. The purse totals $11,000 in this competitive overnight event.
Pace Analysis
The race appears tactical with no dominant speed types. Multiple horses show mid-pack and closing tendencies, suggesting a moderate tempo where positioning becomes critical. The absence of confirmed pace pressers favors horses with tactical speed and strong finishes.
Key Contenders
Warrior’s Cause represents trainer Elisha Perez, who excels at 31 percent wins with 52 percent in-the-money finishes. The five-year-old gelding pairs with Yabriel Ramos and benefits from competitive recent form at Penn National. Class consistency at this claiming level provides an advantage.
Mischief Warrior trains with Jose Bobadilla and draws Maicol Inirio as rider. The five-year-old gelding carries 125 pounds and shows familiarity with this surface and distance. Recent efforts suggest competitive positioning against similar company.
Secondary Choices
Don’t Losemymoney was scratched from a recent start due to veterinary illness but returns for trainer Cody Beattie. The seven-year-old gelding shows experience at this level under Inoel Beato. Health status requires monitoring before wagering.
Bourbon Boss ships from Laurel where he was also-eligible in his last start. The four-year-old colt trained by Jamie Ness draws Martin Chuan as rider. Class evaluation remains uncertain given limited Penn National experience.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The low claiming level and uncertain form lines make this race challenging for confident wagering. Focus on trainer statistics and recent health indicators. Small exacta boxes using the top four choices limit exposure while providing reasonable coverage. Consider passing this race for exotic sequence plays.
Selections
Win: Warrior’s Cause
Place: Mischief Warrior
Show: Strasse
Race 8: Claiming
Post Time
9:08 PM EST
Seven geldings and horses compete at six furlongs in a $4,000 claiming event for horses that have not won two races since May 20. The purse totals $12,000 with allowances for non-winners since October 20.
Pace Analysis
Shakin Loose trains with Panagiotis Synnefias and draws Angel Rodriguez for the powerhouse combination. The four-year-old gelding carries top weight of 125 pounds, suggesting connections view this as a competitive opportunity. Rodriguez’s 25 percent win rate makes any mount dangerous.
Key Contenders
Shakin Loose emerges as the morning line favorite based on the Rodriguez-Synnefias combination. The four-year-old gelding shows recent form at Penn National and benefits from top connections. Class consistency at this claiming level provides a significant edge over the competitive field.
Pentatonic represents trainer Bruce Kravets with Yabriel Ramos handling riding duties. The four-year-old gelding carries 123 pounds and shows familiarity with Penn National’s surface. Recent efforts suggest competitive positioning in this claiming race.
Secondary Choices
Boss Holiday trains with Amy Albright while drawing Inoel Beato as rider. The five-year-old gelding carries 123 pounds and benefits from recent racing activity. Albright’s conditioning provides confidence in competitive claiming races.
Mighty Minion was scratched from his most recent start due to veterinary illness but returns for trainer Jose Bobadilla. The five-year-old gelding pairs with Maicol Inirio in a combination seeking redemption. Health status monitoring remains critical before wagering.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
The Rodriguez factor makes Shakin Loose the logical single in rolling exotic wagers. The leading rider’s 25 percent strike rate and tactical awareness provide significant advantages in low-level claiming races. Key the favorite over Pentatonic, Boss Holiday, and Mighty Minion in exactas and trifectas. A win wager offers fair value if morning line odds reach 2-1 or better.
Selections
Win: Shakin Loose
Place: Pentatonic
Show: Boss Holiday
Race 9: Claiming
Post Time
9:37 PM EST
Eight geldings compete at six furlongs in a $5,000 claiming race for horses that have never won three races. The purse totals $12,000 with allowances for non-winners since October 20 and September 20.
Pace Analysis
The competitive field features multiple running styles with no clear pace advantage. Several horses show stalking and mid-pack tendencies, suggesting a tactical race where late positioning determines the outcome. The absence of dominant early speed allows tactical riders to conserve energy for the stretch drive.
Key Contenders
Lock Barrel carries top weight of 123 pounds for trainer Kevin Fields with Maicol Inirio aboard. The four-year-old gelding shows recent activity at Penn National and benefits from competitive class positioning. Inirio’s 12 percent win rate and 34 percent in-the-money finishes provide solid rider credentials.
Stifling Heat trains with Konstantinos Harigeorgiou while drawing Wilfredo Corujo as rider. The three-year-old gelding carries 120 pounds, benefiting from the four-pound allowance for non-winners since September 20. The weight advantage provides a tactical edge in a competitive field.
Secondary Choices
Freedom’s Start was scratched from his most recent start due to gate issues but returns for trainer George Albright. The six-year-old gelding pairs with Ricardo Chiappe and carries 121 pounds. Gate behavior monitoring remains important before wagering confidence.
Valore was scratched from his recent Penn National start due to gate issues. The four-year-old gelding trained by Charles DeMario draws Inoel Beato as rider. Recent gate problems raise red flags for bettors seeking reliable propositions.
Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles
Recent scratches due to gate issues create uncertainty in handicapping this finale. Lock Barrel’s top weight assignment suggests trainer confidence, while Stifling Heat’s weight allowance provides tactical advantages. Box exactas using the top four choices while monitoring paddock behavior for gate-scratched runners. Consider passing this race for bankroll preservation after a long card.
Selections
Win: Lock Barrel
Place: Stifling Heat
Show: Freedom’s Start
Jockey Notes and Insights
Angel Rodriguez leads all Penn National riders with a powerful 25 percent win rate and 61 percent in-the-money finishes through the current meet. The accomplished rider pairs frequently with trainer Brandon Kulp, forming the track’s most dominant combination. Rodriguez rides Enigmatic in Race 6, Shakin Loose in Race 8, and has multiple mounts throughout the card. Recent victories demonstrate his ability to rate horses effectively while timing finishes perfectly.
David Cora ranks among the colony’s leading riders with 71 victories from 391 starts, maintaining a 19 percent win rate with 54 percent in-the-money consistency. The veteran jockey has surpassed 2,500 career victories and shows exceptional versatility across all race types. Cora rides Love and Kisses in Race 1, Secret Journey in Race 2, Casa Juanita in Race 6, and Kaz Sweet Heist in Race 5. His tactical awareness and finishing strength make him particularly effective in competitive claiming races.
Julio Hernandez leads the jockey standings with 49 victories from 200 mounts, posting an impressive 21 percent win rate with 52 percent in-the-money finishes. The accomplished rider excels on closers and horses requiring patient tactics. Hernandez rides Eleni in Race 1, Caitlin the Great in Race 2, and I Once Stood Alone in Race 5. Recent form shows consistent success across all race classifications.
Jomar Torres ranks second in total victories with 66 wins from 368 starts, maintaining a 17 percent strike rate with 45 percent in-the-money consistency. Torres demonstrates particular effectiveness in route races and tactical sprint scenarios. The rider shows strong recent form and pairs well with multiple training connections.
Yabriel Ramos has secured 44 victories from 335 mounts, posting a 16 percent win rate with 48 percent in-the-money finishes. Ramos shows versatility across race types and excels on horses requiring patient handling. The rider pairs effectively with multiple training barns and demonstrates consistent recent form.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Brandon Kulp dominates the Penn National trainer standings with an exceptional 30 percent win rate and 64 percent in-the-money success rate from 320 starts through November 18. The leading conditioner has earned over $126,000 and pairs frequently with Angel Rodriguez for maximum effectiveness. Kulp trains Warrior Ted in Race 5, multiple horses across the card, and demonstrates particular success in claiming races. His horses consistently show sharp form and tactical readiness.
Erin McClellan maintains a 29 percent win rate with 55 percent in-the-money consistency, ranking among the meet’s leading trainers. McClellan saddles Dancing for Jack and Quivira Crane in Race 1, demonstrating versatility across race classifications. The barn shows particular effectiveness with fillies and mares in claiming and starter allowance conditions.
Timothy Kreiser posts a 20 percent win rate with an impressive 60 percent in-the-money consistency. The veteran trainer shows particular success in competitive claiming races and tactical sprint scenarios. Kreiser’s horses typically show sharp recent form and benefit from patient conditioning approaches.
Cathal Lynch excels with a 25 percent win rate and exceptional 65 percent in-the-money finishes. The trainer saddles Humoresque in Race 2 and demonstrates particular effectiveness in maiden races. Lynch’s conditioning produces consistent improvement patterns and sharp recent form.
Paulina Sinnefia maintains a 15 percent strike rate with 50 percent in-the-money finishes. The trainer saddles Eleni in Race 1 and Kaz Sweet Heist in Race 5, showing versatility across race types. Sinnefia’s horses typically show consistent form patterns and benefit from tactical race placement.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The evening card offers several single-race betting opportunities alongside profitable sequence plays. Love and Kisses in Race 1 provides the most confident win proposition based on dominant debut performance and favorable pace scenario. The filly’s morning line odds of 3-1 suggest fair value for straight win wagering. Kaz Sweet Heist in Race 5 represents another strong single given exceptional speed figures and 95 percent show probability.
Humoresque in Race 2 offers overlay potential at projected 7-2 odds given trainer Cathal Lynch’s exceptional 25 percent win rate and 65 percent in-the-money consistency. The maiden special weight’s competitive nature creates value opportunities for bettors willing to accept moderate risk. Zeena Swift in Race 6 provides similar value at projected 5-1 odds given her 99 percent show probability and favorable pace scenario.
Multi-race sequence plays offer the strongest profit potential. Consider Pick 3 wagers beginning in Race 1 using Love and Kisses as a single with Humoresque and Caitlin the Great in Race 2, then spreading in Race 3. The Pick 4 covering Races 5-8 allows using Kaz Sweet Heist and Warrior Ted in Race 5, spreading in Race 6 with Zeena Swift, Casa Juanita, and First Pearl, passing Race 7 due to uncertainty, then singling Shakin Loose in Race 8.
Daily Double opportunities exist connecting Race 5 to Race 6 using Kaz Sweet Heist with the top four in the route race. The moderate pool sizes at Penn National create value opportunities for sharp handicappers willing to construct creative wager structures. Exacta boxes in competitive races like Race 2, Race 3, and Race 6 provide reasonable risk-reward scenarios.
Late Pick 4 wagers covering Races 6-9 allow aggressive players to target the sequence by singling Zeena Swift in Race 6, spreading in Race 7, using Shakin Loose in Race 8, and boxing the top four in Race 9. Conservative bettors should focus on win wagering in Races 1, 5, and 8 where confident selections exist. The low claiming levels in several races create unpredictable scenarios best approached with caution or avoided entirely for bankroll preservation.
