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Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet for Colonial Downs – Racing News and Analysis for March 13, 2026

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Colonial Downs in New Kent, Virginia, runs the second day of its three-day March spring meet today, Friday, March 13, 2026. The eight-race all-dirt card is headlined by two $150,000 Virginia-restricted overnight handicaps: the Boston Handicap for older males at seven furlongs (Race 6) and the Stellar Wind Handicap for fillies and mares at six furlongs (Race 7). Supporting features include a $100,000 allowance for three-year-olds (Race 3), two $80,000 allowance races (Races 4 and 5), a $75,000 maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies (Race 2), a $93,750 Virginia-restricted maiden special weight for three-year-olds (Race 8), and a $50,000 Virginia-restricted maiden claimer for fillies and mares to open the card (Race 1).

All races today are on the main dirt track, a 1 1/4-mile oval that has become the focus of this early spring meet while the turf course remains inactive in March. The program is built around Virginia-bred, Virginia-sired, or Virginia-certified runners, especially in the two feature handicaps.

Recent scratch history notes include Hay Grace Brennan (5) and Irish B Goode (1) in Race 1, Making Daisys (6) in Race 2, Gluckstadt (7) in Race 5, and Cool Customer (12) in Race 8 having prior vet or trainer scratches at other tracks, which may be relevant to current fitness assessments.​

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for New Kent today calls for mostly cloudy skies with daytime highs in the upper 50s to near 60 degrees Fahrenheit and lows near the upper 30s to low 40s, with essentially no precipitation expected. Winds are projected from the south at approximately 10 to 20 mph, which should not materially impact race dynamics. With dry conditions leading into the card and no rain in the forecast, the main track is expected to play fast throughout the day. Results from Thursday's opening card, run under similar conditions, indicated a fair but slightly speed-favoring surface, typical for Colonial's dirt configuration.

Track Bias and Post Position Profile

Colonial's dirt sprints (generally up to seven furlongs) have shown a strong preference for forwardly placed runners. Since 2021, approximately 48% of dirt sprint winners have been early-speed types, with an additional 40% coming from stalking positions within a few lengths of the lead; deep closers account for only about 10% of sprint winners. Post position effects at six furlongs have been relatively balanced, with a mild edge toward middle gates, while the rail has been somewhat vulnerable when the inside becomes crowded.

In dirt routes, the long run to the first turn reduces the importance of the draw and shifts the advantage toward stalkers. About 55% of route winners have come from pressing or stalking trips, 33% from front-runners, and only around 13% from deep closers. Inside posts 1 through 3 in routes have performed slightly above baseline for stalking types due to ground-saving trips into the first turn. At seven furlongs, a hybrid profile emerges: early pace is still important, but winners frequently come from pressing positions and from middle to outside posts, especially when internal fractions are strong.

Given today's expected fast surface and typical Colonial patterns, horses with tactical speed or the ability to sit just off the pace are generally preferred, while one-run closers need a genuine pace collapse to be fully effective.

Race 1 – Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Key contenders center around Chance To Party (2), a 3-2 morning line favorite with a clear class and speed edge based on prior maiden and maiden-claiming efforts in tougher company. Redheadedstepchild (6) is a logical second-tier contender dropping from maiden special weights, with expected improvement as a three-year-old after a long layoff. Ithadtobeblu (4) has some base ability but needs a step forward after troubled prior efforts.

Secondary and longshot mentions include Hay Grace Brennan (5), a first-time starter from a strong local barn but with a recent vet scratch; Anita Glassofwine (7), an improving type returning from a layoff; Radiant Tones (3), an experienced but low-ceiling maiden; Irish B Goode (1), an older mare from a cold barn; and C C Commander (8), who has shown limited form to date.​

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (1 Mile, Dirt)

Tahlequah (4) and Making Daisys (6) form the core of the major contenders. Tahlequah (4) owns the top class rating and has run back-to-back strong route efforts for a high-percentage barn, showing reliability and scope for modest improvement. Making Daisys (6), a well-bred filly for Wesley Ward, has shown enough ability in her debut to be dangerous, and she benefits from trainer angles such as blinkers off and first-time Lasix, both high-percentage moves in this stable.

Chanceofalifetime (3) is a key secondary player off a strong Gulfstream debut and projects to be competitive with natural second-start progression. East Bay (1) has a strong pedigree and connections but needs to rebound markedly from a poor debut. Mystery Date (2) and Stardust Biggy (5) sit as longer-priced fillies who would need substantial improvement to threaten the main trio, based on prior speed and class figures.

Race 3 – Allowance (VA Restricted 3YO, 5 1/2 Furlongs, Dirt)

Crossingthechannel (3) is a standout in this small field, with significantly higher recent speed and class ratings than his rivals and a dominant maiden win that showcased his front-running ability. He fits Colonial's speed-friendly sprint profile and represents the clear top-tier contender.

G Q Worthy (6) and Ihaveanappforthat (1) form the next tier. G Q Worthy (6) has previously competed in stakes company and owns the second-best class profile, though his form is inconsistent. Ihaveanappforthat (1) is a capable allowance type with solid prior figures and enough early foot to secure a favorable stalking trip from the rail.

Brazilian Conexao (2) has some back class and early speed and could be a nuisance on the front end if he breaks sharply. Bettinonit (4) is an improving colt from a barn having a strong meet but appears slightly below the top pair on figures. This Is The Life (5) has been pace-involved without finishing impactfully and remains more of an outsider.​

Race 4 – Allowance (NW1X, 7 Furlongs, Dirt)

This race is deep and competitive. Keewaydin (3) is a key contender, possessing back-class from graded-stakes placement as a juvenile and entering in a softer allowance spot after a layoff. His tactical speed and mid-gate draw fit the seven-furlong configuration well.

Shadow Surge (4) is a proven front-runner with high pace figures who becomes formidable when allowed to control the tempo, though he has faded when pressured. Surgical Precision (6) is a lightly raced winner returning from a long break for a high-percentage trainer-jockey team and represents a strong upside play if he returns in similar form.

Eastbostonbenny (2) carries one of the better class ratings in the field and comes from a barn that has historically done well at Colonial, making him a serious secondary contender at a likely fair price. Skellig Michael (1), Grim Reaper (7), Jolly By Golly (8), and Fightertown (5) comprise the deeper tier; each has enough ability to hit the frame on their best day but generally lacks the combination of recent figures and upside possessed by the top group.

Race 5 – Allowance (NW1X, 7 Furlongs, Dirt)

Multiverse (1) is an important player here, boasting strong recent figures and multiple runner-up finishes at this level, with his lone negative being a recent fall that connections appear confident he has recovered from. Dr. Park (5) owns the highest class rating and has demonstrated high-level ability in limited starts; his main question is fitness following a long layoff after shipping in from tougher circuits.

Trust Issues (6) and Agreed (2) sit in the next tier. Trust Issues (6) has high pace numbers and consistent allowance form and fits well if the pace does not become too contested. Agreed (2), a one-start maiden winner for a productive barn, possesses a favorable progression profile and may be poised to step forward in his second career start.

Creed's Vision (8) has improved since switching trainers and has recent figures that place him firmly among the competitive mid-tier, especially from an advantageous outside post. Roar Ready (3) is an inconsistent but occasionally fast runner with big pace spikes, while Spring Decision (4) and Gluckstadt (7) project as longer shots requiring significant improvement or favorable race shape to contend late.​

Race 6 – Boston Handicap ($150,000, 7 Furlongs, Dirt)

Lonesome Road (4) is a central figure in the Boston Handicap, coming off two visually impressive and fast dirt victories and making his stakes debut with significant upside still likely. He has shown the ability to control the pace and finish strongly and is well-positioned to capitalize on his current form cycle.

Chipotle (3) is a co-headliner, entering with the highest class rating and consistently strong pace figures, along with recent races against tougher opponents that flatter his form. His tactical speed and resilience make him a serious threat throughout.

Illuminare (7) and Bold Diversion (5) anchor the secondary tier. Illuminare (7) comes from a top barn and has back figures that make him competitive if he returns to peak form off a layoff. Bold Diversion (5) is more of a late-running type who benefits if the early fractions become demanding, though Colonial's sprint profile is not ideal for deep closers.

Falcon Blue (2), Great Heavens (1), and Private Desire (6) round out the field as longer-priced runners. Falcon Blue (2) has some early speed and mid-range figures; Great Heavens (1) shows competitive class ratings but inconsistent recent form; Private Desire (6) appears a cut below the top group on paper while potentially picking up pieces if others falter.​

Race 7 – Stellar Wind Handicap ($150,000, 6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Carmelina (6) brings the strongest overall résumé into the Stellar Wind, with multiple stakes wins and high-level speed figures that clearly place her atop the class ladder. Her main questions are fitness and sharpness off a freshening, not ability.

Conquerthosewecan (5) is a primary alternative, an improving mare who has been knocking on the door at this level and owns figures that place her within striking distance if Carmelina (6) is anything less than fully cranked. Sporting Lady (3) offers an interesting profile as a runner who has recently proved more effective on dirt and fits well at today's distance under a lighter weight assignment.

Roman Grace (7) is a properly priced mid-tier contender with class and speed figures good enough to compete for a placing, especially if she can work out a stalking trip behind multiple speeds. Shkhara Fire (2), Mila Candy (4), Talk To The Judge (8), and Kissedbyanangel (1) compose the wider group of challengers. Shkhara Fire (2) and Talk To The Judge (8) bring pace to the equation, while Mila Candy (4) and Kissedbyanangel (1) require improvement or favorable trips to upend the more established names.​

Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight (VA Restricted 3YO, 6 Furlongs, Dirt)

Pont Aven (6) leads the experienced group, with the best combination of speed and class among the known quantities and a profile suggesting that a maiden win is overdue if he can translate his high pace figures into a complete performance. Love Yourself (8) is another key player, having posted the top class rating in the field from his debut and projecting forward with normal second-start improvement.

Cool Customer (12) offers a mix of upside and risk: he comes from a high-percentage trainer and has competitive figures but must overcome an outside post and the shadow of a recent vet scratch. Hard Stance (3) and Traverse City (5) are first-time starters for capable barns and represent unknown but potentially significant threats; both come from connections that typically have debut runners prepared to compete.

Make It Quick (1), Pharaohs Ghost (9), Chancellorsville (2), Feisty Notion (4), Sweet Spy (7), Vida (10), and Gallo (11) complete a deep field. They mostly project as longer shots needing either substantial improvement or ideal race circumstances, though several possess enough early speed to influence the pace scenario even if they are less likely winners.​

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