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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The afternoon card features a mix of starter sprints, competitive claiming events, and Arkansas-bred maiden races, headlined by the $150,000 American Beauty Stakes for older fillies and mares. Weather conditions are favorable with mostly cloudy skies and a high of 66°F. The dirt track is rated as fast. Historically, Oaklawn sprints favor tactical speed, but recent trends suggest a notable outside flow. Horses drawn in middle to outside gates (posts 7 and outward) have been outperforming expectations, as the ideal trip involves securing a pressing position just off the rail to avoid kickback.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1: Starter Allowance (6 Furlongs)
With the scratch of Talkin in Cursive, the pace will be dictated by Sombra Dorada (1) and Edistrudis (2) from the inside. Tell Me When (7) is the class of the field and draws perfectly on the outside to stalk the leaders. Adiva (3) and Antique Silver (6) are the primary threats to the top choice if the early pace becomes too contested.
Race 2: Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Following the scratch of Pencil Bluff, Coastal Breeze (3) and Splendor Glow (7) are expected to lead the field. Coastal Breeze (3) benefits from significant class relief moving into the claiming ranks. Gun Fire (6) should show improvement in his second start off the layoff, while Irish Whiskey (5) remains a consistent longshot possibility.
Race 3: Claiming (6 Furlongs)
A rapid pace is expected as High Summer (5) and Frolic in the Park (9) vie for the lead. This setup favors She’s Not a Joke (2), who projects to save ground before launching a bid. Bang Bang Fury (6) and Sultry Kitten (7) possess the tactical speed to sit just off the leaders, while Misty Muppet (3) enters as a dangerous out-of-state shipper.
Race 4: Ratings Handicap (6 Furlongs)
The scratches of B Sudd and Kavod leave Innova (9) as the likely lone speed from the outside post. Osbourne (7) is the primary beneficiary of the reduced field, projecting a perfect stalking trip. Normandy Coast (3) adds class to the field, and Henro (6) could factor late if the leaders tire in the closing stages.
Race 5: Claiming (5 1/2 Furlongs)
With Springtown scratched, Tip Toe Joe (1) and Montana Cafe (6) will likely duel early. Sexagenarian (5) is the key contender here, appearing ready for a peak effort from a stalking position. War of Destiny (8) and Skyler (7) provide solid depth to the field, with Montana Cafe (6) holding the potential to pull an upset if left unchallenged.
Race 6: Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Significant scratches (Ravin’s Town, Easy Fast, Copper Echo, and Hedge) have thinned this field. Solevo (1) is the clear pacesetter and the one to catch from the rail. Fifth Avenue (9) should enjoy a clean outside trip, while Cravensworth (3) and String Theory (7) look to improve against a depleted lineup.
Race 7: Claiming (6 Furlongs)
The scratch of Factor That leaves a moderate pace led by Smart With Heart (3) and Tartaria (7). Tartaria (7) stands out with superior speed figures and a versatile running style. My Bossy Lady (11) is well-positioned for the outside bias, while Iuka Miss (1) and Sicilian Grandma (4) round out the competitive secondary options.
Race 8: American Beauty Stakes (6 Furlongs)
The scratches of Tapit Quick and Velvet Devil leave Asternia (2) as the controlling speed in this stakes feature. She is expected to dictate terms without much pressure. Benedetta (3) remains a high-quality threat who will likely be the first to challenge the leader, followed by the class-heavy Gloriette (4) and the longshot Majestic Oops (5).
Race 9: Arkansas-Bred Claiming (6 Furlongs)
A high-pressure pace is anticipated with Courageous Cappen (1) and She’s Storming (3) leading the charge. Wildwood Queen (4) is the key closer in this spot and should thrive on a fast tempo. The Girl in Red (8) and Q’s Your Mama (12) are consistent performers at this level, while Kitiara (2) could show life on the class drop.
Race 10: Arkansas-Bred Maiden Claiming (6 Furlongs)
Highway Seventy (12) and Moneta (14) are expected to set a brisk pace. Like a Diamond (13) is the standout contender, taking a massive class drop that makes her the strongest choice on the card. Tallahassee (1) and Highway Seventy (12) are the most likely to stick around for the minor awards, with Cutenclassy (3) providing longshot appeal.
Jockey and Trainer Notes
The jockey colony is currently led by Cristian Torres and Francisco Arrieta, both of whom excel at navigating the outside flow of the track. Luis Saez and Keith Asmussen also hold several live mounts throughout the day. From the training side, Steve Asmussen and Chris Hartman continue to be the most influential conditioners on the grounds, particularly when utilizing class drops. Mark Casse is another trainer of note, showing high efficiency with horses shipping into the Oaklawn surface.
