Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
The racing scene at Oaklawn Park returns with a massive twelve race program today, headlined by the Grade 3 Southwest Stakes. This card was originally scheduled for late January but was postponed due to winter weather and track closures. The featured event offers fifty qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby, attracting a deep field of sophomores looking to establish themselves on the Triple Crown trail. With a million dollar purse on the line in the Southwest and three hundred thousand in the Martha Washington Stakes, the competitive level is exceptionally high.
The track has been idle for over a week, which often results in a fresh surface. Handicappers suggest that horses with previous winning experience over the Oaklawn dirt may hold a significant advantage, as the local strip can be demanding. This program also features two overnight stakes and several high level allowance races, making it one of the premier betting days of the winter meet.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather for Hot Springs is sunny with a high temperature of 70°F and a low of 38°F. The wind is blowing from the northwest at 12 mph. Humidity is recorded at 44%.
With several days of sunshine leading up to this card following the winter storms, the track is expected to be rated fast. Historically, Oaklawn can favor horses that can secure a position near the lead, especially in sprint races. However, in route races on a fresh surface, the rail can sometimes be less than optimal if it becomes deep, potentially aiding those in the two or three path.
Track Bias and Post Position Analysis
The six furlong sprints at Oaklawn generally favor horses drawn in the middle to inside posts, provided they have the gate speed to avoid being pinned. In the route races at one mile and one sixteenth, the short run to the first turn makes inside draws like posts one through four highly advantageous. Horses caught wide into the first turn often lose significant ground that is difficult to recover. In recent seasons, leading trainers have shown an ability to win from various tactical positions, while the local jockey colony tends to be aggressive early to secure the rail.
1st Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
11:30AM
Pace Analysis
The pace in this one mile maiden claiming event appears moderate. Candy Cane Crain and Prime Suspect are expected to be the primary pace participants, while Reckless will likely track just behind them from the outside post.
Key Contenders
Candy Cane Crain is the horse to beat based on consistent figures and a trainer who excels with second time starters at this level. The horse showed enough early speed in the debut to suggest he will be prominently placed today. Prime Suspect has the benefit of a top local rider and should improve with the stretch out in distance.
Secondary Choices
Reckless comes from a top barn that is winning at an exceptionally high rate this meet. Despite the wide draw, the horse has the breeding to handle the mile distance and should be closing late. Scuffle has shown flashes of talent and could benefit from a stalking trip if the leaders tire.
Longshots
Brother Energy could provide value if he can recapture some of his earlier form. He has the tactical speed to stay within range and might sneak into the minor awards at a price.
2nd Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
11:59AM
Pace Analysis
Inca Empire and Sivako are the likely leaders in this long distance claiming race. The pace should be honest, providing a fair opportunity for both speed and stalkers.
Key Contenders
Magic Grant has shown an affinity for this distance and enters in good form. He has the tactical versatility to sit just off the lead and strike turning for home. Inca Empire is the speed of the speed and will be dangerous if left alone on the front end.
Secondary Choices
Huge Bigly is a veteran runner for the Asmussen barn and always gives an honest effort at this level. Face Value has the figures to compete and could be a factor if the pace becomes contested.
Longshots
Lea Me Be is a legitimate longshot who has shown improvement in recent starts. If the pace collapses, he could be the one to pick up the pieces.
3rd Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
12:28PM
Pace Analysis
This state bred allowance sprint will be fast. Gettinby and Chrome’s Echo will likely duel early, setting things up for a closer.
Key Contenders
Gettinby is a standout in the speed department and has been running against tougher open company. Returning to state bred ranks makes him a formidable win candidate. Chrome’s Echo is extremely consistent at Oaklawn and rarely runs a bad race.
Secondary Choices
Zippy Mark has the closing kick to capitalize on a fast pace. If the front runners tire, he will be the primary beneficiary. Lochmoor is another steady performer who fits well in this bracket.
Longshots
Touchdown Arkansas could surprise if he can sit a clean trip just behind the leaders. He has shown an ability to win at this distance previously.
4th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
12:59PM
Pace Analysis
The pace in this claiming sprint should be brisk. Eglise and Hap Hot are expected to vie for the lead, which should set up perfectly for a veteran closer like Payne.
Key Contenders
Payne is a classy veteran who loves the Oaklawn surface. He has a powerful closing kick and should find plenty of pace to run into. Hap Hot is consistent and has the speed to be in the hunt from the start.
Secondary Choices
Sir Sterling has been in good form lately and fits well with these. Eglise is a speed threat that must be respected, especially if the track is playing fast.
Longshots
Prayforpeace is a capable runner at a decent price. He has the tactical speed to stay within striking distance and could improve on his recent efforts.
5th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
01:29PM
Pace Analysis
Expect a contested pace with several first time starters and lightly raced sophomores. Baby Vino and Silver Syndicate have shown enough speed in their works and races to suggest they will be forwardly placed.
Key Contenders
Baby Vino looks poised for a big effort after a solid runner up performance last time out. He has the tactical speed to control the race from an inside post. Silver Syndicate is highly regarded and should be a major factor for the Moquett barn.
Secondary Choices
Orange Road showed some interest late in his debut and should improve with that experience. Mactak is another who could step forward with the addition of blinkers and Lasix.
Longshots
Cactus Charlie has been working well and could offer value for a trainer who often has his horses ready to fire fresh.
6th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
01:59PM
Pace Analysis
Search Party is the lone speed on paper and should be able to dictate the terms of the race. Hit Parade and Counting Stars will likely track from second and third.
Key Contenders
Counting Stars has been dominant at Oaklawn this season and handled the route distance with ease last time. She is the horse to beat. Hit Parade comes in with a three race winning streak and has already proven herself in stakes company.
Secondary Choices
Search Party is dangerous if left alone on the lead. Her maiden win was visually impressive and she should handle the class hike. Newtown Pike is another consistent filly who could hit the board.
Longshots
Grace Is Free is a local stakes winner who is trying a route for the first time. If she handles the distance, she could be a factor at a large price.
7th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
02:28PM
Pace Analysis
Silver Prince and Bienville appear to be the main speed in this route maiden. Rocky Raccoon will likely track from a mid pack position.
Key Contenders
Silver Prince has the speed and the pedigree to be a major force in this spot. He should be able to secure a good position early. Bienville is a blue blood for the Asmussen stable and should relish the two turn distance.
Secondary Choices
Rocky Raccoon is a consistent closer who just needs a fair pace to be effective. Mr Fancy Pants is another with talent who could figure in the outcome for Mark Casse.
Longshots
I’m Worthy could surprise if the leaders tire. He has shown enough in his morning works to suggest he belongs with this group.
8th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
02:58PM
Pace Analysis
Sir Greylind and Gun Party should provide a solid pace for this overnight stakes. This should set things up for a mid pack stalker or closer.
Key Contenders
Super Cruise is a rapidly improving colt who has shown he can compete at a high level. He fits this restricted stakes condition perfectly. Energize is another consistent runner with a strong closing kick who should find the distance ideal.
Secondary Choices
Gun Party has the speed to be a factor throughout. Sir Greylind is talented but will need to handle the pressure of being on the lead.
Longshots
Keen Cat is a veteran who knows his way around the Oaklawn winner’s circle and could pop at a price.
9th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
03:28PM
Pace Analysis
Vital Mind and Sharp Swinger are the primary speed threats in this allowance sprint. The pace should be fast and furious from the opening bell.
Key Contenders
Vital Mind is the class of the field and comes from the powerful Asmussen barn. He should be ready to fire a big race today. Sharp Swinger is also very talented and has been training well for this assignment.
Secondary Choices
Zat’s the One is a closing threat who will be moving late. Lundberg has shown speed in the past and could be a factor if he breaks cleanly.
Longshots
Heart N Soul is a blue collar runner who often outruns his odds and could fill out the superfecta.
10th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
04:04PM
Pace Analysis
Blue Fire has dangerous early speed and is expected to go straight to the lead. Hush It Honey and Queen’s Martini will be in hot pursuit.
Key Contenders
Blue Fire looks like the one to catch and has the class to hold off her rivals. Hush It Honey is a horse for the course and always runs her best race at Oaklawn.
Secondary Choices
Queen’s Martini is a consistent stakes performer who should get a good trip from the outside post. Foie Gras is another with talent who must be respected.
Longshots
Titled Lady is an experienced mare who could sneak into the trifecta if the pace is overly contested.
11th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
04:40PM
Pace Analysis
This Grade 3 Southwest Stakes should feature a very fast pace. D’code is the speed of the speed, but he will face pressure from Buetane and Strategic Risk. This should set the race up for a closer.
Key Contenders
Strategic Risk has been impressive in his two turns races and has the tactical speed to stalk a hot pace and take over late. D’code was sensational in his debut and if he can carry that speed two turns, he will be very hard to beat.
Secondary Choices
Buetane is a high priced yearling who has shown plenty of talent and fits well with this group. Silent Tactic should benefit from a fast pace and will be closing ground in the final furlong.
Longshots
Soldier N Diplomat is a talented colt who has some graded stakes experience and could provide value in the exotic wagers.
12th Race – Oaklawn Park – February 6th, 2026
Post Time
05:15PM
Pace Analysis
Money Run and Italian Symphony should be the primary pace factors in this marathon route. The pace should be steady but not overly fast.
Key Contenders
Eastside Cool has the back class to handle this field and is very effective at this distance. Gewurztraminer is in good form and should be a major player for a top barn.
Secondary Choices
J T’s Imagination is a consistent runner who always puts in a good effort. My Noble Knight has the talent to be a factor if he gets a clean trip.
Longshots
Gasoline is a longshot with some back class who could improve in his second start of the meet.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Luis Saez has been exceptionally productive this meet, particularly in stakes races where he has an in the money percentage of 65%. His aggressive riding style often puts his mounts in a winning position early. Cristian Torres and Francisco Arrieta are the top local riders and should be respected on any mount, especially for the high percentage barns. Javier Castellano has a limited number of mounts but is often on the best horses in the marquee events.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Mark Casse has been the story of the meet so far, winning at a high rate. His horses are ready to run and often show significant improvement in their second and third starts of a cycle. Steve Asmussen continues to lead in total wins and has a massive number of entries today across all levels. Brad Cox and Kenneth McPeek are always dangerous in the three year old stakes races and their runners should be given extra consideration in the Martha Washington and Southwest Stakes.
