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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Santa Anita Park hosts a 10-race card headlined by the Pasadena Stakes (Race 7), a $100,000 turf mile for three-year-olds that anchors a program heavy on turf routes and sprints alongside Cal-bred dirt events. The undercard includes maiden special weights on turf (Races 1 and 10), a maiden special weight dirt sprint for Cal-bred older fillies and mares (Race 6), maiden claiming events on both dirt and turf (Races 4 and 5), a $16,000 claiming mile for fillies and mares (Race 2), a starter allowance turf sprint (Race 3), and a Cal-bred allowance optional claiming dirt mile (Race 8). The Cal-bred allowance downhill turf sprint for fillies and mares in Race 9 adds another key feature.
The Pasadena Stakes draws a deep field of 11 sophomores led by Baffle Stakes winner Greenwich Village (PP2) for Bob Baffert and Grade 3 winner Unrivaled Time (PP6) for Leonard Powell, with multiple other stakes-class runners adding depth. There is a notable $40,088 Pick 6 carryover starting in Race 5, expected to drive significant multi-race play across the late sequence.
Scratches of note include Charlie’s Curlin (PP7 Race 1) and Bessie Coleman (PP7 Race 9), slightly altering the early pace shape and field size in those races.
Weather and Track Conditions
The weather is forecast to be mostly sunny with afternoon highs in the mid-70s (approximately 73–77 degrees) and light winds shifting to a modest westerly breeze later in the card. Overnight lows near 50 degrees and clear early-morning conditions point to a completely dry surface. No rain is expected, removing any concern about moisture in either the main track or turf course.
The dirt track is expected to play fast, consistent with typical dry winter conditions at Santa Anita, while the turf course should be firm. The turf rail is set at 20 feet for today’s card, a standard configuration that maintains good footing while slightly tightening the turns. Overall, conditions project to be fair and consistent throughout the program with no weather-driven changes anticipated.
Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies
Recent and historical data suggest no extreme bias on the dirt track under fast conditions. Sprint races on dirt (5 1/2 to 6 1/2 furlongs) tend to favor horses with early speed or pressing styles, while route races at a mile and beyond lean toward speed and tactical stalkers, with pure deep closers at a disadvantage.
On the turf, post 1 has produced a healthy share of winners at one mile, and inside-to-middle draws are generally advantageous. At the current rail setting, turf mile races reward horses with tactical positioning rather than deep closers. The six-furlong turf sprints at this configuration have recently tilted strongly toward off-the-pace runners, with most winners coming from the back half of the field and only one wire-to-wire winner in a meaningful sample.
The downhill turf course used in Race 9 remains a specialty configuration where course experience and rider familiarity are significant edges. Horses capable of handling the right-hand bend, downhill run, and main-track crossover typically outperform inexperienced rivals, especially when combined with a smooth trip and timely move.
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf (3YO)
This race features a blend of improving locals, debuting runners, and a key European import. The projected pace is moderate, with Dinkum (PP2) likely to show the most speed if he draws in, joined by Postmodern (PP4) pressing and Ghostwritten (PP3) tracking in a stalking position.
Ghostwritten (PP3) is a primary contender stretching out and switching to turf off a strong debut third on dirt. The race he exits has already proven productive, and his dam’s proven route and turf class supports today’s move. Yakteen’s barn form and the Kimura rider upgrade add confidence.
Koekkoek (PP8), a European shipper for D’Amato, profiles as a major threat in his U.S. debut. The barn’s excellent record with similar imports at this meet, combined with solid local works, makes him a key player from a favorable outside post.
Dinkum (PP2), if he draws in from the also-eligible list, brings legitimate front-running route form from a good debut at nine furlongs and must be treated as a win threat should he go. Postmodern (PP4) is a logical secondary player stretching out off a promising turf sprint, with Mark Glatt’s barn capable of improvement in this situation.
Firsters Stan Theman Musial (PP5) for McCarthy and Sharons Pharoah (PP6) for Jonathan Thomas fit as longshot types with upside, especially underneath, given their connections and the quality of their barns with young turf prospects.
Race 2 – Claiming $16,000, 1 Mile Dirt (F&M 4YO+ NW2L)
The pace scenario centers on Exington (PP3), who has shown strong early speed on turf and now returns to dirt, and Sei Bella (PP6), a stretching-out sprinter, likely to contest the front. A moderate-to-honest pace is expected.
Exington (PP3) is the leading contender, dropping in class and returning to a surface where speed is more likely to carry. Her prior dirt efforts are better than they appear, and this group is softer than the turf company she has faced.
Infinity Dream (PP4) is a key secondary contender, dropping in class and trying dirt for the first time. Her tactical style should translate well to a mile on dirt, and the presence of Hernandez suggests confidence.
Moonlit Courage (PP1) for Mandella and A Fleet Ride (PP5) both serve as secondary or underneath players, with Moonlit Courage benefiting from the rail at a mile and A Fleet Ride taking a needed class drop and stretch-out.
Race 3 – Starter Allowance, 6 Furlongs Turf (F&M 4YO+)
Pace pressure should originate from How Lovely (PP1) from the rail and possibly Busy Making Munny (PP7), with Miyako (PP3) tracking just behind. However, the prevailing bias at this configuration has favored off-the-pace runners, making the closers more attractive than usual.
Miyako (PP3) is a key contender shortening from route to sprint after setting too strong a pace last time. The return to her preferred sprint trip and the class of her connections make her a logical top-tier player.
Miss Meagher (PP4) fits as another major player, consistently hitting the board at this level going long and now cutting back, while Princess Midnight (PP5) brings sharp current form and a strong recent effort off a layoff that fits this group well.
Late-running Miz Clubcali (PP6) and Lady Monclaire (PP8) are longshot types that benefit from the closers-friendly profile of this configuration and warrant consideration in the underneath slots.
Race 4 – Maiden Claiming $32,000, 6 Furlongs Dirt (3YO Fillies)
The pace setup looks fairly strong, with Lady Detective (PP6) and Tulavia’s World (PP4) likely vying on or near the lead, and Definitely Prbable (PP3) positioned just off them.
Lady Detective (PP6) is the primary contender dropping from maiden special weight to maiden claiming and switching from turf to dirt. Her last race showed improved speed, and the class relief combined with a slight distance cut enhances her chances of taking them as far as she can.
Tulavia’s World (PP4) is a key rival, having shown speed in her debut despite encountering early trouble. With a clean break and experience, she has the profile of a filly who can move forward sharply in her second start.
Definitely Prbable (PP3) is a secondary contender shifting from routes back to a sprint while dropping slightly in class for a strong barn. Susie’s Loaded (PP1) and Maggie O’Hooligan (PP5) are the more interesting longshot types, especially for minor awards, given their connections and potential improvement.
Race 5 – Maiden Claiming $50,000, 6 1/2 Furlongs Turf (4&5YO)
This large-field turf sprint features a balanced pace with Soi Ngern (PP5) and Gordon’s Legacy (PP1) possessing the most early speed, and Woodson (PP2) able to lay close.
Loch n’ Pharoah (PP9) stands out as a key contender, making his second start off a long layoff after a useful comeback where he finished well despite spotting the field early. His pedigree and back-class relative to this group suggest he can take a needed step forward.
Woodson (PP2) projects as another key contender, dropping in class and trying turf for the first time after facing tougher company out of state. The new surface and softer level could unlock improvement.
Sand Bagger (PP8) is an important secondary player as a course-and-distance horse with multiple prior in-the-money efforts at this level. Soi Ngern (PP5) offers pace and third-off-layoff improvement potential, while English Icon (PP4) and Johnson’s Magic (PP3) are the more appealing longshots in a chaotic maiden turf claimer.
Race 6 – Maiden Special Weight, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt (Cal-bred F&M 4&5YO)
This sprint has a clear pace focal point in Tiger of the Sea (PP6), who figures to go straight to the front. All in the Game (PP3) and Dad’s Bad Bunny (PP1) should sit just behind, with Joyful Mischief (PP2) and others closing late.
Tiger of the Sea (PP6) is the key horse, combining top-end speed, a favorable cutback in distance, and a trainer with an exceptional record with maiden favorites. Her last race on turf suggests sharp current form, and the main track switch should not pose an issue.
All in the Game (PP3) is a strong secondary contender and clear “other horse,” having arguably run the best race last time in defeat while closing strongly. Dad’s Bad Bunny (PP1) is an improving second-off-layoff type with a good inside draw.
Joyful Mischief (PP2) is more of a grinding late runner who may again run on for a minor award, while firsters like Judy Lynn Starr (PP5) hold some upside as longer-priced possibilities.
Race 7 – Pasadena Stakes, 1 Mile Turf (3YO)
Pace should be honest but not extreme, with Smoovin Saturday (PP1) and Brigante (PP7) candidates to show early speed. Greenwich Village (PP2) and Later Than Planned (PP5) will likely adopt stalking or mid-pack positions, while Unrivaled Time (PP6), Iriseach (PP9), and Medici (PP10) close from off the pace.
Greenwich Village (PP2) is the central contender, coming off a visually impressive Baffle Stakes win where he demonstrated a new ability to relax and finish strongly from last. His pattern mirrors prior Pasadena winners exiting the same sprint, and his pedigree and connections support today’s move to a mile.
Unrivaled Time (PP6) is a major threat, exiting a compromised effort in a similar turf mile stakes where slow fractions and a wide trip blunted his late kick. With more pace and a larger field today, his proven stakes class at a mile gives him a strong chance to rebound.
Later Than Planned (PP5) is a key secondary player, having run close to Greenwich Village last out and offering a strong turf-route profile for a top turf barn. Sammy Davis (PP4), making his turf debut, brings quality dirt stakes form and suitable turf pedigree, making him another serious secondary contender.
Iriseach (PP9) and Medici (PP10) fit as live longshots in a deep field, both representing strong turf connections and likely to be running late at attractive odds, while Army Man (PP8) and Smoovin Saturday (PP1) contribute to pace and depth.
Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming $20,000, 1 Mile Dirt (Cal-bred 4YO+)
The projected pace is moderate, with Refocus (PP5) and Stolen Treasure (PP4) likely to be prominent early, and Oubabe (PP3) stalking just off them. The race should favor horses with tactical positional speed.
Refocus (PP5) is a main contender, coming off an improved dirt sprint and possibly rediscovering his better surface after a long turf campaign. The stretch-out at this stage of his form cycle is a positive.
Stolen Treasure (PP4) is another key horse, showing stakes-level back-class and a better-than-appears last-out effort compromised by a wide trip. With a better draw and more efficient trip, he is squarely in the mix.
Oubabe (PP3) is a secondary contender whose best figures on both turf and dirt fit this level but who must overcome some inconsistency. Majestic Palisades (PP6) and Whiskyginandbrandy (PP7) are more minor but viable players, especially in the underneath rungs.
Race 9 – Allowance, 6 1/2 Furlongs Downhill Turf (Cal-bred F&M 4YO+)
With Bessie Coleman (PP7) scratched, the downhill pace picture likely centers on Legal Fiction (PP2), Garden Party (PP4), and Goodnight Nellie (PP10) showing tactical speed. Horses able to relax early and finish strongly will have the edge over those who get too aggressive down the hill.
Garden Party (PP4) is a key contender, exiting a solid starter allowance win and owning sprint turf figures that are fast enough to win here from off the pace. She brings strong connections and compatible running style for this layout.
Christel Clean (PP6) is another major player, coming off a good runner-up finish at a slightly shorter turf sprint distance. The question is whether she can maintain that effectiveness at the longer downhill trip, but her last race makes her dangerous.
Goodnight Nellie (PP10) and Long Mayshe Reign (PP8) operate as important secondary horses, each with competitive figures and capable connections. Lamporghini (PP5) becomes a key longshot if she draws in, as her second-off-layoff profile and prior sprint form give her upside to improve. Nell’s Legacy (PP3) and others round out a very deep and chaotic field.
Race 10 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Turf (Cal-bred 3YO Fillies)
The finale is a wide-open Cal-bred turf mile with several lightly raced fillies stretching out for the first time. Cash in Toknight (PP2) projects as a likely pace factor, with Gogotiz (PP6) and possibly others contributing, leading to a moderate or even soft early tempo.
Risky Pleasure (PP3) is a primary contender, stretching out off a promising closing sprint effort and owning a turf-route pedigree through a full sister who was a Cal-bred turf-route stakes winner. Today marks her first opportunity to string starts together without a layoff, making improvement likely.
Cash in Toknight (PP2) is a significant secondary contender with speed stretching out for the first time. In a race lacking established routers, her ability to control the pace gives her a real chance to steal it if she relaxes on the front end.
Vicky Lyn (PP5) is another secondary player, likely to move forward second start off a layoff and stretching to a route. Goje (PP4) and Tate Batz (PP11) are notable longshot types with strong rider and trainer angles, and Baby Needs Shoes (PP7) offers additional upside in a race where many will be trying new conditions for the first time.
