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The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Today is Saturday, February 28, 2026, and the card features ten races highlighted by the 125,000 dollar Wintergreen Stakes for fillies and mares. The program begins at 5:55 PM and offers a mix of maiden claiming events, competitive allowance contests, and the stakes feature in Race 8. With full fields in many races, including several entries on the also-eligible lists, handicappers have plenty of value opportunities to explore. The main track is the Tapeta synthetic surface, which remains consistent regardless of precipitation, providing a fair test for all runners. The Wintergreen Stakes at one mile will test the stamina and class of the older females, while the maiden special weight in Race 6 offers a glimpse at potential future stars.

Weather and Track Conditions

The forecast for Florence, Kentucky on this late February evening calls for chilly temperatures typical of the season. Expect overcast skies with temperatures hovering in the upper 30s to low 40s. The wind may be a factor coming down the stretch, so pay attention to the tote board for any late shifts. The Tapeta surface at Turfway Park is designed to handle moisture and cold effectively. We expect the track condition to be listed as Fast. The synthetic surface generally plays fair, though it often rewards horses that can sit just off the pace and make a sustained run. Speed can hold on the sprint distances if unchallenged, but the one-mile route races tend to favor tactical speed and closers who save ground before tipping out in the stretch.

Race 1

Post Time

5:55 PM ET

Key Contenders

Redeposit comes into this maiden claiming event with strong connections in trainer Gregory Foley and jockey Danny Sheehy. In a field that lacks significant depth, having a barn that wins at a respectable clip is a major advantage. This five-year-old mare fits well at this bottom claiming level and should be able to Work out a stalking trip. Cold Front is another runner to watch, despite recent veterinary scratches elsewhere. If this horse is right, the class drop and the presence of Oscar Villarreal could wake him up. However, the recent gaps in training are a concern that must be factored into the price.

Secondary Choices

Atomic Snow draws the rail and gets Jann Hernandez in the saddle. Rail draws at five furlongs on this track can be tricky if the horse does not break sharply, but if he gets away clean, he could save ground and contest for a share. Can Of Corn for trainer Marcelino Torres adds Constantino Roman. This Duo has had moments of success, and in a field of this caliber, any improvement puts him In The Mix for the exotics.

Pace Analysis

The pace in this five-furlong dash should be moderate to fast. Can Of Corn and Atomic Snow likely have to send from the inside to avoid getting shuffled back. This might set up the race for a horse sitting just behind the first flight, like Redeposit, to pounce in the final furlong.

Betting Strategy

Focus on the class and consistency of the Foley runner. A win bet on Redeposit is the primary Play. For exotics, box the top three selections to cover for the Volatility of low-level maiden claimers.

Selections

Win: Redeposit (9) – 35% confidence Place: Atomic Snow (1) – 20% confidence Show: Can Of Corn (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: Cold Front (5) – 10% confidence

Race 2

Post Time

6:25 PM ET

Key Contenders

Gio Linh looks like the Standout in this field. Trained by Brad Cox, who dominates at Turfway Park, and ridden by Fernando De La Cruz, this filly finds a very soft spot in a maiden claiming 15,000 dollar event. The drop in class or placement here suggests the connections are looking for a confidence-building win. She should have the tactical speed to control her destiny. Victura, trained by John Ennis, is the main danger. Ennis has a high strike rate with young horses at this oval, and Danny Sheehy is a capable pilot. If the favorite falters, this is the most likely alternative.

Secondary Choices

Bowling Blue represents the Eddie Kenneally barn. Walter Rodriguez takes the mount, and while the form might not be as flashy as the Cox entrant, Kenneally places his horses well. Red Hot Luck draws the inside and could use that position to save ground around the turns in this one-mile contest.

Pace Analysis

In a one-mile race for maidens, the pace is often Unpredictable. Expect Gio Linh to be near the lead early to avoid traffic trouble. There does not appear to be a dedicated speedball in the group, which could allow the favorite to set slow fractions and sprint home.

Betting Strategy

Gio Linh will likely be a short price. The best value here is singling her in horizontal wagers like the Daily Double or Pick 3. For vertical wagers, use her on top of Victura and Bowling Blue in exactas.

Selections

Win: Gio Linh (5) – 45% confidence Place: Victura (10) – 25% confidence Show: Bowling Blue (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: Red Hot Luck (1) – 10% confidence

Race 3

Post Time

6:55 PM ET

Key Contenders

Mr Randy ships in with solid form and gets the services of Fernando De La Cruz for trainer Tim Girten. This three-year-old taking on older horses is a bold move, but the weight allowance gives him an edge. His recent running lines suggest he fits comfortably at this claiming level. Guardian for trainer Eric Foster has been knocking on the door. Julio Felix stays aboard, and the horse has shown the ability to close into the pace. The cutback or maintenance of sprint distance here suits his running style.

Secondary Choices

Sweet Freedom from the Robert Medina barn is a consistent runner who usually gives an Honest effort. Alex Achard is a patient rider who knows how to time a run on the synthetic. Baytown Bruiser has speed and could be dangerous if left alone on the Front End, though he must avoid a duel to last the 6 1/2 furlongs.

Pace Analysis

Baytown Bruiser and Papiamento will likely vie for the early lead. If they hook up early, it will set the table for Mr Randy and Guardian to make their moves on the turn. A contested pace benefits the stalkers.

Betting Strategy

This is a competitive betting race. A win bet on Mr Randy offers good potential. Consider an exacta box with Guardian and Sweet Freedom.

Selections

Win: Mr Randy (8) – 30% confidence Place: Guardian (7) – 25% confidence Show: Sweet Freedom (9) – 20% confidence Alternative: Baytown Bruiser (6) – 10% confidence

Race 4

Post Time

7:25 PM ET

Key Contenders

Count Of Amazonia is a veteran nine-year-old who has seen better days but finds himself in a very winnable spot at the 8,000 dollar claiming level. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides for Adam Gerteisen. Back class often prevails in these bottom-level stamina tests. Bramble Blaze, if he draws in and is healthy, fits well on Speed Figures. Walter Rodriguez riding for Richard Estvanko is a positive sign, but the scratch watch notes illness, so check the tote board and paddock appearance closely.

Secondary Choices

Coppermaster draws the rail for Genaro Garcia. He should be able to save ground and grind out a check. Some R Blessed is another veteran who could pick up the pieces if the race falls apart late.

Pace Analysis

The pace will likely be pedestrian in this route for lower-level claimers. This lack of pace often keeps the field bunched together, making traffic a major factor. The horse that gets the first jump on the far turn usually wins.

Betting Strategy

Tread lightly in low-level claiming routes. Small win bets on the veteran Count Of Amazonia or an exacta box including Coppermaster is the prudent Play.

Selections

Win: Count Of Amazonia (8) – 25% confidence Place: Bramble Blaze (7) – 20% confidence Show: Coppermaster (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Some R Blessed (9) – 15% confidence

Race 5

Post Time

7:55 PM ET

Key Contenders

Lawless Ways draws attention with the combination of trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Fernando De La Cruz. DeVaux has excellent stats with runners in this maiden claiming bracket, and the horse looks spotted to win. Market Watch is a Michael Maker trainee starting from the far outside. Maker is a master at getting horses ready, and while the post is tough at 6 1/2 furlongs, Walter Rodriguez is aggressive enough to get position.

Secondary Choices

Cardinal Union for Thomas Van Berg has the pedigree to compete here. Edgar Morales is a strong finisher. In The Dark adds blinkers, which could sharpen his early speed and put him In The Mix early.

Pace Analysis

There is plenty of speed signed on here. In The Dark and Cardinal Union will likely push the tempo. Lawless Ways should sit the perfect trip just off the leaders, waiting for the stretch to engage.

Betting Strategy

Lawless Ways is a strong win candidate. Key him in the Pick 3 and Pick 4. An exacta with Market Watch provides a solid payout potential if the outside horse can clear the field.

Selections

Win: Lawless Ways (5) – 35% confidence Place: Market Watch (13) – 25% confidence Show: Cardinal Union (2) – 15% confidence Alternative: In The Dark (11) – 10% confidence

Race 6

Post Time

8:25 PM ET

Key Contenders

Supercharger is the horse to beat in this maiden special weight. Another Cherie DeVaux entry, this three-year-old has been training well and gets Rafael Manuel Hernandez. The purse is significant, so connections are serious. Helpful Howie, trained by Matt Shirer with Julien Leparoux aboard, is the logical threat. Leparoux is legendary for his turf and synthetic rides, and this horse has shown promise in morning workouts.

Secondary Choices

Silver Sniper draws the rail for Eric Foster. If he can break alertly, he has a chance to steal it or sit a pocket trip. Brave Force for Jack Sisterson and Vincent Cheminaud is an intriguing longshot. Sisterson’s horses often improve with experience and distance.

Pace Analysis

Expect a fair pace. Silver Sniper and Supercharger will likely be forwardly placed. In a one-mile maiden race, the horse that relaxes best usually has the most left for the finish.

Betting Strategy

This is a high-quality race. A win bet on Supercharger is warranted. Box the top three in a trifecta as the payouts for maiden special weights can be generous.

Selections

Win: Supercharger (6) – 30% confidence Place: Helpful Howie (2) – 25% confidence Show: Silver Sniper (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Brave Force (10) – 10% confidence

Race 7

Post Time

8:55 PM ET

Key Contenders

Social Belle looks primed for a top effort for trainer Paulo Lobo. Walter Rodriguez is in the irons. Lobo has a high percentage with allowance runners at Turfway, and this filly has the class to handle the field. Lost And Found is a dangerous rival from the William Walden barn. Luan Machado rides, and his patience on this track is a perfect match for this filly’s closing style.

Secondary Choices

Steampunk for Kelsey Danner and Gabriel Saez cannot be ignored. She fits the conditions well and has run competitive races against similar company. Salty Senorita represents Mike Maker and is a must-use in exotics due to the trainer’s consistency in these spots.

Pace Analysis

The pace should be hot with several fillies wanting the lead. This setup favors Social Belle and Lost And Found, who can sit mid-pack and make one run.

Betting Strategy

Focus on the closers. An exacta box of Social Belle and Lost And Found is the recommended strategy.

Selections

Win: Social Belle (10) – 28% confidence Place: Lost And Found (4) – 25% confidence Show: Steampunk (6) – 15% confidence Alternative: Salty Senorita (3) – 12% confidence

Race 8 – Wintergreen Stakes

Post Time

9:25 PM ET

Key Contenders

Literate is the class of the field in the feature race. Brad Cox trains, and Luan Machado rides. This mare has faced tougher company and should relish the synthetic surface. Her running style is versatile, allowing her to adapt to the pace scenario. Storm Miami ships in for Amelia Green with Victor Carrasco. The international flair often translates well to the Tapeta, and she could be the main speed of the race or a heavy presser.

Secondary Choices

Stylish Sue is a consistent mare for Joe Sharp. Rafael Manuel Hernandez rides. She rarely runs a bad race and will be running on late. Wrigleyville for Tom Proctor is a dark horse who could surprise if the pace collapses.

Pace Analysis

Storm Miami will likely try to control the pace. Literate will track her closely. The race will likely be decided at the top of the stretch when Literate makes her move to challenge the leader.

Betting Strategy

Literate is the most likely winner of the card. Use her as a single in the late Pick 4 and Pick 5. For the race itself, a straight trifecta with Literate over Storm Miami and Stylish Sue is a high-value Play.

Selections

Win: Literate (4) – 50% confidence Place: Storm Miami (7) – 25% confidence Show: Stylish Sue (5) – 15% confidence Alternative: Wrigleyville (2) – 5% confidence

Race 9

Post Time

9:55 PM ET

Key Contenders

Catalyzed, a French-bred mare, drops into a claiming spot where she should be very competitive. Kelsey Danner trains, and Victor Carrasco rides. Her back class suggests she is better than this NW2L field. Bend My Ear is a three-year-old facing older mares, but the weight break and Luan Machado riding for Robert Cline make her interesting.

Secondary Choices

Atlantic Passage has speed and the rail. Martin Garcia is an aggressive gate rider. If she clears, she could be hard to catch. Army Girl is a veteran who knows her way around the track and picks up Samuel Bermudez.

Pace Analysis

Atlantic Passage sends from the rail. Catalyzed will likely stalk from the outside. The race sets up for a stalk-and-pounce trip.

Betting Strategy

Look for value here. Catalyzed might drift up in odds. A win bet on her is a solid Play. Include Bend My Ear in exactas.

Selections

Win: Catalyzed (11) – 30% confidence Place: Bend My Ear (4) – 25% confidence Show: Atlantic Passage (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Army Girl (5) – 10% confidence

Race 10

Post Time

10:25 PM ET

Key Contenders

Sailor Sam is a Wesley Ward trainee in a five-furlong sprint. This is one of the most potent angles in horse racing. Ward specializes in speed and sprints, and Gerardo Corrales is his go-to rider. Expect this horse to break like a rocket and try to wire the field. Count The Green for Larry Rivelli is the primary challenger. Rivelli also wins at a high rate with sprinters, and Walter Rodriguez is riding well.

Secondary Choices

Sierra Power draws the rail and has Gabriel Lagunes. He needs a clean break to contend. Brea From Three for John Ennis is a logical exotic filler given the barn’s success with young horses.

Pace Analysis

Sailor Sam will go to the front. The race depends entirely on whether anyone can stay with him. If he clears easily, the race is likely over at the quarter pole.

Betting Strategy

Sailor Sam is a probable lock to close out the card. Single him in the last leg of the Pick 5. The exacta with Sailor Sam over Count The Green is the cold forecast.

Selections

Win: Sailor Sam (2) – 55% confidence Place: Count The Green (3) – 25% confidence Show: Sierra Power (1) – 10% confidence Alternative: Brea From Three (4) – 5% confidence

Jockey Notes and Insights

Luan Machado continues to be a dominant force at Turfway Park. His ability to judge the pace on the synthetic surface is second to none. He is particularly dangerous on closers and horses that need a patient hand. Look for him to excel in the route races today, especially aboard Literate in the stakes. Gerardo Corrales remains the king of speed. When he is on a Wesley Ward horse in a sprint, it is almost an automatic Play. His aggressive style suits the five-furlong dashes perfectly. Fernando De La Cruz is riding in top form and has strong mounts for Brad Cox and Cherie DeVaux. He is a versatile rider who can win from on the lead or off the pace.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Brad Cox enters fillies in spot-on conditions. When he drops a horse into a maiden claiming race like in Race 2 or enters a stake like Race 8, the intention is to win immediately. Wesley Ward is the premier trainer for turf and synthetic sprints. His runners are usually honed for gate speed. Bet his sprinters with confidence. Cherie DeVaux has a strong win percentage at this meet and places her horses where they can be competitive. Her entries in Races 5 and 6 look particularly live. John Ennis often flies under the radar but has excellent stats with two and three-year-olds at Turfway. Do not overlook his entries in the maiden races.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The Best Bet of the day is Sailor Sam in Race 10. The Ward/Corrales combination in a five-furlong maiden claimer is a high-percentage angle that is hard to bet against. For value, look at Lawless Ways in Race 5. While likely a favorite, the horse looks much best and can be used as a key in mid-card horizontal wagers. The Wintergreen Stakes features a Standout in Literate. Building a Pick 4 ticket around Literate in Race 8 and Sailor Sam in Race 10 allows you to spread in the more difficult legs like Race 7 and Race 9.

Recommended Pick 5 Ticket (Races 6-10): Race 6: 2, 6 Race 7: 4, 10 Race 8: 4 Race 9: 1, 4, 11 Race 10: 2

This structure leverages strong opinions in the stakes and the nightcap to cover the chaotic claiming races in the middle of the sequence. Good luck and safe trips to all.