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Monday’s Zia Park card is a typical late-meet program built around statebred allowance and claiming races with a couple of open maiden events up front. The focus is strongly on New Mexico-breds, especially from Race 2 onward, with several familiar local barns and riders dominating the entries.

The meet is in the homestretch of its November–December run, coming off Land of Enchantment and New Mexico Classics stakes days late last month, when the track produced fast times and formful results in major Thoroughbred stakes such as the Zia Park Derby and Zia Park Championship. That recent pattern suggests a reasonably predictable surface where current form and tactical speed have held well.​

Regulatory and health-wise, Zia has been operating under tightened entry requirements due to equine infectious anemia and other health concerns in the region, including stricter health certificate and negative Coggins timelines for incoming horses. These policies have been in place throughout the meet and should help maintain a stable population with relatively fit, race-ready stock.​

Today’s card features:

Race 1 – Open maiden special at 6.5 furlongs
Race 2 – New Mexico-bred maiden claiming sprint
Race 3 – Starter optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles
Race 4 – Open allowance for fillies and mares at 6 furlongs
Race 5 – Two-year-old maiden claiming sprint (Lasix-free)
Race 6 – NM-bred N1X route at 1 mile 70 yards
Race 7 – NM-bred N3L claiming sprint for fillies and mares
Race 8 – NM-bred N4L / non-winners since June claiming sprint
Race 9 – NM-bred N2L claiming sprint for fillies and mares
Race 10 – NM-bred N2L allowance sprint

Overall this is a solid betting card with multiple logical short-priced favorites but also several spots where second-tier contenders and longshots offer value against vulnerable chalk.

Weather and Track Conditions

Forecasts for Hobbs, New Mexico, call for cool but seasonable early-December weather, with daytime highs around the mid- to upper 50s Fahrenheit and lows in the mid 20s. Skies are expected to be mainly clear to partly cloudy with low precipitation chances, typical of the region’s dry winter pattern.​

Given the arid climate, lack of significant rain in the short-term forecasts, and the track’s recent run of fast dirt surfaces on major race days, the main track is expected to start and remain fast barring any unexpected showers. Cool temperatures can make the surface slightly tighter and quicker, favoring horses with tactical speed and those already proven over the local dirt.​

Track Bias and Post Position Bias

Equibase meet stats through November 30 provide a clear picture of post-position performance at Zia Park this season.​

For sprints on dirt (all distances under one mile):

Post 1: 14 wins from 190 starts (7.4%)
Posts 2–6: 24, 27, 24, 29, 25 wins respectively from roughly 180–190 starts each (about 12.6–15.5% win rates)
Posts 7–10: 13, 18, 12, 6 wins, with win rates in the 8–13.8% range

For routes (distance races on dirt), the sample is smaller, but posts 1–5 have between 10 and 2 wins each, with win rates ranging from 10–30% in that thin sample.​

Practical takeaways:

Inside rail (post 1) has underperformed relative to its opportunity in sprints.
Middle posts 3–6 have been best overall in sprint win percentage.
Outside posts 8–10 have been competitive but not advantaged, with fewer starts and modest win percentages.
In routes, with limited data, posts 1–5 appear fine; there is no clear disadvantage for inside or mid posts.

Coupled with Zia’s one‑mile dirt oval and longish homestretch, the profile leans toward a modest tactical-speed and mid-post advantage in sprints, while routes appear relatively fair on post draw, with pace and trip more decisive than gate slot alone.​

1st Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

Maiden Special Weight – 6.5 furlongs, dirt – open 3–5-year-olds

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:05 PM MT.​

Pace Analysis

Boltless showed genuine early speed on debut in a five-furlong maiden at Zia, dueling along the rail and battling to the wire before just missing. Stretching out to 6.5 furlongs, he projects as the controlling or co-controlling speed again.​

Divine Wind has been competitive in stronger maidens and appears more of a pace-pressing or stalking type, likely sitting just off Boltless. El Chino Vaca should have enough tactical foot from the rail to be in the first flight, while Hugh Glass and Fancy Very Fancy look more midpack or late-running on paper. Gangster has not shown the same level of early foot.​

Given the small field and lack of multiple dedicated front-runners, this shapes as a race where Boltless can control the tempo, with Divine Wind as the primary pace pressure. That setup is favorable to both main favorites and makes it tougher for deep closers to get involved.

Key Contenders

Boltless (post 6, Evans/Valenzuela)
Narrowly missed in a local maiden sprint earlier in the meet and earned the highest ratings in the field. The debut showed professionalism: sharp break, inside duel, and resilience despite losing a tight finish. Today he moves to an extra furlong and a half, but the longer distance should be manageable given his pedigree and the way he carried speed first out. Drawn outside the main pace rival and heavily backed on all early opinion lines, he is the clear horse to beat.​

Divine Wind (post 3, Evans/Hernandez)
Has kept better company in maiden special weight fields and has already shown that she belongs at this level. The Formscan view notes she has “shown promise in stronger company” and is expected to step forward again. Stablemate to Boltless, she projects a ground-saving trip behind the speed and may get first run if Boltless weakens late. Logical second choice and strong exacta mate.​

Secondary Choices

El Chino Vaca (post 1, Armstrong/Gomez)
Returns at this circuit with a respectable rating but below the top pair. From the rail, he must leave cleanly and maintain position behind the favorite. Connections are solid locally, and improvement in the second or third start of the meet is plausible, but he still needs a step up to threaten Boltless on figures.​

Hugh Glass (post 4, Hone/Amparan)
First-time Lasix and debuting for a capable barn that can have one ready. This is a tough spot for a first-out gelding facing proven runners; still, any board presence could signal he is one to follow down the line. More of a minor award candidate today unless the favorites regress.​

Longshots

Gangster (post 2, Hudson/Da Silva) and Fancy Very Fancy (post 5, Morales/Rodriguez) both exit a prior race where they were long odds behind the top horses and did not threaten. Fancy Very Fancy removes blinkers, which might help him settle and finish, but both appear several lengths below the top two on current evidence.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Boltless is a strong single in multi-race wagers and an obvious key in verticals. With two clear standouts, the main decision is how aggressively to lean on the Evans pair versus hunting minor price upsets.

Win bets on Boltless will be short and only attractive if the board somehow drifts above even money. The more appealing angle is playing cold or part-wheel exactas with Divine Wind and using El Chino Vaca underneath in trifectas.

Selections

Win: Boltless
Place: Divine Wind
Show: El Chino Vaca

2nd Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

New Mexico-bred Maiden Claiming – 5.5 furlongs, dirt – fillies and mares

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:32 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

With a full field of ten statebred maiden fillies and mares, there should be an honest pace. Your Money has been forward or pace-pressing in prior starts, including a win at 6.5 furlongs in a similar maiden claiming event at this meet. Flaquita and Sir Liams Love have enough early speed to be part of the first wave, while E C Rain adds blinkers and may show more intent.​

Love N Be Loved is a debut runner and could add an unknown pace element, but lacking published data, she is treated as a midpack or tracking type. The projected scenario is several vying for position early, favoring the classier, more seasoned Your Money and any stalker who can sit just off the battle.

Key Contenders

Your Money (post 1, Cappellucci/Juarez)
Already a winner at this meet in NM-bred maiden claiming company over 6.5 furlongs, beating a decent group and earning solid figures for this level. The Formscan notes she “has placed in higher class races and looks the one to beat if building on recent form.” Drawn inside with a rider-trainer combo that has been effective locally, she should be prominent from the start and is the logical favorite and top choice.​

Flaquita (post 2, Eliott/Medellin)
Formscan highlights her “stepping down in class” with potential to challenge Your Money. She has been running against somewhat tougher opposition and now lands in a spot where her back ratings make her competitive. The draw is ideal for a forward trip, and if Your Money falters late or gets pinned on the rail, Flaquita could be the one to capitalize.​

Love N Be Loved (post 4, Marr/Fuentes Jr.)
Intriguing debut runner from a capable barn with decent breeding for regional sprinting. The Formscan analysis flags her as an interesting first-time starter, and this trainer has been productive with prepared debut fillies. A strong tote signal would add confidence. She is a high-upside type in a field where many have already had multiple chances.​

Secondary Choices

Sir Liams Love (post 5, Vaughn/Vazquez)
Has a fair underlying rating and enough pace to be in touch early. She has not yet put it all together but fits underneath in exotics, especially if she can sit behind the main speed rather than being forced into a duel.​

Whiskey On Ice (post 10, Morales/Perez)
Draws the outside and has some ability hinted at in prior efforts, but her wide gate and inconsistent finishes make her more of an underneath consideration. She can factor in late if the inside duel collapses.​

Longshots

Rampage Rose (post 6), E C Rain (post 7), Fly Becky (post 8), and Wild N Shameful (post 9) all have lower ratings and less consistent finishing efforts in similar races. E C Rain adds first-time blinkers, which could spark improvement, while Wild N Shameful switches back to a rider who has had success locally, but each still needs significant progress to win. They are best used as deep trifecta or superfecta fillers if spreading.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a race to lean on Your Money in doubles and early Pick 4s, but the presence of a live first-time starter and a class-dropping rival invites some coverage.

Win emphasis can go on Your Money if the price is acceptable. If she is hammered below even money, an alternative is a win saver on Flaquita or watching the board carefully on Love N Be Loved. Exactas keying Your Money over Flaquita and Love N Be Loved, and backing up with Flaquita over Your Money, capture the most likely outcomes.

Selections

Win: Your Money
Place: Flaquita
Show: Love N Be Loved

3rd Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

Starter Optional Claiming – 1 1/16 miles, dirt

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 12:59 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

Winning Big, Vinniebob, and Kirby Derby all have the capacity to be involved early, with Cat Gamer typically a stalker who can sit just behind the speed. Barossa has been effective as a tracking type at one mile and should again secure a stalking position in the second flight.​

Dennard, coming off a strong course-and-distance win, has enough tactical speed to avoid being outpaced early but is more of a grinder. Magoo generally rallies from midpack. The likely shape is an honest but not suicidal early tempo, with multiple horses content to sit just off whichever rival commits to the front.

That setup should be favorable for versatile stalkers like Barossa and consistent grinders like Dennard and Cat Gamer, and less so for deep closers who need a collapse.

Key Contenders

Barossa (post 3, Armstrong/Ramos)
Formscan makes him “the one to beat after a narrow second last time out in a higher grade.” He owns strong recent ratings and has already proven effective over this distance at Zia, including a decisive one-mile win late last season and a solid second over 6.5-furlong extended sprints at this meet. Dropping slightly in class while retaining a top local rider, he is well drawn for a ground-saving stalking trip and is the most reliable option.​

Dennard (post 2, Hernandez/Medellin)
Arrives off an impressive course-and-distance win and is identified as “next best” by the Formscan. As an older horse with local route experience, his recent upturn in form is a major positive. From post 2 he should secure a rail-adjacent trip behind the lead, and if Barossa finds traffic or regresses, Dennard is the main threat to repeat.​

Cat Gamer (post 7, Rust/Da Silva)
Described as consistent and a good candidate to “make the frame,” Cat Gamer has been right there repeatedly at similar levels. His running style, sitting in the second flight and grinding late, fits the likely pace scenario. While his win strike-rate is modest, he is a strong player for the exotics and could win if the top two underperform.​

Secondary Choices

Winning Big (post 1, Valerio/Arboleda)
From the rail, he may have no choice but to use some early speed. If he can control a moderate tempo, he could be the surprise wire candidate. However, with several pace-pressers just outside him, he is more likely to be forced into an honest pace that sets up the stalkers late.

Magoo (post 6, Ortiz/Valenzuela)
Has shown ability around two turns and comes from a barn capable of moving horses up over a route. He will need pace help and a clean outside trip but can run on late into the lower rungs of trifectas and superfectas.​

Longshots

Vinniebob (post 4) and Kirby Derby (post 5) both have pieces of back class but appear a notch below the top tier on current form and ratings. Vinniebob, in particular, has had chances at this level and might need a perfect trip or a significant pace meltdown to win. They can be used underneath in larger vertical spreads.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a strong exacta and trifecta race with three logical anchors. Barossa is a legitimate single in serial bets and a key win candidate. Use Dennard and Cat Gamer heavily underneath in exactas and trifectas, with smaller saver tickets flipping Dennard over Barossa.

If the wagering public underestimates Dennard and he goes off at a noticeably higher price than Barossa despite comparable form, a partial win hedge on Dennard is justified.

Selections

Win: Barossa
Place: Dennard
Show: Cat Gamer

4th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

Allowance – 6 furlongs, dirt – fillies and mares N1X/N2L

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:26 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

Several of these fillies and mares have shown early speed in recent sprints. Maga Kai and R R Bougie both have enough pace to be on or very near the lead from inside posts, while Native Charmer is a lightly raced filly stepping out of a sharp maiden win and can be close early.​

Tiz the Spirit and Lone Mountain Girl are more versatile, comfortable stalking just behind the pace, and Lucky Vegas tends to sit midpack before trying to grind into contention late. With at least three forward types, this should be an honest, if not pressured, pace scenario.

A strong, professional stalker with a finishing kick should be well suited, while a need-the-lead type who faces pace pressure from both sides could be vulnerable late.

Key Contenders

R R Bougie (post 3, Fincher/Fuentes)
Formscan sees her as “well-placed to go one better after a strong runner-up effort last time out.” She has solid local figures, has already run well at this distance, and comes from a barn winning at a high percentage this meet. Her tactical style allows her to sit just behind, rather than in, a pace duel, and her draw in post 3 is ideal to save ground into the turn. Clear top contender.​

Native Charmer (post 4, Fincher/Valenzuela)
Steps into allowance company after a convincing maiden win and “could build on her maiden win” per Formscan. As a lightly raced 3-year-old from the same powerful barn, she has upside and could improve enough to challenge or even outrun R R Bougie. Her best chance comes if she can secure a stalking position rather than being forced into a duel.​

Tiz the Spirit (post 6, Fincher/Arboleda)
Another from the same operation, she “may bounce back from a below-par run.” She has prior races that fit at this level, and if the last outing was an anomaly, a rebound is possible. Among the Fincher trio, she may offer the best price with only slightly lower ceiling.​

Secondary Choices

Maga Kai (post 1, Armstrong/Gomez)
Has some early speed and the rail, which could force the strategy: send and try to take them wire-to-wire. With three Fincher runners in the field, she may be hooked early, but if the pace is more controlled than expected, she is the most likely non-Fincher to take them all the way.

Lone Mountain Girl (post 2, Armstrong/Ramos)
Older mare with some back class and a steady style. She should sit a pocket trip behind Maga Kai and R R Bougie. While perhaps a half-step below the Fincher trio on recent numbers, she is a reliable exotics piece.​

Longshots

Lucky Vegas (post 5, Valdez-Cabral/Da Silva) and Jilly’s West (post 7, Lambert/Juarez) do not have the same recent figures or finishing punch as the leading contenders. Lucky Vegas would need a late pace collapse and a career-best effort to threaten for the win. Both can sneak into the lower rungs of deep trifectas if the race melts down.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This race is controlled by the Fincher barn. Structuring bets around their runners is the key.

Multi-race players can lean on R R Bougie and Native Charmer as co-keys. Vertical players can key R R Bougie on top while including Native Charmer, Tiz the Spirit, Maga Kai, and Lone Mountain Girl underneath.

An interesting angle is to use Maga Kai in a few saver exactas over the Fincher runners in case she shakes loose from the rail and wires the field at a bigger price.

Selections

Win: R R Bougie
Place: Native Charmer
Show: Tiz the Spirit

5th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

Maiden Claiming – 6 furlongs, dirt – two-year-olds, Lasix-free

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 1:53 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

This juvenile maiden claimer should feature a lively early tempo. Blameitonblantons, Twisted Steel, and American Secrets all come from barns that tend to have young horses forwardly placed. Dashing American adds first-time blinkers, a classic move to sharpen speed.​

Senorita Buscador, Michiga, Charlizeangelbaby, and One Horse Town all have enough pedigree and connections to show some early zip, but their exact running styles are less clearly defined.

Given multiple potential senders and the Lasix-free condition, the pace could be faster and less controlled than in older-horse claimers. That increases the chance for one horse with a bit more stamina or professionalism to finish off the race while others tire late.

Key Contenders

Blameitonblantons (post 3, Green/Amparan)
Formscan points to him as the likely improver, noting he “could improve in this easier company and may prove too good.” Dropping into maiden claiming after facing tougher, and with a capable sprint barn, he has a strong chance to move forward. At 6 furlongs, additional distance should help him find rhythm and finish.​

Twisted Steel (post 6, Green/Medellin)
Also gets class relief and is highlighted as a main challenger, “dropping in class and could challenge.” His barn is dangerous in lower-level sprints, and he may have shown more early speed than Blameitonblantons. If he breaks sharply and secures position, he is a serious win threat and a key part of the exacta picture.​

American Secrets (post 7, Fincher/Andrade Jr.)
Another with “potential to do better” in this easier spot. Coming from a strong barn for two-year-olds, any improvement second or third time out would make him very competitive. If the Green pair engage each other too early, American Secrets could be the one picking up the pieces.​

Secondary Choices

Dashing American (post 8, Armstrong/Gomez)
New gelding adding first-time blinkers, which can sharpen focus and gate speed. He may outrun his early odds if the equipment change works, but still looks a slight notch below the main trio on paper. Exotics player.​

Senorita Buscador (post 1, Sedillo/Carmona)
From the rail and with local connections who have success with young stock, she can get a ground-saving trip if she breaks cleanly. However, her current ratings suggest she needs improvement to challenge the best of this group.​

Longshots

Michiga (post 2), Charlizeangelbaby (post 4), and One Horse Town (post 5) are more speculative types with modest current ratings and no obvious edge. Any could step forward with experience, but they are best framed as trifecta or superfecta fillers in a race that should revolve around the top three.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a competitive but shapeable race. A three-horse win and exacta approach using Blameitonblantons, Twisted Steel, and American Secrets should cover the most likely outcomes.

In verticals, lean on the Green pair and American Secrets for the top two spots, and sprinkle in Dashing American and Senorita Buscador underneath.

Because of the class relief angle, Blameitonblantons becomes the preferred win key if prices among the top three are close.

Selections

Win: Blameitonblantons
Place: Twisted Steel
Show: American Secrets

6th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

New Mexico-bred Allowance – 1 mile 70 yards, dirt – N1X/N2L

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:20 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

Lime Chilton from the rail and Three Martinis both have enough tactical speed to be forward early. Stand Up Guy has been running well in one-mile events and, as a lightly raced 3-year-old, tends to be handy enough to sit close. Grifter and Maximum Bull typically stalk or midpack, while Indys Song and Reads Pet Zenon are older grinders who do their best work later.​

With few pure front-runners, this race shapes up as a tactical route where the first quarter is moderate, and positional sense matters more than raw speed. The likely advantage goes to the horse who can secure a comfortable tracking spot in the first three turning up the backstretch.

Key Contenders

Stand Up Guy (post 7, Fincher/Fuentes)
Formscan calls him the one to beat, “looks the one to beat after a strong runner-up effort last time out.” He has run well in recent routes at this meet, including a solid second in a similar N1X-type spot. From an outer mid-gate post, he should be able to drop into a stalking position outside the leaders, and the barn’s strong meet stats add confidence. Clear top choice.​

Indys Song (post 6, Valdez-Cabral/Juarez)
Well-known older gelding with a history of consistency in higher-class races who “has been consistent in higher class races and could challenge.” While not as explosive as younger rivals, his experience and proven stamina make him dangerous if the younger horses fail to finish. He appeals strongly for exactas and trifectas.​

Three Martinis (post 3, Chavez/Amparan)
Highlighted as “also in with a chance.” The placement is aggressive but appropriate; he has some tactical pace and a rider-trainer combo that can work out a good trip. If he moves forward slightly on prior efforts and handles the two-turn distance, he is a viable upset candidate.​

Secondary Choices

Lime Chilton (post 1, Quiroz/Rosendo)
From the rail, likely to be asked for position immediately. If he can secure the pocket behind a modest pace, he can hang around for a minor share. However, he appears a small step below Stand Up Guy and Indys Song on raw ability.​

Grifter (post 4, Rojero/Gomez) and Reads Pet Zenon (post 2, Rojero/Sigala) both have route experience and enough ability to compete for minor awards, but their recent numbers and finishing efforts land them behind the top trio.​

Maximum Bull (post 8, Cross/Andrade Jr.)
Draws outside and tends to be more of a grinder. Needs things to fall apart ahead of him to get up for a check. Better used on the bottom of superfectas.

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Stand Up Guy is a logical single in multi-race bets and a strong win play if the price is fair. The key vertical strategy is to box or wheel him in exactas with Indys Song and Three Martinis, and to use those three heavily across trifecta combinations.

Given the reliance on one barn’s runner, some bettors may look to Indys Song as a value alternative win bet if the tote offers a significant price differential relative to Stand Up Guy.

Selections

Win: Stand Up Guy
Place: Indys Song
Show: Three Martinis

7th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

New Mexico-bred Claiming – 5.5 furlongs, dirt – fillies and mares N3L, 7,500

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 2:47 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

This is a crowded, competitive sprint with several who prefer to be near the front. Caden’s Girl, Forty Five, Sis Spender, La Bella Bella, and K P Blamengame all have some sprint speed in their profiles. Artful Rose can be forward or sit just off, while Annie Get Ur Guns and Why For typically sit midpack and look for a late run.​

With multiple forward-minded fillies, the pace should be strong. That scenario benefits high-quality pressing types who can sit a length or two off the lead and finish, rather than those who must duel on the engine.

Key Contenders

Sis Spender (post 5, Fincher/Fincher)
Formscan notes she “looks well-placed to follow up on her impressive last-time-out victory.” She has already won at this course and distance and has proven she can sit just off the leaders and finish strongly. The Fincher barn’s strong form and her recent work pattern make her a deserved favorite and the most likely winner.​

Forty Five (post 4, Lambert/Juarez)
Described as having “strong claims based on consistent form.” Her recent races show competitive figures against similar company, and the draw inside Sis Spender ensures she will be in a good stalking position. If Sis Spender fails to fire, Forty Five is the most likely beneficiary.​

Artful Rose (post 2, Armstrong/Amparan)
Comes off “a good runner-up effort” and could challenge again. She has shown the ability to chase a hot pace and still hang on late, which is valuable in a field full of pace types. From post 2 she should enjoy a ground-saving trip and could easily land in the exacta.​

Secondary Choices

Caden’s Girl (post 1, Valdez-Cabral/Da Silva)
Has some early foot and will have to use it from the rail. If she breaks cleanly and can maintain the inside, she could be a factor into the stretch, but she may be the one softened by the pursuit behind her.

K P Blamengame (post 8, Valdez-Cabral/Gomez)
Has enough pace to be involved early but may be best used underneath; she can hang around for a piece if the speed holds better than expected.​

Why For (post 9, Beltran/Carmona)
More of a midpack grinder, but her style fits a scenario where the leaders tire. Best as a trifecta or superfecta candidate.

Longshots

I Get Stormed (post 3), La Bella Bella (post 7), and Annie Get Ur Guns (post 10) have some appeal but lack the recent consistency or figures of the leading trio. Each could get involved for a piece, particularly Annie Get Ur Guns if the race collapses late, but they are still preferred as deeper exotics inclusions rather than win players.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

Sis Spender is a top win and multi-race key, but the presence of other capable sprinters injects some price potential in vertical wagers.

Use Sis Spender heavily on top in exactas with Forty Five and Artful Rose, and play trifectas that key Sis Spender first with Forty Five, Artful Rose, Caden’s Girl, and K P Blamengame underneath. A small saver exacta with Forty Five over Sis Spender is recommended if the odds gap is significant.

Selections

Win: Sis Spender
Place: Forty Five
Show: Artful Rose

8th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

New Mexico-bred Claiming – 6 furlongs, dirt – N4L or non-winners since June, 7,500

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:14 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

This is a big field of seasoned geldings, many of whom have shown early or tactical speed. Daux, Comfort J Byrd, Dora’s Storm, Valentino Who, Brandyn, Dan Who, Aaron Who, and Majorwayhome have all been involved early in prior local sprints. With so many potential pace players, the early fractions are likely to be sharp.​

Such a scenario favors the best-quality stalker who can sit just off the speed and pounce turning for home. It also opens the door slightly to a midpack grinder if the field lines up across the track and softens each other.

Key Contenders

Brandyn (post 6, Cappellucci/Juarez)
Formscan makes him the one to beat, noting he has “strong claims based on a good second last time out and looks the one to beat.” That recent runner-up effort at this meet came in a similar spot, and his stalking style is perfectly suited to a pace-heavy race. Combined with a hot trainer, he is a strong top choice.​

Comfort J Byrd (post 3, Cappellucci/Fuentes)
Arrives off an “impressive” last-out win and is rated next best by Formscan. The barn excels in claiming sprints, and this gelding has shown that he can deliver a strong late run if the pace is contested. He and Brandyn form a potent entry-type tandem for vertical wagers.​

Daux (post 1, Marr/Tohill)
Has prior success in allowance-level sprints regionally and is “another to consider.” From the rail, he will need to work out a trip without being shuffled back, but his prior form includes running on well late over this surface. If the outer speed horses cook each other, Daux is the prime candidate to pick up the pieces at a decent price.​

Secondary Choices

Valentino Who (post 5, Gonzalez/Rosendo)
Has recent form that stacks up with many in here and has shown both pace and closing ability depending on setup. He is a good candidate for second and third in exotics, especially in trifectas.​

Dan Who (post 7, Gonzalez/Vazquez) and Aaron Who (post 9, Olguin/Sigala) both have back races that make them competitive, though their recent efforts have been somewhat inconsistent. They are logical spread horses in multi-race sequences and deep vertical constructions.​

Majorwayhome (post 8, Cross/Andrade Jr.)
A route-to-sprint or class-adjustment type who can benefit if the race melts down. Not as sharp on raw speed but fits the “late-running minor award” profile.

Longshots

Dora’s Storm (post 4) and Cerveza (post 10) are not without talent but have more questions on current form and consistency. Strawberry Whisky (post 11) draws widest with age and exposed form; needs a near-perfect setup to get a major piece. All three are fringe exotics considerations only.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is an excellent betting race with multiple live options. Brandyn is the most logical win candidate and can be keyed atop trifectas and superfectas. Pair him with Comfort J Byrd and Daux in exactas and include Valentino Who and the Who-named geldings (Dan Who, Aaron Who) underneath.

Given the likely hot pace, Daux may offer the best value of the leading group if he is ignored on the tote. Consider a win saver on Daux if his price drifts significantly above that of Brandyn and Comfort J Byrd.

Selections

Win: Brandyn
Place: Comfort J Byrd
Show: Daux

9th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

New Mexico-bred Claiming – 5.5 furlongs, dirt – fillies and mares N2L, 7,500

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 3:41 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

Several fillies here have tactical or outright early speed: Mysterious Moves, She Mysterious, Ineedamarker, Musical Money, and Charlotte’s Spider can all be prominent early. Just Keep Laughin and Sapello Sweetee have shown ability but do not need the lead, and others like Hotshot Luk and Charliene typically run from just off the pace.​

Expect an honest to fast opening quarter, with the second flight of stalkers poised to take advantage if the leaders tangle. The key will be identifying which filly can sit just off the lead and still finish.

Key Contenders

Charlotte’s Spider (post 10, Chavez/Rosendo)
Formscan expects her to be “well placed to bounce back from a recent second-place finish.” She has already won over this course and distance and has run multiple good races at the level, including a strong placing behind a top barn’s runner in a similar claiming spot. Despite the outside draw, her tactical speed allows her to secure a good tracking position into the turn.​

She Mysterious (post 3, Chavez/Amparan)
Steps up in class after an “impressive maiden win last time out.” Although she was scratched from a November claiming race by a veterinarian, the fact she returns here suggests she has recovered sufficiently to compete. If she repeats or improves on her maiden performance, she is a serious win threat in this softer N2L field.​

Ineedamarker (post 4, Fincher/Valenzuela)
Drops in class and “could feature” per Formscan and has been highly regarded in earlier allowance company. Returning to claiming level and cutting back to 5.5 furlongs are both positives. With a strong barn and a top local rider, she is a major player and a critical part of any exotic strategy.​

Secondary Choices

Mysterious Moves (post 1, Green/Perez)
From the rail with decent prior form, she figures to be on or near the early lead. If she can secure a clean, uncontested trip and avoid a duel, she can hang around for a piece of the trifecta.​

Musical Money (post 5, Cappellucci/Fuentes)
Mentioned as a capable type in prior Formscan commentary and from a high-percentage sprint barn, she is another to consider for the underneath spots, especially in trifectas and superfectas.​

Just Keep Laughin (post 6, Beltran/Carmona) and Sapello Sweetee (post 8, Hernandez/Medellin) both have shown improved efforts at this meet and can be considered as midprice exotics fillers.​

Longshots

Lenda Hand (post 2), Jasmine Baby (post 7), Strike the Senses (post 9), Hotshot Luk (post 11), and Charliene (post 12) all have some individual merits but appear slightly below the top tier on recent figures and class relief profiles. They are most interesting as higher-priced inclusions in the bottom of supers.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This is a deep, competitive claiming race and one of the better betting opportunities on the card. The preferred approach is to box the three main win contenders (Charlotte’s Spider, She Mysterious, Ineedamarker) in exactas and trifectas, then add Mysterious Moves and Musical Money in the third and fourth slots.

Given her outside draw and consistent local form, Charlotte’s Spider is a reasonable win key if the price is fair. Ineedamarker, dropping in class from allowance form, may offer the best value if the market overweights recent finish positions rather than context.

Selections

Win: Ineedamarker
Place: Charlotte’s Spider
Show: She Mysterious

10th Race – Zia Park – Monday, December 1st, 2025

New Mexico-bred Allowance – 5 furlongs, dirt – 3–5-year-olds N2L

Post Time

Scheduled post time is 4:08 PM MT.

Pace Analysis

Short sprints at 5 furlongs typically yield sharp early fractions, and this field is no exception. G B Harrison from the rail, G G Hennessy, Jmark, Holy Bullet, El Huarache Prieto, Colfax Kid, Eyecandothisallday, and Gamblaway all have form that suggests they want to be in the first flight.​

With numerous pace-oriented runners, the first quarter could be very fast. This raises the premium on tactical versatility and finishing punch. A horse like Gamblaway, who has already shown the ability to pass horses late in prior 5-furlong tries, stands out in this setup.​

Key Contenders

Gamblaway (post 10, Green/Arboleda)
Formscan calls him the likely winner, noting he “has strong form and looks the one to beat after a close second last time out.” He has already won at this meet in a 5.5-furlong maiden and just missed in a similar N2L spot after a wide trip. His draw outside the main speed gives his rider options: track the pace three wide and pounce, or drop in slightly if he breaks sharply. Top choice.​

G G Hennessy (post 2, Aldavaz/Andrade Jr.)
Posed as a serious threat “if building on recent efforts.” He has been right there in prior sprints and should enjoy an inside stalking trip behind G B Harrison. If Gamblaway is forced wide or gets shuffled back, G G Hennessy is the most likely to capitalize.​

Jmark (post 3, Hernandez/Perez)
Another consistent type singled out as one “to consider based on consistent performances.” He has been competitive at similar allowance levels and has enough tactical foot to secure a forward stalking trip. He may offer better value than the top two while possessing a reasonably similar ceiling.​

Secondary Choices

Holy Bullet (post 6, Ramirez/Amparan)
Capable sprinter from a barn that has done well in these short NM-bred races. If he can avoid being embroiled in an early duel, he might hang on for a minor award.​

G B Harrison (post 1, Henry/Gomez)
From the rail in a 5-furlong dash, likely to be sent hard. If he clears and the outer speed horses hesitate, he becomes a danger. However, the presence of multiple pace challengers just outside him increases the chance he is softened up late.

Stackers (post 4, Tucumcari/Carmona), Colfax Kid (post 8, Cross/Juarez), and Eyecandothisallday (post 9, Armstrong/Ramos) are respectable runners with enough ability to land parts of the trifecta, but their win chances are slightly below the top trio.​

Longshots

Adiel (post 5) and El Huarache Prieto (post 7) have flashes of talent but inconsistent form. They both figure to be part of the early fray and might compromise each other more than help. Best used sparingly in deeper exotics.​

Betting Strategy and Wagering Angles

This finale is tailor-made for strong vertical play built around Gamblaway. Key him on top in exactas and trifectas with G G Hennessy and Jmark primarily, and use Holy Bullet, G B Harrison, Stackers, Colfax Kid, and Eyecandothisallday underneath.

In horizontal bets, structure late Pick 3 or Pick 4 tickets with Gamblaway as an A-level single and G G Hennessy and Jmark as B-level backups for coverage.

Selections

Win: Gamblaway
Place: G G Hennessy
Show: Jmark

Jockey Notes and Insights

At the current meet, jockey statistics through the end of November show a clear group of top riders at Zia Park.​

Alfredo Juarez Jr. has been one of the most effective riders, with 8 wins from 23 mounts (approximately 35 percent wins) and a strong in-the-money rate. He is aboard key runners like Your Money (Race 2), Forty Five (Race 7), Brandyn (Race 8), Lenda Hand (Race 9), and Colfax Kid (Race 8), making his mounts automatic contenders when their form fits.​

Luis Valenzuela has also enjoyed a productive meet, with 6 wins and numerous placings from 32 rides. He is particularly notable on front-runners and tactical speed types. Today he partners Boltless (Race 1), Native Charmer and Stand Up Guy (Races 4 and 6), Ineedamarker (Race 9), and others, aligning him with several of the card’s strongest betting choices.​

Enrique Portillo Gomez and Francisco Amparan have each performed well with local barns, especially in sprints and with young horses. Gomez rides horses such as El Chino Vaca, Dashing American, Grifter, and K P Blamengame, while Amparan is aboard Hugh Glass, Blameitonblantons, and Holy Bullet, each in spots where a positive ride can significantly impact the outcome.​

Jose L. Torres, Christian Ramos, Miguel Perez, and Oscar Andrade Jr. round out a capable colony with strong records in specific niches. Ramos has been particularly effective on route horses and closers, as seen on Barossa and other route stakes runners earlier in the meet.​

Key points for today’s card:

Top win-percentage riders Juarez and Valenzuela are on several of the main favorites.
Riders who fit aggressive sprint styles, like Amparan and Gomez, are well matched with speed horses in pace-heavy races.
Knowing which jockeys excel with 2-year-olds (such as Andrade Jr. and some of the Fincher-ridden juveniles) is particularly important in Race 5 and Race 10.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Trainer stats and recent meet results highlight several barns as particularly influential at this Zia meet.​

Todd Fincher has been exceptional, with one set of speed-figure-based stats showing 35 starts, 12 wins, 7 seconds, and 4 thirds (around a 34 percent win rate) in a recent sample. His horses are well-prepared, often improve with experience, and are especially effective with two-year-olds and New Mexico-bred allowance types. Today his key runners include R R Bougie, Native Charmer, Tiz the Spirit (Race 4), American Secrets (Race 5), Stand Up Guy (Race 6), Sis Spender (Race 7), Ineedamarker (Race 9), and Eyecandothisallday (Race 10). Many of these are legitimate win candidates and should be respected in all pools.​

Dick Cappellucci is another high-percentage trainer this meet, with one recent sample showing 21 starts and 6 wins (around 29 percent), plus strong in-the-money figures. His barn specializes in sprints and front-running types. On today’s card, he sends out Your Money (Race 2), Comfort J Byrd and Brandyn (Race 8), and Musical Money (Race 9), all of whom figure prominently in their respective spots.​

Martin Valdez-Cabral, Joel Marr, Sherry Armstrong, and Arturo Chavez are also important local players. Valdez-Cabral continues to rack up wins with statebreds in both sprints and routes, while Marr’s runners are typically well-placed and live when they show up in conditioned allowance and claiming spots. Armstrong has a strong record developing mid-priced claimers and allowance horses who excel at Zia’s one-mile oval, and Chavez has enjoyed success with fillies and mares in the claiming and allowance ranks.​

Ike and Greg Green operate a very effective claiming and allowance program, especially with sprinters and horses moving into their barn off a claim or layoff. Greg Green, in particular, has capable setups in the last few races, including Mysterious Moves and Gamblaway, which could provide late-card betting opportunities.​

Key trainer themes for this card:

Fincher runners demand respect almost every time they appear, especially today in Races 4, 6, 7, 9, and 10.
Cappellucci’s claimers and allowance sprinters (notably in Races 2, 8, and 9) often outrun their odds and are excellent candidates for win and exacta plays.
Barns like Armstrong, Marr, Chavez, and Green are reliable for exotics and value plays, especially when their runners appear second or third off a layoff or dropping slightly in class.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

Given the card structure, there are several strong favorites suitable as keys and a handful of races where a more contrarian stance can yield value.

Primary single candidates in multi-race wagers:

Race 1: Boltless – clear class and pace edge in a small field.​
Race 2: Your Money – proven winner at the level with class edge, though must respect Flaquita and a debuting rival.​
Race 4: R R Bougie – strongest allowance filly on figures and form.​
Race 6: Stand Up Guy – class and consistency in a fairly thin NM-bred route.​
Race 7: Sis Spender – recent dominating win, same conditions, and strong barn.​

Strong win and exacta opportunities:

Race 3: Barossa over Dennard and Cat Gamer – the class dropper with proven route form is a solid win key, with two clear underneath partners.​
Race 5: Blameitonblantons and Twisted Steel – juveniles with class relief in a chaotic maiden claimer; both offer better potential returns than an odds-on favorite would in similar circumstances.​
Race 8: Brandyn over Comfort J Byrd and Daux – lucrative trifecta structure if Daux is overlooked.​
Race 10: Gamblaway over G G Hennessy and Jmark – classic pace-collapse setup with a finishing 3-year-old allowance colt as the anchor.​

Potential value plays:

Race 2: If Love N Be Loved takes less money relative to Your Money and Flaquita, she can still be an overlay for exotics as a first-time starter with upside.
Race 3: Cat Gamer as a price horse who can hit the board regularly and may sneak into a win if the top two underperform.​
Race 8: Daux as a class-tested closer who could capitalize on a pace meltdown at a mid- to high-single-digit price.​
Race 9: Ineedamarker dropping from allowance company may be undervalued if the crowd leans heavily on recency rather than class; she is a legitimate win bet at the right price.​

Horizontal strategy outline:

Early Pick 4 (Races 1–4):
Single Boltless in Race 1, spread moderately in Race 2 (Your Money, Flaquita, Love N Be Loved), lean on Barossa and Dennard with Cat Gamer backup in Race 3, and narrow again in Race 4 with the Fincher trio, emphasizing R R Bougie and Native Charmer.

Middle sequence (Races 3–7):
Use Barossa as an A-level horse with Dennard and Cat Gamer as Bs in Race 3, then include key Fincher runners in Races 4, 5, 6, and 7, with Blameitonblantons and Twisted Steel as key value components in Race 5.

Late Pick 4 (Races 7–10):
Key Sis Spender in Race 7, spread in Race 8 around Brandyn, Comfort J Byrd, Daux, Valentino Who, and one or two Who-named geldings; in Race 9 lean on Ineedamarker, Charlotte’s Spider, and She Mysterious, and close with Gamblaway as a strong A in Race 10, backed by G G Hennessy and Jmark.

By combining clear chalk singles in a couple of races with well-chosen value and spread positions in the deeper claiming events, the card offers several pathways to constructing efficient yet potentially lucrative tickets across the day.