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Pick Pony AI Picks and Predictions Tip Sheet – Remington Park, November 6, 2026

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How the ladder works: Algo 1 is our weighted rating. Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) is our strongest pick source: on our weekly scoreboard it is the only one that picks winners at a higher rate than the morning-line favourite. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) is a different kind of tool: it puts a calibrated win chance and a fair price on every horse, which is what the Kelly Edge Plays and the Live Overlays board are built on. As a win pick it currently trails Algo 2 and the morning-line favourite, so use it to price and size a bet rather than to choose a horse over Algo 2. Starter members get Algo 1 and Today's Best Bets (every race where one of our AI algorithms agrees with the expert consensus); Insider adds Algo 2 and the sharper Best Bets list, only the races where Algo 2 agrees with the experts; Handicapper adds Algo 3, the exotics structures, the Kelly Edge Plays and the experimental weight sets we use to test weight changes. We also provide handpicked Expert Picks from Pick Pony's analysts.

How these picks are timed: our AI ranks every race the night before, from the official past performances as published. Each morning we apply the official Equibase scratches and surface changes and re-rank any race they affect. If a pick on this page changed, an AI Morning Update section is added above with the new selection and the reason. Always check the scratches before betting.

Remember: Our AI models trend towards value. When deciding whether to bet a horse to win, place, or show, always look for value in the odds (read our article on betting and odds for more information).

AI Picks – Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)ⓘ
Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) at Remington Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 320 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-08-21 to 2026-11-04.

0%11%22%34%45%Our top pick: 35.9% from 320 racesOur top pick35.9%Morning-line favourite: 33.1% from 320 racesMorning-line favourite33.1%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.9%320
Morning-line favourite33.1%320
 
Race 1  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
◆ Strong spot — an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:6Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:4Volden (9/2)
Show:1Mi Bella Reina (10/1)
Other contenders:9American Candy (4/1), 3Sunday Frost (10/1), 2Saver's Joy (8/1)
Rest of field:7Maricamp Road (5/1), 5Amelia's Edge (15/1), 10Dana Might (20/1), 8Ava J (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 649173
🎯 Longshots: 69413725108
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #1, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000, an early race on the card: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:5Cloud Number Nine (7/2)
Place:2Balladry (9/2)
Show:4Rainbow Smiles (5/2)
Other contenders:3My Julia (5/1), 1Lady Admiral (6/1), 6Ms. Hillary (10/1)
Rest of field:8Miss You No More (8/1), 7She's A Bond Too (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 524316
🎯 Longshots: 58267431
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:7Attack Now (2/1)
Place:2Bravitas (6/1)
Show:3Deposit Insurance (4/1)
Other contenders:1Board Of Directors (3/1), 5Fitzgerald (9/2)
Rest of field:6Toms Prospector (10/1), 4Boundless Optimist (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 732156
🎯 Longshots: 7263415
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $33,000
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
Win:1Fluid Situation (3/1)
Place:7Bad Beat Brian (5/2)
Show:4Moral Dilemma (9/2)
Other contenders:2Carlea's Dream (8/1), 6Blue Light (8/1), 5Marcus Gift (12/1)
Rest of field:3Stayed In For Half (4/1), 8Under Oath (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174263
🎯 Longshots: 12756843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
★ Strong disagreement — our model and the betting favourite land on different horses here, and this is the kind of race where that has paid off best.
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Steel Link (4/1)
Place:6John (8/1)
Show:5Laws Of Man (3/1)
Other contenders:9Golden Rebal (5/1), 4Fastened (6/1), 8Third Street (10/1)
Rest of field:2Bobby Brinkley (15/1), 10Ooey Gooey Chewy (8/1), 3Beau Day (15/1), 7Bolt Supremacy (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 156948
🎯 Longshots: 62185943107
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
◆ Strong spot — a purse under $30,000: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2More Coffee (3/1)
Place:9Reactionary (4/1)
Show:3Clearly Clover (5/1)
Other contenders:10Irish Lass (10/1), 4Vivis In Front (6/1), 11Susan Yvonne (12/1), 5Melly's Birkin (15/1)
Rest of field:8Crime Scene (20/1), 12Love Me Some Candy (20/1), 7Fish And Whistle (10/1), 6Speaker Baby (20/1), 1Grayrock Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 29341011
🎯 Longshots: 211951210843761
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:1Helicity (2/1)
Place:2Vintage Cowboy (3/1)
Show:4Ak Sar Ben Derby (4/1)
Other contenders:3Moneymilitia (8/1), 5Baker Hayfield (6/1), 6Summer Help (8/1)
Rest of field:7Rockin His Sox Off (20/1), 8Riding Double (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124536
🎯 Longshots: 14236758
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Mister Omaha (2/1)
Place:9Breakable Code (9/2)
Show:1Nucleus (4/1)
Other contenders:5Royalamerican (8/1), 7Classy Empire (10/1), 8Cajun Stoops (8/1)
Rest of field:6Connors Outlaw (6/1), 4Missin Hollywood (20/1), 2I Am What I Am (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 391568
🎯 Longshots: 358791246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
◆ Strong spot — a route of a mile or more: the kind of race where the AI Ensemble has beaten the morning-line favourite most often.
Win:2Drain The Shot (5/2)
Place:11Mister Okie (4/1)
Show:3Okie Dokie M (6/1)
Other contenders:8By My Boss (5/1), 4Twice Last Year (12/1), 5Gospel Russell (8/1), 9Dan Golden (15/1)
Rest of field:10Chase's Mojo (15/1), 1Tizcolonelforce (15/1), 7Breakin Passed (20/1), 6Pennington (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2113845
🎯 Longshots: 2114835910617
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)ⓘ
Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) at Remington Park — win rate

How often each one actually won. Same races, side by side. 245 graded races at Remington Park, 2026-09-10 to 2026-11-04.

0%11%22%34%45%Our top pick: 35.9% from 245 racesOur top pick35.9%Morning-line favourite: 33.1% from 245 racesMorning-line favourite33.1%

The morning line is the track handicapper's overnight price, not the final tote odds. Thoroughbred races only. Races where our pick was scratched are excluded — a scratch is a refund, not a loss.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Our top pick35.9%245
Morning-line favourite33.1%245
 
Race 1  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:6Lead By Example (5/2) 49% · fair 1-1 overlay +139%
Place:1Mi Bella Reina (10/1) 13% · fair 7-1 overlay +45%
Show:4Volden (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -57%
Other contenders:2Saver's Joy (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%, 3Sunday Frost (10/1) 7% · fair 27-2 underlay -25%, 9American Candy (4/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -75%
Rest of field:7Maricamp Road (5/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -71%, 5Amelia's Edge (15/1) 3% · fair 38-1 underlay -60%, 10Dana Might (20/1) 1% · fair 111-1 underlay -82%, 8Ava J (20/1) 1% · fair 387-2 underlay -90%
Race 1 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Lead By Example — 48.9% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Lead By Example48.9% ◀Mi Bella Reina — 12.6% win probability, morning line 10/1Mi Bella Reina12.6%Volden — 8.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Volden8.8%Saver'S Joy — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Saver'S Joy7.3%Sunday Frost — 7.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Sunday Frost7.0%American Candy — 5.9% win probability, morning line 4/1American Candy5.9%Maricamp Road — 5.5% win probability, morning line 5/1Maricamp Road5.5%Amelia'S Edge — 2.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Amelia'S Edge2.6%Dana Might — 0.9% win probability, morning line 20/1Dana Might0.9%Ava J — 0.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Ava J0.5%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Lead By Example48.9%2.5/1
Mi Bella Reina12.6%10/1
Volden8.8%4.5/1
Saver'S Joy7.3%8/1
Sunday Frost7.0%10/1
American Candy5.9%4/1
Maricamp Road5.5%5/1
Amelia'S Edge2.6%15/1
Dana Might0.9%20/1
Ava J0.5%20/1
Race 1 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherLead By Example: model 48.9% vs market 22.2% (+26.7 points)Lead By Example+26.7Mi Bella Reina: model 12.6% vs market 7.1% (+5.6 points)Mi Bella Reina+5.6Volden: model 8.8% vs market 14.2% (-5.4 points)Volden-5.4Saver'S Joy: model 7.3% vs market 8.6% (-1.3 points)Saver'S Joy-1.3Sunday Frost: model 7.0% vs market 7.1% (-0.1 points)Sunday Frost-0.1American Candy: model 5.9% vs market 15.6% (-9.7 points)American Candy-9.7Maricamp Road: model 5.5% vs market 13.0% (-7.5 points)Maricamp Road-7.5Amelia'S Edge: model 2.6% vs market 4.9% (-2.3 points)Amelia'S Edge-2.3Dana Might: model 0.9% vs market 3.7% (-2.8 points)Dana Might-2.8Ava J: model 0.5% vs market 3.7% (-3.2 points)Ava J-3.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Lead By Example48.9%22.2%+26.7
Mi Bella Reina12.6%7.1%+5.6
Volden8.8%14.2%-5.4
Saver'S Joy7.3%8.6%-1.3
Sunday Frost7.0%7.1%-0.1
American Candy5.9%15.6%-9.7
Maricamp Road5.5%13.0%-7.5
Amelia'S Edge2.6%4.9%-2.3
Dana Might0.9%3.7%-2.8
Ava J0.5%3.7%-3.2
🌧️ Off-track: 649712
🎯 Longshots: 69413725108
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:5Cloud Number Nine (7/2) 24% · fair 3-1
Place:2Balladry (9/2) 18% · fair 9-2
Show:4Rainbow Smiles (5/2) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -59%
Other contenders:3My Julia (5/1) 12% · fair 7-1 underlay -30%, 8Miss You No More (8/1) 11% · fair 8-1, 6Ms. Hillary (10/1) 8% · fair 23-2
Rest of field:1Lady Admiral (6/1) 8% · fair 12-1 underlay -50%, 7She's A Bond Too (12/1) 5% · fair 35-2 underlay -31%
Race 2 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Cloud Number Nine — 23.9% win probability, morning line 3.5/1Cloud Number Nine23.9% ◀Balladry — 17.6% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Balladry17.6%Rainbow Smiles — 14.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Rainbow Smiles14.2%My Julia — 12.2% win probability, morning line 5/1My Julia12.2%Miss You No More — 11.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Miss You No More11.0%Ms. Hillary — 8.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Ms. Hillary8.0%Lady Admiral — 7.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Lady Admiral7.7%She'S A Bond Too — 5.4% win probability, morning line 12/1She'S A Bond Too5.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Cloud Number Nine23.9%3.5/1
Balladry17.6%4.5/1
Rainbow Smiles14.2%2.5/1
My Julia12.2%5/1
Miss You No More11.0%8/1
Ms. Hillary8.0%10/1
Lady Admiral7.7%6/1
She'S A Bond Too5.4%12/1
Race 2 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherCloud Number Nine: model 23.9% vs market 17.4% (+6.5 points)Cloud Number Nine+6.5Balladry: model 17.6% vs market 14.2% (+3.3 points)Balladry+3.3Rainbow Smiles: model 14.2% vs market 22.4% (-8.2 points)Rainbow Smiles-8.2My Julia: model 12.2% vs market 13.0% (-0.8 points)My Julia-0.8Miss You No More: model 11.0% vs market 8.7% (+2.3 points)Miss You No More+2.3Ms. Hillary: model 8.0% vs market 7.1% (+0.9 points)Ms. Hillary+0.9Lady Admiral: model 7.7% vs market 11.2% (-3.4 points)Lady Admiral-3.4She'S A Bond Too: model 5.4% vs market 6.0% (-0.6 points)She'S A Bond Too-0.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Cloud Number Nine23.9%17.4%+6.5
Balladry17.6%14.2%+3.3
Rainbow Smiles14.2%22.4%-8.2
My Julia12.2%13.0%-0.8
Miss You No More11.0%8.7%+2.3
Ms. Hillary8.0%7.1%+0.9
Lady Admiral7.7%11.2%-3.4
She'S A Bond Too5.4%6.0%-0.6
🌧️ Off-track: 542381
🎯 Longshots: 58267431
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:7Attack Now (2/1) 32% · fair 2-1
Place:2Bravitas (6/1) 22% · fair 7-2 overlay +66%
Show:3Deposit Insurance (4/1) 15% · fair 11-2 underlay -28%
Other contenders:1Board Of Directors (3/1) 11% · fair 8-1 underlay -61%, 5Fitzgerald (9/2) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -56%
Rest of field:6Toms Prospector (10/1) 6% · fair 33-2 underlay -40%, 4Boundless Optimist (10/1) 5% · fair 37-2 underlay -46%
Race 3 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Attack Now — 32.1% win probability, morning line 2/1Attack Now32.1% ◀Bravitas — 21.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Bravitas21.7%Deposit Insurance — 15.2% win probability, morning line 4/1Deposit Insurance15.2%Board Of Directors — 11.4% win probability, morning line 3/1Board Of Directors11.4%Fitzgerald — 8.8% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Fitzgerald8.8%Toms Prospector — 5.7% win probability, morning line 10/1Toms Prospector5.7%Boundless Optimist — 5.1% win probability, morning line 10/1Boundless Optimist5.1%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Attack Now32.1%2/1
Bravitas21.7%6/1
Deposit Insurance15.2%4/1
Board Of Directors11.4%3/1
Fitzgerald8.8%4.5/1
Toms Prospector5.7%10/1
Boundless Optimist5.1%10/1
Race 3 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherAttack Now: model 32.1% vs market 25.8% (+6.3 points)Attack Now+6.3Bravitas: model 21.7% vs market 11.1% (+10.6 points)Bravitas+10.6Deposit Insurance: model 15.2% vs market 15.5% (-0.3 points)Deposit Insurance-0.3Board Of Directors: model 11.4% vs market 19.4% (-8.0 points)Board Of Directors-8.0Fitzgerald: model 8.8% vs market 14.1% (-5.2 points)Fitzgerald-5.2Toms Prospector: model 5.7% vs market 7.0% (-1.4 points)Toms Prospector-1.4Boundless Optimist: model 5.1% vs market 7.0% (-2.0 points)Boundless Optimist-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Attack Now32.1%25.8%+6.3
Bravitas21.7%11.1%+10.6
Deposit Insurance15.2%15.5%-0.3
Board Of Directors11.4%19.4%-8.0
Fitzgerald8.8%14.1%-5.2
Toms Prospector5.7%7.0%-1.4
Boundless Optimist5.1%7.0%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 721356
🎯 Longshots: 7263415
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #2, #3, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $33,000
Win:1Fluid Situation (3/1) 21% · fair 7-2
Place:7Bad Beat Brian (5/2) 19% · fair 4-1 underlay -41%
Show:6Blue Light (8/1) 16% · fair 5-1 overlay +53%
Other contenders:4Moral Dilemma (9/2) 14% · fair 13-2 underlay -29%, 2Carlea's Dream (8/1) 12% · fair 15-2, 5Marcus Gift (12/1) 7% · fair 25-2
Rest of field:3Stayed In For Half (4/1) 6% · fair 16-1 underlay -75%, 8Under Oath (15/1) 5% · fair 20-1
Race 4 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Fluid Situation — 21.2% win probability, morning line 3/1Fluid Situation21.2% ◀Bad Beat Brian — 19.2% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Bad Beat Brian19.2%Blue Light — 16.0% win probability, morning line 8/1Blue Light16.0%Moral Dilemma — 13.7% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Moral Dilemma13.7%Carlea'S Dream — 11.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Carlea'S Dream11.8%Marcus Gift — 7.5% win probability, morning line 12/1Marcus Gift7.5%Stayed In For Half — 5.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Stayed In For Half5.8%Under Oath — 4.8% win probability, morning line 15/1Under Oath4.8%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Fluid Situation21.2%3/1
Bad Beat Brian19.2%2.5/1
Blue Light16.0%8/1
Moral Dilemma13.7%4.5/1
Carlea'S Dream11.8%8/1
Marcus Gift7.5%12/1
Stayed In For Half5.8%4/1
Under Oath4.8%15/1
Race 4 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherFluid Situation: model 21.2% vs market 19.5% (+1.7 points)Fluid Situation+1.7Bad Beat Brian: model 19.2% vs market 22.3% (-3.2 points)Bad Beat Brian-3.2Blue Light: model 16.0% vs market 8.7% (+7.4 points)Blue Light+7.4Moral Dilemma: model 13.7% vs market 14.2% (-0.5 points)Moral Dilemma-0.5Carlea'S Dream: model 11.8% vs market 8.7% (+3.1 points)Carlea'S Dream+3.1Marcus Gift: model 7.5% vs market 6.0% (+1.4 points)Marcus Gift+1.4Stayed In For Half: model 5.8% vs market 15.6% (-9.8 points)Stayed In For Half-9.8Under Oath: model 4.8% vs market 4.9% (-0.1 points)Under Oath-0.1

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Fluid Situation21.2%19.5%+1.7
Bad Beat Brian19.2%22.3%-3.2
Blue Light16.0%8.7%+7.4
Moral Dilemma13.7%14.2%-0.5
Carlea'S Dream11.8%8.7%+3.1
Marcus Gift7.5%6.0%+1.4
Stayed In For Half5.8%15.6%-9.8
Under Oath4.8%4.9%-0.1
🌧️ Off-track: 174632
🎯 Longshots: 12756843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:6John (8/1) 19% · fair 4-1 overlay +92%
Place:1Steel Link (4/1) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:5Laws Of Man (3/1) 14% · fair 6-1 underlay -50%
Other contenders:9Golden Rebal (5/1) 12% · fair 15-2 underlay -31%, 8Third Street (10/1) 10% · fair 17-2, 4Fastened (6/1) 9% · fair 19-2 underlay -37%
Rest of field:2Bobby Brinkley (15/1) 6% · fair 33-2, 10Ooey Gooey Chewy (8/1) 4% · fair 51-2 underlay -69%, 7Bolt Supremacy (12/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -61%, 3Beau Day (15/1) 3% · fair 67-2 underlay -55%
Race 5 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

John — 19.3% win probability, morning line 8/1John19.3% ◀Steel Link — 19.0% win probability, morning line 4/1Steel Link19.0%Laws Of Man — 14.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Laws Of Man14.3%Golden Rebal — 12.1% win probability, morning line 5/1Golden Rebal12.1%Third Street — 10.3% win probability, morning line 10/1Third Street10.3%Fastened — 9.4% win probability, morning line 6/1Fastened9.4%Bobby Brinkley — 5.7% win probability, morning line 15/1Bobby Brinkley5.7%Ooey Gooey Chewy — 3.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Ooey Gooey Chewy3.8%Bolt Supremacy — 3.2% win probability, morning line 12/1Bolt Supremacy3.2%Beau Day — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Beau Day2.9%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
John19.3%8/1
Steel Link19.0%4/1
Laws Of Man14.3%3/1
Golden Rebal12.1%5/1
Third Street10.3%10/1
Fastened9.4%6/1
Bobby Brinkley5.7%15/1
Ooey Gooey Chewy3.8%8/1
Bolt Supremacy3.2%12/1
Beau Day2.9%15/1
Race 5 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherJohn: model 19.3% vs market 8.7% (+10.6 points)John+10.6Steel Link: model 19.0% vs market 15.7% (+3.3 points)Steel Link+3.3Laws Of Man: model 14.3% vs market 19.6% (-5.3 points)Laws Of Man-5.3Golden Rebal: model 12.1% vs market 13.1% (-1.0 points)Golden Rebal-1.0Third Street: model 10.3% vs market 7.1% (+3.2 points)Third Street+3.2Fastened: model 9.4% vs market 11.2% (-1.8 points)Fastened-1.8Bobby Brinkley: model 5.7% vs market 4.9% (+0.8 points)Bobby Brinkley+0.8Ooey Gooey Chewy: model 3.8% vs market 8.7% (-5.0 points)Ooey Gooey Chewy-5.0Bolt Supremacy: model 3.2% vs market 6.0% (-2.9 points)Bolt Supremacy-2.9Beau Day: model 2.9% vs market 4.9% (-2.0 points)Beau Day-2.0

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
John19.3%8.7%+10.6
Steel Link19.0%15.7%+3.3
Laws Of Man14.3%19.6%-5.3
Golden Rebal12.1%13.1%-1.0
Third Street10.3%7.1%+3.2
Fastened9.4%11.2%-1.8
Bobby Brinkley5.7%4.9%+0.8
Ooey Gooey Chewy3.8%8.7%-5.0
Bolt Supremacy3.2%6.0%-2.9
Beau Day2.9%4.9%-2.0
🌧️ Off-track: 156948
🎯 Longshots: 62185943107
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:2More Coffee (3/1) 33% · fair 2-1 overlay +45%
Place:9Reactionary (4/1) 13% · fair 13-2 underlay -39%
Show:3Clearly Clover (5/1) 10% · fair 19-2 underlay -46%
Other contenders:10Irish Lass (10/1) 9% · fair 19-2, 4Vivis In Front (6/1) 9% · fair 21-2 underlay -43%, 11Susan Yvonne (12/1) 7% · fair 14-1, 5Melly's Birkin (15/1) 6% · fair 16-1
Rest of field:8Crime Scene (20/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -30%, 6Speaker Baby (20/1) 3% · fair 61-2 underlay -34%, 12Love Me Some Candy (20/1) 3% · fair 32-1 underlay -38%, 7Fish And Whistle (10/1) 2% · fair 81-2 underlay -75%, 1Grayrock Lady (20/1) 2% · fair 127-2 underlay -68%
Race 6 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

More Coffee — 32.6% win probability, morning line 3/1More Coffee32.6% ◀Reactionary — 13.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Reactionary13.3%Clearly Clover — 9.7% win probability, morning line 5/1Clearly Clover9.7%Irish Lass — 9.5% win probability, morning line 10/1Irish Lass9.5%Vivis In Front — 8.7% win probability, morning line 6/1Vivis In Front8.7%Susan Yvonne — 6.7% win probability, morning line 12/1Susan Yvonne6.7%Melly'S Birkin — 5.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Melly'S Birkin5.9%Crime Scene — 3.4% win probability, morning line 20/1Crime Scene3.4%Speaker Baby — 3.2% win probability, morning line 20/1Speaker Baby3.2%Love Me Some Candy — 3.0% win probability, morning line 20/1Love Me Some Candy3.0%Fish And Whistle — 2.4% win probability, morning line 10/1Fish And Whistle2.4%Grayrock Lady — 1.6% win probability, morning line 20/1Grayrock Lady1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
More Coffee32.6%3/1
Reactionary13.3%4/1
Clearly Clover9.7%5/1
Irish Lass9.5%10/1
Vivis In Front8.7%6/1
Susan Yvonne6.7%12/1
Melly'S Birkin5.9%15/1
Crime Scene3.4%20/1
Speaker Baby3.2%20/1
Love Me Some Candy3.0%20/1
Fish And Whistle2.4%10/1
Grayrock Lady1.6%20/1
Race 6 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMore Coffee: model 32.6% vs market 19.7% (+13.0 points)More Coffee+13.0Reactionary: model 13.3% vs market 15.7% (-2.4 points)Reactionary-2.4Clearly Clover: model 9.7% vs market 13.1% (-3.4 points)Clearly Clover-3.4Irish Lass: model 9.5% vs market 7.2% (+2.3 points)Irish Lass+2.3Vivis In Front: model 8.7% vs market 11.2% (-2.6 points)Vivis In Front-2.6Susan Yvonne: model 6.7% vs market 6.1% (+0.7 points)Susan Yvonne+0.7Melly'S Birkin: model 5.9% vs market 4.9% (+1.0 points)Melly'S Birkin+1.0Crime Scene: model 3.4% vs market 3.7% (-0.4 points)Crime Scene-0.4Speaker Baby: model 3.2% vs market 3.7% (-0.6 points)Speaker Baby-0.6Love Me Some Candy: model 3.0% vs market 3.7% (-0.7 points)Love Me Some Candy-0.7Fish And Whistle: model 2.4% vs market 7.2% (-4.7 points)Fish And Whistle-4.7Grayrock Lady: model 1.6% vs market 3.7% (-2.2 points)Grayrock Lady-2.2

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
More Coffee32.6%19.7%+13.0
Reactionary13.3%15.7%-2.4
Clearly Clover9.7%13.1%-3.4
Irish Lass9.5%7.2%+2.3
Vivis In Front8.7%11.2%-2.6
Susan Yvonne6.7%6.1%+0.7
Melly'S Birkin5.9%4.9%+1.0
Crime Scene3.4%3.7%-0.4
Speaker Baby3.2%3.7%-0.6
Love Me Some Candy3.0%3.7%-0.7
Fish And Whistle2.4%7.2%-4.7
Grayrock Lady1.6%3.7%-2.2
🌧️ Off-track: 29341011
🎯 Longshots: 211951210843761
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:1Helicity (2/1) 29% · fair 5-2
Place:2Vintage Cowboy (3/1) 23% · fair 7-2
Show:4Ak Sar Ben Derby (4/1) 21% · fair 4-1
Other contenders:5Baker Hayfield (6/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -29%, 3Moneymilitia (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -29%, 6Summer Help (8/1) 3% · fair 57-2 underlay -72%
Rest of field:7Rockin His Sox Off (20/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -42%, 8Riding Double (15/1) 2% · fair 121-2 underlay -75%
Race 7 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Helicity — 29.2% win probability, morning line 2/1Helicity29.2% ◀Vintage Cowboy — 23.3% win probability, morning line 3/1Vintage Cowboy23.3%Ak Sar Ben Derby — 20.8% win probability, morning line 4/1Ak Sar Ben Derby20.8%Baker Hayfield — 10.6% win probability, morning line 6/1Baker Hayfield10.6%Moneymilitia — 8.2% win probability, morning line 8/1Moneymilitia8.2%Summer Help — 3.4% win probability, morning line 8/1Summer Help3.4%Rockin His Sox Off — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Rockin His Sox Off2.8%Riding Double — 1.6% win probability, morning line 15/1Riding Double1.6%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Helicity29.2%2/1
Vintage Cowboy23.3%3/1
Ak Sar Ben Derby20.8%4/1
Baker Hayfield10.6%6/1
Moneymilitia8.2%8/1
Summer Help3.4%8/1
Rockin His Sox Off2.8%20/1
Riding Double1.6%15/1
Race 7 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherHelicity: model 29.2% vs market 26.5% (+2.7 points)Helicity+2.7Vintage Cowboy: model 23.3% vs market 19.9% (+3.5 points)Vintage Cowboy+3.5Ak Sar Ben Derby: model 20.8% vs market 15.9% (+4.9 points)Ak Sar Ben Derby+4.9Baker Hayfield: model 10.6% vs market 11.4% (-0.7 points)Baker Hayfield-0.7Moneymilitia: model 8.2% vs market 8.8% (-0.7 points)Moneymilitia-0.7Summer Help: model 3.4% vs market 8.8% (-5.4 points)Summer Help-5.4Rockin His Sox Off: model 2.8% vs market 3.8% (-1.0 points)Rockin His Sox Off-1.0Riding Double: model 1.6% vs market 5.0% (-3.3 points)Riding Double-3.3

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Helicity29.2%26.5%+2.7
Vintage Cowboy23.3%19.9%+3.5
Ak Sar Ben Derby20.8%15.9%+4.9
Baker Hayfield10.6%11.4%-0.7
Moneymilitia8.2%8.8%-0.7
Summer Help3.4%8.8%-5.4
Rockin His Sox Off2.8%3.8%-1.0
Riding Double1.6%5.0%-3.3
🌧️ Off-track: 124536
🎯 Longshots: 14236758
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Mister Omaha (2/1) 37% · fair 3-2
Place:9Breakable Code (9/2) 19% · fair 9-2
Show:7Classy Empire (10/1) 10% · fair 9-1
Other contenders:8Cajun Stoops (8/1) 8% · fair 23-2 underlay -30%, 6Connors Outlaw (6/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -51%, 5Royalamerican (8/1) 7% · fair 25-2 underlay -37%
Rest of field:1Nucleus (4/1) 6% · fair 15-1 underlay -73%, 4Missin Hollywood (20/1) 3% · fair 69-2 underlay -42%, 2I Am What I Am (15/1) 2% · fair 40-1 underlay -63%
Race 8 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Mister Omaha — 36.7% win probability, morning line 2/1Mister Omaha36.7% ◀Breakable Code — 18.9% win probability, morning line 4.5/1Breakable Code18.9%Classy Empire — 10.0% win probability, morning line 10/1Classy Empire10.0%Cajun Stoops — 8.1% win probability, morning line 8/1Cajun Stoops8.1%Connors Outlaw — 7.5% win probability, morning line 6/1Connors Outlaw7.5%Royalamerican — 7.3% win probability, morning line 8/1Royalamerican7.3%Nucleus — 6.3% win probability, morning line 4/1Nucleus6.3%Missin Hollywood — 2.8% win probability, morning line 20/1Missin Hollywood2.8%I Am What I Am — 2.4% win probability, morning line 15/1I Am What I Am2.4%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Mister Omaha36.7%2/1
Breakable Code18.9%4.5/1
Classy Empire10.0%10/1
Cajun Stoops8.1%8/1
Connors Outlaw7.5%6/1
Royalamerican7.3%8/1
Nucleus6.3%4/1
Missin Hollywood2.8%20/1
I Am What I Am2.4%15/1
Race 8 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherMister Omaha: model 36.7% vs market 26.0% (+10.7 points)Mister Omaha+10.7Breakable Code: model 18.9% vs market 14.2% (+4.7 points)Breakable Code+4.7Classy Empire: model 10.0% vs market 7.1% (+3.0 points)Classy Empire+3.0Cajun Stoops: model 8.1% vs market 8.7% (-0.6 points)Cajun Stoops-0.6Connors Outlaw: model 7.5% vs market 11.1% (-3.7 points)Connors Outlaw-3.7Royalamerican: model 7.3% vs market 8.7% (-1.4 points)Royalamerican-1.4Nucleus: model 6.3% vs market 15.6% (-9.3 points)Nucleus-9.3Missin Hollywood: model 2.8% vs market 3.7% (-0.9 points)Missin Hollywood-0.9I Am What I Am: model 2.4% vs market 4.9% (-2.4 points)I Am What I Am-2.4

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Mister Omaha36.7%26.0%+10.7
Breakable Code18.9%14.2%+4.7
Classy Empire10.0%7.1%+3.0
Cajun Stoops8.1%8.7%-0.6
Connors Outlaw7.5%11.1%-3.7
Royalamerican7.3%8.7%-1.4
Nucleus6.3%15.6%-9.3
Missin Hollywood2.8%3.7%-0.9
I Am What I Am2.4%4.9%-2.4
🌧️ Off-track: 391685
🎯 Longshots: 358791246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #7, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:2Drain The Shot (5/2) 33% · fair 2-1
Place:11Mister Okie (4/1) 17% · fair 5-1
Show:3Okie Dokie M (6/1) 12% · fair 15-2
Other contenders:8By My Boss (5/1) 11% · fair 17-2 underlay -40%, 4Twice Last Year (12/1) 8% · fair 11-1, 5Gospel Russell (8/1) 5% · fair 39-2 underlay -59%, 9Dan Golden (15/1) 4% · fair 24-1 underlay -37%
Rest of field:1Tizcolonelforce (15/1) 3% · fair 29-1 underlay -49%, 10Chase's Mojo (15/1) 3% · fair 33-1 underlay -55%, 7Breakin Passed (20/1) 2% · fair 79-2 underlay -49%, 6Pennington (15/1) 2% · fair 43-1 underlay -65%
Race 9 — chance of winning

Every runner, as a calibrated probability. The bars add up to 100%, so they read as real odds.

Drain The Shot — 32.6% win probability, morning line 2.5/1Drain The Shot32.6% ◀Mister Okie — 16.6% win probability, morning line 4/1Mister Okie16.6%Okie Dokie M — 11.9% win probability, morning line 6/1Okie Dokie M11.9%By My Boss — 10.7% win probability, morning line 5/1By My Boss10.7%Twice Last Year — 8.4% win probability, morning line 12/1Twice Last Year8.4%Gospel Russell — 4.8% win probability, morning line 8/1Gospel Russell4.8%Dan Golden — 4.0% win probability, morning line 15/1Dan Golden4.0%Tizcolonelforce — 3.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Tizcolonelforce3.3%Chase'S Mojo — 2.9% win probability, morning line 15/1Chase'S Mojo2.9%Breakin Passed — 2.5% win probability, morning line 20/1Breakin Passed2.5%Pennington — 2.3% win probability, morning line 15/1Pennington2.3%

◀ marks the published selection.

Show the numbers
HorseWin probabilityMorning line
Drain The Shot32.6%2.5/1
Mister Okie16.6%4/1
Okie Dokie M11.9%6/1
By My Boss10.7%5/1
Twice Last Year8.4%12/1
Gospel Russell4.8%8/1
Dan Golden4.0%15/1
Tizcolonelforce3.3%15/1
Chase'S Mojo2.9%15/1
Breakin Passed2.5%20/1
Pennington2.3%15/1
Race 9 — where we disagree with the market

Our probability minus the morning line's, both put on the same 100% scale.

we rate it above the market (overlay)the market rates it above us (underlay)
model rates it higher →← market rates it higherDrain The Shot: model 32.6% vs market 22.3% (+10.3 points)Drain The Shot+10.3Mister Okie: model 16.6% vs market 15.6% (+1.0 points)Mister Okie+1.0Okie Dokie M: model 11.9% vs market 11.2% (+0.7 points)Okie Dokie M+0.7By My Boss: model 10.7% vs market 13.0% (-2.3 points)By My Boss-2.3Twice Last Year: model 8.4% vs market 6.0% (+2.4 points)Twice Last Year+2.4Gospel Russell: model 4.8% vs market 8.7% (-3.8 points)Gospel Russell-3.8Dan Golden: model 4.0% vs market 4.9% (-0.9 points)Dan Golden-0.9Tizcolonelforce: model 3.3% vs market 4.9% (-1.6 points)Tizcolonelforce-1.6Chase'S Mojo: model 2.9% vs market 4.9% (-1.9 points)Chase'S Mojo-1.9Breakin Passed: model 2.5% vs market 3.7% (-1.3 points)Breakin Passed-1.3Pennington: model 2.3% vs market 4.9% (-2.6 points)Pennington-2.6

The morning line is priced to more than 100%; removing that is what stops every horse looking short.

Show the numbers
HorseModelMarketDifference
Drain The Shot32.6%22.3%+10.3
Mister Okie16.6%15.6%+1.0
Okie Dokie M11.9%11.2%+0.7
By My Boss10.7%13.0%-2.3
Twice Last Year8.4%6.0%+2.4
Gospel Russell4.8%8.7%-3.8
Dan Golden4.0%4.9%-0.9
Tizcolonelforce3.3%4.9%-1.6
Chase'S Mojo2.9%4.9%-1.9
Breakin Passed2.5%3.7%-1.3
Pennington2.3%4.9%-2.6
🌧️ Off-track: 2118354
🎯 Longshots: 2114835910617
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #3, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
AI Picks – Algo 1 (Weighted Rating)ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:6Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:9American Candy (4/1)
Show:1Mi Bella Reina (10/1)
Other contenders:4Volden (9/2), 3Sunday Frost (10/1), 7Maricamp Road (5/1)
Rest of field:2Saver's Joy (8/1), 5Amelia's Edge (15/1), 10Dana Might (20/1), 8Ava J (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 694713
🎯 Longshots: 69413725108
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #9, #1, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:1Lady Admiral (6/1) no strong opinion
This rating tops the card at a price, which is the one case where it has not beaten the market. Treat it as a name to look at, not a selection.
Place:2Balladry (9/2)
Show:5Cloud Number Nine (7/2)
Other contenders:4Rainbow Smiles (5/2), 6Ms. Hillary (10/1), 3My Julia (5/1)
Rest of field:8Miss You No More (8/1), 7She's A Bond Too (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 145238
🎯 Longshots: 58267431
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:7Attack Now (2/1)
Place:3Deposit Insurance (4/1)
Show:1Board Of Directors (3/1)
Other contenders:2Bravitas (6/1), 5Fitzgerald (9/2)
Rest of field:6Toms Prospector (10/1), 4Boundless Optimist (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 713526
🎯 Longshots: 7263415
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #3, #1, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $33,000
Win:1Fluid Situation (3/1)
Place:7Bad Beat Brian (5/2)
Show:2Carlea's Dream (8/1)
Other contenders:4Moral Dilemma (9/2), 6Blue Light (8/1), 5Marcus Gift (12/1)
Rest of field:3Stayed In For Half (4/1), 8Under Oath (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174326
🎯 Longshots: 12756843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:1Steel Link (4/1)
Place:6John (8/1)
Show:5Laws Of Man (3/1)
Other contenders:9Golden Rebal (5/1), 8Third Street (10/1), 4Fastened (6/1)
Rest of field:2Bobby Brinkley (15/1), 10Ooey Gooey Chewy (8/1), 3Beau Day (15/1), 7Bolt Supremacy (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 159648
🎯 Longshots: 62185943107
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #6, #5, #9  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:2More Coffee (3/1)
Place:9Reactionary (4/1)
Show:3Clearly Clover (5/1)
Other contenders:10Irish Lass (10/1), 4Vivis In Front (6/1), 11Susan Yvonne (12/1), 5Melly's Birkin (15/1)
Rest of field:7Fish And Whistle (10/1), 8Crime Scene (20/1), 12Love Me Some Candy (20/1), 6Speaker Baby (20/1), 1Grayrock Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2934107
🎯 Longshots: 211951210843761
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #3, #10  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:1Helicity (2/1)
Place:2Vintage Cowboy (3/1)
Show:4Ak Sar Ben Derby (4/1)
Other contenders:3Moneymilitia (8/1), 5Baker Hayfield (6/1), 6Summer Help (8/1)
Rest of field:7Rockin His Sox Off (20/1), 8Riding Double (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124536
🎯 Longshots: 14236758
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Mister Omaha (2/1)
Place:9Breakable Code (9/2)
Show:5Royalamerican (8/1)
Other contenders:1Nucleus (4/1), 6Connors Outlaw (6/1), 7Classy Empire (10/1)
Rest of field:8Cajun Stoops (8/1), 4Missin Hollywood (20/1), 2I Am What I Am (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 319658
🎯 Longshots: 358791246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #5, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:2Drain The Shot (5/2)
Place:11Mister Okie (4/1)
Show:3Okie Dokie M (6/1)
Other contenders:4Twice Last Year (12/1), 8By My Boss (5/1), 9Dan Golden (15/1), 5Gospel Russell (8/1)
Rest of field:10Chase's Mojo (15/1), 7Breakin Passed (20/1), 1Tizcolonelforce (15/1), 6Pennington (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2118354
🎯 Longshots: 2114835910617
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 20, FPS: 15, FPS Midpoint: 10, FPS Late: 10, Pace Last 3: 10, Pace Last Race: 15, Early Pace: 10, Mid Pace: 10, Late Pace: 20, Post Position: 10, PPPP Rating: 15, Average Finish: 10, Days Since Last Race: 10, Jockey: 14, Trainer: 14, Track Bias: 15, Morning Line: 14, Pedigree: 51, Works: 5, Weight: 15, Medications: 0, Weather: 10, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 10, Last Three Races: 15, All Races: 10, Best Race: 5, Proprietary AI: 5,
AI Exotics – Exacta & Trifecta Structuresⓘ

Ticket structures, not profit claims. On 8,600 frozen races the straight exacta ordered by our Stretch model ran close to breakeven (−0.9%) where the published Win/Place order lost about 19%; trifectas have not shown a positive return in any segment we have measured. Check the tote before you play.

Race 1AI Exacta: #6 over #9 ($1 straight; box #6-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #6 over #1, #4, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 2AI Exacta: #5 over #2 ($1 straight; box #5-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #5 over #2, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 3AI Exacta: #7 over #2 ($1 straight; box #7-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #7 over #1, #3, #2 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 4AI Exacta: #1 over #7 ($1 straight; box #1-#7 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #7, #2, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 5AI Exacta: #1 over #6 ($1 straight; box #1-#6 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #5, #6, #8 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 6AI Exacta: #2 over #9 ($1 straight; box #2-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #3, #9, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 7AI Exacta: #1 over #2 ($1 straight; box #1-#2 for cover)
Trifecta: #1 over #4, #2, #3 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 8AI Exacta: #3 over #9 ($1 straight; box #3-#9 for cover)
Trifecta: #3 over #9, #1, #5 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Race 9AI Exacta: #2 over #11 ($1 straight; box #2-#11 for cover)
Trifecta: #2 over #11, #3, #4 (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
Kelly Edge Playsⓘ
Kelly Edge Plays   (longshots clearing the 10% publishing edge — calibrator: win-prob (tiered/multidim/flat calibrator ladder))    Morning-line reliability: +0.34 (ML-rank vs finish; ~0.38 typical — higher = oddsmaker sorts the field better; edges below are scaled by it)    Weekend sizing: ×0.80 (edge & stake trimmed — weekend longshots win less than their edge implies; the longshot list itself is unchanged)    Price-band calibration: P(win), edge and stake are reduced for horses at 12-to-1 and longer (×0.96 from 12-to-1 up to 20-to-1, ×0.60 at 20-to-1 and longer) because the model has been measured to overstate win chances at those prices; the list of horses is unchanged, and a 20-to-1 horse may now show a negative edge and no stake
RaceHorseMLLiveP(win)Edge¼ KellyBet on $
bankroll
611Susan Yvonne12/1—11.7%+38.0%0.79%$0.79
11Mi Bella Reina10/1—11.2%+16.5%0.41%$0.41
52Bobby Brinkley15/1—6.7%+5.7%0.10%$0.10
TOTAL across 3 plays:1.3%$1.30
Edge = P(win) × decimal odds − 1. Only longshots clearing a 10% edge are shown (the same bar used to flag a longshot pick). Each ¼ Kelly stake is capped at 5% of bankroll, and the whole column is scaled so the TOTAL never exceeds your bankroll (simultaneous quarter-Kelly bets otherwise sum to more than 100%). Pick your bankroll from the dropdown and every suggested bet — and the total — updates accordingly.
💡 Tote-board tip: the Live column updates automatically. Our longshots that take money at the track (live odds at or below the morning line) win about 4× as often as the ones drifting up in price — 10.2% vs 2.6% in our settled results, and 15.1% when heavily bet. Play these selections only when the board shows them holding or shortening from the morning line.
Experimental Weight Set 2ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:6Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:4Volden (9/2)
Show:9American Candy (4/1)
Other contenders:7Maricamp Road (5/1), 1Mi Bella Reina (10/1), 3Sunday Frost (10/1)
Rest of field:2Saver's Joy (8/1), 5Amelia's Edge (15/1), 8Ava J (20/1), 10Dana Might (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 694713
🎯 Longshots: 69413725108
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #4, #9, #7  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:2Balladry (9/2)
Place:8Miss You No More (8/1)
Show:1Lady Admiral (6/1)
Other contenders:6Ms. Hillary (10/1), 5Cloud Number Nine (7/2), 3My Julia (5/1)
Rest of field:7She's A Bond Too (12/1), 4Rainbow Smiles (5/2)
🌧️ Off-track: 248513
🎯 Longshots: 58267431
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #8, #1, #6  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:7Attack Now (2/1)
Place:6Toms Prospector (10/1)
Show:2Bravitas (6/1)
Other contenders:3Deposit Insurance (4/1), 1Board Of Directors (3/1)
Rest of field:5Fitzgerald (9/2), 4Boundless Optimist (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 713256
🎯 Longshots: 7263415
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #6, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $33,000
Win:1Fluid Situation (3/1)
Place:7Bad Beat Brian (5/2)
Show:6Blue Light (8/1)
Other contenders:4Moral Dilemma (9/2), 2Carlea's Dream (8/1), 3Stayed In For Half (4/1)
Rest of field:5Marcus Gift (12/1), 8Under Oath (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 714362
🎯 Longshots: 12756843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #6, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:1Steel Link (4/1)
Place:2Bobby Brinkley (15/1)
Show:5Laws Of Man (3/1)
Other contenders:4Fastened (6/1), 9Golden Rebal (5/1), 6John (8/1)
Rest of field:8Third Street (10/1), 3Beau Day (15/1), 10Ooey Gooey Chewy (8/1), 7Bolt Supremacy (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 1594610
🎯 Longshots: 62185943107
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #2, #5, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:2More Coffee (3/1)
Place:9Reactionary (4/1)
Show:11Susan Yvonne (12/1)
Other contenders:3Clearly Clover (5/1), 4Vivis In Front (6/1), 5Melly's Birkin (15/1), 10Irish Lass (10/1)
Rest of field:12Love Me Some Candy (20/1), 8Crime Scene (20/1), 6Speaker Baby (20/1), 7Fish And Whistle (10/1), 1Grayrock Lady (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 29341110
🎯 Longshots: 211951210843761
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #9, #11, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:2Vintage Cowboy (3/1)
Place:1Helicity (2/1)
Show:4Ak Sar Ben Derby (4/1)
Other contenders:5Baker Hayfield (6/1), 3Moneymilitia (8/1), 6Summer Help (8/1)
Rest of field:7Rockin His Sox Off (20/1), 8Riding Double (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124536
🎯 Longshots: 14236758
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #1, #4, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Mister Omaha (2/1)
Place:9Breakable Code (9/2)
Show:6Connors Outlaw (6/1)
Other contenders:1Nucleus (4/1), 5Royalamerican (8/1), 8Cajun Stoops (8/1)
Rest of field:7Classy Empire (10/1), 4Missin Hollywood (20/1), 2I Am What I Am (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 319658
🎯 Longshots: 358791246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #6, #1  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:2Drain The Shot (5/2)
Place:11Mister Okie (4/1)
Show:8By My Boss (5/1)
Other contenders:3Okie Dokie M (6/1), 4Twice Last Year (12/1), 5Gospel Russell (8/1), 10Chase's Mojo (15/1)
Rest of field:9Dan Golden (15/1), 6Pennington (15/1), 7Breakin Passed (20/1), 1Tizcolonelforce (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2118354
🎯 Longshots: 2114835910617
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #8, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 1, FPS: 1, FPS Midpoint: 25, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 1, Pace Last Race: 1, Early Pace: 45, Mid Pace: 46, Late Pace: 14, Post Position: 1, PPPP Rating: 1, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 1, Jockey: 1, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 21, Morning Line: 1, Pedigree: 1, Works: 1, Weight: 57, Medications: 0, Weather: 4, Race Trouble: 42, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 27, All Races: 1, Best Race: 1, Proprietary AI: 1,
Experimental Weight Set 3ⓘ
 
Race 1  7 1/2 Furlongs · Turf · Maiden Sp Wt · Purse $38,000
Win:6Lead By Example (5/2)
Place:1Mi Bella Reina (10/1)
Show:4Volden (9/2)
Other contenders:3Sunday Frost (10/1), 9American Candy (4/1), 2Saver's Joy (8/1)
Rest of field:7Maricamp Road (5/1), 5Amelia's Edge (15/1), 10Dana Might (20/1), 8Ava J (20/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 649712
🎯 Longshots: 69413725108
🎫 Trifecta play: #6 over #1, #4, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 2  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:5Cloud Number Nine (7/2)
Place:2Balladry (9/2)
Show:3My Julia (5/1)
Other contenders:4Rainbow Smiles (5/2), 1Lady Admiral (6/1), 6Ms. Hillary (10/1)
Rest of field:8Miss You No More (8/1), 7She's A Bond Too (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 542318
🎯 Longshots: 58267431
🎫 Trifecta play: #5 over #2, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 3  1-70 Miles · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $11,500
Win:7Attack Now (2/1)
Place:1Board Of Directors (3/1)
Show:3Deposit Insurance (4/1)
Other contenders:2Bravitas (6/1), 5Fitzgerald (9/2)
Rest of field:6Toms Prospector (10/1), 4Boundless Optimist (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 713526
🎯 Longshots: 7263415
🎫 Trifecta play: #7 over #1, #3, #2  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 4  5 Furlongs · Turf · Claiming · Purse $33,000
Win:1Fluid Situation (3/1)
Place:7Bad Beat Brian (5/2)
Show:2Carlea's Dream (8/1)
Other contenders:4Moral Dilemma (9/2), 6Blue Light (8/1), 5Marcus Gift (12/1)
Rest of field:8Under Oath (15/1), 3Stayed In For Half (4/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 174236
🎯 Longshots: 12756843
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #7, #2, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 5  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Claiming · Purse $12,500
Win:1Steel Link (4/1)
Place:5Laws Of Man (3/1)
Show:6John (8/1)
Other contenders:8Third Street (10/1), 9Golden Rebal (5/1), 4Fastened (6/1)
Rest of field:2Bobby Brinkley (15/1), 3Beau Day (15/1), 10Ooey Gooey Chewy (8/1), 7Bolt Supremacy (12/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 159468
🎯 Longshots: 62185943107
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #5, #6, #8  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 6  5 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Maiden Claiming · Purse $15,000
Win:2More Coffee (3/1)
Place:3Clearly Clover (5/1)
Show:9Reactionary (4/1)
Other contenders:4Vivis In Front (6/1), 11Susan Yvonne (12/1), 10Irish Lass (10/1), 5Melly's Birkin (15/1)
Rest of field:12Love Me Some Candy (20/1), 8Crime Scene (20/1), 6Speaker Baby (20/1), 1Grayrock Lady (20/1), 7Fish And Whistle (10/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 29341011
🎯 Longshots: 211951210843761
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #3, #9, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 7  1 Miles · Turf · Allowance · Purse $40,000
Win:1Helicity (2/1)
Place:4Ak Sar Ben Derby (4/1)
Show:2Vintage Cowboy (3/1)
Other contenders:3Moneymilitia (8/1), 5Baker Hayfield (6/1), 6Summer Help (8/1)
Rest of field:7Rockin His Sox Off (20/1), 8Riding Double (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 124536
🎯 Longshots: 14236758
🎫 Trifecta play: #1 over #4, #2, #3  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 8  6 1/2 Furlongs · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:3Mister Omaha (2/1)
Place:9Breakable Code (9/2)
Show:1Nucleus (4/1)
Other contenders:5Royalamerican (8/1), 6Connors Outlaw (6/1), 7Classy Empire (10/1)
Rest of field:8Cajun Stoops (8/1), 4Missin Hollywood (20/1), 2I Am What I Am (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 319658
🎯 Longshots: 358791246
🎫 Trifecta play: #3 over #9, #1, #5  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
Race 9  1 Miles · Dirt · Nongraded Stake · Purse $50,000
Win:2Drain The Shot (5/2)
Place:11Mister Okie (4/1)
Show:3Okie Dokie M (6/1)
Other contenders:4Twice Last Year (12/1), 8By My Boss (5/1), 5Gospel Russell (8/1), 9Dan Golden (15/1)
Rest of field:10Chase's Mojo (15/1), 1Tizcolonelforce (15/1), 7Breakin Passed (20/1), 6Pennington (15/1)
🌧️ Off-track: 2118354
🎯 Longshots: 2114835910617
🎫 Trifecta play: #2 over #11, #3, #4  (key win / box 2nd-3rd — 6 combos)  · low value — consider passing
 
AI Weight Settingsⓘ
Speed: 51, FPS: 4, FPS Midpoint: 50, FPS Late: 1, Pace Last 3: 26, Pace Last Race: 51, Early Pace: 50, Mid Pace: 50, Late Pace: 50, Post Position: 76, PPPP Rating: 56, Average Finish: 1, Days Since Last Race: 26, Jockey: 6, Trainer: 1, Track Bias: 56, Morning Line: 26, Pedigree: 55, Works: 26, Weight: 50, Medications: 0, Weather: 50, Race Trouble: 50, Last Race: 1, Last Three Races: 81, All Races: 70, Best Race: 53, Proprietary AI: 1,
AI Multi-Race Tickets - Pick 3 / Pick 4ⓘ

Built from the AI Win Probability model: each leg takes horses in probability order until it covers about 60% of the race (max three). The hit chance is the model's own estimate; multi-race tickets have no backtest yet, so use these as construction help, not a system. Confirm the sequence is offered and the base bet at your track.

Pick 3 R1-3R1: #6,#1 (62%) / R2: #5,#2,#4 (56%) / R3: #7,#2,#3 (69%)
$18 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 24%
Pick 3 R2-4R2: #5,#2,#4 (56%) / R3: #7,#2,#3 (69%) / R4: #1,#7,#6 (56%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 22%
Pick 3 R6-8R6: #2,#9,#3 (56%) / R7: #1,#2,#4 (73%) / R8: #3,#9,#7 (66%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 27%
Pick 3 R7-9R7: #1,#2,#4 (73%) / R8: #3,#9,#7 (66%) / R9: #2,#11,#3 (61%)
$27 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 29%
Pick 4 R1-4R1: #6,#1 (62%) / R2: #5,#2,#4 (56%) / R3: #7,#2,#3 (69%) / R4: #1,#7,#6 (56%)
$54 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 13%
Pick 4 R6-9R6: #2,#9,#3 (56%) / R7: #1,#2,#4 (73%) / R8: #3,#9,#7 (66%) / R9: #2,#11,#3 (61%)
$81 at a $1 base · est. hit chance 16%
Index - Horses Running In This Cardⓘ
AK SAR BEN DERBYAMELIA'S EDGEAMERICAN CANDYATTACK NOWAVA J
BAKER HAYFIELDBALLADRYBEAU DAYBLUE LIGHTBOARD OF DIRECTORS
BOLT SUPREMACYBOUNDLESS OPTIMISTBRAVITASBREAKABLE CODEBREAKIN PASSED
CAJUN STOOPSCARLEA'S DREAMCHASE'S MOJOCLASSY EMPIRECLEARLY CLOVER
CONNORS OUTLAWCRIME SCENEDAN GOLDENDANA MIGHTDEPOSIT INSURANCE
FASTENEDFISH AND WHISTLEFITZGERALDFLUID SITUATIONGOLDEN REBAL
GRAYROCK LADYHELICITYI AM WHAT I AMIRISH LASSJOHN
LAWS OF MANLEAD BY EXAMPLELOVE ME SOME CANDYMARCUS GIFTMARICAMP ROAD
MI BELLA REINAMISS YOU NO MOREMISSIN HOLLYWOODMISTER OKIEMISTER OMAHA
MORAL DILEMMAMORE COFFEEMS. HILLARYMY JULIANUCLEUS
OOEY GOOEY CHEWYPENNINGTONRAINBOW SMILESREACTIONARYRIDING DOUBLE
ROYALAMERICANSAVER'S JOYSHE'S A BOND TOOSPEAKER BABYSTAYED IN FOR HALF
SUMMER HELPSUNDAY FROSTSUSAN YVONNETHIRD STREETTIZCOLONELFORCE
TWICE LAST YEARUNDER OATHVINTAGE COWBOYVIVIS IN FRONTVOLDEN

 


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