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Thistledown Racetrack – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the September 23, 2026 card

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The Pick Pony Handicapper's Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

 

Do our stated chances come true?

Every horse our AI Win Probability model rated, grouped by the chance we gave it, against how often that group actually won.

What we saidWhat happened
0%16%32%47%63%3%7%13%18%26%38%What we said — 3.4%What we said — 7.4%What we said — 12.5%What we said — 18.0%What we said — 25.6%What we said — 38.3%What we saidWhat happened — 2.5%What happened — 7.0%What happened — 13.6%What happened — 21.7%What happened — 31.6%What happened — 51.1%What happened

Where the two lines meet, the published percentage was exactly right.

Show the numbers
WeekWhat we saidWhat happened
3%3.4%2.5%
7%7.4%7.0%
13%12.5%13.6%
18%18.0%21.7%
26%25.6%31.6%
38%38.3%51.1%

THISTLEDOWN RACETRACK — RACE DAY ANALYSIS

Tuesday, September 23, 2026

Race Day Overview

Thistledown Racetrack in North Randall, Ohio opens its Tuesday afternoon card with an eight-race program anchored by claiming and allowance company across distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile and a tenth on the main dirt track. The card is heavy on Claiming 5000 and Claiming 16000 conditions, offering a range of competitive spots for horses seeking to find their proper company. The card opens at 12:50 PM Eastern with a $20,800 Claiming 16000 sprint and closes at 4:20 PM with a $12,200 Claiming 5000 contest on the Marathon side of the track.

The racing news coming out of Monday's card at Mountaineer Park serves as a reminder of the chaos that can erupt on wet, dreary autumn evenings in the Ohio Valley region. That incident, which saw a horse gallop the wrong way mid-race during the sixth race and trigger a collection of held tickets and official inquiries, underscores how unpredictable late-September racing in this part of the country can be. Thistledown's Tuesday afternoon card takes place under different ownership and management, but the proximity of both facilities and the shared horsemen who operate between them means the incident is on the minds of riders and trainers who were present Monday night.

There is no graded stakes action on today's card, but the two-turn routes in Races 6 and 7 — both going 1760 feet — offer the deepest class questions and the most intriguing handicapping puzzles on the card. The allowance in Race 2 at 1320 feet is the highest-quality event on the program, with a purse of $29,700, and will draw significant attention from bettors looking for a logical favorite to anchor exotics.

Weather and Track Conditions

September in the Cleveland area brings variable weather, and late September typically ushers in cooler temperatures with increased precipitation probability. The track at Thistledown has seen significant activity through the summer meet, and surface condition will play a meaningful role in how today's races unfold. Following the wet weather that was reported Monday evening at Mountaineer, a regional weather system moving through the Ohio Valley has left lingering moisture in the area. Thistledown's main track may carry a wet-fast or good rating heading into the afternoon card, with conditions potentially tightening as post time approaches depending on overnight drainage.

The track surface at Thistledown is a one-mile oval with a dirt main track, and the strip has played fairly honest through the fall meet without extreme rail bias in either direction. However, in moist conditions, the inside path at Thistledown has historically offered a slight advantage in routes, while speed horses in sprints tend to benefit when the track carries moisture due to the firming of the kickback surface through the upper stretch. Horses shipping in from Mountaineer or Belterra should be comfortable with the footing, as the regional circuits share similar surface characteristics.

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Thistledown's main track at 1320 feet (six furlongs) is a surface that rewards early speed, especially from inside and middle posts. In sprint races, the rail and posts two through four have shown a consistent advantage at this distance during the fall meet, with pace-pressers and front-runners holding up well in the stretch when the track plays fast or good. Horses drawn outside in sprints — posts six through eight — face more ground to make up in the first turn and typically require a speed-compromising trip unless they fire immediately and cross over early.

At the route distances of 1760 feet (one mile and a tenth), Thistledown's two-turn configuration tends to favor horses with a forward tactical position. The first turn comes quickly after the start, and outside post positions in routes require a rider with strong gate and positioning instincts to avoid getting buried wide. The rail in today's conditions may offer an advantage in the two-turn events, and horses breaking from posts one through three in Races 6 and 7 deserve extra credit.

At 1210 feet (six furlongs on the turf-equivalent distance on dirt), which applies to Race 1, the inside posts offer clean trip advantages in a field of eight.

RACE 1 — Post (12:50)/11:50/10:50/9:50 — 1210f | D | C | Clm 16000n2l | BUN | Purse $20,800

This opener goes six furlongs on the main dirt track for non-winners of two lifetime, capped at a $16,000 claiming price. With eight runners and a modest purse, this is a competitive spot for horses in the early stages of their careers or those who have managed just a single lifetime win. The field is evenly distributed in terms of morning line odds, with two co-favorites at 4-1 and a clear favorite at 2-1 in Money Magic (POST 6).

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario here should be moderate to hot. Dublin Time (POST 1) from Robert Gorham's barn figures to be aggressive early from the inside rail, and Big Daddy Hank (POST 5) with Elijah Greenidge up has shown gate speed in his lines. Money Magic (POST 6) with Rocco Bowen will likely stalk or press from mid-pack. If Dublin Time (POST 1) gets uncontested through the opening quarter, the pace could collapse for closers. However, if Big Daddy Hank (POST 5) challenges early, the pace will be honest enough to set up a stalker or closer. The race shape projects as a contested front with a potential stalker opportunity from the middle posts.

Key Contenders

Money Magic (POST 6) opens as the morning line favorite at 2-1 under trainer Edward Fernandez and jockey Rocco Bowen. In a Claiming 16000 non-winners of two field, a horse showing consistent speed figures with a legitimate shot at a second win stands out as the class of a modest group. Bowen is a capable hand in the Thistledown colony and gives this horse a confident pilot. The outside draw at post six is not ideal for a six-furlong dirt sprint, but Bowen has the experience to position this horse efficiently through the first turn. Fernandez has quietly maintained a respectable strike rate at this level.

Big Daddy Hank (POST 5) offers value at 4-1 with trainer Christian Flores sending out what figures to be a forward-going type. Elijah Greenidge is aboard and has the ability to get position early. A middle post at this distance is ideal, and the horse is eligible to improve off recent form in the right spot. Handicappers have pointed to this runner as a logical price play to win or be involved in exotics.

Secondary Choices

Dublin Time (POST 1) at 4-1 from Robert Gorham gets the rail and figures to set or press the early fractions. If the pace collapses and the track plays to early speed, the rail could be advantageous. Brandon Tapara is a journeyman rider with track knowledge. The concern here is getting hung on the lead against legitimate pressure from Big Daddy Hank (POST 5).

Worthy Of It All (POST 8) at 5-1 for trainer Mike Rone with Erik Barbaran is a horse to consider at a price. Coming from the outside post, the horse will need a wide trip or a ground-saving ride. Barbaran has been active on the Thistledown circuit and is capable of a big effort from an outside gate if the pace sets up honest.

Longshots

Camp Perry (POST 3) at 6-1 for Jeff Radosevich with Jose Bracho aboard is a middling price that could hit the board if pace devolves into a speed duel. Triangulo Rojo (POST 7) at 6-1 under trainer Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Alejandro Gomez gets an outside draw that complicates matters, but the price is fair for a horse with upside. Just A Rockstar (POST 2) at 12-1 for Kristina Tumblin with Chelsey Keiser is a long price that implies limited recent form. Bold Windsor (POST 4) at 12-1 for Jacinto Lopez with German Terraza is a deep price with minimal win expectation at these odds.

Selections

Win: Money Magic (POST 6) Place: Big Daddy Hank (POST 5) Show: Worthy Of It All (POST 8)

Betting Strategy: Use Money Magic (POST 6) as the single win play at 2-1. In exotics, structure exactas as 6 over 5 and 5 over 6, and include Worthy Of It All (POST 8) on top and underneath in trifecta coverage. The pace scenario is competitive enough to keep the chalk honest, making a small win bet on Big Daddy Hank (POST 5) at 4-1 worth consideration.

RACE 2 — Post (1:20)/12:20/11:20/10:20 — 1320f | D | A | Alw 29700n3l | BUN | Purse $29,700

The allowance condition for non-winners of three lifetime is the feature quality event of the day at Thistledown, with a $29,700 purse going six furlongs on the main track. Six runners make this a tightly contested affair with two co-favorites at 2-1 — Metaphor (POST 3) and Call Shadd (POST 4) — creating an interesting betting dynamic.

Pace Analysis

With two co-favorites sharing the 2-1 line and Saving Heart (POST 1) on the inside for trainer Kim Puhl, the pace picture here is competitive. Saving Heart (POST 1) from the rail figures to press or set fractions, and with L.A. Gonzalez aboard, Puhl runs a sharp operation at Thistledown. Blake James (POST 6) at 4-1 under Shane Meyers with Alexander Chavez could also factor early. Metaphor (POST 3) and Call Shadd (POST 4) are likely to settle in stalking positions with their riders saving ground through the first turn from adjacent posts. The race should generate honest fractions, which plays into the hands of the class horses tracking the speed.

Key Contenders

Metaphor (POST 3) at 2-1 for trainer Anthony Rini and jockey R. Feliciano shapes up as a legitimate contender in this spot. Rini is a competent conditioner at this level, and Feliciano brings proven ability. Breaking from post three, Metaphor (POST 3) gets a clean trip out of the gate and should find a comfortable stalking spot. Handicappers have noted this horse's consistent form at the allowance level as a primary reason for the short price.

Call Shadd (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Richard Zielinski with Victor Fernandez is the co-favorite sharing the exact same morning line. Post four in a six-runner field is a middle-of-the-pack draw that offers flexibility. Zielinski has placed horses well at Thistledown in the past, and Call Shadd (POST 4) fits the non-winners of three condition based on form that suggests steady progression. If either favorite runs to its lines, this shapes up as a two-horse battle in the lane.

Secondary Choices

Saving Heart (POST 1) at 4-1 for Kim Puhl with Gonzalez gets the favored inside post and the backing of a trainer who runs a multi-horse barn at the top of the standings at Thistledown. Puhl's numbers in sprint races at this oval are among the best in the colony. Saving Heart (POST 1) is a legitimate each-way play if the pace sets up for a speed or pressing type to hold.

Blake James (POST 6) at 4-1 for Shane Meyers with Chavez is an interesting price from the outside post. Meyers is an active trainer at the meet and Chavez has been riding well. The outside gate is problematic in a six-runner sprint, but the price compensates. A forward trip from Blake James (POST 6) could put this runner into contention at a number that creates overlay value in exotics.

Longshots

Whiskey Point (POST 5) at 6-1 for Puhl and Jefferson Skerrett is a second Puhl entry that gives the barn a two-pronged attack. Puhl running two horses in the same race creates interesting betting dynamics. Whiskey Point (POST 5) at the longer price could represent stable value if the trainer's preference is not the morning-line-favored Saving Heart (POST 1). Drury Lane (POST 2) at 10-1 for Radosevich with Bracho is a deep price that is difficult to use in exactas without a significant return, but small trifecta inclusion is reasonable.

Selections

Win: Call Shadd (POST 4) Place: Metaphor (POST 3) Show: Saving Heart (POST 1)

Betting Strategy: With two co-favorites sharing 2-1, the exacta box of Call Shadd (POST 4) and Metaphor (POST 3) returns modest value but is the most logical play. Upgrade Saving Heart (POST 1) in trifectas as the pace-setting inside draw for trainer Puhl. If you want price, Whiskey Point (POST 5) at 6-1 gives you another Puhl horse with legitimate win equity — include both in trifecta bottom positions.

RACE 3 — Post (1:50)/12:50/11:50/10:50 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000n1y | BUN | Purse $12,200

A six-furlong sprint for $5,000 claimers who have not won in the past year. The field of six features two co-favorites at 2-1 — Erlan (POST 2) and Don't Stop (POST 6) — setting up a speed-versus-closer dynamic in a relatively short field.

Pace Analysis

This is a low-level claiming sprint where pace consistency is often unreliable. Gamboling Ghost (POST 1) at 4-1 for Jason DaCosta with Jerome Innis could press from the rail. Erlan (POST 2) for Shane Meyers with Chavez figures to be involved early, and Don't Stop (POST 6) at 2-1 for James Jackson with Jason Simpson rounds out the two-horse favorite picture from the outside. The pace will likely be modest given the class level, and a pace-presser who settles into a rhythm could hold on.

Key Contenders

Erlan (POST 2) at 2-1 for trainer Shane Meyers gives Chavez a second ride on the day in an important spot. Meyers is a familiar name in the Thistledown trainer standings, and Erlan (POST 2) fits the non-winner-of-late condition well from post two. A clean break and stalking trip positions this horse perfectly to pounce in the lane.

Don't Stop (POST 6) at 2-1 for trainer James Jackson with Jason Simpson is the co-favorite from the outside post. Simpson is a capable rider at the meet, and the outside post in a six-horse field is manageable. Handicappers view Don't Stop (POST 6) as a legitimate threat to win based on recent fitness indicators, though the outside draw requires a wider trip than ideal.

Secondary Choices

Gamboling Ghost (POST 1) at 4-1 for DaCosta with Innis is an inside speed horse who could benefit from uncontested fractions in a six-horse field. The rail at Thistledown in sprint conditions gives a legitimate edge, and Gamboling Ghost (POST 1) fits as a potential pace-on-pace winner if the inside position holds. Innis knows this oval well.

Tonight (POST 3) at 5-1 for Radosevich with Barbaran is a middle-post runner with a reasonable price. Barbaran is active throughout the card today and has the conditioning book to know what Tonight (POST 3) needs for a peak effort.

Longshots

Making Me Crazy (POST 5) at 6-1 for Joseph Mahan with Angel Diaz is a middle-post runner at a price that could hit the board in a contested sprint. David's Gem (POST 4) at 10-1 for Gary Johnson with Jefferson Skerrett is a deep price with limited win expectations but could be included in trifecta slots at low cost.

Selections

Win: Erlan (POST 2) Place: Don't Stop (POST 6) Show: Gamboling Ghost (POST 1)

Betting Strategy: Box Erlan (POST 2) and Don't Stop (POST 6) in exactas. Add Gamboling Ghost (POST 1) as the rail speed play on top in trifectas. At $5,000 claiming level, any outcome is possible — keep trifecta tickets to part-wheels to manage cost.

RACE 4 — Post (2:20)/1:20/12:20/11:20 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 16000n3l | BUN | Purse $21,400

Six furlongs for $16,000 claimers who have not won three times lifetime. The six-horse field is headlined by two co-favorites at 2-1 — Kettle Coalmine (POST 1) and River Bye (POST 3) — with Vecchi (POST 5) pressing at 3-1.

Pace Analysis

Kettle Coalmine (POST 1) for Rodney Faulkner with Angel Diaz breaks from the rail and figures to be used forward early. River Bye (POST 3) for Kim Puhl with Gonzalez is a stalker type from post three. Vecchi (POST 5) at 3-1 for Rey Juarez-Mendoza with Fernando Salazar Becerra adds a third legitimate threat from the outside half. The pace should be moderate to solid depending on KETTLE COALMINE's (POST 1) aggressiveness, creating a scenario where a well-placed stalker could inherit the lead in the stretch.

Key Contenders

Kettle Coalmine (POST 1) at 2-1 for Faulkner and Diaz sets up as the rail speed with the best post in a sprint. Faulkner is a steady hand at Thistledown and Diaz is a regular in the colony. If this horse gets out cleanly and controls the pace from the inside, the position advantage makes Kettle Coalmine (POST 1) very difficult to beat.

River Bye (POST 3) at 2-1 for Puhl is another Kim Puhl runner, giving the leading trainer presence in this race as well. With Gonzalez again aboard, River Bye (POST 3) has the trip from post three to find a nice stalking position. Puhl's win percentage in these spots is reliable, and River Bye (POST 3) deserves equal billing with the morning line favorite.

Secondary Choices

Vecchi (POST 5) at 3-1 for Juarez-Mendoza with Salazar Becerra is a legitimate second-tier play. The 3-1 price in a six-horse field with co-favorites at 2-1 suggests this horse has meaningful form to support the shorter price. Post five gives room to find coverage while still being within striking distance.

Professor Nick (POST 6) at 5-1 for Zielinski with David Haldar is a closer type from the outside post who could be interesting if the pace collapses. Zielinski pairs again with Haldar, who has been riding for several stables throughout today's card.

Longshots

Strike Plate (POST 2) at 10-1 for Joshua Langley with Simpson is a deep price with limited realistic expectations. Truth N Soul (POST 4) at 15-1 for Radosevich with Barbaran is another Radosevich runner with a large number next to its name — difficult to use at this price in win wagering but a low-cost trifecta inclusion is defensible.

Selections

Win: River Bye (POST 3) Place: Kettle Coalmine (POST 1) Show: Vecchi (POST 5)

Betting Strategy: The two 2-1 shots here create modest exacta returns when boxed. Instead, single River Bye (POST 3) on top and spread underneath to Kettle Coalmine (POST 1) and Vecchi (POST 5). If the favorite picture shifts at the windows and River Bye (POST 3) goes off at 5-2 or better, the win bet holds excellent value. Include Professor Nick (POST 6) as a trifecta filler at low cost.

RACE 5 — Post (2:50)/1:50/12:50/11:50 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000b | BUN | Purse $12,600

A six-furlong $5,000 maiden or bottom claiming sprint with a field of seven. Simply Valid (POST 4) at 2-1 is the morning line favorite with Coastertothemoon (POST 5) and Zimba Warrior (POST 7) tied at 4-1 as the secondary choices.

Pace Analysis

Seven horses in a bottom-level sprint guarantees some pace pressure. Fast Talkin Man (POST 3) at 6-1 for Jevon Crumley with Simpson could be a pressing type, and Coastertothemoon (POST 5) with D.L. Parker for trainer Johanna Urieta figures to be forward. Simply Valid (POST 4) under Jose Atala with Salazar Becerra is likely a stalker type if the pace is honest. Breeze The Bayou (POST 2) for the Skerrett barn with Jefferson Skerrett aboard is a speed-on-speed complication from post two.

Key Contenders

Simply Valid (POST 4) at 2-1 for Atala and Salazar Becerra is the class figure here. From post four in a seven-horse field, this horse sits in a clean mid-pack spot and is well-drawn for a tactical ride. Atala runs a tight operation and the 2-1 morning line reflects consistent recent form. Salazar Becerra has been among the more active riders on the Thistledown circuit and pairs well with this conditioning team.

Coastertothemoon (POST 5) at 4-1 for Urieta with Parker is a forward-going type that should find a position just off the pace or pressing. Urieta stables a competitive group at this level, and the 4-1 morning line suggests legitimate contention. From post five, this runner avoids the early congestion while still maintaining a forward striking position.

Secondary Choices

Zimba Warrior (POST 7) at 4-1 for David Kirk Jr. with T.D. Houghton gets the outside post but carries co-second-choice odds, implying solid recent form. From post seven in a seven-horse sprint, the horse will need a wide trip or early positioning to avoid being last and caught wide through the turn.

Chalon's First (POST 1) at 5-1 for Mike Rone with Barbaran takes the inside post. Barbaran continues a busy day in the irons. From the rail at this class level, Chalon's First (POST 1) has a clear advantage if it can fire out of the gate cleanly. Rone and Barbaran have worked together regularly on today's card.

Longshots

Fast Talkin Man (POST 3) at 6-1 for Crumley and Simpson is a pace-setter who could steal this if the speed plays out. Breeze The Bayou (POST 2) at 8-1 for the Skerrett training operation with Jefferson Skerrett — a family stable pairing that occasionally produces better results than the price suggests. Cacique Abarrio (POST 6) at 15-1 for Skerrett with German Terraza is the longest price in the field and a very difficult inclusion in any structured wagering.

Selections

Win: Simply Valid (POST 4) Place: Coastertothemoon (POST 5) Show: Chalon's First (POST 1)

Betting Strategy: Simply Valid (POST 4) appears worth a solid win investment at 2-1. Build exactas around the favorite using Coastertothemoon (POST 5) and Zimba Warrior (POST 7). Add Chalon's First (POST 1) in the trifecta as the inside speed who could hold a position late. The bottom-claiming condition means any horse is capable of an off-the-board effort — keep tickets manageable.

RACE 6 — Post (3:20)/2:20/1:20/12:20 — 1760f | D | CO | OClm 16000 | BUN | Purse $23,600

The first of the two-turn route events at 1760 feet (a mile and a tenth) on the main track. An open $16,000 optional claiming condition with six runners and two co-favorites at 2-1 — Hot Gunner (POST 4) and Reign Champagne (POST 6), both trained by Kim Puhl.

Pace Analysis

The two-turn route creates more complex pace dynamics than the sprints earlier on the card. Eddie M (POST 1) at 8-1 for trainer Nestor Rivera with Bracho could be content to press from the rail through the first turn. Reinvest (POST 2) at 4-1 for Gary Johnson with Simpson and Big Lucky (POST 3) at 6-1, also for Rivera with Chavez, could fall into stalking positions. Hot Gunner (POST 4) and Reign Champagne (POST 6) for Puhl will dictate the pace shape based on running styles. With two runners from the same barn, there is an implicit understanding of trip management — one horse could be used to set pace while the other stalks, which is a significant tactical advantage for Puhl.

Key Contenders

Hot Gunner (POST 4) at 2-1 for Puhl with Rocco Bowen is the co-favorite with an excellent post for the two-turn route. Post four in a six-horse field at 1760 feet gives maximum flexibility — the horse can press or stalk with room to maneuver through the first turn. Bowen's experience in two-turn routes at Thistledown is an asset, and Puhl's win percentage with route runners is among the best at the meet.

Reign Champagne (POST 6) at 2-1, also for Puhl but with L.A. Gonzalez, creates an interesting same-barn dynamic. With the outside post at 1760 feet, the first turn poses a trip challenge, but Gonzalez is an experienced route rider who can manage early positioning. The Puhl barn's two-runner strategy here deserves full respect from bettors — both horses are co-favorited for legitimate reasons.

Secondary Choices

Reinvest (POST 2) at 4-1 for Johnson with Simpson is a viable price play in a route that may be contested early by the barn tactics of the Puhl stable. Johnson also trains Thru The Vine (POST 5) at 15-1, giving that barn a two-pronged entry as well. Reinvest (POST 2) at post two should find a comfortable stalking position behind whatever pace develops.

Big Lucky (POST 3) at 6-1 for Rivera with Chavez is the second Rivera runner on the day and a mid-price option from a good post in the route. Rivera stabling two horses in a six-runner race gives the barn options, similar to Puhl's strategy.

Longshots

Eddie M (POST 1) at 8-1 for Rivera with Bracho is an inside rail runner who could press cheaply in the early going of the two-turner. The 8-1 price makes this a trifecta-depth runner worth including in the bottom position. Thru The Vine (POST 5) at 15-1 for Johnson with Cedillo Mauro is a deep price — the longest on the board — and a very difficult play to structure winning returns around.

Selections

Win: Hot Gunner (POST 4) Place: Reign Champagne (POST 6) Show: Reinvest (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: The Puhl barn's dominance in this race creates an unusual betting angle. If you believe in the trainer's ability to manage two runners optimally, the exacta between Hot Gunner (POST 4) and Reign Champagne (POST 6) in both directions at even money is a reasonable hedge. However, the return on a same-barn exacta will be modest. The best value may be to single Hot Gunner (POST 4) on top and spread to Reinvest (POST 2), Big Lucky (POST 3), and Reign Champagne (POST 6) in the exacta bottom. In trifectas, anchor the Puhl pair on top and key through the non-Puhl runners for secondary value.

RACE 7 — Post (3:50)/2:50/1:50/12:50 — 1760f | D | C | Clm 16000n3l | BUM | Purse $21,400

The second two-turn route on the program, this time for $16,000 claimers who have not won three times. Six runners with two co-favorites at 2-1 — Lesotho (POST 3) and I Belong First (POST 6) — and Pride And Attitude (POST 1) at 3-1.

Pace Analysis

The marathon routing at 1760 feet again rewards horses with tactical positioning through the first turn. Pride And Attitude (POST 1) at 3-1 on the inside rail is extremely well-positioned for the first turn advantage, and with R. Feliciano at the controls, the horse has an experienced two-turn rider. Lesotho (POST 3) at 2-1 for trainer Robert Cline with Brandon Tapara and I Belong First (POST 6) at 2-1 for Justin Radosevich with Bracho create a three-way showdown. Exaltada (POST 2) for Cline with Cedillo adds another contender from the Cline barn, which also saddles Lesotho (POST 3) — another same-barn pair to monitor.

Key Contenders

Lesotho (POST 3) at 2-1 for Robert Cline and Brandon Tapara is positioned perfectly in a two-turn route. Post three in a six-horse field at 1760 feet is the ideal draw — close enough to the inside to save ground without being pinned on the rail. Cline stabling two runners (Lesotho (POST 3) and Exaltada (POST 2)) gives the barn a tactical edge. Tapara has been active today and knows the Cline operation well. This is the horse handicappers have identified as the most probable winner.

I Belong First (POST 6) at 2-1 for Justin Radosevich with Bracho shares the co-favorite price but takes the outside post in a two-turn route — a significant disadvantage in route racing at Thistledown. Bracho is a capable rider and will need to find position quickly through the first turn. The Radosevich name (Jeff and Justin operate separately) appears multiple times on today's card. The outside draw remains a genuine concern at the morning line.

Secondary Choices

Pride And Attitude (POST 1) at 3-1 for Joe Poole with Feliciano gets the inside rail in a two-turn event. As noted in the bias analysis, the rail at Thistledown in routes with moisture in the surface can be a meaningful advantage. At 3-1, this horse represents the best single price on a horse with a legitimate trip advantage. Feliciano is one of the more experienced jockeys on the card and rides routes well.

Exaltada (POST 2) at 4-1 for Cline with Cedillo is the second Cline entry. Post two is excellent for a two-turner — the horse can track Lesotho (POST 3) and get a textbook stalking trip. At 4-1, Exaltada (POST 2) represents a logical each-way play if the Cline barn fires both barrels.

Longshots

Count On Me (POST 4) at 15-1 for Saul Morales with Haldar is a deep price that could hit the board in a pace-honest route. Mac's Cailin (POST 5) at 20-1 for Emily Szczepanski with Barbaran is the longest price on the card today and a very difficult inclusion beyond deep trifecta coverage.

Selections

Win: Lesotho (POST 3) Place: Pride And Attitude (POST 1) Show: Exaltada (POST 2)

Betting Strategy: Lesotho (POST 3) at 2-1 is the play here despite the co-favorite pricing. Single on top and key beneath to Pride And Attitude (POST 1) and Exaltada (POST 2) in exactas. In trifectas, use Lesotho (POST 3) over Pride And Attitude (POST 1) and Exaltada (POST 2) over the field. The inside draw for Pride And Attitude (POST 1) is the value angle at 3-1 if you want to attack the chalk — reverse the exacta accordingly at modest cost.

RACE 8 — Post (4:20)/3:20/2:20/1:20 — 1320f | D | C | Clm 5000n1y | BUM | Purse $12,200

The closing race of the day is a six-furlong $5,000 claiming sprint for non-winners of the past year. Seven runners with Timely Secret (POST 4) as the 2-1 morning line favorite and Mali Bali (POST 3) at 3-1 as the clear second choice.

Pace Analysis

In a seven-horse bottom-claimer to close the card, pace is often volatile. Opulent Ways (POST 1) at 5-1 for Mikhail Carmichael with Bowen could be a pace-pressing type from the rail. Airforce Lightning (POST 7) at 8-1 for Juarez-Mendoza with Barbaran adds outside speed or early-position pressure. Timely Secret (POST 4) for Urieta with Victor Fernandez and Mali Bali (POST 3) for Saul Morales with Haldar will likely settle in a stalking role if the pace is honest. The setup figures to produce a moderate pace with the inside posts pressing.

Key Contenders

Timely Secret (POST 4) at 2-1 for trainer Johanna Urieta and jockey Victor Fernandez is the morning line favorite from a perfect middle-of-the-pack post. Urieta pairs Timely Secret (POST 4) and Coastertothemoon (POST 5) in the same afternoon, giving the barn multiple runners across the card. Timely Secret (POST 4) fits the non-winner-of-late condition and the 2-1 price reflects consistent recent effort. Post four in a seven-horse sprint is clean.

Mali Bali (POST 3) at 3-1 for Saul Morales with Haldar is the closest pursuer in the morning line. Post three is excellent, and Morales has been active at Thistledown with a capable string. Haldar has multiple mounts across today's card and is comfortable with the oval's characteristics.

Secondary Choices

Crackle (POST 5) at 4-1 for Khadeem Galloway with Salazar Becerra is a mid-price option from post five. Galloway is a lesser-known conditioner at the meet, but the 4-1 morning line implies this horse is competitive on recent form. Salazar Becerra is active throughout today's card and rides with confidence.

Opulent Ways (POST 1) at 5-1 for Carmichael with Bowen gets the inside rail — in a sprint to close the card after a full afternoon of racing, the rail at Thistledown is a legitimate edge. Bowen has had a full card of mounts today and knows the track's current configuration.

Longshots

Blazing Zenna (POST 6) at 8-1 for Joseph Mahan with Jefferson Skerrett is a distance between the chalk and the deep longshots. Mahan and Skerrett team up here after both have been active throughout the card. Airforce Lightning (POST 7) at 8-1 for Juarez-Mendoza with Barbaran is another 8-1 shot from the outside post. Tall Girl (POST 2) at 10-1 for Jose Romero with Miguel Martinez is a deep price that requires significant form justification. Martinez does not appear elsewhere on today's card, which limits trip and surface read.

Selections

Win: Timely Secret (POST 4) Place: Mali Bali (POST 3) Show: Crackle (POST 5)

Betting Strategy: Close the card with a strong win play on Timely Secret (POST 4). Box exactas between Timely Secret (POST 4) and Mali Bali (POST 3). Trifectas go Timely Secret (POST 4) and Mali Bali (POST 3) over the field with emphasis on Crackle (POST 5) and Opulent Ways (POST 1) in the third slot. Closing-race trifectas at bottom-level claiming can produce surprising returns even with chalk on top — spread accordingly.

Jockey Notes and Insights

Erik Barbaran stands out as the busiest rider on today's program, with mounts in Races 1, 3, 4, 5, 7, and 8 — six races across the full card. That level of activity at a single meet demonstrates his stature as a go-to rider in the Thistledown colony. Barbaran is aggressive and capable on the inside posts, which suits the bias conditions on today's card. His association with multiple trainers including Mike Rone, Jeff Radosevich, and Rey Juarez-Mendoza across the card gives him broad tactical knowledge of competing barns' intentions.

Rocco Bowen has prominent mounts in Races 1, 6, and 8, including the morning line favorite Money Magic (POST 6) in the opener and co-favorite Hot Gunner (POST 4) in Race 6. Bowen's ability to rate horses in two-turn routes is particularly relevant for the Race 6 assignment. He closes the card on Opulent Ways (POST 1) in Race 8 from the inside post.

L.A. Gonzalez rides for Kim Puhl in Races 2, 4, and 6, piloting Saving Heart (POST 1), River Bye (POST 3), and Reign Champagne (POST 6) respectively. Gonzalez is clearly the stable rider for Puhl's top selections, and that trainer-jockey alliance is among the most productive on the circuit. When Gonzalez and Puhl are in the same race, they deserve significant respect regardless of odds.

Jose Bracho has mounts in Races 1, 6, and 7, including the significant route assignment on I Belong First (POST 6) in Race 7. Bracho is a capable route pilot who manages two-turn trips with patience.

Jefferson Skerrett has multiple mounts across the card including Whiskey Point (POST 5) for the Puhl barn in Race 2, David's Gem (POST 4) in Race 3, and Blazing Zenna (POST 6) in Race 8. His connection to the Puhl barn is notable and any mount from that stable should be elevated.

Jason Simpson rides throughout the card including Don't Stop (POST 6) in Race 3, Strike Plate (POST 2) in Race 4, Fast Talkin Man (POST 3) in Race 5, and Reinvest (POST 2) in Race 6. Simpson is a utility rider who handles multiple barn relationships simultaneously.

Brandon Tapara's most significant mount is Lesotho (POST 3) in Race 7 for Robert Cline. Tapara also opens the card on Dublin Time (POST 1) in Race 1. His route assignment in Race 7 is the key booking.

Trainer Notes and Insights

Kim Puhl is the dominant training presence on today's Thistledown card, saddling runners in Races 2, 4, 6, and 7. Puhl has multiple entries in both Race 2 (Saving Heart (POST 1) and Whiskey Point (POST 5)) and Race 6 (Hot Gunner (POST 4) and Reign Champagne (POST 6)). This level of barn presence at a single meet indicates Puhl is running a high-volume, well-organized operation at Thistledown. The trainer's win percentage in sprint and route conditions at this oval is reliable, and the consistent pairing with Gonzalez as the stable's first jockey is a meaningful betting indicator. When Puhl fields two horses in the same race, the tendency is to use one as a pace setter to benefit the other, though both co-favorites in Race 6 suggest genuine win equity for each.

Jeff Radosevich has runners across the card including Drury Lane (POST 2) in Race 2, Tonight (POST 3) in Race 3, and Truth N Soul (POST 4) in Race 4. These horses carry varying price expectations, but Radosevich is a steady conditioner at the meet who occasionally sends out a surprising winner at a price.

Justin Radosevich (a separate operation from Jeff) saddles I Belong First (POST 6) in the significant Route 7 co-favorite spot. Justin's presence in the co-favorite role speaks to the horse's recent form.

Robert Cline has two runners in Race 7 — Lesotho (POST 3) and Exaltada (POST 2) — giving the barn its own multi-entry dynamic in the marathon route. Cline's decision to enter two horses in the same route suggests genuine confidence in both runners' fitness, and the inside posts for both (two and three) are tactically advantageous.

Gary Johnson saddles Reinvest (POST 2) and Thru The Vine (POST 5) in Race 6, another two-horse entry in the same race. Johnson's presence in routes has been noted across the Thistledown circuit.

Rey Juarez-Mendoza has runners in Races 1, 4, and 8 — Triangulo Rojo (POST 7), Vecchi (POST 5), and Airforce Lightning (POST 7). The trainer's barn is active and any of his runners at the right price deserves consideration.

Nestor Rivera is another trainer with two entries in the same race — Eddie M (POST 1) and Big Lucky (POST 3) in Race 6 — reflecting a similar pace-management strategy as the Puhl and Johnson barns.

Johanna Urieta saddles Coastertothemoon (POST 5) in Race 5 and Timely Secret (POST 4) in Race 8, a busy afternoon for a trainer with multiple live shots on the card.

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The most significant angle on today's Thistledown card is the Kim Puhl stable's dominance across four races. Puhl sends out horses in Races 2, 4, 6, and 7, with multiple entries in Races 2 and 6. For bettors building Pick 4 sequences or multi-race wagers, Puhl's presence is a structuring tool — when a Puhl horse appears in a leg, it deserves to be included in most tickets.

The Pick 4 spanning Races 5 through 8 offers an intriguing construction. Starting with Simply Valid (POST 4) in Race 5 as a single, then spreading in Race 6 to both Puhl horses Hot Gunner (POST 4) and Reign Champagne (POST 6), then doubling Lesotho (POST 3) and Pride And Attitude (POST 1) in Race 7, and finishing with Timely Secret (POST 4) and Mali Bali (POST 3) in Race 8 creates a manageable ticket at moderate cost. A two-horse top in Race 5 (Simply Valid (POST 4) and Coastertothemoon (POST 5)) with the same spread approach builds ticket cost modestly but increases coverage significantly.

The Pick 5 spanning Races 4 through 8 adds Race 4 to the above structure. Using River Bye (POST 3) as a single in Race 4 anchors the sequence at a short price and lets you spread more liberally in later legs, particularly Race 6 where the Puhl stable's two-entry strategy suggests covering both co-favorites is mandatory.

Value plays on the card include Pride And Attitude (POST 1) at 3-1 in Race 7 as a single win play with the inside rail advantage in a two-turn route — this is the best price on a horse with a clear positional edge on today's card. Exaltada (POST 2) at 4-1 from post two in the same race as a Cline barn runner is an each-way value with an excellent inside draw.

In Race 2, the two co-favorites at 2-1 create a situation where the exacta return for a Call Shadd (POST 4) and Metaphor (POST 3) box will be minimal. The true value in Race 2 is building trifectas using Saving Heart (POST 1) and Whiskey Point (POST 5) in the third slot — if any longshot or second-tier horse runs into the trifecta behind the two chalk horses, the payoff will be meaningful.

Reinvest (POST 2) at 4-1 in Race 6 represents solid overlay value against two 2-1 favorites from the same barn. If the Puhl horses interfere with each other's running style or one jockey sacrifices the other's horse for position, Reinvest (POST 2) could inherit a winning trip at a price that justifies the win investment.

The closing race exacta between Timely Secret (POST 4) at 2-1 and Mali Bali (POST 3) at 3-1 is the most reliable pairing on the card to close the day. Box the two at modest cost and overlay the trifecta by including Crackle (POST 5) and Opulent Ways (POST 1) in the third slot for a reasonable wager that can produce a satisfying closing-race score.

Before wagering, check the Latest Race Scratches, Changes, and Conditions post for any last-minute scratches or race changes.


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