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Today’s eight-race Ohio-bred card at Mahoning Valley presents competitive betting opportunities with track conditions currently listed as Good after fluctuating between Fast and Good throughout the morning. Temperatures are sitting at 44°F with WSW winds at 12 mph under cloudy skies, creating typical fall racing conditions in the Ohio Valley.
Track Surface Analysis
The dirt main track has shown variability today, moving from Good to Fast and back to Good conditions as reported this morning. This surface change typically favors horses with tactical speed who can adapt to the changing conditions. The 6-furlong distance dominates today’s card, with all races contested at this sprint distance.
Race-by-Race Analysis
Race 1 – Maiden Special Weight (12:15 PM)
This $31,800 maiden event for 2-year-old Ohio-bred fillies features six runners with Hot Dispute standing out as the morning line favorite. Trainer William Cowans sends out Hot Dispute with jockey Yan Aviles, while Shane Meyers, who maintains a 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage in 2025, saddles Bourbon N Blush with Ricardo Feliciano.
Key Contenders: Hot Dispute brings tactical speed and professional connections, while Bourbon N Blush benefits from Meyers’ current good form. Kiddie Cocktail from the Robert Gorham barn deserves respect, as Gorham has been among the leading trainers at the meet with strong recent statistics.
Pace Analysis: This race should develop moderate early fractions with Hot Dispute and Bourbon N Blush likely to contest the early lead.
Selection: Hot Dispute (4) over Bourbon N Blush (1) and Kiddie Cocktail (5)
Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight (12:42 PM)
This second race features a competitive field of Ohio-bred fillies and mares seeking their first career victory. With Slippery Storm scratched by the veterinarian, six horses remain to contest this maiden special weight event.
Field Analysis
Tampa Teacher (1) – 3-year-old filly
The David Wolochuk trainee draws the rail with veteran jockey Chelsey Keiser aboard. This combination brings local knowledge and tactical experience to the race. Tampa Teacher shows form figures of 88-47, indicating she has been competitive in recent starts without breaking through. The inside post position could prove advantageous in a six-horse field, allowing Keiser to dictate pace early.
Mandavilla (2) – 6-year-old mare
The veteran mare represents trainer Kristina M. Tumblin with Jann N. Hernandez riding. At six years old, Mandavilla carries the burden of 126 pounds as an older horse but brings significant race experience to this maiden field. Her connections suggest she has been competitive enough to warrant continued racing at this level.
In Too Deep (4) – 3-year-old filly
Larry E. Smith sends out this 3-year-old with Luciano Hernandez in the saddle. Smith brings impressive credentials as a multiple graded stakes-winning trainer with a career 12% strike rate and 38% in-the-money percentage. Most importantly, Smith is performing at a strong 13% win rate and 46% ITM percentage in 2025 with 3 wins from 24 starts. This current form suggests In Too Deep could benefit from quality training.
Lady Loves Money (5) – 3-year-old filly
Lorenzo Juarez trains this filly with Luis Raul Rivera riding. Recent entries show Lady Loves Money has been active at the track level. Rivera brings experience to the mount and familiarity with the Mahoning Valley racing surface.
City Blaze (6) – 3-year-old filly
Kevin Fletcher’s trainee shows recent workout activity, indicating readiness for today’s assignment. Rafael Mojica Jr. takes the mount on this filly who has been preparing steadily for her racing opportunities.
Country Promises (7) – 3-year-old filly
The Robert M. Gorham trainee pairs with Erik Barbaran, forming one of the meet’s most successful combinations. Gorham has been among the leading trainers during the current meet with consistent results and strong form patterns. Barbaran’s aggressive riding style and track knowledge make this combination particularly dangerous in maiden company.
Pace Analysis
This six-horse field should develop a moderate pace scenario, with Tampa Teacher from the rail potentially taking the early lead. The outside post positions of City Blaze and Country Promises may require some early positioning, but the small field size minimizes traffic concerns.
The 3-year-old fillies carry 123 pounds while 6-year-old Mandavilla faces the 126-pound impost, creating a slight weight disadvantage for the veteran mare but potentially indicating class superiority from the racing office.
Key Handicapping Angles
Trainer Form: Larry E. Smith’s strong 2025 statistics (13% wins, 46% ITM from 24 starts) make In Too Deep particularly interesting. The combination of proven training ability and current good form provides significant handicapping value.
Local Connections: The Gorham/Barbaran partnership brings the strongest local meet credentials to Country Promises, while the Wolochuk/Keiser combination offers tactical versatility with Tampa Teacher.
Experience Factor: Mandavilla’s age and experience could prove decisive if the younger fillies show typical maiden inconsistency.
Wagering Analysis
Win Contenders: In Too Deep offers the best combination of current trainer form and class. Country Promises brings the strongest jockey/trainer partnership currently at the meet.
Value Plays: Tampa Teacher from the rail could provide morning line value if overlooked due to her recent form figures.
Exotic Opportunities: The small field size makes this race ideal for exacta and trifecta wagering, with multiple logical contenders creating attractive payoff scenarios.
Race Selection
Top Choice: In Too Deep (4) – Larry E. Smith’s exceptional 2025 form (13% wins, 46% ITM) combined with the quality of this graded stakes-winning trainer makes this filly the selection.
Win: In Too Deep
Place: Country Promises
Show: Tampa Teacher
Exacta: 4-7, 7-4
Trifecta: 4-7-1, 7-4-1, 4-1-7
The combination of Smith’s current hot form and proven ability at the highest levels gives In Too Deep the edge in this competitive maiden field.
Race 3 – $5,000 Claiming (1:10 PM)
This competitive claiming race features Flat Lucky coming off a stewards’ scratch. The veteran gelding Markhamian brings experience from Luis Alberto Batista, while Zaddy offers value as a lightly raced 3-year-old stepping down in class.
Pace Scenario: Multiple speed horses suggest honest early fractions that could set up a closer.
Selection: Zaddy (4) over Markhamian (1) and Don’t Cross Jack (3)
Race 4 – Allowance (1:38 PM)
Several horses have been scratched from this $27,500 allowance, including Bah Humbug, Getaway Bay, and Kitty Kitana due to various reasons. This creates a more manageable field for handicapping.
Top Choice: My Suzie Q from Jason DaCosta’s stable brings class and consistency to this restricted allowance condition.
Selection: My Suzie Q (1) over Explosive Lady (2) and Legacy Trail (7)
Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight (2:06 PM)
This marquee maiden special weight event features 11 Ohio-bred 2-year-old colts and geldings after the scratch of Wisley by the veterinarian. The large field creates excellent exotic betting opportunities while presenting multiple logical contenders with morning line favorite Mr. Riffle at 5/2 odds.
Field Analysis & Key Contenders
Mr. Riffle (12) – Morning Line Favorite 5/2
Robert C. Cline sends out the betting favorite with jockey Jose A. Bracho. Cline brings solid credentials, having developed into a successful trainer since 2015 with experience at quality circuits including Oaklawn Park and Canterbury Park. His background working under Larry Jones provides strong foundational training methods. The outside post position requires tactical navigation in this large field.
Unbridled O’Brien (1) – Second Choice 9/2
Ivan Calderon’s trainee draws the rail with Angel I. Diaz riding. This 2-year-old colt by Beau Liam ran fourth in his debut at Thistledown on October 3rd, showing respectable form in a 5½ furlong maiden event. The rail draw provides tactical advantages in the large field, allowing Diaz to save ground while rating behind the early pace.
Dream Police (3) – Strong Trainer Angle
Timothy E. Hamm saddles this colt with Laureano Sosa aboard. Hamm has been performing exceptionally well recently with strong statistics at the current meet. His training operation focuses on Midwest circuits including Thistledown, Belterra Park, and Presque Isle, bringing extensive experience with Ohio-bred racing. The moderate post position allows for tactical flexibility.
Jolly Mon (2) – Live Combination
Robert M. Gorham pairs with Erik Barbaran, forming one of the meet’s strongest trainer-jockey combinations. Gorham has been among the leading trainers during the current meet with a solid strike rate and consistent form patterns. Barbaran’s aggressive riding style and local track knowledge make this partnership particularly dangerous in maiden company.
Bukele (5) – Value Trainer
Caryn Vecchio sends out this Tapiture colt with Alexander Chavez riding. Vecchio brings impressive credentials as a multiple graded stakes-winning trainer with career statistics of 794 wins from 6,378 starts (12% win rate, 38% in-the-money). Most importantly, she’s performing at a 13% win rate and 46% ITM percentage in 2025, indicating current good form with her string.
Secondary Contenders
Machico Madeira (9) represents trainer Michael L. Rone with Mauro Cedillo riding. Rone operates from Ohio and maintains hands-on involvement with his horses, personally galloping every horse in his barn.
Skytree (10) brings another Timothy Hamm trainee with Rocco Bowen aboard, providing Hamm with multiple chances in this competitive field.
Leavetheninetynine (8) represents Jeffrey A. Radosevich with Luis Raul Rivera, adding another experienced local combination to the mix.
Pace Analysis
This 11-horse field of 2-year-olds should develop into a fast early pace scenario with multiple speed horses likely to contest the early lead. The large field size typically favors horses with tactical speed who can secure good position without being caught in early speed duels.
Expected early leaders include horses from the inside posts (Unbridled O’Brien, Jolly Mon, Dream Police) who can secure good position from the break. Mid-pack runners like Bukele and Machico Madeira could benefit from the anticipated fast pace, while closers may struggle due to the typical aggressive nature of 2-year-old racing.
Key Handicapping Angles
Trainer Form: Timothy Hamm’s exceptional recent form makes both Dream Police and Skytree particularly interesting. Caryn Vecchio’s 2025 statistics (13% wins, 46% ITM) provide strong statistical support for Bukele.
Track Experience: Unbridled O’Brien showed competitive form in his Thistledown debut, indicating readiness for today’s assignment.
Jockey/Trainer Combinations: The Gorham/Barbaran partnership with Jolly Mon brings the strongest local meet credentials, while established combinations like Hamm/Sosa with Dream Police offer consistency.
Post Position Strategy: The rail draw favors Unbridled O’Brien’s chances of saving ground, while outside posts require more aggressive early tactics from riders.
Exotic Betting Opportunities
This large field creates exceptional value in trifecta and superfecta wagering. The presence of multiple logical contenders at varying odds levels should produce attractive payoffs in exotic wagers.
Key Combinations:
- Trifecta: 1-3-5, 3-1-2, 5-3-1
- Superfecta: 1-3-2-5, 3-1-5-2, 5-1-3-9
Wagering Analysis
Win Contenders: Dream Police offers the best combination of trainer form and tactical position. Unbridled O’Brien provides value with race experience and the rail draw.
Value Plays: Bukele at longer odds with Vecchio’s excellent trainer statistics represents significant overlay potential.
Pace Advantage: Horses positioned to benefit from the expected fast pace include tactical runners in the 4-8 post positions.
Race Selections
Top Choice: Dream Police (3) – Timothy Hamm’s exceptional recent meet performance combined with Laureano Sosa’s riding ability and the tactical post position make this the selection.
Win Bets: Dream Police (3), Unbridled O’Brien (1)
Place: Dream Police (3), Bukele (5), Jolly Mon (2)
Show: Dream Police (3), Unbridled O’Brien (1), Mr. Riffle (12)
Exacta: 3-1, 1-3, 3-5, 5-3
Trifecta: 3-1-5, 1-3-2, 5-3-1
Superfecta: 3-1-5-2, 1-3-2-5, 3-5-1-9
The combination of Hamm’s hot form, proven training ability, and Dream Police’s tactical position from post three provides the strongest handicapping angle in this competitive maiden field.
Race 6 – Allowance (2:34 PM)
Stay Frosty headlines this allowance field with strong breeding by Frosted. The Knicks Gate entry brings Arrogate bloodlines and tactical ability. Seven runners make for manageable field size and good wagering opportunities.
Key Angle: The allowance condition restricts this to horses that have never won two races, creating a competitive balance.
Selection: Stay Frosty (1) over Knicks Gate (4) and It’s Last Call (3)
Race 7 – Ohio-bred Allowance (3:03 PM)
This restricted allowance race for Ohio-bred fillies and mares that have never won two races presents competitive wagering opportunities after the scratch of Greek Boutique by the stewards, leaving eight fillies to contest the $33,700 purse.
Field Analysis & Key Contenders
Watch Me Daddy (3) – Top Selection
Robert C. Cline’s 3-year-old filly brings impressive recent form with jockey Luis Raul Rivera aboard. This daughter of Flagship shows a solid record of 9 starts with 1 win, 3 places, and 1 show for earnings of $52,785. Most significantly, she captured a maiden special weight victory at Belterra Park on July 17th, winning by an impressive 11 lengths. Her most recent start saw her finish third at Belterra Park on August 23rd, beaten just 4 lengths while sitting close to the pace throughout.
The Cline/Rivera combination brings strong local credentials, with Cline maintaining solid statistics and tactical expertise developed through his experience at quality circuits. The weight relief to 121 pounds under the allowance conditions provides additional advantage.
Laketown Elly (2) – Strong Recent Form
Craig Sweeting sends out this improving 3-year-old with Luis Alberto Batista riding. Most importantly, Laketown Elly scored her breakthrough maiden victory at Thistledown on October 8th, winning impressively as the 15/8 favorite. This recent success demonstrates she has turned the corner and found her winning form.
Prior to breaking through, she had been showing consistent improvement with place finishes, indicating the maiden victory was a logical progression rather than a fluke performance. The Sweeting/Batista combination has been clicking recently, and the confidence boost from the maiden win makes her particularly dangerous stepping up in class.
Crack a Smile (5) – Dangerous Longshot
The Robert M. Gorham trainee pairs with Fernando Salazar Becerra, creating one of the meet’s strongest combinations. This 3-year-old has been running competitive races, including a close second-place finish that demonstrates her ability to compete at this level.
Gorham’s exceptional meet statistics combined with Becerra’s riding ability provide strong handicapping angles. Recent form lines show consistent improvement, and the weight allowance to 121 pounds enhances her chances significantly. The morning line odds should provide value given the quality of connections.
Mon Minou (6) – Consistent Cline Runner
Another Robert Cline trainee with Victor R. Fernandez aboard. This 3-year-old daughter of Cowtown Cat shows a pattern of consistent efforts including a recent third-place finish at Thistledown on September 30th.
The Cline/Fernandez partnership has been productive, with Mon Minou demonstrating tactical versatility and the ability to finish strongly. Her breeding suggests she should handle today’s distance effectively, and the allowance conditions suit her current class level perfectly.
Secondary Contenders
Ron Dah Lou (8) represents trainer Kristina M. Tumblin with German Terraza riding. As a 4-year-old mare, she carries 124 pounds but brings race experience that could prove valuable in this spot.
Gabadost (1) from Christi Lynn Esposito’s barn with Bailey Weatherly aboard draws the rail position, which could provide tactical advantages in this eight-horse field.
Cowgirltakemeaway (4) shows a record of 4 starts with 1 win, 1 place for $29,000 in earnings, indicating some ability at this level.
Pace Analysis
This allowance field should develop moderate early fractions with several horses showing tactical speed. Watch Me Daddy’s proven ability to rate just off the pace makes her particularly well-suited to the expected scenario. The rail-drawn Gabadost may look to secure an early position, while the Cline runners possess the tactical versatility to adapt to various pace scenarios.
The 6-furlong distance favors horses with tactical speed who can finish strongly, rather than pure early speed or deep closers.
Key Handicapping Angles
Trainer Patterns: Robert Cline’s multiple entries (Watch Me Daddy, Mon Minou) demonstrate confidence in the stable’s current form. Cline’s experience at quality circuits including Canterbury Park and his development under Larry Jones provide strong credentials.
Recent Class Relief: Several horses step down from tougher spots or benefit from allowance weight allowances, creating competitive balance throughout the field.
Current Form: Laketown Elly’s recent maiden victory and Watch Me Daddy’s consistent efforts provide the strongest current form angles in the race.
Wagering Analysis
Win Contenders: Watch Me Daddy offers the best combination of current form, proven ability, and tactical advantages. Laketown Elly brings momentum from her recent breakthrough victory.
Value Plays: Crack a Smile with the Gorham/Becerra combination should provide overlay value given the quality of connections and recent competitive efforts.
Exotic Opportunities: The eight-horse field creates manageable trifecta and exacta possibilities with multiple logical contenders.
Race Selections
Top Choice: Watch Me Daddy (3) – The combination of proven class (11-length maiden victory), current form (recent competitive efforts), tactical speed, and the reliable Cline/Rivera partnership makes this the selection.
Win Bets: Watch Me Daddy (3), Laketown Elly (2)
Place: Watch Me Daddy (3), Crack a Smile (5), Laketown Elly (2)
Show: Watch Me Daddy (3), Mon Minou (6), Crack a Smile (5)
Exacta: 3-2, 2-3, 3-5, 5-3
Trifecta: 3-2-5, 2-3-6, 3-5-2
Watch Me Daddy’s proven ability at this distance, recent competitive form, and the tactical advantages of her running style make her the logical choice in this competitive allowance field.
Race 8 – Maiden Special Weight (3:36 PM)
The finale features 12 Ohio-bred maidens aged three and older seeking their first career victory in this competitive $31,800 event. This large field creates excellent exotic betting opportunities while presenting multiple logical angles for handicappers.
Top Tier Contenders
Truth N Soul (6) – Top Selection
Jeffrey A. Radosevich sends out this well-bred 3-year-old colt with Erik Barbaran aboard. Radosevich brings impressive credentials as a multiple graded stakes-winning trainer with career statistics of 794 wins from 6,378 starts (12% win rate, 38% in-the-money percentage). Most significantly, he’s performing exceptionally well in 2025 with a 13% win rate and 46% ITM percentage from 24 starts, indicating his string is in excellent current form.
The Radosevich/Barbaran combination represents the strongest trainer-jockey partnership on today’s card, with Barbaran’s aggressive riding style perfectly suited to Radosevich’s tactical approach. Truth N Soul shows recent form figures of 724642, indicating competitive efforts while learning his trade. The colt has been working steadily and appears ready for his breakthrough performance.
Big Daddy Hank (2) – Rising Prospect
Christian Flores saddles this improving 3-year-old gelding with Kevin Gonzalez riding. This son of One Sided out of La Luna Rouge shows promising breeding and represents a young trainer with growing reputation. The second post position provides tactical advantages, allowing Gonzalez to secure good position from the break.
Recent workout patterns suggest Big Daddy Hank has been training forwardly, and his breeding indicates he should handle the 6-furlong distance effectively. The combination of youth and potential makes him a dangerous opponent in this maiden field.
Wild Domain (8) – Proven Experience
Jason DaCosta’s 3-year-old gelding brings race experience with Fernando Salazar Becerra aboard. This son of One Sided has shown competitive form in recent starts, including a third-place effort that demonstrates his ability to finish. Most notably, Wild Domain ran as the 11/10 favorite in a previous maiden event, indicating connections expected a strong performance.
The DaCosta/Becerra combination has been productive recently, with multiple wins recorded throughout the 2025 season. Wild Domain’s tactical speed and proven ability to compete at this level make him a logical contender from the outside post position.
Secondary Contenders
Crypto Chris (9) – Value Play
Jose A. Romero trains this 3-year-old gelding with Luis Alberto Batista riding. Recent form shows he finished sixth in a maiden special weight at Thistledown on October 10th, indicating competitive ability at this level. The morning line odds should provide value given his demonstrated racing ability.
Rivers Run Fast (12) – Longshot Potential
Richard J. Rettele sends out this 3-year-old with Anthony Rodriguez aboard. The Rettele/Rodriguez combination has been productive recently, with Rodriguez scoring a victory for the stable on October 21st at Mahoning Valley. This partnership brings current positive momentum to the race.
Rich On the River (10) – Interesting Outsider
Michelle Winters’ 4-year-old gelding carries 126 pounds as an older horse but brings race experience to the contest. Alexander Chavez takes the mount on this son of Majesticperfection, who has been working steadily in preparation for today’s assignment.
Third Tier Runners
Grace Meyers (1) represents Scott W. Barker with Luis A. Hernandez riding. This 4-year-old gelding by Tenkoz draws the rail position in his first career start, which could provide tactical advantages if he shows early speed.
Music Mo (5) from Alejandro Olais Mendieta’s stable shows recent workout activity, indicating readiness for today’s assignment. Angel I. Diaz takes the mount on this lightly raced prospect.
Pace Analysis
This 12-horse maiden field should develop into a fast early pace with multiple runners showing speed figures and breeding that suggests early tactical speed. The large field typically creates traffic issues, favoring horses with good post positions and experienced jockeys who can navigate the early going effectively.
Expected early leaders include horses from posts 1-4 (Grace Meyers, Big Daddy Hank, Catching My Wind, Couple Beers Deep), while mid-pack runners like Truth N Soul and Wild Domain should benefit from the anticipated pace pressure on the leaders.
Key Handicapping Angles
Trainer Form: Jeffrey Radosevich’s exceptional 2025 statistics (13% wins, 46% ITM from 24 starts) provide the strongest statistical support in the race. His proven ability at the graded stakes level combined with current hot form makes Truth N Soul the logical selection.
Jockey/Trainer Combinations: The established partnerships of Radosevich/Barbaran and Rettele/Rodriguez bring proven chemistry, while the DaCosta/Becerra combination has been clicking throughout 2025.
Race Experience: Horses with previous starts like Wild Domain and Crypto Chris hold advantages over first-time starters in this competitive field.
Wagering Analysis
Win Contenders: Truth N Soul offers the best combination of trainer form, proven connections, and tactical advantages. Big Daddy Hank provides youth and potential from an ideal post position.
Value Plays: Crypto Chris at longer odds with demonstrated racing ability represents overlay potential. Rivers Run Fast with the hot Rettele/Rodriguez combination could provide longshot value.
Exotic Opportunities: The 12-horse field creates exceptional trifecta and superfecta value with multiple price levels throughout the field.
Race Selections
Top Choice: Truth N Soul (6) – Jeffrey Radosevich’s outstanding 2025 form (13% wins, 46% ITM) combined with Erik Barbaran’s riding ability and the colt’s tactical advantages make this the selection.
Win Bets: Truth N Soul (6), Big Daddy Hank (2)
Place: Truth N Soul (6), Wild Domain (8), Big Daddy Hank (2)
Show: Truth N Soul (6), Crypto Chris (9), Rivers Run Fast (12)
Exacta: 6-2, 2-6, 6-8, 8-6
Trifecta: 6-2-8, 2-6-9, 6-8-12
Superfecta: 6-2-8-9, 2-6-9-12, 6-8-2-12
The combination of Radosevich’s hot trainer form, proven graded stakes ability, and current statistical excellence makes Truth N Soul the logical choice to conclude the Mahoning Valley card with a victory.
Trainer and Jockey Notes
Shane Meyers continues his solid 2025 campaign with a 13% win rate and 46% in-the-money percentage across 24 starts. His horses consistently show improvement and tactical versatility.
Robert Gorham has been among the meet’s leading trainers with a 16% strike rate over the past 21 days. His horses typically come to hand quickly and show consistent form patterns.
Erik Barbaran brings veteran experience with multiple mounts today and familiarity with the local racing surface. His aggressive riding style suits several pace scenarios on the card.
Timothy Hamm maintains a strong 26-28% win rate recently and should be respected with Dream Police in Race 5.
Wagering Strategies
The changing track conditions favor daily double and pick-3 sequences over individual win betting. Focus on races 5-7 for the late pick-3, as the large fields create value opportunities.
Best Single: Stay Frosty in Race 6 appears the most reliable winner on the card.
Best Value: Zaddy in Race 3 offers solid value in the claiming race stepping down in class.
Exotic Focus: Race 5’s 11-horse maiden field provides the best trifecta and superfecta betting opportunities.