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The Pick Pony Mini Tip Sheet is published daily and provides consolidated analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.

Fountain of Youth Day at Gulfstream Park presents a 14-race Championship Meet card highlighted by nine stakes (eight graded) worth more than two million dollars in purses, headlined by the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes for Kentucky Derby hopefuls. The undercard includes the Davona Dale for Kentucky Oaks prospects, the Gulfstream Park Mile, the Mac Diarmida, the Very One, the Honey Fox, the Canadian Turf, the Herecomesthebride, and the Colonel Liam, creating a top-to-bottom stakes-laden program. Large, competitive fields in both allowance and maiden races support the stakes, ensuring strong pools and deep opportunities for multi-race and intra-race exotics.

Weather and Track Conditions

Conditions are expected to be ideal, with warm South Florida temperatures in the mid-80s and dry weather projected throughout the card. The main track should be listed as Fast and the turf course Firm, with no rain in the forecast to compromise footing. A mild ocean breeze will keep Humidity manageable, minimizing any excessive drying or cupping of the dirt surface and leaving both courses in optimal condition for high-level racing.

Track Bias and Post Position Tendencies

On the Gulfstream main track, one-turn races (sprints and one-turn miles) typically favor horses with early speed or strong tactical position, and deep closers rarely Dominate Without a pace collapse. In two-turn dirt routes, inside posts have historically held an advantage, with posts 1–3 producing a higher-than-average win rate, while stalkers and mid-pack runners often fare better than pure front-runners over added ground. On the turf course, there is little consistent post-position bias, but the profile strongly favors stalkers sitting a few lengths off the lead, as opposed to extreme front-runners or deep closers; mid-pack trips with clear outside runs have proven especially effective. The Tapeta track tends to Play fairly to all styles, with a slight edge to tactical speed that can sit just off the early leaders and avoid traffic.

Race-by-Race Summary of Key Runners

Race 1 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf

This large field of older turf runners opens the card with a contested pace scenario favoring strong stalkers. Noble Confessor (1) has key back class and an inside draw for a top barn, projecting a ground-saving trip just behind the speed. Smooth Breeze (3) benefits from a leading rider and looks poised to improve second off the layoff. Our Souper Hero (7) has enough tactical speed to make his own trip near the front, while Uncatalyzed (12), Revolutionnaire (9), and Pierre (13) are logical secondary types capable of capitalizing on a hot pace. Profound (8) and Pierre (13) are the longer-priced runners with the right turf profiles to outrun their odds if they secure clean trips.

Race 2 – Maiden Special Weight, 6 Furlongs Dirt

This six-furlong maiden sprint for three-year-olds features a blend of experienced runners and well-bred first-time starters. Quentin B (8) owns the best established form after a troubled but promising debut against a strong winner and should improve with a cleaner break. Sovereign Law (1) debuts for a high-percentage barn from a favorable rail draw and figures prominently among the firsters. Lincoln’s Law (9), Mccann (3), and Al Loud (7) form the main group of secondary contenders, each with significant upside based on connections and works. Dark Assault (4) and Gilded Bandit (11) profile as longshots who could grab minor awards if they handle the kickback and show natural speed.

Race 3 – Colonel Liam Stakes, 1 Mile Turf

Three-year-old turf colts line up for this mile stake on grass in what should be an Honest but not Blistering pace. Honey Dutch (4) possesses speed and could control the race if allowed to settle into a comfortable rhythm, making him a key player. Thousandsticks (6) brings proven stakes form over this course and projects to sit just off the leaders as a major threat turning for home. Argos (5), a Grade 1-winning juvenile, returns with Legitimate class credentials and looms a strong late-running factor if fit and ready. Knoty Knicks (7) and I C Light (3) are the main secondary contenders, both needing a favorable trip and a well-timed run to upset the top trio.

Race 4 – Canadian Turf Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles Turf

The Canadian Turf centers around Wolfie’s Dynaghost (7), a proven track-record-setting turf star who projects as likely lone speed and the strongest overall horse on paper. If left alone on the lead, he becomes very difficult to reel in, especially over firm ground. Fort Washington (8), a Grade 1 winner with a potent late kick, is the most logical rival and should relish a stalking or closing trip. Beach Gold (3), who chased Wolfie’s Dynaghost in the Fort Lauderdale, and Tiz Dashing (4), a graded stakes winner carrying top weight, round out the primary group of challengers. Their success will depend on whether they can pressure or soften the favorite early Without compromising their own finishes.

Race 5 – Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Dirt

This one-turn mile maiden for three-year-olds is a classic deep Gulfstream maiden featuring multiple future stakes prospects. Royal Crescent (8) exits a subtly strong debut after a tough rail trip and now draws better outside, making him a leading contender to Step Forward. Criteria (7) owns high-quality debut form against a strong winner and brings a dangerous combination of tactical speed and stamina. Moonstrocity (5) moves from a promising turf effort to dirt and could be a sneaky improver for a capable barn. Hickman Creek (9) and Bold Fact (6) form the main secondary tier based on connections and likely pace presence, while Steel (3) provides a longshot alternative for underneath spots if he handles the surface and distance.

Race 6 – Herecomesthebride Stakes, 1 Mile Turf

The three-year-old turf fillies in the Herecomesthebride are led by Sister Troienne (9), a filly riding an extended win streak through multiple local stakes, whose tactical versatility from a wide draw makes her the clear one to beat. She can stalk or press, and her prior dominance over this course is a major plus. Spirit Doll (10), a talented stakes winner returning from time off, is the main danger if she returns near peak form and works out a clean trip. Sapphire Beach (5), a recent allowance winner, and Spicy Princess (8), who has finished behind Sister Troienne but continues to move forward, form the core secondary group. Brat Pack (3) and Connect The Stars (7) are longer-priced fillies with enough upside to grab a share if the race collapses late or the favorite underperforms.

Race 7 – Gulfstream Park Mile Stakes, 1 Mile Dirt

A compact but quality field lines up for this one-turn dirt mile for older horses. Knightsbridge (6) is the clear marquee horse, having dominated recent graded stakes at this distance and showing the ability to duel on the lead and still finish strongly. Mika (5), with back class at the highest level and a return to his preferred one-turn configuration, is a key secondary player who could make things interesting if he relaxes just off the pace. Flying Liam (2) is the primary upset candidate, with a stalking style that fits well behind several speed horses and recent form that suggests a career peak. Classic Of Course (4) and Bernin Hot (1) are capable veterans who may benefit if the early fractions get too hot.

Race 8 – Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 1/16 Miles Turf

This oversized turf allowance for older horses is deep and wide open. Tenacious Leader (1) brings strong form lines out of quality races and fits this level perfectly while benefiting from an inside draw that should secure a ground-saving stalking trip. Chapman's Peak (9), for a top trainer–jockey combo, shapes as a major player with the right tactical speed to stay in touch before unleashing a strong late run. Burnham Square (8), freshened and adding Lasix, represents a key secondary choice with upside at this distance. Dashman (10), a past graded winner over this course, and Pass The Hat (14), a consistent type from a top barn, add depth to the contender ranks. Longshot possibilities include He's Not Joking (12) and Seminole Chief (7), who both fit the stalker profile suited to Gulfstream turf routes.

Race 9 – Handicap, 1 Mile 70 Yards Synthetic

The Tapeta handicap for older horses features several pace types and a handful of capable stalkers. Horsepower (11), a last-out winner at similar conditions carrying top weight, is a leading contender despite the impost. Classic Mo Town (4) and Ciao Chuck (6) both had wide, compromising trips last time behind Horsepower and now Project better positioning; they stand as co-key contenders if the pace is Honest and they save more ground. Prevent (9) and Private Thoughts (12) comprise the main secondary group, each offering solid synthetic form and stalking styles suited to this configuration. Tomasello (1) and Brawn (8) are the longer-priced threats that could factor if the race shape or pace scenario shifts in their favor.

Race 10 – The Very One Stakes, 1 3/8 Miles Turf

This long-distance turf event for fillies and mares hinges on stamina and trip. Venencia (3) stands out as a potential controlling speed in a field lacking obvious front-runners and could Prove hard to pass if allowed to establish comfortable fractions. No Show Sammy Jo (9) returns to an optimal distance after a demanding 1½-mile effort and rates as a major late-running danger with the right setup. Candy Quest (4) brings tactical versatility and the right blend of class and staying power to sit near the pace and respond when asked. Gallant Greta (1), For Flying (5), and Dona Clota (6) form the main secondary tier, each possessing enough staying ability and class to pick up pieces in a strongly run race.

Race 11 – Davona Dale Stakes, 1 Mile Dirt

The Davona Dale for three-year-old fillies is led by On Time Girl (9), the reigning local star coming off a convincing Forward Gal victory whose outside draw and stalking style are ideally suited to the one-turn mile. Imperatrice (5), who chased her home last time, is an obvious main rival who should appreciate the added distance and may turn the tables with a more efficient trip. She Be Smooth (8), a sharp debut winner whose form was flattered by a dominant next-out winner from that race, projects as an important new face in the division with true win potential. Swing Vote (7) and Haute Diva (6) are the leading secondary contenders, both holding prior local stakes or allowance form that fits in this spot and enough tactical speed to stay out of trouble early.

Race 12 – Honey Fox Stakes, 1 Mile Turf

In the Honey Fox, Movin’ On Up (6) and Lush Lips (9) share top billing in a competitive turf mile for older fillies and mares. Movin’ On Up exits a strong effort against top company at a longer trip and now cuts back in distance with a more favorable draw, making her a prime stalker-type threat. Lush Lips, a Grade 1 winner returning from a break, brings the most impressive resume and figures to be heavily bet if she appears sharp in the paddock. Crevalle d’Oro (10) has been remarkably consistent and proved capable of competing with this class level, giving her a key secondary role. Souper Zonda (2), Classic Q (3), and Queens Command (7) are all logical underneath types that can capitalize if any of the top trio fail to fire.

Race 13 – Mac Diarmida Stakes, 1 3/8 Miles Turf

The Mac Diarmida assembles a deep field of long-distance turf specialists. Layabout (3) comes in off a signature victory in the McKnight, demonstrating both versatility and staying power, and is a central win candidate again. Anegada (6), a recent graded winner at 1½ miles, is a progressive long-distance runner who is ideally suited to this distance and course configuration. Grand Sonata (5), a millionaire with strong prior Gulfstream form, returns from a short break and retains enough class to be a major factor if he returns sharp. Dancin in Da’nile (4) and Without (2) serve as important secondary players who can take advantage of any missteps among the top trio, while Zverev (7) offers a longer-priced alternative from a barn with a strong record in this race.

Race 14 – Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes, 1 1/16 Miles Dirt

The Fountain of Youth brings together one of the strongest three-year-old fields of the season to date. Commandment (4) is the leading contender, combining a Powerful last-out effort in the Mucho Macho Man with a perfect stalk-and-pounce style that meshes ideally with today’s projected hot pace and the two-turn Gulfstream dirt profile. Napoleon Solo (7), the lone Grade 1 winner in the field with a big Champagne score, is the fastest horse on paper but must overcome a layoff, two-turn debut, and expected pace pressure from multiple inside and outside rivals. Jackson Hole (1) enters as the only runner with a two-turn win, benefits from the advantageous rail draw, and fits perfectly as a value-laden primary contender tracking the speed from just behind the front line. Chief Wallabee (6) and Solitude Dude (10) are the most intriguing runner-up-level prospects, their top efforts fast enough to compete but with questions about experience and distance respectively. Bravaro (5) and Talkin (3) round out a deep secondary group that could deliver a surprise if the favorites fail to move forward as expected.