Santa Anita Park – Pick Pony Handicapper Report & Tip Sheet – News and Analysis for the February 27, 2026 card

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Santa Anita Park opens a new three-day racing week on Friday, February 27, 2026, with an attractive nine-race card beginning at 12:30 PM Pacific Time. The card features a varied mix of conditions spanning maiden claimers, starter allowances, allowance optional claiming events, and a maiden special weight headliner in Race 8. The most significant draw for horseplayers today is the massive $198,741 two-day carryover in the $2 Pick 6, which begins with Race 4 and concludes with the nightcap in Race 9. Officials expect the total Pick 6 pool to exceed $1.3 million, making it one of the largest pools of the winter meet. There is also a $69,685 carryover in the $1 Sunset Pick 6 connecting the final three races from both Santa Anita and Gulfstream Park.

The card features five turf races (Races 1, 3, 5, 7, and 9) with the rail set at 20 feet for all grass events, and four dirt races (Races 2, 4, 6, and 8). Orange Thunder (PP 98, Race 5) has been scratched. Additionally, several horses appear on scratch watch due to veterinarian holds, including Deep Blue (Race 2), Itsnotrocket (Race 4), Green Zone and Just A Kiss (Race 5), and Nesso's Lastharrah (Race 7). Players should monitor late scratches closely, as any changes could significantly alter field dynamics and wagering strategies.

Weather and Track Conditions

Friday's forecast for Arcadia calls for sunny skies with a high temperature near 90 degrees Fahrenheit and a low of 59 degrees. Winds will be light at approximately 2 mph from the southwest, with humidity around 42% and a dew point near 48 degrees. This is an unusually warm late-February day, even by Southern California standards, and no precipitation is expected.​

The dry, warm conditions should produce a fast dirt surface and firm turf. Santa Anita installed a synthetic all-weather training track last March, which has been instrumental in maintaining conditioning schedules during the rainy early portion of the meet. With recent dry weather and temperatures climbing into the upper 80s and low 90s, the main dirt track should be labeled fast and the turf course firm. These conditions generally favor speed-oriented runners on dirt and allow the turf to play true to form.​

Track Bias and Post Position Analysis

Santa Anita is not widely known for a pronounced track bias, though specific tendencies emerge at different distances and surfaces.​

On dirt sprints (5.5 furlongs through 7 furlongs), front-runners racing on or close to the pace win at a dominant 56% clip, while closers coming from four or more lengths off the pace manage only 9% of wins. Post positions play fairly in dirt sprints. Seven-furlong races are even more speed-favoring, with none won by closers during the most recent meet data.​

Dirt routes at one mile show a similar speed-friendly profile: horses on or near the lead win 51% of the time, stalkers from 1-4 lengths back win 36%, and closers prevail in just 13% of routes. This is critical for today's card, as Races 4 and 8 are contested at one mile on dirt.​

On the turf at one mile (Races 1, 3, 5, and 9), the average field is nearly eight runners, and post positions play fairly. The biggest bias is a disadvantage for closers, who won only 19% of turf miles. Speed and stalking types outperform. Notably, post position 1 on the turf course produces the highest winning percentage of any post at 17.8%, making the rail a viable place to run.

For turf sprints at six furlongs on the flat course (Race 7 today), the track plays relatively fair across running styles and post positions, though closers from more than four lengths off the pace won just 22%. Posts outside position 6 managed just 14% of wins in downhill turf sprints with large fields, though today's Race 7 appears to be run on the flat course rather than downhill.​


Race 1 — Maiden Claiming, 1 1/8 Miles Turf, Purse $35,000

Post Time: 12:30 PM PT

This is a maiden claiming event at a $50,000 tag for three-year-old fillies going 1 1/8 miles on the turf with a field of ten. The stretch-out to nine furlongs makes stamina a premium commodity and provides an opportunity for closers to inherit a contested pace, though overall turf routing data favors speed and stalkers.

Pace Analysis

The pace scenario should feature Photogenic (PP 2) and Springline (PP 9) as the primary speed, with Heavenly Belle (PP 6) also showing some front-running tendencies. The distance stretch to 1 1/8 miles should test the stamina of these early types, potentially setting up a scenario where stalkers and mid-pack runners inherit a hot pace.​

Key Contenders

Channel Place (PP 7) is the selection as the best bet of the card by one prominent handicapper. The Doug O'Neill filly drops in for a first-time claiming tag on a quick turnaround after finishing fifth just six days ago, where she broke a step slow after hitting the gate. O'Neill's barn has produced a 32% strike rate with turf route maiden special weight to maiden claiming runners at Santa Anita over the past five years. The filly showed a closing kick last out and should relish the added distance. Emisael Jaramillo retains the mount and sits third in the meet jockey standings with 21 wins.

Can't Say That (PP 1) exits a sharp runner-up finish on dirt at Del Mar off a voided claim on November 22. She adds Lasix this afternoon and draws the advantageous rail on the turf. The switch to grass is a mild concern, but trainer George Papaprodromou is clicking at a 22% win rate this meet. Florent Geroux rides and has been effective at 14% wins from limited turf mounts.

Velvet Lilly (PP 5) has shown improvement in three career starts, finishing third in a turf mile last out and showing a stalking style that fits the track profile. Italian rider Mirco Demuro picks up the mount for trainer John Sadler, who brings a 33% ITM rate this winter. One handicapping outlet selected her as the top pick in this race.

Secondary Choices

Photogenic (PP 2) has improved Beyer figures in each subsequent start for trainer Leonard Powell. She ran a solid fourth when dropped to this level on January 23, getting hemmed in traffic late before finishing well. Lasix goes on for the third time in the current form cycle, and she figures to be prominent early on the turf.​

Springline (PP 9) has the most experience in the field with ten career starts, producing two runner-up finishes. She was second last time going a mile on turf and has some front-running speed that could carry further at the stretch-out. Trainer Ryan Hanson has been sharp at 25% wins from limited starts.​

Longshots

Split (PP 10) finished last in her most recent start going a mile on turf, but switches to the Tim Yakteen barn and gets Antonio Fresu aboard. At 10-1 morning line, she offers some exotic value if she can improve on the stretch-out. Ibiza Flavor (PP 4) at 30-1 appears overmatched based on recent form.

Selections

Win: 7 Channel Place

Place: 1 Can't Say That

Show: 5 Velvet Lilly

Betting strategy: A small win/place wager on Channel Place at 9/2 morning line offers a fair price for the best bet selection. Use 7, 1, 5, and 2 in exacta and trifecta boxes. Include 9 Springline as a fourth option for trifecta and superfecta coverage.


Race 2 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,000

Post Time: 1:02 PM PT

A short five-horse field of fillies and mares, four years old and up, sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on the dirt for a $10,000 claiming tag. Speed is king in Santa Anita dirt sprints, with front-runners and pressers winning at a combined rate exceeding 56%. Note that Deep Blue (PP 2) appears on scratch watch for a veterinary hold.​

Pace Analysis

Willow Cove (PP 1) and Deep Blue (PP 2) both show early speed and should contest the pace from inside posts. With just five runners entered, the early fractions may be moderate unless one of these two decides to sprint clear. The short field and sprint distance heavily favor speed horses.

Key Contenders

Deep Blue (PP 2) takes a massive class drop from a $50,000 tag to today's $10,000 level after facing significantly tougher opponents in her last three starts. She won her debut impressively and has run main track Beyer figures that are the swiftest in this field. One Thorograph analyst named her the best bet of the entire card. The concern is the size of the drop — which could be suspicious — and the veterinary scratch watch. If she runs, she should dominate. Armando Ayuso rides.​

Willow Cove (PP 1) goes turf to dirt on a class drop for trainer Blaine Wright and figures to establish the early lead from the rail with an alert break. The six-year-old mare has run equally well on dirt and turf from limited lifetime tries and brings the best last-race Thorograph number in the field. Tiago Pereira rides.

Secondary Choices

Booster Club (PP 4) exits a runner-up finish at this level last out, demonstrating she fits the class. Her last three Thorograph numbers have been solid, and she has a touch of class. Kazushi Kimura, the meet's leading rider with 24 wins and a 21% strike rate, picks up the mount.

Longshots

Pretty Cecy (PP 5) at 8-1 and Crypto Crush (PP 3) at 10-1 appear significantly outclassed. Both would need dramatic improvement or a pace meltdown to contend.

Selections

Win: 2 Deep Blue (if not scratched; 1 Willow Cove if scratched)

Place: 1 Willow Cove

Show: 4 Booster Club

Betting strategy: If Deep Blue runs, this is a strong single in multi-race wagers. A straight win bet at the low 6/5 morning line is not ideal for value, so consider keying Deep Blue on top of Willow Cove and Booster Club in exactas. If Deep Blue scratches, pivot to Willow Cove as a win play.


Race 3 — Starter Allowance, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $29,000

Post Time: 1:34 PM PT

A starter allowance for four-year-olds and up who have started for a $16,000 or less claiming price, going one mile on the turf with a field of seven. Six of these seven runners exit the same January 30 turf allowance starter event, making recent form comparisons relatively straightforward.

Pace Analysis

Please Focus (PP 5) went gate-to-wire for an 11-1 upset in the January 30 race and should attempt the same tactics today. However, he faces considerably more pace pressure this afternoon with So I'm Told (PP 2) and Brutto (PP 1) also capable of showing early speed. The projected pace battle sets up a potential closer-friendly scenario for the stretch-runners.

Key Contenders

Trusty Rusty (PP 4) rallied for the place spot in the January 30 race from a tough position, running out of racetrack in the stretch. He sports the field's best late pace figure and overall Thorograph numbers that are simply superior to the rest. Florent Geroux picks up the mount for trainer Robert Hess Jr., whose 18% win rate and 50% ITM mark this meet are impressive from limited starters. He rarely misfires and deserves top billing.

Please Focus (PP 5) demonstrated he can control this turf course when given the lead, as evidenced by his 12-4-3-0 career record over this grass course. The question is whether he can duplicate that front-running effort against stronger pace pressure. Armando Ayuso rides for Steve Knapp.​

Secondary Choices

So I'm Told (PP 2) looks best of the rest based on overall form and is the top pick from one algorithmic model. Maniatic (PP 6) returns to the turf where he was a stakes winner overseas and figures to rally late if the pace materializes as expected.

Longshots

Mongolian Apple (PP 7) at 20-1 morning line has little recent form to suggest competitiveness. Brutto (PP 1) at 12-1 has shown occasional speed but may lack the quality needed at this level.

Selections

Win: 4 Trusty Rusty

Place: 5 Please Focus

Show: 6 Maniatic

Betting strategy: Trusty Rusty at 7/5 morning line may be vulnerable if the pace collapses, making a straight win bet less appealing at short odds. Consider an exacta box of 4, 5, and 6 with Trusty Rusty on top for a modest investment.


Race 4 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $21,000

Post Time: 2:04 PM PT

The opening leg of the $198,741 Pick 6 carryover is a five-horse California-bred maiden claiming event at a $20,000 tag going one mile on the dirt. The dirt route profile at Santa Anita strongly favors speed, with front-runners and pressers combining for 87% of wins at one mile. This is the weakest field on the card, graded as the most uncertain leg of the Pick 6 sequence by multiple handicappers. Note that Itsnotrocket (PP 4) is on scratch watch.

Pace Analysis

Bandolero (PP 1) and Bossing Mo (PP 2) both figure to seek prominent early position, which could set up a speed duel up front. If they engage each other early, it could set the table for Oswald (PP 5) to rally from a stalking position. Tonys Fever (PP 3) has shown a front-running style at longer distances but may lack the quality to compete here.​

Key Contenders

Bandolero (PP 1) stretches back out to a mile, where he ran his career-best effort two starts back, flashing good speed before tiring to fourth. The three-year-old gelding drops again for new conditioner Steve Knapp (8 wins, 12% win rate this meet), adds Lasix, and draws the inside post. Knapp has been effective with claimers, and the class relief and distance reversion make this one the deserving morning line favorite at 7/5.

Oswald (PP 5) ships in from Turf Paradise off a rallying second on January 26 and fired a sharp five-furlong bullet workout in 58.4 seconds since that last run. Trainer Don Schnell is 3-for-9 when shipping into Santa Anita, producing a $2.31 ROI. Tyler Baze rides. While the class question remains, one data model rates Oswald as the highest win probability horse in the field at 36%.

Secondary Choices

Bossing Mo (PP 2) adds blinkers and drops to a career-low claiming tag. He ran an OK third in his main track debut on January 18 and is likely to set the pace on the stretch-out. The Jeff Bonde trainee gets a five-pound weight break with apprentice Alfredo Bautista aboard. He carries the best sprint debut final time rating but faces questions about stamina at two turns.​

Longshots

Tonys Fever (PP 3) at 6-1 has experience at longer distances with 11 career starts but remains a maiden with zero wins. Itsnotrocket (PP 4) at 5-1 is on veterinary scratch watch and has only two career starts.

Selections

Win: 1 Bandolero

Place: 5 Oswald

Show: 2 Bossing Mo

Betting strategy: This is a spread race in the Pick 6. Use all three contenders (1, 5, 2) on the main ticket. If constructing a budget Pick 6 ticket, the 1 and 2 are the minimum necessary pair. Exactas keying 1 and 5 over the field offer value.​


Race 5 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $70,000

Post Time: 2:35 PM PT

The second leg of the Pick 6 is a California-bred allowance optional claiming event for fillies and mares at one mile on the turf. Orange Thunder (PP 98) has been scratched, and Lady Mendelssohn, Fibonaccis Ride, Green Zone, and Just a Kiss are all on the also-eligible or scratch watch list. The remaining field shapes up as competitive with projected hot early fractions.​

Pace Analysis

Mayacama (PP 2) has pressing speed and should be forwardly placed from an inside draw. California Rocks (PP 4) and Fibonaccis Ride (PP 5, if not scratched) also show early speed. The projected pace is hot, which may set up closers like She's A Joker (PP 6) and Quantum Innergy (PP 1). At one mile on turf, midpack runners historically win 41% of the time, while rear runners win just 5.9%.​

Key Contenders

Mayacama (PP 2) has been remarkably consistent, finishing first or second in six of her last seven starts and posting a stellar 13-4-5-1 career mark. The Jeff Mullins trainee has a front-running/pressing style that fits the one-mile turf profile perfectly, and the inside post should allow her to work out an economical trip. The two-for-two jockey-trainer combination with her regular rider adds confidence, though her regular jockey (Juan Hernandez) is not on today's card, with Emisael Jaramillo taking over. Multiple handicappers rank her as the most probable winner.​

She's A Joker (PP 6) has three wins over this course and makes her second start off a freshening for trainer Peter Miller. The seven-year-old mare has been at the mercy of pace dynamics in recent starts but should relish a hot pace scenario. She has the highest tipster consensus among one community of handicappers.

Quantum Innergy (PP 1) consistently produces a strong late rally from the back of the pack and draws the advantageous rail post, which has historically been the most productive post on the Santa Anita turf. However, she is winless dating back to the start of 2024 and has lost 12 straight. If the pace is as hot as projected, she could be the one making the final move.

Secondary Choices

Pavel's Etoile (PP 9) at 12-1 morning line offers value as a lightly raced four-year-old for the Antonio Garcia barn with Florent Geroux aboard. Mendelssohns Angel (PP 3) at 20-1 brings question marks but Abel Lezcano rides for Brendan Galvin.

Longshots

California Rocks (PP 4) at 30-1 and Ryan's Girl (PP 11) at 30-1 are extreme longshots who would need a significant pace collapse or dramatic form reversal.

Selections

Win: 2 Mayacama

Place: 6 She's a Joker

Show: 1 Quantum Innergy

Betting strategy: Mayacama is a viable single in the Pick 6 for budget players. For wider tickets, pair her with She's a Joker and Quantum Innergy. In standalone wagers, an exacta box of 2, 6, and 1 captures the most likely outcomes.​


Race 6 — Claiming, 5 1/2 Furlongs Dirt, Purse $20,000

Post Time: 3:05 PM PT

A $10,000 claiming sprint for non-winners of three lifetime at 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. The front-runners and pressers dominate at this distance, winning roughly 56% of dirt sprints at Santa Anita. The six-horse field features several horses with tactical speed.​

Pace Analysis

Tiger Fire (PP 3) is the speediest horse in the field and should establish the early lead. Toulouse Detrac (PP 5) and Eltonsingsanother (PP 6) also show some early speed, which could create a scenario where two or three are vying for position early. If Tiger Fire gets a clear lead, she may be very hard to catch. Multiple speed types could set things up for the stalking Maniae (PP 4).

Key Contenders

Tiger Fire (PP 3) heads back to Santa Anita after trying allowance competition at Los Alamitos, where she collected a win at the shorter distance. The Smiling Tiger filly broke her maiden by 3 3/4 lengths going six furlongs over this course three starts back and should control the tempo from start to finish. The Uranga barn has had a strong meet from limited starters. She is rated an almost certain winner but at a very short price (8/5 morning line or lower), making her a poor standalone wagering option.

Maniae (PP 4) finished a wide fifth in a decent effort against better company last out, where she was an overlay at 80-1. She drops back down to the $10,000 purchase level and makes her second start off the claim for trainer Gary Stute. A Thorograph analyst ranks her as the horse to beat based on raw numbers, including a 111 final time rating when she was second at Los Alamitos at this distance. Geovanni Franco rides.​​

Secondary Choices

Toulouse Detrac (PP 5) battled determinedly on the front end when finishing second against a pair of today's returning rivals on January 16 and makes her third start of the form cycle for the Papaprodromou barn. Eltonsingsanother (PP 6) at 4-1 has been consistent hitting the board from a mid-pack stalking style.​

Longshots

Coralgableskaylin (PP 1) at 5-1 and Bottom Dollar (PP 2) at 10-1 have less recent form that fits this specific condition.

Selections

Win: 4 Maniae

Place: 3 Tiger Fire

Show: 5 Toulouse Detrac

Betting strategy: Tiger Fire is likely to be a very heavy favorite and an unappealing standalone play. The value lies in taking a stand against her. If using in the Pick 6, Tiger Fire and Maniae as a two-horse spread is the most cost-effective approach. In standalone wagers, key Maniae on top of Tiger Fire in an exacta at a price.​


Race 7 — Allowance Optional Claiming, 6 Furlongs Turf, Purse $71,000

Post Time: 3:35 PM PT

A quality second-level allowance optional claiming event at six furlongs on the flat turf course with a competitive ten-horse field. This distance on the flat turf course plays fairly for front-runners, pressers, and midpack runners, with rear runners winning just 16%. Note that Nesso's Lastharrah (PP 1) is on veterinary scratch watch.​

Pace Analysis

The pace could develop with several horses showing early speed including Dhitjari (PP 5), Charlie's To Blame (PP 9), and Proof He Rides (PP 2). The multiple speed types may set up a scenario where the race unfolds favorably for horses with a pressing or mid-pack stalking style. The closers Son Of A Birch (PP 10) and Cuban Confusion (PP 6) need an honest pace to have their best chance.

Key Contenders

Son Of A Birch (PP 10) makes his second start at Santa Anita after a solid third in a slightly longer turf event last month with a less-than-ideal trip. The six-year-old Temple City gelding moves to a favorable outside draw and gets Florent Geroux, whose record at the meet includes a 50% win rate from recent rides for trainer Robert Falcone Jr.. One prominent handicapper called this a Grade B play with Son of a Birch as the main ticket horse. He tops the field's fire number and speed figures.​

Proof He Rides (PP 2) co-tops the field's best last-out turf Beyer of 88 off a 10-1 upset downhill win back on December 28 over a large field. The eight-year-old veteran gelding is an impressive 4-3-0-1 over Santa Anita turf and has a pressing style that fits the track profile perfectly for Jeff Mullins. Kyle Frey rides.​

Nesso's Lastharrah (PP 1) was beaten by double digits in his last two starts but takes a significant class plunge and shortens back to six furlongs, where he is 2-for-2. A recent three-furlong bullet blowout in 35 seconds flat indicates readiness. If he clears the scratch watch, he is a serious contender for the Peter Eurton barn.​

Secondary Choices

Cuban Confusion (PP 6) has hit the board in all seven starts since arriving from Europe for Philip D'Amato and brings consistent late-running form. He has been freshened since his one-mile win on October 4 and has been training sharply. Kazushi Kimura, the meet's leading rider, picks up the mount.

Charlie's To Blame (PP 9) cuts back to one turn for the Eurton barn and could be rolling late as a backup to stablemate Nesso's Lastharrah. Antonio Fresu rides.​

Longshots

Fomo Joe (PP 7) is a first-time gelding returning off a layoff for Ryan Hanson. Supersonic Blue (PP 4) has tactical ability but returns from a trip to Saratoga and may need a race.

Selections

Win: 10 Son of a Birch

Place: 2 Proof He Rides

Show: 6 Cuban Confusion

Betting strategy: This is one of the most competitive races on the card and a potential bomb in the Pick 6. Using Son of a Birch, Proof He Rides, and Cuban Confusion as a three-horse spread covers the most likely outcomes. In standalone exactas, key 10 over 2, 6, and 1.


Race 8 — Maiden Special Weight, 1 Mile Dirt, Purse $70,000

Post Time: 4:05 PM PT

The card's signature race is a maiden special weight at one mile on dirt for three-, four-, and five-year-olds with a $70,000 purse. Older horses carry 126 pounds while the three-year-olds get in at 118 pounds. The dirt route profile heavily favors speed and pressers (87% combined). Bob Baffert has two strong entrants.​

Pace Analysis

Latitude (PP 1) has shown a front-running style and could establish early position from the rail. Winston Ave (PP 2) stretches out to two turns after two sprint races and may need to settle into a stalking position. Cherokee Nation (PP 3) has shown a closing kick in his route tries. The pace could be moderate, which would favor Latitude and Winston Ave.

Key Contenders

Cherokee Nation (PP 3) drops out of the Robert B. Lewis (G3) Stakes back into the maiden ranks for Bob Baffert, the meet's second-leading trainer at a 28% win rate. The $1.15 million Keeneland September 2024 purchase by Not This Time ran well enough to beat this group two starts back and just missed in two route maiden efforts, finishing second both times at one mile at Santa Anita with final time ratings of 119. Emisael Jaramillo picks up the mount. One analyst singled this colt as his main ticket horse for this leg of the Pick 6, willing to fade the morning line favorite.​

Winston Ave (PP 2) adds Lasix on the stretch-out for Baffert after two sprint starts. He earned a strong 128 final time rating in his debut before disappointing second time out from an inside post. He has been training swiftly off a two-month freshening, including a bullet five-furlong drill in 59.1 seconds on February 7. The Quality Road colt is bred to relish two turns. Florent Geroux is three-for-five with the Baffert barn.​​

Latitude (PP 1) returns to dirt after a solid runner-up turf finish on February 13 for Sadler. The Candy Ride colt posted a 92 dirt Beyer in his debut last September and looms as a big threat if he can reproduce that number. He has finished in the money in most starts and has a speed-pressing style that fits the one-mile dirt profile. Antonio Fresu rides.​

Secondary Choices

Eruption (PP 6) has placed in two of five starts going a mile on dirt and represents the Michael McCarthy barn. Kazushi Kimura, the meet's leading rider, gets aboard. At 8-1 morning line, he offers value if the Baffert pair and Latitude engage in a pace battle.​

Fausto (PP 7) at 12-1 gets Hall of Famer Mike E. Smith aboard for Robert Hess Jr. The five-year-old gelding has 11 career starts without a win but carries $237,600 in career earnings and produced respectable numbers in his better efforts.​

Longshots

Attack Now (PP 5) at 30-1 is a significant class and form question mark, having finished sixth in his last two starts.

Selections

Win: 3 Cherokee Nation

Place: 2 Winston Ave

Show: 1 Latitude

Betting strategy: Baffert may have this race surrounded with the 2 and 3. In the Pick 6, using both Baffert runners is advisable. A budget approach singles Winston Ave, while a spread approach adds Cherokee Nation and Latitude. In standalone wagers, an exacta box of 3, 2, and 1 covers the top tier.​


Race 9 — Maiden Claiming, 1 Mile Turf, Purse $35,000

Post Time: 4:35 PM PT

The final leg of the Pick 6 is a full twelve-horse maiden claiming event at $50,000 for three-year-olds going one mile on the turf. The large field and maiden claiming conditions make this a wide-open affair with significant upset potential.

Pace Analysis

The pace projects as moderate with no single dominant speed horse. Biggiebiggiebiggie (PP 4) has enough positional speed to sit in midpack and make a late move. Nezha (PP 2) and Saturday (PP 1) may show some early speed. The large field and turf course suggest that horses with stalking or midpack styles have the best chance, while deep closers face the 5.9% rear-runner win rate at this distance.​

Key Contenders

Biggiebiggiebiggie (PP 4) makes career start number nine but his second try at the $50,000 maiden claiming level after rallying for second over a pair of today's returning rivals on January 30. He sports the field's best last-out turf Beyer of 72 and the best overall figures across the board including an 86 fire number, 127 CPR, and 128 final time rating. The son of Maclean's Music finished up well in 23.6 seconds, clearly the best finisher in recent races. Emisael Jaramillo rides for Doug O'Neill.​​

Keagman (PP 10) was forced to chase the lone speed winner Classico in his last start and was actually outperformed by Biggiebiggiebiggie despite finishing behind him at the wire. He has had plenty of chances with eight starts, but his most recent was his first with blinkers against maiden claimers. He is a must-use in the Pick 6 at 7/2 morning line. Edwin Maldonado rides for George Papaprodromou.​

Prime Artist (PP 7) drops in for a first-time tag after racing against the flow against protected maidens on January 25. The French-bred import finished fifth behind next-out winner Charlie's Curlin and should find this group more to his liking. Leonard Powell trains.​

Secondary Choices

Nezha (PP 2) was tenth and last behind several of these on December 29, but adds Lasix today on the class drop into maiden claimers for Bob Baffert. With Florent Geroux aboard and the Baffert reputation for improvement, he warrants respect at 6-1 morning line. Mendel's Tune (PP 8) gets a complete makeover today — removing blinkers, returning as a first-time gelding, second-time Lasix, and dropping into a first-time tag for Sadler.​

Longshots

Sands Of Time (PP 11) for D'Amato and Kimura has some appeal at 8-1. Azario (PP 5) for Mullins with Tyler Baze aboard is another lightly raced option at 10-1.

Selections

Win: 4 Biggiebiggiebiggie

Place: 10 Keagman

Show: 7 Prime Artist

Betting strategy: This race is wide open and offers the best opportunity for a Pick 6 bomb. Spread as widely as budget allows. On a minimum budget, Biggiebiggiebiggie is the single. Adding 10 Keagman, 7 Prime Artist, 2 Nezha, and 8 Mendel's Tune increases coverage significantly.​


Jockey Notes and Insights

Kazushi Kimura leads the jockey standings with 24 wins from 117 mounts at a 21% win rate and 51% in-the-money clip through February 20. He has been one of the breakout stories of the meet and rides in several races today including Booster Club (Race 2), Bottom Dollar (Race 6), Cuban Confusion (Race 7), Eruption (Race 8), Saturday (Race 9), and Sands Of Time (Race 9).

Emisael Jaramillo ranks third in the standings with 21 wins from 109 starts at a 19% win rate. He has a loaded book today with mounts in Race 1 (Channel Place, the best bet selection), Race 4 (Bandolero… wait, Jaramillo is on Channel Place in R1, and Biggiebiggiebiggie in R9), Race 5 (Mayacama), Race 7 (Nesso's Lastharrah), Race 8 (Cherokee Nation), and Race 9 (Biggiebiggiebiggie). His recent hot streak includes a 28% clip during stretches of peak riding.​

Florent Geroux brings national-caliber talent to multiple key mounts today, including Can't Say That (Race 1), Trusty Rusty (Race 3), Pavel's Etoile (Race 5), Son Of A Birch (Race 7), Winston Ave (Race 8), and Nezha (Race 9). His 14% win rate at the meet understates his ability, and his pairing with Son of a Birch for Robert Falcone Jr. (50% win rate together) is a marquee angle.​

Antonio Fresu has been riding at an impressive 13% win rate from the 10th position in the standings. His key mount today is Latitude (Race 8) for John Sadler. He also rides Split (Race 1), Lady Mendelssohn (Race 5), and Charlie's To Blame (Race 7).​

Armando Ayuso is fourth in the standings with 16 wins from 130 mounts. He has significant volume but a lower win percentage at 12%. Today he rides Photogenic (Race 1), Deep Blue (Race 2), Please Focus (Race 3), Just A Kiss (Race 5), and Dhitjari (Race 7).​

Trainer Notes and Insights

Bob Baffert leads all trainers with a 28% win rate and an extraordinary 61% in-the-money mark from 54 starters this meet. He saddles two runners in Race 8 — Winston Ave and Cherokee Nation — effectively surrounding the maiden special weight. His record with maiden runners stretching out and adding Lasix is among the best in the sport.​

Doug O'Neill tops the trainer standings by volume with 20 wins from 83 starts at a 24% win rate. He sends out Channel Place (Race 1, the best bet selection) and Biggiebiggiebiggie (Race 9). His record with turf route maiden special weight to maiden claiming drops at Santa Anita is 7-for-22 (32%) over the past five years, making Channel Place a strong angle play.

Jeff Mullins has been effective at 24% wins from 45 starters this meet. He saddles Mayacama (Race 5) and Proof He Rides (Race 7), both logical contenders in their respective races. The Mullins-Hernandez jockey-trainer combination has been two-for-two, though Hernandez is not riding today.​

George Papaprodromou has been a quiet force at 22% wins and 54% ITM from 59 starters. He trains Can't Say That (Race 1), Toulouse Detrac (Race 6), and Keagman (Race 9). Steve Knapp has accumulated 8 wins from 66 starters and trains Bandolero (Race 4), the morning line favorite in the opening Pick 6 leg.​

Philip D'Amato, who won his eighth Santa Anita training title during the autumn meet, brings Cuban Confusion (Race 7) and Sands Of Time (Race 9) to the card. His European shippers and turf specialists are always dangerous at the Great Race Place, and Cuban Confusion's consistency since arriving from overseas is notable.​

John Sadler, closing in on 3,000 career wins in North America, has key runners in Velvet Lilly (Race 1), Latitude (Race 8), and Mendel's Tune (Race 9). His 33% ITM rate at the meet keeps his runners honest across conditions.​

Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays

The $198,741 Pick 6 carryover starting with Race 4 is the marquee wagering opportunity of the day. With the pool expected to exceed $1.3 million, players can approach this in several ways:​

Budget Ticket ($16): Race 4: 1, 2 / Race 5: 2 / Race 6: 3, 4 / Race 7: 2, 6 / Race 8: 2 / Race 9: 4. This budget approach singles Mayacama in Race 5, Winston Ave in Race 8, and Biggiebiggiebiggie in Race 9 while spreading the more contentious races.​

Medium Ticket ($48-$96): Race 4: 1, 2, 5 / Race 5: 2, 6 / Race 6: 3, 4 / Race 7: 2, 6, 10 / Race 8: 2, 3 / Race 9: 4, 10. Adding Oswald in Race 4, She's a Joker in Race 5, Son of a Birch in Race 7, Cherokee Nation in Race 8, and Keagman in Race 9 provides meaningful coverage for the price.

The late Pick 5 (Races 5-9) also deserves attention. On carryover days the Pick 5 pool typically inflates alongside the Pick 6, creating additional value opportunities.​

Single-race value plays to consider:

Race 1: Channel Place (PP 7) at 9/2 morning line as the consensus best bet is the top value play on the card. The O'Neill trainer pattern (32% with this type of drop) and the quick turnaround angle make this a quality win bet.​

Race 6: Maniae (PP 4) at 3-1 morning line against the likely heavy favorite Tiger Fire offers the best upset chance in a race graded as having a “probable winner at odds too short to play”.​

Race 7: Son Of A Birch (PP 10) at 7/2 morning line offers fair value in a competitive field. The Geroux/Falcone combination at a 50% win rate is a powerful hidden angle.​

Race 9: Prime Artist (PP 7) at 5-1 morning line is an intriguing class dropper with a European pedigree in a race where the 3-1 morning line favorite (Biggiebiggiebiggie) has had eight chances already. If fading the favorite, Prime Artist and Keagman (PP 10) at 7/2 offer the best alternatives.​

The Sunset Pick 6 connecting the last three Santa Anita races with the last three Gulfstream races also carries a $69,685 carryover and merits consideration for players comfortable handicapping both tracks.​

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