Pick Pony Weekly Picks Recap — October 5, 2024

AI Picks Performance This Week

What a week it was for Pick Pony's AI system! Across our full suite of algorithms, our models analyzed 664 races and delivered consistently strong results from coast to coast. Leading the charge, our AI Best Bets notched an outstanding 70.1% in-the-money rate, with the top pick winning at an impressive 36.7% — a figure that clears the morning-line chalk baseline of 33.2%, meaning our AI is already outrunning the crowd's favorite just by identifying its top selection. Our workhorse models — Algo 3 (AI Win Probability, morning update) and Experimental Weight Set 2 (morning update) — each cracked the 197–203 win threshold across settled races, posting win rates of 32.8% and 31.8% respectively, while racking up deep exotic coverage with trifecta hits and boxed trifecta totals climbing into the 50s and 60s. The Algo 2 (AI Ensemble, morning update) also delivered a standout week, recording 20 trifecta hits and 64 boxed trifecta hits — exceptional numbers for exotic players looking to build tickets. With 27 races still pending across most models, those final results could push several algorithms even higher when all is settled.

Standout Wins

The highlight reel this week is loaded. CHI CHI TIME (ML 10-1) at Canterbury Downs on October 3rd was the consensus star of the week — flagged as a top pick by every single algorithm in our suite, a remarkable show of cross-model conviction that paid off beautifully at a juicy 10-1 morning line. Not far behind, SEA RIDE (ML 10-1) at Indiana on September 30th was identified by Algo 1, Experimental Weight Set 2, and Weight Set 3, proving our models were locked in on that longshot well before post time. KIMMY GOT GLASSES (ML 12-1) at Delaware on October 2nd was a gem surfaced by the morning-update variants — a true overlay that rewarded sharp players willing to trust the data. On the Best Bets side, FOOTNOTE (ML 6-1) at Belterra Park on September 30th highlighted the value our AI finds beyond the chalk, while Guy Smiley (ML 4-1) at Keeneland on October 4th showed up across nearly every model — a well-earned consensus that crossed the wire first at one of the most competitive meets in the country. Rounding out the headline acts: Carmensita (ML 8-1) at Belmont, JORDANS DEAL (ML 6-1) at Indiana, and BOURBON DREAM (ML 10-1) at Delaware were all multi-model hits that underscore just how well our AI is identifying value beyond the obvious favorites.

Key Insights

A few clear themes emerged from this week's data. First, our morning-update variants are consistently outperforming their base counterparts — across Algo 1, Weight Set 2, Weight Set 3, Algo 3, and Algo 2, the morning updates added meaningful wins and exotic hits, confirming that our real-time data integration in the hours before post is a genuine edge. If you're not already using the morning update picks, this week is a strong argument to make the switch part of your routine. Second, mid-range overlays in the 4-1 to 10-1 morning-line range continued to be our sweet spot — horse after horse in that window delivered wins, suggesting our models are especially sharp at identifying horses the public is undervaluing without venturing into pure longshot territory. Finally, the Algorithm Offtrack Ensemble delivered some of the most exciting longshot wins of the week — KIMMY GOT GLASSES (12-1), HOTLINE BLINK (12-1), and THREE SIXTY (10-1) — demonstrating that our off-track specialized model remains a powerful tool for players who like to take calculated shots at bigger prices, even as its overall win rate reflects the inherent volatility of that style.

Looking Ahead

With several exciting fall meets ramping up and 27 pending races still waiting to pad the final numbers, next week sets up as another tremendous opportunity for Pick Pony subscribers to find value across the board. Stay tuned — the algorithms are sharp, the angles are clear, and the ponies are running! 🏇

Weekly Performance Summary

How each pick source's top selection finished across every graded race this week.

Where our AI Ensemble picks finished this week

All 573 graded races the Algo 2 top pick ran in.

The bottom bar adds the first three together.

Show the numbers

Group	Win rate	Races
Won the race	31.9%	573
Finished 2nd	19.7%	573
Finished 3rd	14.5%	573
In the money	66.1%	573

Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta). Morning Update rows are the same picks re-ranked after the official scratches and surface changes were applied that morning.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)

Several independent AI models each rank the race; the horse they agree on most is the pick.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	182	31.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	113	19.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	83	14.5%
Top Pick ITM	378	66.1%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	43 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	44 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	14 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	51 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	196	32.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	119	19.4%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	89	14.5%
Top Pick ITM	404	66.0%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	52 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	49 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	20 (4%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	62 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)

An AI estimate of each horse's chance of winning, blended with the morning line; the most likely winner is the pick.

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	182	31.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	113	19.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	80	14.0%
Top Pick ITM	375	65.4%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	42 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	37 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	13 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	44 (9%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	202	32.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	118	19.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	84	13.6%
Top Pick ITM	404	65.4%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	57 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	42 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	19 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	57 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1

Our weighted rating: every horse is scored on speed, pace, class, form and connections, and the top score is the pick.

Algo 1 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	171	29.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	112	19.4%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	75	13.0%
Top Pick ITM	358	62.0%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	42 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	46 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	8 (2%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	47 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	180	29.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	118	19.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	78	12.7%
Top Pick ITM	376	61.0%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	46 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	52 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	16 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	57 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

AI Exacta

The top two horses in our exotics ordering, played as a $1 straight exacta.

AI Exacta Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	192	33.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	116	20.0%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	81	14.0%
Top Pick ITM	389	67.1%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (AI Exacta Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	41 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	46 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	11 (2%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	52 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	185	32.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	127	22.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	76	13.3%
Top Pick ITM	388	67.7%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	37 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	39 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	11 (2%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	47 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	196	31.8%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	133	21.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	81	13.1%
Top Pick ITM	410	66.6%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	41 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	42 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	17 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	57 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	180	31.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	115	19.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	84	14.5%
Top Pick ITM	379	65.6%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	39 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	45 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	14 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	55 (12%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	186	30.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	122	19.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	89	14.4%
Top Pick ITM	397	64.3%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	47 (8%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	49 (9%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	18 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	67 (12%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets

Ai Best Bets Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	326
Top Pick Wins (1st)	108	36.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	58	19.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	40	13.6%
Top Pick ITM	206	70.1%
Pending	6

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	0 (—)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	0 (—)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	0 (—)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	0 (—)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Offtrk Ens

Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	664
Top Pick Wins (1st)	129	23.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	107	19.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	80	14.5%
Top Pick ITM	316	57.5%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	25 (6%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	42 (10%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	5 (1%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	48 (11%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Today’s Best Bets (AI × Expert Alignment)

The horses published in each day's Today's Best Bets post: races where the AI top pick and the expert consensus top pick were the same horse, split by how many AI models agreed.

Agreement	Races graded	Won	2nd	3rd	Win %
All 3 AI models + experts	147	66	24	17	44.9%
2 of 3 AI models + experts	74	18	18	10	24.3%
1 of 3 AI models + experts	70	24	15	12	34.3%
All Best Bets	291	108	57	39	37.1%
Pending	72

AI Longshot Picks (Kelly Edge Plays)

Longshot picks are individual horses flagged at publication time: their morning-line odds were 8-1 or greater — prices the betting public considers unlikely to win — and the model's calibrated win probability said the price overpaid. Unlike the winner models above, a longshot is not a race's top-ranked horse, so these tables count selections, not races: every flagged horse is one bet, graded on its own finish, and a single race can contribute more than one. (For the same reason there is no exotic-hits table here — an exacta or trifecta needs a ranked 1-2-3 ticket, which a set of longshot flags does not define.) There is also one longshot table rather than one per algorithm: the flag depends only on the horse's price and its calibrated edge, never on where an algorithm ranked it, so all three models publish exactly the same longshot list. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition, win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and on the realised ROI in the Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator below rather than on raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance.

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

Metric	Count	Rate
Longshot Selections	275
Races Covered	178
Wins (1st)	12	5.3%
Places (2nd)	13	5.7%
Shows (3rd)	18	7.9%
ITM	43	18.9%
Pending	6

Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator

What a flat win bet on every flagged longshot would have returned this week at each minimum-edge threshold.

Each strategy below replays the past 60 days of AI longshot picks as actual $2 mutuel bets and reports the realised return. A longer window than the rest of this report is used here on purpose: longshots are rare and extremely high-variance, so a single week's results are dominated by luck — only over a larger sample do the calibrated edge strategies separate from simply betting every longshot. Bets are deduplicated by (track, race, horse) so a horse picked by all three algorithms generates one bet, not three. Edge strategies use a calibrated win probability (from the longshot meta-learner) and bet only when P(win) × decimal odds − 1 exceeds the listed threshold — these target overlays rather than long prices for their own sake. Hit% is the share of tickets that cashed any leg. Published longshots graded: 2257; wider 10/1-and-longer universe available to the edge rows: 14956, of which 14956 could be assigned a calibrated edge. Calibrator: out-of-sample tiered calibrator on the cross-race win probability (lgbm_win_prob_fwd), trained through 2026-08-05; edge rows replay only the 60 days after that date, so no graded race was ever seen by the calibrator. The edge filters use only leak-free forward scores (lgbm_win_prob_fwd — captured before each race ran), so the ROIs are a genuine out-of-sample estimate — never the in-sample re-scored values that previously inflated this section. The two families are measured differently — read them separately. The raw-filter rows grade the longshots we actually published, over the full 60 days. The edge rows sweep a different population: every thoroughbred runner priced at 10/1 or longer, published or not. That matters, because being published as a longshot already requires passing an edge test — so re-applying an edge threshold to the published picks would just re-filter an already-filtered group and tell you nothing. The edge rows also cover only the most recent 60 days (14956 runners), because everything before 2026-08-05 was needed to fit the calibrator and grading it would be marking its own homework. That window widens on its own as forward scores accumulate.

Strategy	Bets	Tickets Cashed	Stake	Payout
$2 WIN — all longshots	2257	122 (5.4%)	$4514.00	$2704.78
$2 PLACE — all longshots	2257	305 (13.5%)	$4514.00	$2987.22
$2 SHOW — all longshots	2257	501 (22.2%)	$4514.00	$2919.46
$2 WIN + $2 PLACE	2257	305 (13.5%)	$9028.00	$5692.00
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 15/1	1590	76 (4.8%)	$3180.00	$2069.10
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 20/1	1135	39 (3.4%)	$2270.00	$1296.18
$2 WIN — field ≥ 8	1679	84 (5.0%)	$3358.00	$2142.76
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 5%	8130	503 (6.2%)	$16260.00	$10959.66
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10%	7538	482 (6.4%)	$15076.00	$10270.50
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 20%	7457	477 (6.4%)	$14914.00	$10200.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 30%	4676	293 (6.3%)	$9352.00	$6859.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 40%	3451	221 (6.4%)	$6902.00	$4867.32
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 50%	3430	220 (6.4%)	$6860.00	$4855.32
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 60%	2695	182 (6.8%)	$5390.00	$4060.72
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 70%	1372	103 (7.5%)	$2744.00	$1676.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 80%	1362	103 (7.6%)	$2724.00	$1676.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 90%	1362	103 (7.6%)	$2724.00	$1676.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 100%	1362	103 (7.6%)	$2724.00	$1676.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10% AND field ≥ 8	4421	252 (5.7%)	$8842.00	$5838.58

Trifecta Structure Plays (AI Exotics)

The Trifecta line from each day's AI Exotics section: key the top pick to win over the next three horses (six combinations per race); the tag shows whether the race shape looked playable.

Each AI Predictions post suggests one trifecta structure per race: the Algo 3 top pick to win, with its next three ranked horses boxed for 2nd and 3rd (6 combinations). Races our race-shape model rates most favorable are tagged ⭐ Best Bet in the post. This table grades last week's published plays against the actual trifecta payoffs at each track's real wager minimum — no assumptions, no hindsight.

Plays graded	377
Trifectas hit	37 (9.8%)
Total staked	$1,509.60
Total returned	$792.72

262 race(s) skipped for scratches inside the top four; 25 skipped where the track's trifecta minimum wasn't recorded. Per-race wager minimums have been captured since July 4, 2026, so this ledger grows more complete each week.

Benchmark: The Morning-Line Favorite

What betting the morning-line favorite in every race would have returned: the baseline every pick source has to beat.

The simplest possible strategy is to always bet the morning-line favorite — the "chalk." This table shows how that baseline performed across the same thoroughbred races this week, so you can judge the AI's win rates against what the public's top choice delivered. Beating the chalk consistently is the real test of any handicapping model.

Metric	Count	Rate
Settled Races	686
Favorite Wins (1st)	228	33.2%
Favorite Places (2nd)	124	18.1%
Favorite Shows (3rd)	105	15.3%
Favorite ITM	457	66.6%

Consensus Expert Picks

Picks from more than twenty-five published handicappers, weighted into one consensus selection per race.

Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	645
Top Pick Wins (1st)	168	32.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	94	18.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	86	16.6%
Top Pick ITM	348	67.3%
Pending	128

Exotic Wager Hits (Consensus Top 3 Picks)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits (rate of playable races)	Description
Exacta	42 (11%)	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	29 (7%)	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	12 (3%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	40 (10%)	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Performance by Breed

The same results split by thoroughbred and quarter horse races, which are handicapped differently.

Top-pick win rates vary dramatically by breed. Thoroughbred (TB) racing is the most form-driven and predictable, while Quarter Horse (QH) and Arabian (AR) sprints are decided in a few hundred yards and are far more chaotic — they naturally produce lower win rates. Because the summary above blends all breeds together, this table separates them so each breed's true performance is visible. W/P/S are wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd), with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the In-The-Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX/BEX/TRI/BTRI are exacta, boxed-exacta, trifecta, and boxed-trifecta hits on the top picks. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one), and show dashes for the exotic columns because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket.

Thoroughbred

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	664	182 (32%)	113 (20%)	83 (15%)	378 (66%)	43 (9%)	44 (9%)	14 (3%)	51 (11%)
Algo 3 Winner	664	182 (32%)	113 (20%)	80 (14%)	375 (65%)	42 (9%)	37 (8%)	13 (3%)	44 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner	664	171 (30%)	112 (19%)	75 (13%)	358 (62%)	42 (9%)	46 (10%)	8 (2%)	47 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	664	185 (32%)	127 (22%)	76 (13%)	388 (68%)	37 (8%)	39 (8%)	11 (2%)	47 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	664	180 (31%)	115 (20%)	84 (15%)	379 (66%)	39 (8%)	45 (10%)	14 (3%)	55 (12%)
AI Longshot	275	12 (5%)	13 (6%)	18 (8%)	43 (19%)	—	—	—	—

Performance by Track

The same results split by track, to show where each source is strongest and weakest.

The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one) and show dashes in the exotic columns, because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket that a per-horse longshot flag does not define. Algo 1 is the weighted rating, Algo 2 the AI Ensemble and Algo 3 the AI Win Probability model — ordered by measured performance, so a higher number should be the stronger source; the Weight Set rows are experimental profiles graded as shadows. Comparing sources at a specific track helps identify which is strongest for that venue. The ML Favorite (chalk) row shows how the morning-line favorite performed in that track's thoroughbred races — the baseline any pick source needs to beat to be adding value at that venue.

AJX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	9	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

ALB

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Wed 9/30 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	27	6 (35%)	2 (12%)	4 (24%)	12 (71%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner	27	7 (41%)	1 (6%)	4 (24%)	12 (71%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (19%)
Algo 1 Winner	27	1 (6%)	3 (17%)	2 (11%)	6 (33%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	27	8 (44%)	0 (0%)	4 (22%)	12 (67%)	3 (20%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	27	6 (35%)	1 (6%)	3 (18%)	10 (59%)	3 (20%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	5	0 (0%)	2 (67%)	0 (0%)	2 (67%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	45	12 (34%)	3 (9%)	6 (17%)	21 (60%)	4 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (3%)	2 (6%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	18	8 (44%)	0 (0%)	4 (22%)	12 (67%)	—	—	—	—

ASD

AI Picks posts graded here: Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	14	7 (50%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	9 (64%)	3 (23%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner	14	8 (57%)	2 (14%)	1 (7%)	11 (79%)	3 (23%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)	2 (15%)
Algo 1 Winner	14	7 (50%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	9 (64%)	2 (15%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	14	7 (50%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)	9 (64%)	2 (15%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	14	8 (57%)	2 (14%)	0 (0%)	10 (71%)	3 (23%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)	1 (8%)
AI Longshot	2	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	14	8 (57%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	9 (64%)	2 (14%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	14	10 (71%)	2 (14%)	1 (7%)	13 (93%)	—	—	—	—

BEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/30 · Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	46	10 (24%)	9 (21%)	9 (21%)	28 (67%)	1 (3%)	3 (8%)	0 (0%)	3 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner	46	9 (21%)	10 (23%)	8 (19%)	27 (63%)	0 (0%)	2 (5%)	0 (0%)	3 (8%)
Algo 1 Winner	46	12 (28%)	5 (12%)	9 (21%)	26 (60%)	3 (9%)	1 (3%)	1 (3%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	46	11 (27%)	6 (15%)	9 (22%)	26 (63%)	2 (5%)	1 (3%)	1 (3%)	3 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	46	9 (20%)	4 (9%)	10 (23%)	23 (52%)	2 (6%)	2 (6%)	1 (3%)	6 (17%)
AI Longshot	26	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	20	2 (11%)	3 (16%)	7 (37%)	12 (63%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	46	12 (26%)	6 (13%)	11 (24%)	29 (63%)	—	—	—	—

BTP

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/30 · Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	9 (35%)	8 (31%)	4 (15%)	21 (81%)	2 (10%)	4 (19%)	0 (0%)	10 (48%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	7 (27%)	7 (27%)	6 (23%)	20 (77%)	1 (5%)	3 (15%)	0 (0%)	7 (35%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	11 (39%)	5 (18%)	4 (14%)	20 (71%)	4 (21%)	3 (16%)	2 (11%)	6 (32%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	12 (48%)	6 (24%)	6 (24%)	24 (96%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	6 (30%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	11 (41%)	6 (22%)	6 (22%)	23 (85%)	2 (10%)	4 (19%)	2 (10%)	7 (33%)
AI Longshot	4	1 (25%)	2 (50%)	0 (0%)	3 (75%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	14 (50%)	6 (21%)	5 (18%)	25 (89%)	5 (18%)	2 (7%)	3 (11%)	3 (11%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	11 (34%)	7 (22%)	7 (22%)	25 (78%)	—	—	—	—

CTD

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	17	5 (33%)	1 (7%)	2 (13%)	8 (53%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner	17	5 (33%)	3 (20%)	1 (7%)	9 (60%)	0 (0%)	2 (13%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
Algo 1 Winner	17	6 (40%)	1 (7%)	2 (13%)	9 (60%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	17	4 (27%)	1 (7%)	3 (20%)	8 (53%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	17	5 (36%)	1 (7%)	2 (14%)	8 (57%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
AI Longshot	5	1 (25%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (25%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	16	4 (25%)	3 (19%)	3 (19%)	10 (62%)	—	—	—	—

CTM

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	20	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

CTX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	24	6 (26%)	6 (26%)	2 (9%)	14 (61%)	1 (5%)	2 (9%)	1 (5%)	2 (9%)
Algo 3 Winner	24	5 (22%)	4 (17%)	2 (9%)	11 (48%)	2 (9%)	2 (9%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)
Algo 1 Winner	24	4 (18%)	6 (27%)	4 (18%)	14 (64%)	1 (5%)	4 (19%)	0 (0%)	2 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	24	6 (27%)	6 (27%)	1 (5%)	13 (59%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	3 (14%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	24	5 (23%)	6 (27%)	2 (9%)	13 (59%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	0 (0%)	3 (14%)
AI Longshot	8	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	24	8 (36%)	5 (23%)	2 (9%)	15 (68%)	3 (14%)	3 (14%)	0 (0%)	2 (9%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	24	7 (29%)	4 (17%)	4 (17%)	15 (62%)	—	—	—	—

DEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/30 · Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	35	10 (34%)	1 (3%)	3 (10%)	14 (48%)	2 (11%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)
Algo 3 Winner	35	4 (14%)	4 (14%)	1 (4%)	9 (32%)	0 (0%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	3 (13%)
Algo 1 Winner	35	8 (29%)	4 (14%)	3 (11%)	15 (54%)	3 (18%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	35	8 (29%)	1 (4%)	4 (14%)	13 (46%)	3 (14%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	35	7 (23%)	2 (7%)	2 (7%)	11 (37%)	4 (24%)	1 (6%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	16	2 (18%)	1 (9%)	2 (18%)	5 (45%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	35	6 (17%)	4 (11%)	4 (11%)	14 (40%)	—	—	—	—

EQK

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

EVD

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	14	2 (15%)	3 (23%)	4 (31%)	9 (69%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)

FEX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	13	7 (54%)	3 (23%)	0 (0%)	10 (77%)	4 (31%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	3 (23%)
Algo 3 Winner	13	4 (31%)	4 (31%)	0 (0%)	8 (62%)	2 (15%)	3 (23%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)
Algo 1 Winner	13	7 (54%)	3 (23%)	1 (8%)	11 (85%)	4 (31%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	5 (38%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	13	5 (42%)	3 (25%)	2 (17%)	10 (83%)	3 (25%)	2 (17%)	1 (8%)	2 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	13	6 (46%)	3 (23%)	2 (15%)	11 (85%)	4 (33%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	5 (42%)
AI Longshot	1	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	13	5 (38%)	3 (23%)	2 (15%)	10 (77%)	2 (15%)	2 (15%)	1 (8%)	2 (15%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	13	4 (31%)	4 (31%)	1 (8%)	9 (69%)	—	—	—	—

FLX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	24	3 (13%)	5 (22%)	6 (26%)	14 (61%)	0 (0%)	3 (14%)	0 (0%)	2 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner	24	6 (26%)	3 (13%)	5 (22%)	14 (61%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (10%)
Algo 1 Winner	24	3 (14%)	3 (14%)	6 (27%)	12 (55%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	2 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	24	5 (22%)	6 (26%)	5 (22%)	16 (70%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (16%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	24	3 (14%)	4 (19%)	6 (29%)	13 (62%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)
AI Longshot	2	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	24	9 (41%)	1 (5%)	5 (23%)	15 (68%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (9%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	24	6 (25%)	2 (8%)	5 (21%)	13 (54%)	—	—	—	—

FPK

AI Picks posts graded here: Tue 9/29 · Sat 10/3

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	16	5 (31%)	2 (12%)	4 (25%)	11 (69%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	2 (13%)
Algo 3 Winner	16	6 (38%)	2 (12%)	2 (12%)	10 (62%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	2 (13%)
Algo 1 Winner	16	6 (38%)	4 (25%)	2 (12%)	12 (75%)	1 (7%)	2 (13%)	1 (7%)	1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	16	5 (31%)	3 (19%)	2 (12%)	10 (62%)	1 (7%)	3 (21%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	16	6 (38%)	3 (19%)	3 (19%)	12 (75%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
AI Longshot	25	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	16	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
ML Favorite (chalk)	16	6 (38%)	4 (25%)	2 (12%)	12 (75%)	—	—	—	—

FTP

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	5	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
AI Longshot	3	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	—	—	—	—

FXX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)

GPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	28	11 (44%)	7 (28%)	5 (20%)	23 (92%)	3 (16%)	3 (16%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)
Algo 3 Winner	28	6 (26%)	7 (30%)	6 (26%)	19 (83%)	1 (6%)	2 (11%)	1 (6%)	2 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner	28	9 (33%)	6 (22%)	7 (26%)	22 (81%)	2 (12%)	3 (19%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	28	9 (35%)	9 (35%)	5 (19%)	23 (88%)	1 (5%)	4 (21%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	28	10 (37%)	8 (30%)	6 (22%)	24 (89%)	1 (6%)	3 (17%)	1 (6%)	2 (11%)
AI Longshot	6	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	40	8 (33%)	6 (25%)	5 (21%)	19 (79%)	3 (12%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	28	9 (32%)	5 (18%)	7 (25%)	21 (75%)	—	—	—	—

GRP

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	12	3 (27%)	5 (45%)	0 (0%)	8 (73%)	1 (10%)	0 (0%)	1 (10%)	2 (20%)
Algo 3 Winner	12	4 (36%)	4 (36%)	0 (0%)	8 (73%)	1 (9%)	1 (9%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	12	2 (18%)	2 (18%)	0 (0%)	4 (36%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	1 (10%)	3 (30%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	12	2 (18%)	5 (45%)	0 (0%)	7 (64%)	1 (11%)	1 (11%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	12	1 (9%)	3 (27%)	2 (18%)	6 (55%)	0 (0%)	1 (10%)	0 (0%)	2 (20%)
AI Longshot	2	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	12	3 (25%)	6 (50%)	0 (0%)	9 (75%)	—	—	—	—

IND

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30 · Thu 10/1

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	35	9 (30%)	5 (17%)	4 (13%)	18 (60%)	1 (4%)	3 (11%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)
Algo 3 Winner	35	6 (20%)	6 (20%)	2 (7%)	14 (47%)	4 (16%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	35	7 (21%)	8 (24%)	4 (12%)	19 (58%)	3 (12%)	2 (8%)	0 (0%)	3 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	35	8 (25%)	7 (22%)	4 (12%)	19 (59%)	2 (9%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	4 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	35	12 (36%)	7 (21%)	3 (9%)	22 (67%)	1 (4%)	2 (7%)	0 (0%)	3 (11%)
AI Longshot	29	1 (3%)	1 (3%)	2 (7%)	4 (14%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	51	12 (25%)	8 (17%)	9 (19%)	29 (60%)	5 (10%)	1 (2%)	2 (4%)	4 (8%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	35	10 (29%)	6 (17%)	5 (14%)	21 (60%)	—	—	—	—

KEE

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	31	6 (21%)	6 (21%)	2 (7%)	14 (50%)	1 (4%)	2 (9%)	1 (4%)	2 (9%)
Algo 3 Winner	31	9 (32%)	4 (14%)	3 (11%)	16 (57%)	2 (9%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	2 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner	31	5 (17%)	7 (24%)	4 (14%)	16 (55%)	1 (4%)	3 (12%)	0 (0%)	3 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	31	4 (14%)	7 (24%)	4 (14%)	15 (52%)	2 (8%)	3 (12%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	31	8 (28%)	7 (24%)	2 (7%)	17 (59%)	1 (4%)	3 (12%)	0 (0%)	4 (17%)
AI Longshot	25	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	3 (16%)	4 (21%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	31	7 (25%)	5 (18%)	3 (11%)	15 (54%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	31	7 (23%)	6 (19%)	3 (10%)	16 (52%)	—	—	—	—

LAD

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	22	6 (32%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	10 (53%)	1 (7%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	22	6 (30%)	5 (25%)	3 (15%)	14 (70%)	0 (0%)	3 (20%)	0 (0%)	2 (13%)
Algo 1 Winner	22	6 (30%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	9 (45%)	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	22	5 (28%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	9 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	22	6 (30%)	2 (10%)	4 (20%)	12 (60%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
AI Longshot	30	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)	3 (12%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	22	7 (35%)	3 (15%)	3 (15%)	13 (65%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	22	5 (23%)	3 (14%)	7 (32%)	15 (68%)	—	—	—	—

LAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	2	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	2	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	2	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	2	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	2	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)
AI Longshot	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	2	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	0 (0%)	2 (100%)	—	—	—	—

LBG

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	5	1 (25%)	0 (0%)	2 (50%)	3 (75%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	5	2 (50%)	0 (0%)	2 (50%)	4 (100%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	5	1 (25%)	1 (25%)	1 (25%)	3 (75%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (50%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	5	1 (25%)	0 (0%)	1 (25%)	2 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (25%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	5	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	2 (50%)	2 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (25%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	5	3 (60%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	4 (80%)	—	—	—	—

LRL

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	29	7 (41%)	5 (29%)	1 (6%)	13 (76%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	29	7 (41%)	6 (35%)	1 (6%)	14 (82%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	29	6 (35%)	5 (29%)	1 (6%)	12 (71%)	0 (0%)	1 (10%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	29	6 (35%)	6 (35%)	1 (6%)	13 (76%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	29	7 (39%)	4 (22%)	1 (6%)	12 (67%)	0 (0%)	1 (8%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
AI Longshot	16	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	47	7 (33%)	7 (33%)	1 (5%)	15 (71%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	29	10 (34%)	8 (28%)	2 (7%)	20 (69%)	—	—	—	—

LSX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	29	11 (39%)	8 (29%)	3 (11%)	22 (79%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)

MED

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	12	2 (20%)	3 (30%)	1 (10%)	6 (60%)	1 (12%)	1 (12%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	12	3 (33%)	2 (22%)	0 (0%)	5 (56%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner	12	1 (10%)	3 (30%)	1 (10%)	5 (50%)	1 (11%)	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	12	1 (9%)	4 (36%)	1 (9%)	6 (55%)	0 (0%)	1 (14%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	12	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	6 (60%)	2 (22%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (11%)
AI Longshot	6	1 (20%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	12	5 (42%)	2 (17%)	2 (17%)	9 (75%)	—	—	—	—

MNR

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	9 (31%)	7 (24%)	6 (21%)	22 (76%)	1 (6%)	3 (17%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	13 (45%)	6 (21%)	4 (14%)	23 (79%)	2 (12%)	2 (12%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	9 (32%)	8 (29%)	4 (14%)	21 (75%)	1 (5%)	5 (26%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	9 (32%)	8 (29%)	5 (18%)	22 (79%)	1 (5%)	3 (15%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	10 (36%)	8 (29%)	4 (14%)	22 (79%)	1 (5%)	4 (20%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)
AI Longshot	15	1 (9%)	2 (18%)	0 (0%)	3 (27%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	11 (39%)	5 (18%)	5 (18%)	21 (75%)	2 (7%)	2 (7%)	0 (0%)	3 (11%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	9 (28%)	8 (25%)	7 (22%)	24 (75%)	—	—	—	—

PID

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30 · Thu 10/1

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	32	9 (31%)	7 (24%)	6 (21%)	22 (76%)	1 (5%)	2 (9%)	1 (5%)	5 (23%)
Algo 3 Winner	32	10 (33%)	9 (30%)	6 (20%)	25 (83%)	4 (17%)	3 (12%)	1 (4%)	3 (12%)
Algo 1 Winner	32	13 (46%)	8 (29%)	2 (7%)	23 (82%)	2 (9%)	3 (13%)	0 (0%)	4 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	12 (41%)	10 (34%)	4 (14%)	26 (90%)	2 (9%)	1 (4%)	1 (4%)	4 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	12 (40%)	8 (27%)	6 (20%)	26 (87%)	1 (5%)	2 (10%)	1 (5%)	4 (19%)
AI Longshot	4	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	13 (41%)	8 (25%)	3 (9%)	24 (75%)	—	—	—	—

PRX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	27	11 (44%)	4 (16%)	1 (4%)	16 (64%)	5 (26%)	2 (11%)	1 (5%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	27	11 (42%)	4 (15%)	2 (8%)	17 (65%)	5 (26%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
Algo 1 Winner	27	10 (40%)	3 (12%)	2 (8%)	15 (60%)	2 (12%)	2 (12%)	1 (6%)	3 (18%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	27	11 (42%)	7 (27%)	0 (0%)	18 (69%)	1 (5%)	4 (21%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	27	10 (40%)	4 (16%)	2 (8%)	16 (64%)	2 (10%)	2 (10%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
AI Longshot	2	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	27	8 (33%)	4 (17%)	2 (8%)	14 (58%)	3 (12%)	2 (8%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	27	11 (41%)	5 (19%)	3 (11%)	19 (70%)	—	—	—	—

RPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	27	9 (36%)	4 (16%)	2 (8%)	15 (60%)	2 (11%)	3 (16%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
Algo 3 Winner	27	8 (33%)	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	15 (62%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	0 (0%)	1 (5%)
Algo 1 Winner	27	7 (28%)	4 (16%)	2 (8%)	13 (52%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	27	12 (46%)	3 (12%)	1 (4%)	16 (62%)	0 (0%)	2 (11%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	27	9 (39%)	3 (13%)	2 (9%)	14 (61%)	2 (13%)	2 (13%)	0 (0%)	1 (7%)
AI Longshot	9	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	3 (43%)	3 (43%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	27	9 (33%)	4 (15%)	2 (7%)	15 (56%)	—	—	—	—

SAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	29	10 (36%)	6 (21%)	3 (11%)	19 (68%)	2 (9%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner	29	11 (38%)	3 (10%)	4 (14%)	18 (62%)	3 (12%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner	29	8 (29%)	5 (18%)	3 (11%)	16 (57%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	29	8 (29%)	7 (25%)	3 (11%)	18 (64%)	1 (4%)	2 (8%)	0 (0%)	2 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	29	8 (30%)	9 (33%)	1 (4%)	18 (67%)	0 (0%)	2 (8%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
AI Longshot	19	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	3 (18%)	4 (24%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	29	7 (26%)	7 (26%)	6 (22%)	20 (74%)	2 (7%)	2 (7%)	0 (0%)	1 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	29	11 (38%)	5 (17%)	4 (14%)	20 (69%)	—	—	—	—

TDN

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/28 · Tue 9/29 · Wed 9/30 · Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	40	13 (36%)	4 (11%)	10 (28%)	27 (75%)	6 (19%)	3 (10%)	4 (13%)	3 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner	40	16 (43%)	3 (8%)	8 (22%)	27 (73%)	7 (21%)	1 (3%)	5 (15%)	3 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner	40	12 (33%)	6 (17%)	5 (14%)	23 (64%)	4 (13%)	4 (13%)	2 (7%)	3 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	40	13 (36%)	8 (22%)	4 (11%)	25 (69%)	4 (12%)	4 (12%)	2 (6%)	5 (16%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	40	11 (30%)	5 (14%)	9 (24%)	25 (68%)	4 (13%)	4 (13%)	2 (7%)	3 (10%)
AI Longshot	3	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	40	14 (37%)	4 (11%)	10 (26%)	28 (74%)	3 (8%)	4 (11%)	1 (3%)	7 (18%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	40	17 (42%)	3 (8%)	9 (22%)	29 (72%)	—	—	—	—

WOX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 10/1 · Fri 10/2 · Sat 10/3 · Sun 10/4

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 2 Winner	36	8 (22%)	8 (22%)	3 (8%)	19 (53%)	2 (6%)	5 (14%)	1 (3%)	5 (14%)
Algo 3 Winner	36	9 (25%)	9 (25%)	5 (14%)	23 (64%)	1 (3%)	5 (14%)	1 (3%)	4 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner	36	10 (29%)	7 (20%)	4 (11%)	21 (60%)	4 (12%)	3 (9%)	0 (0%)	2 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	36	13 (36%)	9 (25%)	4 (11%)	26 (72%)	5 (15%)	0 (0%)	1 (3%)	2 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	36	8 (22%)	11 (31%)	2 (6%)	21 (58%)	2 (6%)	6 (18%)	2 (6%)	3 (9%)
AI Longshot	11	0 (0%)	1 (9%)	0 (0%)	1 (9%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	36	10 (28%)	7 (19%)	4 (11%)	21 (58%)	2 (6%)	3 (8%)	1 (3%)	4 (11%)
ML Favorite (chalk)	36	11 (31%)	9 (25%)	3 (8%)	23 (64%)	—	—	—	—

WRD

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	30	6 (21%)	6 (21%)	3 (10%)	15 (52%)	1 (3%)	2 (7%)	0 (0%)	2 (7%)