Get more in-depth analysis, expert picks, handicapper reports, AI picks, handicapping tools, in-article data tooltips, NO ADVERTISEMENTS, and other membership perks with a Pick Pony subscription!
Don’t forget Pick Pony’s Expert Picks, AI Picks, and Past Performance Sheets/Racing Forms!
The Pick Pony Handicapper’s Report is published daily and provides analysis of all races on the card. A Pick Pony analyst prepares the report, so selections may differ from the Pick Pony Expert Picks, which are based on the consensus of all Pick Pony analysts.
Turf Paradise presents an intriguing eight-race Tuesday card mixing thoroughbreds with a Quarter Horse opener. The sequence features a blend of lower-level claimers and competitive allowance events, highlighted by the second race, an Optional Claiming sprint for three-year-olds. With the meet in full swing, the jockey colony is fiercely competitive, led by Manuel Americano and Karlo Lopez, while the trainer standings continue to be dominated by powerhouses like Justin Evans and Robertino Diodoro. Pay close attention to the scratches today, as several races have been impacted by late withdrawals, particularly in the fifth and sixth events.
Weather and Track Conditions
The forecast for Phoenix calls for clear skies and seasonable temperatures, ensuring a fast main track. Turf Paradise dirt surfaces are notoriously speed-favoring, especially in sprint races where early positioning is paramount. The track has been playing fair but firm, often rewarding horses who can establish position on the rail or sit just off the lead. In route races, the bias tends to be less pronounced, though getting stuck wide on the turns is a significant disadvantage. Expect fast times and a bias toward inside speed on the dirt today.
Jockey Notes and Insights
Manuel Americano continues to ride in top form, leading the standings with aggressive handling that suits this speed-favoring surface perfectly. He is listed on several live mounts today, including key contenders in the late Pick 4. Karlo Lopez remains a consistent force, particularly when teaming up with high-percentage barns. Keep an eye on Orlando Mojica, who pairs with Robertino Diodoro in the third and seventh races; this jockey-trainer combination strikes at a lethal percentage at Turf Paradise and often signals a horse is ready to fire a maximum effort.
Trainer Notes and Insights
Justin Evans and Robertino Diodoro are the headlined trainers on this card. Evans sends out Saint Benji in the second, a horse that fits the aggressive placement typical of his operation. Diodoro, currently striking at over 30% for the meet, has two formidable entrants in Devil Among Us (Race 3) and Saqeel (Race 7). Both horses are spotted realistically and will likely take significant action at the windows. In the Quarter Horse ranks, Jesus Fernando Ortega, Sr. brings Rebs Regalo in the opener, a barn known for having their charges sharp away from the gates.
Best Wagering Strategies and Value Plays
The best betting opportunities on the card appear to lie in the Pick 4 sequences. The early Pick 4 (Races 1-4) is anchored by a likely single in the third race with Devil Among Us, allowing bettors to spread deeper in the contentious maiden race (Race 4) and the Quarter Horse opener. For value hunters, the seventh race offers a chance to beat the favorite if Saqeel gets engaged in a speed duel; looking for a stalker like Golden Affair could pay dividends in the exotics. The late Daily Double (Races 7-8) also presents value, as the eighth race is a wide-open claiming event where separating the contenders from the pretenders could yield a handsome payoff.
1st Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
01:15 PM
Pace Analysis
In this 300-yard dash, the break is everything. Rebs Regalo draws the rail and will need to flash instant speed to hold position. Av Tornadoe Warning and Cant Tell You Why show competitive figures that suggest they will be pressing from the start. Expect a scramble for the lead, with the horse who breaks cleanest likely taking the prize.
Key Contenders
Rebs Regalo looks poised to control this race from the inside. The connections are solid with Quarter Horses, and the rail draw at 300 yards is often an advantage if the horse breaks alertly. Av Tornadoe Warning brings legitimate speed figures to the table and has the services of the capable Brandon Guevara. This runner has faced decent company and should be right in the mix at the wire.
Secondary Choices
Cant Tell You Why is a logical player for the exotics. While perhaps a step slower than the top two on raw numbers, this filly is consistent and could pick up the pieces if the leaders falter. Corazon Stoli offers some intrigue as a potential improver but will need a career-best effort to win.
Longshots
Mr Icon Six and Goodbye Tyme appear to be a cut below the top group today. They would need significant trouble for the favorites to factor into the win pool, though Mr Icon Six could add value to the bottom of the superfecta.
Selections
Win: Rebs Regalo (1) – 35% confidence Place: Av Tornadoe Warning (2) – 25% confidence Show: Cant Tell You Why (3) – 20% confidence Alternative: Corazon Stoli (5) – 10% confidence
2nd Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
01:45 PM
Pace Analysis
This 6-furlong sprint features legitimate speed. Saint Benji is the primary pace presence and will likely be sent hard from the rail by Guillermo Rodriguez. Mr. Matic and Hey Pardner have enough tactical speed to stay close, which could keep the favorite honest. If the pace heats up, Court of Appeal could benefit from a stalking trip.
Key Contenders
Saint Benji is the horse to beat. Trained by the high-percentage Justin Evans, this gelding possesses the early speed to clear the field or dictate terms from the inside. Evans excels with these types of runners, and the drop into this spot signals intent. Court of Appeal is a dangerous rival. Vladimir Cerin is a shrewd trainer who places his horses well, and this runner has the class to run down the speed if the fractions get too hot.
Secondary Choices
Mr. Matic comes from the Kevin Eikleberry barn, which is always dangerous at Turf Paradise. He should be in a good position throughout and has the talent to capitalize on any mistakes by the top two. Hey Pardner is a steady check-earner who figures to be around at the finish, making him a solid inclusion for trifecta and superfecta tickets.
Longshots
Marking Broadway seems up against it in this field. The pace scenario does not appear to favor his running style, and he will need a major step forward to threaten the top contenders.
Selections
Win: Saint Benji (1) – 40% confidence Place: Court of Appeal (2) – 30% confidence Show: Mr. Matic (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Hey Pardner (3) – 10% confidence
3rd Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
02:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Devil Among Us projects to be the controlling speed or sit a perfect stalking trip in this 5 1/2 furlong event. Desperate Man also has speed but may not be able to match the turn-of-foot of the Diodoro trainee. The pace should be moderate to fast, favoring horses on or near the lead.
Key Contenders
Devil Among Us is the standout of the day. The Robertino Diodoro and Orlando Mojica combination is statistically dominant at this track. This gelding has back class that supersedes this field, and his recent form suggests he is sitting on a big effort. He is a likely single in multi-race wagers. Desperate Man is the main danger. Trained by Kevin Eikleberry with Frank Alvarado aboard, he has the speed figures to compete and will likely be the one chasing the favorite home.
Secondary Choices
Player B is a consistent veteran who rarely runs a bad race. He may not have the upside of the top two, but he is a must-use in vertical exotics. Jaime’s Commitment brings Karlo Lopez into the irons, which is always a positive sign. He should be running on late to grab a share of the purse.
Longshots
Where’s the Loot and First Call appear outclassed in this spot. They would need a complete pace collapse to find the winner’s circle, though First Call could potentially clunk up for fourth at a price.
Selections
Win: Devil Among Us (3) – 55% confidence Place: Desperate Man (1) – 20% confidence Show: Player B (4) – 15% confidence Alternative: Jaime’s Commitment (5) – 5% confidence
4th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
02:45 PM
Pace Analysis
With Joyriding scratched, the pace dynamic shifts. Sparkley Barkley and Earl’s Girl look to be the primary beneficiaries. Both possess early foot and should vie for the lead in this 5-furlong dash for maiden fillies. The race is likely to be decided by who can clear the field early.
Key Contenders
Chipada draws the rail and gets Guillermo Rodriguez. This filly has shown flashes of ability and finds a very soft spot here. If she can break cleanly, she has a huge chance to break her maiden. Sparkley Barkley is the logical alternative. The Howard Gibson trainee has shown speed in the past and faces a field lacking depth. Blake Nunnally will likely be aggressive from the gate.
Secondary Choices
Earl’s Girl enters for trainer Wendell Matt. While her form is not spectacular, in a maiden claiming race of this caliber, often the horse who can simply stay out of trouble wins. She fits well with these. Mystic Skye gets the services of leading rider Manuel Americano. That jockey booking alone makes her dangerous, as Americano can often lift a horse to outperform its odds.
Longshots
Hot Summer Breeze gets a significant weight break with the apprentice rider but needs to show more speed to contend. Angel’s Effort and Ten of Hearts have yet to prove they belong at this level and are tough to endorse.
Selections
Win: Chipada (1) – 30% confidence Place: Sparkley Barkley (4) – 25% confidence Show: Mystic Skye (7) – 20% confidence Alternative: Earl’s Girl (6) – 15% confidence
5th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
03:15 PM
Pace Analysis
This race has been decimated by scratches, with Flyin By and Smiling Lady both out. This leaves a compact field where Bacalar and Classic American figure to control the tempo. In a small field, the lone speed is often dangerous, and Bacalar fits that profile perfectly.
Key Contenders
Bacalar is the clear choice in this depleted field. With Karlo Lopez aboard, she has the tactical speed to dictate the race. Her recent form is superior to her remaining rivals, and she should handle this group. Classic American will likely be the main pursuer. Guillermo Rodriguez takes the mount, and she has enough back class to be a threat if the top choice falters.
Secondary Choices
Lula Bella could pick up the pieces if the pace falls apart, though that seems unlikely in a small field. She is best used underneath in trifectas. High Gunner brings Manuel Americano to the saddle, which demands respect, but her form is inconsistent.
Longshots
Trouble N Paradise and B C Chu Chu are difficult to make a case for based on recent performances. They would need significant improvement to hit the board.
Selections
Win: Bacalar (1) – 45% confidence Place: Classic American (5) – 30% confidence Show: High Gunner (3) – 15% confidence Alternative: Lula Bella (4) – 5% confidence
6th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
03:45 PM
Pace Analysis
The scratch of Bandersnatch removes a key contender. May Surprise and Circle of Fire will likely contest the early pace in this one-mile event. The stretch out to a mile often tests the stamina of these lower-level maidens, so look for a horse who has shown the ability to finish.
Key Contenders
May Surprise looks best here. Trained by Wade Rarick and ridden by Guillermo Rodriguez, she has shown steady improvement and finds a field that is largely struggling. Her speed figures suggest she fits perfectly at this level. Ms. Buzzinga offers some value. She has been running evenly and may appreciate the distance. The wide draw is a slight concern, but she has enough tactical speed to overcome it.
Secondary Choices
Circle of Fire draws the rail and gets Silvio Amador. She should save ground throughout and be in a position to strike turning for home. Golden Midnight is a one-paced grinder who could plod into the trifecta if the pace collapses.
Longshots
Fae Allannah and Barbies Fury have shown little to date to suggest they can win here. Magic Authority and Brascia’s Art are also longshots who would need a complete reversal of form to contend.
Selections
Win: May Surprise (5) – 35% confidence Place: Ms. Buzzinga (6) – 25% confidence Show: Circle of Fire (1) – 20% confidence Alternative: Golden Midnight (7) – 10% confidence
7th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
04:15 PM
Pace Analysis
Saqeel is the class of the field and has the speed to clear from post 4. With Hadlees Honor scratched, the pace pressure is reduced. Golden Affair and Outofquemado will likely try to stay within striking distance. The race runs through Saqeel on the front end.
Key Contenders
Saqeel is a standout. The Diodoro/Mojica team strikes again with a horse that looks superior to this group. He has faced much tougher company and should relish the drop to this claiming level. Expect him to be on or near the lead throughout. Golden Affair is the most logical upsetter. He has run some competitive races at this level and could capitalize if the favorite has an off day.
Secondary Choices
Outofquemado draws the rail and gets Karlo Lopez. He will save all the ground and should be running on late. He is a solid key for second and third. Herecomegeorgieboy is a veteran who knows how to win. While he may have lost a step, he is capable of hitting the board in this spot.
Longshots
Dangerous Game and Dos Vicios are deeper closers who need a pace meltdown to succeed. In a race where the favorite might control the tempo, they are up against it. Silver Dash is stuck on the far outside and will have a tough trip.
Selections
Win: Saqeel (4) – 50% confidence Place: Golden Affair (2) – 20% confidence Show: Outofquemado (1) – 15% confidence Alternative: Herecomegeorgieboy (3) – 10% confidence
8th Race – Turf Paradise
Post Time
04:45 PM
Pace Analysis
The nightcap is a competitive 6-furlong sprint. Valley Echo and Pink Channel both possess early speed. Army Knife adds blinkers (implied by the equipment change often seen with this trainer) or shows speed from the middle gate. Expect a contested pace which could set it up for a stalker.
Key Contenders
Valley Echo looks primed for a big effort. With Manuel Americano aboard for trainer Joe Toye, she checks a lot of boxes. She has shown the ability to pass horses and should get a good trip from post 2. Pink Channel draws the rail and will be sent. If she can shake loose, she might be tough to catch, but the pressure will be on from the start.
Secondary Choices
Mini Again is an interesting player. Karlo Lopez takes the mount for Neil Koch, and this filly has run some decent races against similar company. She offers good value in the exotics. Army Knife is a consistent sort who figures to be in the mix early.
Longshots
Social Status and Burnin At Midnight are outside draws that will need to work hard to get position. Screaming Virginia has been inconsistent but could pop at a price if she wakes up. Sweet Beth rounds out the field and seems a bit slow on the numbers.
Selections
Win: Valley Echo (2) – 30% confidence Place: Pink Channel (1) – 25% confidence Show: Mini Again (7) – 20% confidence Alternative: Army Knife (4) – 15% confidence
