See how we did! Pick Pony Picks Weekly Recap – Week of November 4, 2026

 

TL;DR

Pick Pony Weekly Picks Recap — November 4, 2024

AI Picks Performance This Week

What a week to be a Pick Pony subscriber! Across thousands of settled races spanning late October through early November, our AI Pick systems delivered consistently impressive results that left the morning-line chalk in the dust. The chalk favorite won at a 31.7% clip this week — a solid baseline — but our AI systems cleared that bar with authority across the board. Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) led the charge with a remarkable 33.2% win rate across 521 settled races and an outstanding 68.5% ITM rate, while its morning update version racked up an even more impressive 183 wins across 555 settled races. Algorithm Keepers posted a stellar 33.5% win rate with a 67.8% ITM, and Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) matched that ITM figure with 173 wins on the overnight series — climbing to 182 wins in the morning update. Our focused specialty models shone brightly too: AI Best Bets delivered an eye-popping 69.5% ITM rate, while Algorithm Ens Video topped the board at a dazzling 72.2% ITM across its 108 settled races. The AI Best Bets A2 system wasn't far behind at 70.8% ITM, and Algorithm Keepers Am impressed with a 71.1% ITM in its focused race set. Simply put, nearly every system we run outpaced the chalk this week — across hundreds of races, that's no accident.

Standout Wins

The highlight reel this week is absolutely packed. Our Experimental Weight Set 2 systems deserve a standing ovation for their longshot hunting, flagging MOTHER GREEN at 12-1 (Oct 28, IND R8) and NOLA LOUISE at 10-1 (Nov 3, IND R7) as top picks — both romped home winners. ROBERT LEE at 9-1 (Nov 1, MNR R5) was another gem identified by multiple systems including Experimental Weight Set 2 and Algorithm Ens Signals, proving our models don't shy away from value. MONUMENTALJUSTICE at 8-1 (Nov 2, IND R8) showed up across Algo 1, Algo 2, Algo 3, and multiple experimental sets — a true consensus longshot score. On the exotic side, Algo 3's morning update was the standout, connecting on 60 exactas, 55 boxed exactas, 17 trifectas, and 59 boxed trifectas — numbers that speak directly to the bottom line for exotic players. Meanwhile, familiar names like NIGHT SKY (5-1) at Belmont and Rockstar Casanova (4-1) at Finger Lakes appeared across nearly every system, underscoring the confidence our AI had in those selections all week long.

Key Insights

A few clear themes emerged from this week's data. First, value spotting remains a core strength — our systems repeatedly identified winners in the 4-1 to 6-1 range where the payout is meaningful but the AI's confidence was justified, delivering win after win at prices the crowd underestimated. Second, the morning update series continues to add real value: by adapting to scratch replacements at post time, the morning updates added wins across every series where it's available — Algo 3's morning update produced 10 more wins than its overnight counterpart, and Algo 2's morning update added 9 additional wins, all without meaningfully changing the win rate. That's pure added value for players who check in before the gates open. Third, Algo 3's exotic performance — leading all systems with 60 exactas and 59 boxed trifectas in the morning update — suggests its probability modeling is not just picking winners but correctly ordering the field, which is exactly what exotic bettors need.

Looking Ahead

We're heading into the week with incredible momentum, and with several races still pending across our AI Exacta, Longshot, and Algo series, those final results could push our numbers even higher — stay tuned for updates! Keep an eye on our Algo 3 morning update and Algo 2 morning update for exotic opportunities, and don't sleep on the Experimental Weight Set 2 if you love a longshot — this system has a nose for big-priced winners that could make your week. The horses are running, the AI is locked in, and Pick Pony is here to help you cash tickets! 🏇

Weekly Performance Summary

How each pick source's top selection finished across every graded race this week.

Where our AI Ensemble picks finished this week

All 519 graded races the Algo 2 top pick ran in.

0%21%42%64%85%Won the race: 33.3% from 519 racesWon the race33.3%Finished 2nd: 20.6% from 519 racesFinished 2nd20.6%Finished 3rd: 13.9% from 519 racesFinished 3rd13.9%In the money: 67.8% from 519 racesIn the money67.8%

The bottom bar adds the first three together.

Show the numbers
GroupWin rateRaces
Won the race33.3%519
Finished 2nd20.6%519
Finished 3rd13.9%519
In the money67.8%519

Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta). Morning Update rows are the same picks re-ranked after the official scratches and surface changes were applied that morning.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)

Several independent AI models each rank the race; the horse they agree on most is the pick.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)17333.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10720.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7213.9%
Top Pick ITM35267.8%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta48 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta44 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta14 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta46 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)18232.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)11420.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7914.2%
Top Pick ITM37567.3%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick38 races, 9 won23.7%
Pending14

The morning update found a new pick in 38 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 9 of them won. Without the morning update those 38 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta54 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta49 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta16 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta59 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)

An AI estimate of each horse's chance of winning, blended with the morning line; the most likely winner is the pick.

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)17333.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)11221.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7213.8%
Top Pick ITM35768.5%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta51 (12%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta51 (12%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta11 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta48 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)18333.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)11721.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7413.3%
Top Pick ITM37467.4%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick34 races, 10 won29.4%
Pending14

The morning update found a new pick in 34 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 10 of them won. Without the morning update those 34 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta60 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta55 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta17 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta59 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1

Our weighted rating: every horse is scored on speed, pace, class, form and connections, and the top score is the pick.

Algo 1 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)16131.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10019.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7714.9%
Top Pick ITM33865.3%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta45 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta45 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta11 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta33 (8%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)17431.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10519.0%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)8114.6%
Top Pick ITM36065.1%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick35 races, 13 won37.1%
Pending14

The morning update found a new pick in 35 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 13 of them won. Without the morning update those 35 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta51 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta50 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta12 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta45 (8%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

AI Exacta

The top two horses in our exotics ordering, played as a $1 straight exacta.

AI Exacta Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)17132.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10620.4%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7314.1%
Top Pick ITM35067.4%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (AI Exacta Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta42 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta47 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta16 (4%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta50 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)15831.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)9819.4%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6713.3%
Top Pick ITM32364.1%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta36 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta38 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta8 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta37 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)16730.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10218.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7914.4%
Top Pick ITM34863.4%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick45 races, 10 won22.2%
Pending14

The morning update found a new pick in 45 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 10 of them won. Without the morning update those 45 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta47 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta42 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta16 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta46 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)15229.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)11522.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7514.5%
Top Pick ITM34265.9%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta42 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta48 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta11 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta36 (8%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)16329.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)11921.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)8014.5%
Top Pick ITM36265.5%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick34 races, 11 won32.4%
Pending14

The morning update found a new pick in 34 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 11 of them won. Without the morning update those 34 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta45 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta51 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta14 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta50 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets

Ai Best Bets Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races378
Top Pick Wins (1st)12535.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)8022.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)3911.1%
Top Pick ITM24469.5%
Pending3

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets A2

Ai Best Bets A2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races278
Top Pick Wins (1st)9336.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)6224.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)2710.5%
Top Pick ITM18270.8%
Pending3

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets A2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta0 (—)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta0 (—)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Labs Longshot

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

Ai Labs Longshot Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races409
Top Pick Wins (1st)11431.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7420.3%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)5815.9%
Top Pick ITM24667.6%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Labs Longshot Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta23 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta36 (12%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta10 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta22 (7%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Labs Winchance

Ai Labs Winchance Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races409
Top Pick Wins (1st)11331.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7219.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)4913.5%
Top Pick ITM23464.5%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Labs Winchance Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta32 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta34 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta8 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta33 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Ens Refit

Algorithm Ens Refit Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)17032.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10820.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6913.3%
Top Pick ITM34767.1%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Ens Refit Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta47 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta46 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta17 (4%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta43 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Ens Signals

Algorithm Ens Signals Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races409
Top Pick Wins (1st)11331.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)7921.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)4813.2%
Top Pick ITM24066.1%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Ens Signals Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta25 (8%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta43 (14%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta6 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta33 (11%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Ens Video

Algorithm Ens Video Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races109
Top Pick Wins (1st)3431.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)2422.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)2018.5%
Top Pick ITM7872.2%
Pending0

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Ens Video Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta9 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta10 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta2 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta9 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Keepers

Algorithm Keepers Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)17433.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10921.0%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6913.3%
Top Pick ITM35267.8%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Keepers Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta47 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta52 (12%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta15 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta40 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Keepers Am

Algorithm Keepers Am Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

MetricCountRate
Total Races103
Top Pick Wins (1st)3435.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)1919.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)1616.5%
Top Pick ITM6971.1%
Replaced a scratched overnight pick6 races, 1 won16.7%
Pending0

The morning update found a new pick in 6 races where the overnight pick was scratched, and 1 of them won. Without the morning update those 6 bets would simply have been refunded, so these are extra winners. Because those races are counted here but not in the overnight table (and our first choice was gone), this win rate can read slightly lower than the overnight rate even in a week when the morning update wins more races.

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Keepers Am Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta8 (9%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta6 (7%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta2 (2%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta9 (10%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algorithm Offtrk Ens

Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

MetricCountRate
Total Races575
Top Pick Wins (1st)16932.5%
Top Pick Places (2nd)10520.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)7314.0%
Top Pick ITM34766.7%
Pending14

Exotic Wager Hits (Algorithm Offtrk Ens Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta42 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta43 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta15 (3%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta40 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Today’s Best Bets (AI × Expert Alignment)

The horses published in each day's Today's Best Bets post: races where the AI top pick and the expert consensus top pick were the same horse, split by how many AI models agreed.

AgreementRaces gradedWon2nd3rdWin %
All 3 AI models + experts21183472339.3%
2 of 3 AI models + experts842819733.3%
1 of 3 AI models + experts551413925.5%
All Best Bets350125793935.7%
Pending87

AI Longshot Picks (Kelly Edge Plays)

Longshot picks are individual horses flagged at publication time: their morning-line odds were 8-1 or greater — prices the betting public considers unlikely to win — and the model's calibrated win probability said the price overpaid. Unlike the winner models above, a longshot is not a race's top-ranked horse, so these tables count selections, not races: every flagged horse is one bet, graded on its own finish, and a single race can contribute more than one. (For the same reason there is no exotic-hits table here — an exacta or trifecta needs a ranked 1-2-3 ticket, which a set of longshot flags does not define.) There is also one longshot table rather than one per algorithm: the flag depends only on the horse's price and its calibrated edge, never on where an algorithm ranked it, so all three models publish exactly the same longshot list. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition, win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and on the realised ROI in the Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator below rather than on raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance.

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

MetricCountRate
Longshot Selections162
Races Covered94
Wins (1st)75.5%
Places (2nd)1310.2%
Shows (3rd)97.0%
ITM2922.7%
Pending2

Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator

What a flat win bet on every flagged longshot would have returned this week at each minimum-edge threshold.

Each strategy below replays the past 60 days of AI longshot picks as actual $2 mutuel bets and reports the realised return. A longer window than the rest of this report is used here on purpose: longshots are rare and extremely high-variance, so a single week's results are dominated by luck — only over a larger sample do the calibrated edge strategies separate from simply betting every longshot. Bets are deduplicated by (track, race, horse) so a horse picked by all three algorithms generates one bet, not three. Edge strategies use a calibrated win Probability (from the longshot meta-learner) and bet only when P(win) × decimal odds − 1 exceeds the listed threshold — these target overlays rather than long prices for their own sake. Hit% is the share of tickets that cashed any leg. Published longshots graded: 1806; wider 10/1-and-longer universe available to the edge rows: 14665, of which 14665 could be assigned a calibrated edge. Calibrator: out-of-sample tiered calibrator on the cross-race win Probability (lgbm_win_prob_fwd), trained through 2026-09-04; edge rows replay only the 60 days after that date, so no graded race was ever seen by the calibrator. The edge filters use only leak-free forward scores (lgbm_win_prob_fwd — captured before each race ran), so the ROIs are a genuine out-of-sample estimate — never the in-sample re-scored values that previously inflated this section. The two families are measured differently — read them separately. The raw-filter rows grade the longshots we actually published, over the full 60 days. The edge rows sweep a different population: every thoroughbred runner priced at 10/1 or longer, published or not. That matters, because being published as a longshot already requires passing an edge test — so re-applying an edge threshold to the published picks would just re-filter an already-filtered group and tell you nothing. The edge rows also cover only the most recent 60 days (14665 runners), because everything before 2026-09-04 was needed to fit the calibrator and grading it would be marking its own homework. That window widens on its own as forward scores accumulate.

StrategyBetsTickets CashedStakePayout
$2 WIN — all longshots180695 (5.3%)$3612.00$2066.06
$2 PLACE — all longshots1806246 (13.6%)$3612.00$2338.30
$2 SHOW — all longshots1806395 (21.9%)$3612.00$2257.84
$2 WIN + $2 PLACE1806246 (13.6%)$7224.00$4404.36
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 15/1148465 (4.4%)$2968.00$1730.96
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 20/1115537 (3.2%)$2310.00$1199.14
$2 WIN — field ≥ 8152776 (5.0%)$3054.00$1808.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 5%4173305 (7.3%)$8346.00$6142.36
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10%2506178 (7.1%)$5012.00$3537.14
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 20%101851 (5.0%)$2036.00$1008.64
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 30%90242 (4.7%)$1804.00$790.34
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 40%41023 (5.6%)$820.00$427.22
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 50%1869 (4.8%)$372.00$211.52
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 60%1238 (6.5%)$246.00$154.32
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 70%431 (2.3%)$86.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 80%381 (2.6%)$76.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 90%381 (2.6%)$76.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 100%381 (2.6%)$76.00$10.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10% AND field ≥ 81634104 (6.4%)$3268.00$2432.32

Trifecta Structure Plays (AI Exotics)

The Trifecta line from each day's AI Exotics section: key the top pick to win over the next three horses (six combinations per race); the tag shows whether the race shape looked playable.

Each AI Predictions post suggests one trifecta structure per race: the Algo 3 top pick to win, with its next three ranked horses boxed for 2nd and 3rd (6 combinations). Races our race-shape model rates most favorable are tagged ⭐ Best Bet in the post. This table grades last week's published plays against the actual trifecta payoffs at each track's real wager minimum — no assumptions, no hindsight.

Plays graded354
Trifectas hit40 (11.3%)
Total staked$1,251.60
Total returned$936.13

219 race(s) skipped for scratches inside the top four; 2 skipped where the track's trifecta minimum wasn't recorded. Per-race wager minimums have been captured since July 4, 2026, so this ledger grows more complete each week.

Benchmark: The Morning-Line Favorite

What betting the morning-line favorite in every race would have returned: the baseline every pick source has to beat.

The simplest possible strategy is to always bet the morning-line favorite — the "chalk." This table shows how that baseline performed across the same thoroughbred races this week, so you can judge the AI's win rates against what the public's top choice delivered. Beating the chalk consistently is the real test of any handicapping model.

MetricCountRate
Settled Races561
Favorite Wins (1st)17831.7%
Favorite Places (2nd)10518.7%
Favorite Shows (3rd)8114.4%
Favorite ITM36464.9%

Consensus Expert Picks

Picks from more than twenty-five published handicappers, weighted into one consensus selection per race.

Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.

MetricCountRate
Total Races651
Top Pick Wins (1st)19633.1%
Top Pick Places (2nd)13122.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)6911.6%
Top Pick ITM39666.8%
Pending58

Exotic Wager Hits (Consensus Top 3 Picks)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager TypeHits (rate of playable races)Description
Exacta49 (10%)Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta56 (11%)Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta18 (4%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta43 (9%)Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Performance by Breed

The same results split by thoroughbred and quarter horse races, which are handicapped differently.

Top-pick win rates vary dramatically by breed. Thoroughbred (TB) racing is the most form-driven and predictable, while Quarter Horse (QH) and Arabian (AR) sprints are decided in a few hundred yards and are far more chaotic — they naturally produce lower win rates. Because the summary above blends all breeds together, this table separates them so each breed's true performance is visible. W/P/S are wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd), with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the In-The-Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX/BEX/TRI/BTRI are exacta, boxed-exacta, trifecta, and boxed-trifecta hits on the top picks. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one), and show dashes for the exotic columns because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket.

Thoroughbred

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner575173 (33%)107 (21%)72 (14%)352 (68%)48 (11%)44 (10%)14 (3%)46 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner575173 (33%)112 (21%)72 (14%)357 (69%)51 (12%)51 (12%)11 (3%)48 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner575161 (31%)100 (19%)77 (15%)338 (65%)45 (10%)45 (10%)11 (3%)33 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner575158 (31%)98 (19%)67 (13%)323 (64%)36 (8%)38 (9%)8 (2%)37 (9%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner575152 (29%)115 (22%)75 (14%)342 (66%)42 (10%)48 (11%)11 (3%)36 (8%)
AI Longshot1627 (5%)13 (10%)9 (7%)29 (23%)————

Performance by Track

The same results split by track, to show where each source is strongest and weakest.

The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one) and show dashes in the exotic columns, because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket that a per-horse longshot flag does not define. Algo 1 is the weighted rating, Algo 2 the AI Ensemble and Algo 3 the AI Win Probability model — ordered by measured performance, so a higher number should be the stronger source; the Weight Set rows are experimental profiles graded as shadows. Comparing sources at a specific track helps identify which is strongest for that venue. The ML Favorite (chalk) row shows how the morning-line favorite performed in that track's thoroughbred races — the baseline any pick source needs to beat to be adding value at that venue.

AIK

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner60 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)

BEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner4816 (36%)9 (20%)3 (7%)28 (64%)5 (14%)1 (3%)1 (3%)3 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner4813 (30%)9 (20%)8 (18%)30 (68%)3 (8%)3 (8%)1 (3%)3 (8%)
Algo 1 Winner4813 (29%)8 (18%)9 (20%)30 (67%)3 (9%)1 (3%)0 (0%)4 (11%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner4813 (30%)8 (18%)6 (14%)27 (61%)2 (5%)2 (5%)0 (0%)2 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner4814 (31%)7 (16%)9 (20%)30 (67%)4 (11%)1 (3%)1 (3%)2 (6%)
AI Longshot121 (9%)1 (9%)1 (9%)3 (27%)————
Expert Consensus4812 (27%)10 (22%)9 (20%)31 (69%)2 (4%)2 (4%)1 (2%)2 (4%)
ML Favorite (chalk)4812 (25%)10 (21%)6 (12%)28 (58%)————

CDX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner287 (27%)6 (23%)2 (8%)15 (58%)2 (9%)2 (9%)0 (0%)4 (18%)
Algo 3 Winner289 (35%)8 (31%)0 (0%)17 (65%)3 (12%)4 (17%)0 (0%)4 (17%)
Algo 1 Winner287 (28%)7 (28%)1 (4%)15 (60%)4 (18%)2 (9%)1 (5%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner286 (24%)6 (24%)1 (4%)13 (52%)0 (0%)1 (5%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner285 (19%)7 (27%)2 (8%)14 (54%)3 (14%)0 (0%)1 (5%)2 (9%)
AI Longshot70 (0%)1 (17%)1 (17%)2 (33%)————
Expert Consensus289 (35%)4 (15%)2 (8%)15 (58%)2 (8%)0 (0%)1 (4%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)286 (21%)5 (18%)3 (11%)14 (50%)————

CTD

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner174 (25%)4 (25%)3 (19%)11 (69%)0 (0%)1 (6%)0 (0%)2 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner175 (31%)3 (19%)2 (12%)10 (62%)1 (6%)2 (12%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner173 (19%)3 (19%)4 (25%)10 (62%)0 (0%)1 (6%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner174 (24%)3 (18%)4 (24%)11 (65%)0 (0%)1 (6%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner172 (12%)2 (12%)3 (19%)7 (44%)0 (0%)1 (6%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot51 (20%)2 (40%)0 (0%)3 (60%)————
ML Favorite (chalk)175 (29%)3 (18%)4 (24%)12 (71%)————

CTX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3214 (45%)8 (26%)3 (10%)25 (81%)7 (24%)6 (21%)3 (10%)5 (17%)
Algo 3 Winner3216 (50%)9 (28%)4 (12%)29 (91%)10 (34%)6 (21%)4 (14%)4 (14%)
Algo 1 Winner3214 (45%)8 (26%)3 (10%)25 (81%)7 (23%)4 (13%)2 (7%)5 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner3212 (38%)10 (31%)3 (9%)25 (78%)3 (11%)7 (26%)1 (4%)7 (26%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner3211 (35%)9 (29%)4 (13%)24 (77%)6 (20%)5 (17%)2 (7%)5 (17%)
Expert Consensus3213 (41%)9 (28%)2 (6%)24 (75%)7 (22%)5 (16%)4 (12%)7 (22%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3212 (38%)11 (34%)1 (3%)24 (75%)————

DED

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3412 (38%)5 (16%)7 (22%)24 (75%)1 (4%)3 (12%)0 (0%)3 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner3411 (37%)4 (13%)6 (20%)21 (70%)2 (9%)2 (9%)0 (0%)3 (13%)
Algo 1 Winner347 (22%)5 (16%)6 (19%)18 (56%)1 (4%)4 (17%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner345 (19%)5 (19%)6 (22%)16 (59%)2 (9%)3 (13%)0 (0%)1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner348 (26%)5 (16%)6 (19%)19 (61%)2 (7%)4 (14%)1 (4%)1 (4%)
AI Longshot60 (0%)0 (0%)1 (20%)1 (20%)————
Expert Consensus349 (27%)4 (12%)4 (12%)17 (52%)1 (3%)2 (6%)0 (0%)1 (3%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3414 (41%)5 (15%)5 (15%)24 (71%)————

EUR

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 10/31 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner80 (0%)2 (50%)1 (25%)3 (75%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner80 (0%)1 (25%)1 (25%)2 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner82 (50%)0 (0%)1 (25%)3 (75%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner80 (0%)3 (75%)1 (25%)4 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner81 (25%)2 (50%)0 (0%)3 (75%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot10 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)————
Expert Consensus90 (0%)1 (25%)1 (25%)2 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)40 (0%)2 (50%)1 (25%)3 (75%)————

EVD

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus285 (19%)8 (30%)3 (11%)16 (59%)3 (11%)3 (11%)2 (7%)0 (0%)

FLX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Mon 11/2 · Tue 11/3

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner2410 (42%)4 (17%)6 (25%)20 (83%)1 (4%)3 (12%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner2410 (42%)4 (17%)6 (25%)20 (83%)1 (4%)3 (12%)0 (0%)3 (12%)
Algo 1 Winner2412 (50%)4 (17%)5 (21%)21 (88%)2 (8%)2 (8%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner249 (38%)3 (12%)5 (21%)17 (71%)2 (8%)3 (12%)0 (0%)4 (17%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner2410 (42%)4 (17%)5 (21%)19 (79%)3 (12%)3 (12%)0 (0%)3 (12%)
Expert Consensus2413 (54%)4 (17%)3 (12%)20 (83%)4 (17%)2 (8%)1 (4%)4 (17%)
ML Favorite (chalk)2411 (46%)3 (12%)4 (17%)18 (75%)————

GPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner326 (26%)6 (26%)4 (17%)16 (70%)3 (15%)3 (15%)3 (15%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner326 (25%)4 (17%)5 (21%)15 (62%)3 (16%)3 (16%)1 (5%)2 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner325 (19%)6 (23%)4 (15%)15 (58%)2 (11%)4 (21%)2 (11%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner327 (29%)5 (21%)2 (8%)14 (58%)3 (16%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner324 (15%)8 (31%)2 (8%)14 (54%)2 (11%)3 (16%)1 (5%)2 (11%)
AI Longshot21 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (50%)————
Expert Consensus354 (15%)11 (42%)2 (8%)17 (65%)1 (4%)5 (19%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3211 (34%)5 (16%)6 (19%)22 (69%)————

IND

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Mon 11/2 · Tue 11/3

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner4110 (26%)13 (34%)5 (13%)28 (74%)3 (10%)3 (10%)1 (3%)3 (10%)
Algo 3 Winner417 (19%)13 (35%)6 (16%)26 (70%)2 (7%)4 (14%)1 (3%)5 (17%)
Algo 1 Winner4112 (32%)9 (24%)4 (11%)25 (68%)4 (14%)4 (14%)0 (0%)3 (10%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner4115 (39%)10 (26%)6 (16%)31 (82%)2 (6%)3 (10%)1 (3%)4 (13%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner4110 (28%)12 (33%)5 (14%)27 (75%)1 (4%)4 (14%)0 (0%)3 (11%)
AI Longshot121 (8%)2 (17%)1 (8%)4 (33%)————
Expert Consensus4611 (25%)12 (27%)9 (20%)32 (73%)2 (5%)4 (9%)1 (2%)7 (16%)
ML Favorite (chalk)419 (22%)10 (24%)7 (17%)26 (63%)————

KEE

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner2211 (50%)3 (14%)0 (0%)14 (64%)4 (24%)2 (12%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Algo 3 Winner228 (36%)5 (23%)0 (0%)13 (59%)1 (6%)2 (12%)0 (0%)3 (18%)
Algo 1 Winner229 (43%)5 (24%)0 (0%)14 (67%)3 (21%)3 (21%)0 (0%)1 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner2210 (50%)4 (20%)1 (5%)15 (75%)1 (6%)0 (0%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner227 (33%)5 (24%)0 (0%)12 (57%)0 (0%)3 (20%)0 (0%)1 (7%)
AI Longshot510 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
Expert Consensus2210 (48%)3 (14%)1 (5%)14 (67%)3 (14%)2 (10%)1 (5%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)2212 (55%)3 (14%)1 (5%)16 (73%)————

LAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner42 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (100%)1 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 3 Winner41 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (50%)1 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Algo 1 Winner42 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (50%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner42 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (100%)2 (100%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner40 (0%)1 (50%)0 (0%)1 (50%)0 (0%)1 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot10 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)————
ML Favorite (chalk)20 (0%)1 (50%)0 (0%)1 (50%)————

LRL

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3916 (43%)7 (19%)8 (22%)31 (84%)5 (17%)3 (10%)1 (3%)2 (7%)
Algo 3 Winner3915 (41%)7 (19%)7 (19%)29 (78%)7 (27%)4 (15%)2 (8%)1 (4%)
Algo 1 Winner3915 (42%)6 (17%)8 (22%)29 (81%)6 (19%)3 (10%)2 (6%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner3915 (47%)5 (16%)4 (12%)24 (75%)4 (15%)3 (12%)2 (8%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner3917 (46%)6 (16%)8 (22%)31 (84%)6 (24%)4 (16%)2 (8%)0 (0%)
AI Longshot250 (0%)2 (11%)3 (16%)5 (26%)————
Expert Consensus5112 (35%)7 (21%)6 (18%)25 (74%)1 (3%)4 (12%)0 (0%)2 (6%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3919 (49%)6 (15%)6 (15%)31 (79%)————

LSX

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus3519 (56%)7 (21%)2 (6%)28 (82%)6 (18%)4 (12%)2 (6%)3 (9%)

MNR

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 11/1 · Mon 11/2 · Tue 11/3

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner244 (25%)2 (12%)1 (6%)7 (44%)1 (8%)1 (8%)0 (0%)1 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner245 (29%)2 (12%)2 (12%)9 (53%)1 (9%)1 (9%)0 (0%)1 (9%)
Algo 1 Winner244 (22%)2 (11%)2 (11%)8 (44%)1 (8%)1 (8%)1 (8%)1 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner248 (44%)1 (6%)1 (6%)10 (56%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)1 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner245 (28%)2 (11%)3 (17%)10 (56%)0 (0%)1 (10%)0 (0%)1 (10%)
AI Longshot90 (0%)2 (29%)1 (14%)3 (43%)————
Expert Consensus246 (35%)3 (18%)2 (12%)11 (65%)1 (6%)2 (12%)1 (6%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)243 (12%)5 (21%)3 (12%)11 (46%)————

MVR

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Mon 11/2 · Tue 11/3

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner327 (22%)7 (22%)3 (9%)17 (53%)4 (15%)1 (4%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Algo 3 Winner329 (28%)7 (22%)2 (6%)18 (56%)3 (11%)3 (11%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
Algo 1 Winner326 (19%)4 (12%)3 (9%)13 (41%)2 (7%)2 (7%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner329 (28%)3 (9%)4 (12%)16 (50%)3 (12%)1 (4%)0 (0%)3 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner326 (19%)4 (12%)4 (12%)14 (44%)3 (11%)2 (7%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
AI Longshot41 (25%)2 (50%)0 (0%)3 (75%)————
Expert Consensus3210 (31%)11 (34%)0 (0%)21 (66%)1 (3%)5 (16%)0 (0%)1 (3%)
ML Favorite (chalk)327 (22%)5 (16%)3 (9%)15 (47%)————

PEN

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner216 (30%)6 (30%)4 (20%)16 (80%)3 (18%)3 (18%)0 (0%)5 (29%)
Algo 3 Winner216 (29%)7 (33%)3 (14%)16 (76%)3 (17%)2 (11%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner215 (28%)7 (39%)2 (11%)14 (78%)3 (18%)2 (12%)0 (0%)3 (18%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner215 (29%)6 (35%)2 (12%)13 (76%)3 (19%)3 (19%)1 (6%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner215 (25%)9 (45%)2 (10%)16 (80%)2 (12%)6 (35%)0 (0%)3 (18%)
Expert Consensus216 (32%)7 (37%)2 (11%)15 (79%)1 (5%)3 (16%)0 (0%)2 (11%)
ML Favorite (chalk)216 (29%)6 (29%)3 (14%)15 (71%)————

PRX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Sat 10/31 · Mon 11/2 · Tue 11/3

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3612 (36%)5 (15%)6 (18%)23 (70%)3 (11%)2 (7%)0 (0%)3 (11%)
Algo 3 Winner3616 (46%)7 (20%)3 (9%)26 (74%)4 (13%)3 (10%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
Algo 1 Winner3615 (45%)4 (12%)7 (21%)26 (79%)2 (7%)3 (11%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner3613 (41%)5 (16%)7 (22%)25 (78%)1 (4%)3 (12%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner3614 (42%)3 (9%)8 (24%)25 (76%)4 (16%)1 (4%)0 (0%)2 (8%)
Expert Consensus3613 (38%)6 (18%)3 (9%)22 (65%)2 (6%)4 (12%)0 (0%)2 (6%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3614 (39%)4 (11%)8 (22%)26 (72%)————

RPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 10/28 · Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3613 (36%)6 (17%)4 (11%)23 (64%)1 (4%)5 (19%)1 (4%)3 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner3612 (34%)7 (20%)4 (11%)23 (66%)3 (12%)4 (16%)0 (0%)4 (16%)
Algo 1 Winner3610 (29%)6 (18%)6 (18%)22 (65%)1 (4%)2 (7%)1 (4%)1 (4%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner368 (24%)5 (15%)5 (15%)18 (55%)2 (7%)3 (11%)0 (0%)2 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner3611 (32%)6 (18%)6 (18%)23 (68%)2 (7%)2 (7%)1 (4%)1 (4%)
AI Longshot30 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)————
Expert Consensus3611 (32%)3 (9%)5 (15%)19 (56%)3 (9%)0 (0%)1 (3%)1 (3%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3611 (31%)8 (22%)6 (17%)25 (69%)————

SAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner297 (25%)5 (18%)3 (11%)15 (54%)2 (8%)1 (4%)2 (8%)3 (12%)
Algo 3 Winner296 (21%)7 (25%)2 (7%)15 (54%)0 (0%)1 (4%)0 (0%)5 (19%)
Algo 1 Winner295 (17%)6 (21%)3 (10%)14 (48%)1 (4%)2 (7%)1 (4%)2 (7%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner295 (18%)5 (18%)3 (11%)13 (46%)3 (12%)1 (4%)1 (4%)2 (8%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner296 (21%)7 (25%)2 (7%)15 (54%)1 (4%)1 (4%)1 (4%)3 (11%)
AI Longshot210 (0%)1 (6%)1 (6%)2 (11%)————
Expert Consensus295 (18%)6 (21%)4 (14%)15 (54%)1 (4%)1 (4%)1 (4%)4 (14%)
ML Favorite (chalk)298 (28%)4 (14%)4 (14%)16 (55%)————

UNI

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner40 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Algo 3 Winner40 (0%)1 (50%)1 (50%)2 (100%)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Algo 1 Winner40 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner40 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)0 (—)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner40 (0%)0 (0%)1 (50%)1 (50%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)

WOX

AI Picks posts graded here: Thu 10/29 · Fri 10/30 · Sat 10/31 · Sun 11/1

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner3810 (28%)5 (14%)4 (11%)19 (53%)2 (6%)3 (9%)1 (3%)3 (9%)
Algo 3 Winner3810 (29%)5 (14%)5 (14%)20 (57%)2 (6%)2 (6%)1 (3%)2 (6%)
Algo 1 Winner3812 (34%)6 (17%)5 (14%)23 (66%)3 (9%)4 (12%)1 (3%)3 (9%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner385 (14%)7 (20%)3 (9%)15 (43%)2 (6%)2 (6%)1 (3%)4 (12%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner3810 (29%)9 (26%)3 (9%)22 (65%)3 (9%)4 (12%)1 (3%)3 (9%)
Expert Consensus3812 (32%)5 (14%)4 (11%)21 (57%)3 (8%)3 (8%)1 (3%)3 (8%)
ML Favorite (chalk)3813 (34%)5 (13%)5 (13%)23 (61%)————

WRD

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Expert Consensus3210 (32%)9 (29%)5 (16%)24 (77%)2 (6%)5 (16%)1 (3%)2 (6%)

ZIA

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 11/2 · Tue 11/3

SourceRacesWPSITMEXBEXTRIBTRI
Algo 2 Winner206 (33%)4 (22%)5 (28%)15 (83%)0 (0%)1 (6%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Algo 3 Winner208 (44%)2 (11%)5 (28%)15 (83%)1 (6%)2 (11%)0 (0%)2 (11%)
Algo 1 Winner203 (16%)4 (21%)4 (21%)11 (58%)0 (0%)1 (5%)0 (0%)1 (5%)
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner207 (37%)4 (21%)3 (16%)14 (74%)1 (6%)2 (11%)0 (0%)1 (6%)
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner206 (32%)7 (37%)2 (11%)15 (79%)0 (0%)2 (11%)0 (0%)2 (11%)
AI Longshot32 (67%)0 (0%)0 (0%)2 (67%)————
Expert Consensus116 (55%)1 (9%)0 (0%)7 (64%)3 (27%)0 (0%)0 (0%)0 (0%)
ML Favorite (chalk)205 (25%)3 (15%)4 (20%)12 (60%)————

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