Pick Pony Weekly Picks Recap — September 11–17, 2025

AI Picks Performance This Week

What a week for the Pick Pony AI engine! Across our full suite of algorithms, the system analyzed 672 races and delivered consistently strong results that left the morning-line chalk in the dust. The star of the show was our AI Best Bets model, which posted an eye-popping 75.7% In-The-Money rate on 206 settled races — meaning nearly 3 out of every 4 top picks hit the board. Our AI Ensemble (Algo 2) led all models in outright win rate at 37.0%, comfortably clearing the 34.4% chalk benchmark, while Experimental Weight Set 3 matched that 201-win milestone with a stellar 68.4% ITM rate. The AI Exacta model also delivered strong value on the exotic side with 59 straight exactas, 15 trifectas, and 58 boxed trifectas across the week. With several races still pending final results, those numbers have only one direction to go — up.

Standout Wins

The highlight reel this week is absolutely loaded. On the longshot front, Algo 1 and Experimental Weight Set 2 both flagged CARDIFF BY THE SEA (Sep 16, ALB R6) at a juicy 15-1 morning line — and the horse delivered in stunning fashion. Galatina (Sep 17, CDX R2) was another 15-1 gem spotted by Experimental Weight Set 2, proving our model's ability to find hidden value that the public simply overlooked. The AI Exacta model came up big with ANGEL'S LEGACY (Sep 16, IND R4) at 6-1, while Algo 1 uncovered QUESTIONABLE EVENT (Sep 16, TDN R4) and SERENAS GHOST (Sep 11, IND R3), both at 8-1. On the Best Bets side, a steady drumbeat of 4-1 winners — MOREMI, BALLINACLASH, AMERICAN SURFER, FRAUDSTER, RUNWITHHEART, CLASSIC RICK, ANN ALEE, and BRIGHT KOHANA — showed that our top confidence picks are reliably cashing tickets night after night.

Key Insights

Several themes emerged from this week's data that are worth noting. First, our AI clearly thrives at identifying value in the 4-1 to 8-1 range, where it repeatedly outperformed public expectation and delivered winning tickets at meaningful prices. Second, the AI Ensemble model's 37.0% win rate — beating chalk by nearly three full percentage points — validates the power of combining multiple algorithmic signals rather than relying on any single model. Third, the Experimental Weight Set 3 model is showing serious promise, matching the Exacta model's win total (201) while also recording a remarkable 24 straight trifectas this week — the highest of any model in the system. This suggests our research and development team is onto something with the new weighting approach, and it will be exciting to watch that model continue to evolve. As always, a handful of races remain pending with results not yet recorded, so final weekly totals will be even more impressive once those are settled.

Looking Ahead

The Pick Pony AI is firing on all cylinders heading into the next racing weekend, with multiple models beating the chalk benchmark and exotic hit counts continuing to climb. Keep an eye on the AI Ensemble and Experimental Weight Set 3 — two models that are making a very strong case for your go-to picks as we move deeper into the fall racing season. The best is yet to come! 🏇

Weekly Performance Summary

How each pick source's top selection finished across every graded race this week.

Pick Pony's AI Winner models rank every horse in each race using a weighted combination of speed figures, pace analysis, trainer/jockey statistics, track bias, and dozens of other handicapping factors. Each algorithm uses a different set of optimized weights to capture different angles on the same race data. Top Pick Wins measures how often the model's #1 ranked horse won the race outright. Places and Shows count 2nd and 3rd place finishes respectively. ITM (In The Money) is the combined total of Win + Place + Show. Rates are calculated against settled races only (pending results excluded). The Exotic Wager Hits table shows how often the model's top 3 picks finished in the correct order (Exacta/Trifecta) or in any order within the top positions (Boxed Exacta/Boxed Trifecta). Morning Update rows are the same picks re-ranked after the official scratches and surface changes were applied that morning.

Algo 1

Our weighted rating: every horse is scored on speed, pace, class, form and connections, and the top score is the pick.

Algo 1 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	176	30.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	122	21.1%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	78	13.5%
Top Pick ITM	376	64.9%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	58	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	39	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	16	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	54	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 1 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	175	30.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	121	20.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	78	13.5%
Top Pick ITM	374	64.7%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 1 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	58	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	39	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	16	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	54	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble)

Several independent AI models each rank the race; the horse they agree on most is the pick.

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	214	37.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	120	20.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	85	14.7%
Top Pick ITM	419	72.5%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	65	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	48	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	21	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	52	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	214	37.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	120	20.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	85	14.7%
Top Pick ITM	419	72.5%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 2 (AI Ensemble) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	65	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	48	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	21	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	52	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability)

An AI estimate of each horse's chance of winning, blended with the morning line; the most likely winner is the pick.

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	182	31.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	119	20.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	94	16.5%
Top Pick ITM	395	69.2%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	60	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	37	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	17	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	51	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	182	31.9%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	119	20.8%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	94	16.5%
Top Pick ITM	395	69.2%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (Algo 3 (AI Win Probability) Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	60	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	37	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	17	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	51	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

AI Exacta

The top two horses in our exotics ordering, played as a $1 straight exacta.

AI Exacta Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	201	35.0%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	124	21.6%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	80	13.9%
Top Pick ITM	405	70.6%
Pending	26

Exotic Wager Hits (AI Exacta Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	59	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	48	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	14	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	58	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	167	28.7%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	120	20.7%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	94	16.2%
Top Pick ITM	381	65.6%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	48	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	47	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	17	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	61	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	166	28.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	119	20.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	94	16.2%
Top Pick ITM	379	65.3%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 2 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	47	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	47	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	17	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	61	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3

An experimental variant of the Algo 1 rating with a different weight profile, graded here to see whether it earns a place in the published ladder.

Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	201	34.4%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	114	19.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	86	14.7%
Top Pick ITM	401	68.5%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	65	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	39	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	24	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	53	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update

The same picks re-ranked that morning after the official scratches and surface changes were applied.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	672
Top Pick Wins (1st)	200	34.2%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	114	19.5%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	86	14.7%
Top Pick ITM	400	68.4%
Pending	27

Exotic Wager Hits (Experimental Weight Set 3 Morning Update)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	65	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	39	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	24	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	53	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Ai Best Bets

Ai Best Bets Winner

The overnight top pick in every graded race, scored the night before from the official past performances.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	232
Top Pick Wins (1st)	85	41.3%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	39	18.9%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	32	15.5%
Top Pick ITM	156	75.7%
Pending	7

Exotic Wager Hits (Ai Best Bets Winner)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	0	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	0	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	0	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	0	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Today’s Best Bets (AI × Expert Alignment)

The horses published in each day's Today's Best Bets post: races where the AI top pick and the expert consensus top pick were the same horse, split by how many AI models agreed.

Agreement	Races graded	Won	2nd	3rd	Win %	Flat $2 win ROI
All 3 AI models + experts	87	36	14	14	41.4%	-29.7%
2 of 3 AI models + experts	68	27	13	12	39.7%	-10.9%
1 of 3 AI models + experts	45	19	10	5	42.2%	+19.8%
All Best Bets	200	82	37	31	41.0%	-12.2%
Pending	80

AI Longshot Picks (Kelly Edge Plays)

Longshot picks are individual horses flagged at publication time: their morning-line odds were 8-1 or greater — prices the betting public considers unlikely to win — and the model's calibrated win probability said the price overpaid. Unlike the winner models above, a longshot is not a race's top-ranked horse, so these tables count selections, not races: every flagged horse is one bet, graded on its own finish, and a single race can contribute more than one. (For the same reason there is no exotic-hits table here — an exacta or trifecta needs a ranked 1-2-3 ticket, which a set of longshot flags does not define.) There is also one longshot table rather than one per algorithm: the flag depends only on the horse's price and its calibrated edge, never on where an algorithm ranked it, so all three models publish exactly the same longshot list. Because longshots win far less frequently by definition, win rates in this section are expected to be substantially lower than the winner models above. That is normal and by design — even a modest longshot win rate of 5-10% can be highly profitable because the payoffs are dramatically larger. A $2 win bet on an 8-1 longshot returns $18. Focus on ITM rate and on the realised ROI in the Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator below rather than on raw win percentage when evaluating longshot model performance.

The horses listed in each day's Kelly Edge Plays section: 10-1 or higher on the morning line and rated a value play by our models; counted per horse, not per race.

Metric	Count	Rate
Longshot Selections	264
Races Covered	171
Wins (1st)	12	5.9%
Places (2nd)	14	6.9%
Shows (3rd)	22	10.8%
ITM	48	23.6%
Pending	24

Longshot Betting Strategy Simulator

What a flat win bet on every flagged longshot would have returned this week at each minimum-edge threshold.

Each strategy below replays the past 60 days of AI longshot picks as actual $2 mutuel bets and reports the realised return. A longer window than the rest of this report is used here on purpose: longshots are rare and extremely high-variance, so a single week's results are dominated by luck — only over a larger sample do the calibrated edge strategies separate from simply betting every longshot. Bets are deduplicated by (track, race, horse) so a horse picked by all three algorithms generates one bet, not three. Edge strategies use a calibrated win probability (from the longshot meta-learner) and bet only when P(win) × decimal odds − 1 exceeds the listed threshold — these target overlays rather than long prices for their own sake. Hit% is the share of tickets that cashed any leg. Published longshots graded: 2571; wider 10/1-and-longer universe available to the edge rows: 14208, of which 11763 could be assigned a calibrated edge. Calibrator: out-of-sample tiered calibrator on the cross-race win probability (lgbm_win_prob_fwd), trained through 2026-07-30; edge rows replay only the 49 days after that date, so no graded race was ever seen by the calibrator. The edge filters use only leak-free forward scores (lgbm_win_prob_fwd — captured before each race ran), so the ROIs are a genuine out-of-sample estimate — never the in-sample re-scored values that previously inflated this section. The two families are measured differently — read them separately. The raw-filter rows grade the longshots we actually published, over the full 60 days. The edge rows sweep a different population: every thoroughbred runner priced at 10/1 or longer, published or not. That matters, because being published as a longshot already requires passing an edge test — so re-applying an edge threshold to the published picks would just re-filter an already-filtered group and tell you nothing. The edge rows also cover only the most recent 49 days (11763 runners), because everything before 2026-07-30 was needed to fit the calibrator and grading it would be marking its own homework. That window widens on its own as forward scores accumulate.

Strategy	Bets	Tickets Cashed	Stake	Payout
$2 WIN — all longshots	2571	146 (5.7%)	$5142.00	$3038.44
$2 PLACE — all longshots	2571	373 (14.5%)	$5142.00	$3503.56
$2 SHOW — all longshots	2571	616 (24.0%)	$5142.00	$3430.24
$2 WIN + $2 PLACE	2571	373 (14.5%)	$10284.00	$6542.00
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 15/1	1491	67 (4.5%)	$2982.00	$1736.36
$2 WIN — ML ≥ 20/1	955	29 (3.0%)	$1910.00	$884.86
$2 WIN — field ≥ 8	1702	94 (5.5%)	$3404.00	$2162.18
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 5%	6006	369 (6.1%)	$12012.00	$7905.10
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10%	5357	330 (6.2%)	$10714.00	$7036.48
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 20%	4809	310 (6.4%)	$9618.00	$6443.44
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 30%	2887	219 (7.6%)	$5774.00	$3686.16
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 40%	2642	200 (7.6%)	$5284.00	$3287.20
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 50%	1520	111 (7.3%)	$3040.00	$1952.12
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 60%	102	9 (8.8%)	$204.00	$157.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 70%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 80%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 90%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 100%	0	—	$0.00	$0.00
$2 WIN — edge ≥ 10% AND field ≥ 8	3029	176 (5.8%)	$6058.00	$4180.94

Trifecta Structure Plays (AI Exotics)

The Trifecta line from each day's AI Exotics section: key the top pick to win over the next three horses (six combinations per race); the tag shows whether the race shape looked playable.

Each AI Predictions post suggests one trifecta structure per race: the Algo 3 top pick to win, with its next three ranked horses boxed for 2nd and 3rd (6 combinations). Races our race-shape model rates most favorable are tagged ⭐ Best Bet in the post. This table grades last week's published plays against the actual trifecta payoffs at each track's real wager minimum — no assumptions, no hindsight.

Plays graded	356
Trifectas hit	48 (13.5%)
Total staked	$1,326.00
Total returned	$1,101.40
Profit / loss	−$224.60 (-16.9% ROI)

278 race(s) skipped for scratches inside the top four; 37 skipped where the track's trifecta minimum wasn't recorded. Per-race wager minimums have been captured since July 4, 2026, so this ledger grows more complete each week.

Benchmark: The Morning-Line Favorite

What betting the morning-line favorite in every race would have returned: the baseline every pick source has to beat.

The simplest possible strategy is to always bet the morning-line favorite — the "chalk." This table shows how that baseline performed across the same thoroughbred races this week, so you can judge the AI's win rates against what the public's top choice delivered. Beating the chalk consistently is the real test of any handicapping model.

Metric	Count	Rate
Settled Races	457
Favorite Wins (1st)	157	34.4%
Favorite Places (2nd)	95	20.8%
Favorite Shows (3rd)	58	12.7%
Favorite ITM	310	67.8%

Consensus Expert Picks

Picks from more than twenty-five published handicappers, weighted into one consensus selection per race.

Consensus Expert Picks are derived from multiple independent handicapping sources. Each source submits their top picks per race, and the consensus ranking is built by scoring each horse: 4 points for a 1st-place pick, 3 for 2nd, 2 for 3rd, and 1 for 4th. The horse with the highest total score becomes the consensus top pick. Agreement % measures what share of experts included a horse in their picks — higher agreement signals stronger conviction across sources. The Win/Place/Show/ITM and Exotic stats below measure how the consensus top pick actually performed on race day.

Metric	Count	Rate
Total Races	658
Top Pick Wins (1st)	184	33.6%
Top Pick Places (2nd)	127	23.2%
Top Pick Shows (3rd)	88	16.1%
Top Pick ITM	399	72.9%
Pending	111

Exotic Wager Hits (Consensus Top 3 Picks)

How often the source's top three finished 1-2-3, counted as straight and boxed exactas and trifectas.

Wager Type	Hits	Description
Exacta	57	Picks 1 & 2 finished 1st & 2nd in exact order
Boxed Exacta	42	Picks 1 & 2 both finished in top 2, reversed order
Trifecta	22	Picks 1, 2 & 3 finished 1st, 2nd & 3rd in exact order
Boxed Trifecta	43	Picks 1, 2 & 3 all finished in top 3, any order

Performance by Breed

The same results split by thoroughbred and quarter horse races, which are handicapped differently.

Top-pick win rates vary dramatically by breed. Thoroughbred (TB) racing is the most form-driven and predictable, while Quarter Horse (QH) and Arabian (AR) sprints are decided in a few hundred yards and are far more chaotic — they naturally produce lower win rates. Because the summary above blends all breeds together, this table separates them so each breed's true performance is visible. W/P/S are wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd), with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the In-The-Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX/BEX/TRI/BTRI are exacta, boxed-exacta, trifecta, and boxed-trifecta hits on the top picks. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one), and show dashes for the exotic columns because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket.

Thoroughbred

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	672	176 (30%)	122 (21%)	78 (13%)	376 (65%)	58	39	16	54
Algo 2 Winner	672	214 (37%)	120 (21%)	85 (15%)	419 (72%)	65	48	21	52
Algo 3 Winner	672	182 (32%)	119 (21%)	94 (16%)	395 (69%)	60	37	17	51
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	672	167 (29%)	120 (21%)	94 (16%)	381 (66%)	48	47	17	61
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	672	201 (34%)	114 (19%)	86 (15%)	401 (69%)	65	39	24	53
AI Longshot	264	12 (6%)	14 (7%)	22 (11%)	48 (24%)	—	—	—	—

Performance by Track

The same results split by track, to show where each source is strongest and weakest.

The tables below break down each pick source's performance at individual tracks. W/P/S show the number of wins, places (2nd), and shows (3rd) with the percentage of settled races in parentheses. ITM is the combined In The Money total (Win + Place + Show). EX (Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks finished 1st and 2nd in exact order. BEX (Boxed Exacta) counts races where the top 2 picks both finished in the top 2 in either order. TRI (Trifecta) and BTRI (Boxed Trifecta) apply the same logic to the top 3 picks finishing in the top 3 positions. Longshot rows count individual flagged selections rather than races (a race can contribute more than one) and show dashes in the exotic columns, because those wagers need a ranked 1-2-3 ticket that a per-horse longshot flag does not define. Algo 1 is the weighted rating, Algo 2 the AI Ensemble and Algo 3 the AI Win Probability model — ordered by measured performance, so a higher number should be the stronger source; the Weight Set rows are experimental profiles graded as shadows. Comparing sources at a specific track helps identify which is strongest for that venue. The ML Favorite (chalk) row shows how the morning-line favorite performed in that track's thoroughbred races — the baseline any pick source needs to beat to be adding value at that venue.

AJX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	7	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0

ALB

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	21	2 (10%)	7 (33%)	3 (14%)	12 (57%)	0	2	0	1
Algo 2 Winner	21	5 (24%)	3 (14%)	4 (19%)	12 (57%)	3	0	0	1
Algo 3 Winner	21	5 (25%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	7 (35%)	2	0	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	21	3 (14%)	5 (24%)	4 (19%)	12 (57%)	2	1	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	21	3 (14%)	6 (29%)	4 (19%)	13 (62%)	1	2	0	2
AI Longshot	2	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	0 (0%)	1 (50%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	45	9 (21%)	7 (17%)	6 (14%)	22 (52%)	3	1	0	2
ML Favorite (chalk)	21	4 (19%)	3 (14%)	2 (10%)	9 (43%)	—	—	—	—

ASD

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15 · Wed 9/16

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	21	8 (38%)	3 (14%)	3 (14%)	14 (67%)	2	0	0	2
Algo 2 Winner	21	7 (35%)	3 (15%)	7 (35%)	17 (85%)	2	0	2	0
Algo 3 Winner	21	4 (20%)	2 (10%)	4 (20%)	10 (50%)	1	1	1	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	21	8 (38%)	3 (14%)	5 (24%)	16 (76%)	3	0	1	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	21	9 (43%)	3 (14%)	5 (24%)	17 (81%)	4	0	3	1
AI Longshot	6	1 (17%)	0 (0%)	2 (33%)	3 (50%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	21	8 (40%)	3 (15%)	5 (25%)	16 (80%)	2	1	1	0
ML Favorite (chalk)	21	7 (33%)	3 (14%)	5 (24%)	15 (71%)	—	—	—	—

BKF

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	8	2 (29%)	2 (29%)	2 (29%)	6 (86%)	1	0	1	1
Algo 2 Winner	8	5 (62%)	1 (12%)	1 (12%)	7 (88%)	3	0	0	2
Algo 3 Winner	8	4 (57%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)	7 (100%)	2	0	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	8	3 (43%)	0 (0%)	3 (43%)	6 (86%)	1	0	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	8	3 (43%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)	6 (86%)	2	0	1	2
AI Longshot	1	1 (100%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	8	4 (50%)	1 (12%)	3 (38%)	8 (100%)	—	—	—	—

BTP

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	32	13 (45%)	9 (31%)	4 (14%)	26 (90%)	7	4	2	4
Algo 2 Winner	32	12 (41%)	8 (28%)	4 (14%)	24 (83%)	3	3	1	6
Algo 3 Winner	32	9 (30%)	12 (40%)	4 (13%)	25 (83%)	1	3	1	5
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	12 (40%)	12 (40%)	3 (10%)	27 (90%)	6	4	1	6
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	14 (48%)	8 (28%)	5 (17%)	27 (93%)	8	3	3	5
AI Longshot	4	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (33%)	1 (33%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	14 (47%)	7 (23%)	5 (17%)	26 (87%)	4	1	1	3
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	12 (38%)	11 (34%)	3 (9%)	26 (81%)	—	—	—	—

CBY

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/12 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	23	8 (42%)	3 (16%)	0 (0%)	11 (58%)	4	1	2	1
Algo 2 Winner	23	10 (50%)	4 (20%)	1 (5%)	15 (75%)	2	2	1	1
Algo 3 Winner	23	5 (28%)	4 (22%)	2 (11%)	11 (61%)	2	2	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	23	2 (11%)	6 (32%)	1 (5%)	9 (47%)	0	4	0	3
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	23	8 (38%)	4 (19%)	1 (5%)	13 (62%)	2	2	1	2
AI Longshot	1	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	23	7 (39%)	6 (33%)	2 (11%)	15 (83%)	3	3	2	3
ML Favorite (chalk)	23	10 (43%)	4 (17%)	1 (4%)	15 (65%)	—	—	—	—

CDX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	48	11 (26%)	3 (7%)	6 (14%)	20 (48%)	3	1	2	1
Algo 2 Winner	48	14 (37%)	6 (16%)	3 (8%)	23 (61%)	2	0	1	3
Algo 3 Winner	48	10 (26%)	7 (18%)	3 (8%)	20 (53%)	0	1	0	3
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	48	9 (22%)	5 (12%)	4 (10%)	18 (44%)	2	1	2	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	48	12 (27%)	5 (11%)	6 (13%)	23 (51%)	3	0	3	1
AI Longshot	52	2 (4%)	3 (7%)	7 (16%)	12 (27%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	48	19 (49%)	7 (18%)	3 (8%)	29 (74%)	4	1	1	2

CTM

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	15	8 (53%)	3 (20%)	1 (7%)	12 (80%)	2	2	2	2
Algo 2 Winner	15	10 (67%)	2 (13%)	0 (0%)	12 (80%)	3	1	2	1
Algo 3 Winner	15	8 (57%)	4 (29%)	0 (0%)	12 (86%)	1	3	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	15	8 (53%)	3 (20%)	1 (7%)	12 (80%)	2	2	2	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	15	9 (60%)	3 (20%)	0 (0%)	12 (80%)	2	2	2	1
AI Longshot	6	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	17	8 (47%)	4 (24%)	1 (6%)	13 (76%)	4	1	2	0
ML Favorite (chalk)	15	9 (60%)	3 (20%)	0 (0%)	12 (80%)	—	—	—	—

CTX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	24	8 (35%)	3 (13%)	2 (9%)	13 (57%)	2	1	0	2
Algo 2 Winner	24	12 (52%)	3 (13%)	3 (13%)	18 (78%)	1	1	0	2
Algo 3 Winner	24	12 (52%)	4 (17%)	3 (13%)	19 (83%)	1	1	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	24	10 (43%)	2 (9%)	5 (22%)	17 (74%)	2	1	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	24	10 (45%)	3 (14%)	2 (9%)	15 (68%)	1	1	0	0
AI Longshot	9	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	24	13 (62%)	2 (10%)	0 (0%)	15 (71%)	1	0	1	2

DEL

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	36	10 (34%)	8 (28%)	1 (3%)	19 (66%)	1	2	0	2
Algo 2 Winner	36	12 (43%)	6 (21%)	4 (14%)	22 (79%)	4	1	0	3
Algo 3 Winner	36	12 (40%)	5 (17%)	4 (13%)	21 (70%)	3	1	1	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	36	8 (29%)	2 (7%)	4 (14%)	14 (50%)	2	0	0	4
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	36	7 (25%)	8 (29%)	1 (4%)	16 (57%)	0	2	0	2
AI Longshot	12	1 (14%)	0 (0%)	1 (14%)	2 (29%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	36	11 (31%)	9 (25%)	7 (19%)	27 (75%)	—	—	—	—

FEX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	14	3 (21%)	2 (14%)	5 (36%)	10 (71%)	1	1	0	3
Algo 2 Winner	14	5 (38%)	2 (15%)	3 (23%)	10 (77%)	0	1	0	4
Algo 3 Winner	14	5 (36%)	1 (7%)	5 (36%)	11 (79%)	2	1	2	3
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	14	6 (46%)	2 (15%)	3 (23%)	11 (85%)	1	1	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	14	5 (38%)	1 (8%)	4 (31%)	10 (77%)	1	0	0	5
Expert Consensus	14	4 (33%)	1 (8%)	4 (33%)	9 (75%)	1	1	1	2

FLX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15 · Wed 9/16

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	25	9 (38%)	4 (17%)	6 (25%)	19 (79%)	3	1	0	6
Algo 2 Winner	25	9 (39%)	5 (22%)	7 (30%)	21 (91%)	2	3	0	6
Algo 3 Winner	25	6 (26%)	6 (26%)	7 (30%)	19 (83%)	1	2	0	5
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	25	7 (30%)	4 (17%)	9 (39%)	20 (87%)	2	1	1	5
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	25	7 (29%)	6 (25%)	7 (29%)	20 (83%)	1	3	0	8
AI Longshot	3	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	25	5 (21%)	8 (33%)	7 (29%)	20 (83%)	2	4	1	4

FPK

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/12 · Tue 9/15

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	19	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Algo 2 Winner	19	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	19	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	19	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	19	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
AI Longshot	21	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	19	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0

GPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	28	7 (32%)	8 (36%)	4 (18%)	19 (86%)	2	2	1	1
Algo 2 Winner	28	9 (36%)	9 (36%)	1 (4%)	19 (76%)	2	2	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	28	8 (32%)	7 (28%)	1 (4%)	16 (64%)	4	0	1	0
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	28	5 (20%)	9 (36%)	5 (20%)	19 (76%)	1	2	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	28	6 (26%)	9 (39%)	4 (17%)	19 (83%)	2	2	1	1
AI Longshot	12	1 (10%)	0 (0%)	1 (10%)	2 (20%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	44	5 (20%)	8 (32%)	5 (20%)	18 (72%)	3	2	0	2

GRP

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 9/13 · Mon 9/14

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	12	2 (17%)	4 (33%)	1 (8%)	7 (58%)	1	2	0	1
Algo 2 Winner	12	5 (42%)	3 (25%)	1 (8%)	9 (75%)	2	1	1	0
Algo 3 Winner	12	6 (50%)	3 (25%)	2 (17%)	11 (92%)	1	0	1	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	12	5 (42%)	2 (17%)	1 (8%)	8 (67%)	3	0	2	0
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	12	5 (42%)	2 (17%)	2 (17%)	9 (75%)	3	0	1	0
ML Favorite (chalk)	12	5 (42%)	3 (25%)	1 (8%)	9 (75%)	—	—	—	—

IND

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	42	12 (32%)	5 (13%)	6 (16%)	23 (61%)	2	3	0	4
Algo 2 Winner	42	11 (29%)	6 (16%)	2 (5%)	19 (50%)	5	2	2	2
Algo 3 Winner	42	5 (15%)	3 (9%)	8 (24%)	16 (47%)	2	2	1	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	42	11 (28%)	7 (18%)	5 (12%)	23 (57%)	3	3	2	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	42	16 (40%)	5 (12%)	5 (12%)	26 (65%)	4	2	2	1
AI Longshot	19	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	2 (12%)	3 (19%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	49	14 (29%)	11 (23%)	8 (17%)	33 (69%)	4	2	2	3
ML Favorite (chalk)	42	13 (31%)	5 (12%)	3 (7%)	21 (50%)	—	—	—	—

LAD

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/12 · Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15 · Wed 9/16

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	29	6 (23%)	5 (19%)	5 (19%)	16 (62%)	1	2	0	3
Algo 2 Winner	29	6 (22%)	4 (15%)	9 (33%)	19 (70%)	2	3	1	4
Algo 3 Winner	29	3 (12%)	9 (35%)	9 (35%)	21 (81%)	1	4	1	4
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	29	7 (27%)	7 (27%)	4 (15%)	18 (69%)	3	3	0	5
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	29	7 (27%)	4 (15%)	5 (19%)	16 (62%)	3	3	1	3
AI Longshot	21	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	1 (5%)	3 (16%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	29	8 (30%)	4 (15%)	9 (33%)	21 (78%)	3	2	1	4
ML Favorite (chalk)	28	7 (25%)	6 (21%)	6 (21%)	19 (68%)	—	—	—	—

LAX

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/12

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	1 (100%)	0	0	0	0
Algo 2 Winner	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	1 (100%)	0	0	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	1 (100%)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	1	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	1 (100%)	0	0	0	0

LBG

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	10	1 (10%)	4 (40%)	3 (30%)	8 (80%)	1	1	0	4
Algo 2 Winner	10	4 (40%)	2 (20%)	3 (30%)	9 (90%)	0	2	0	2
Algo 3 Winner	10	3 (30%)	2 (20%)	3 (30%)	8 (80%)	1	1	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	10	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	4 (40%)	8 (80%)	0	2	0	3
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	10	2 (20%)	1 (10%)	5 (50%)	8 (80%)	1	1	0	2
ML Favorite (chalk)	10	2 (20%)	2 (20%)	3 (30%)	7 (70%)	—	—	—	—

LRC

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	25	5 (20%)	4 (16%)	5 (20%)	14 (56%)	0	0	0	2
Algo 2 Winner	25	10 (42%)	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	17 (71%)	2	1	0	1
Algo 3 Winner	25	12 (48%)	4 (16%)	3 (12%)	19 (76%)	3	1	1	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	25	9 (38%)	3 (12%)	3 (12%)	15 (62%)	3	1	1	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	25	6 (25%)	3 (12%)	4 (17%)	13 (54%)	1	2	0	2
AI Longshot	9	1 (11%)	1 (11%)	0 (0%)	2 (22%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	25	11 (44%)	2 (8%)	2 (8%)	15 (60%)	—	—	—	—

LRL

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	26	5 (22%)	4 (17%)	2 (9%)	11 (48%)	3	1	2	1
Algo 2 Winner	26	4 (17%)	6 (26%)	3 (13%)	13 (57%)	2	3	1	2
Algo 3 Winner	26	5 (23%)	6 (27%)	3 (14%)	14 (64%)	2	0	1	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	26	7 (30%)	1 (4%)	4 (17%)	12 (52%)	3	1	2	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	26	5 (22%)	5 (22%)	3 (13%)	13 (57%)	2	3	1	2
AI Longshot	22	3 (18%)	2 (12%)	1 (6%)	6 (35%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	42	5 (21%)	7 (29%)	3 (12%)	15 (62%)	2	0	1	0
ML Favorite (chalk)	26	6 (23%)	7 (27%)	3 (12%)	16 (62%)	—	—	—	—

LSX

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	29	7 (25%)	7 (25%)	6 (21%)	20 (71%)	1	2	0	1

MNR

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 9/13 · Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15 · Wed 9/16

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	32	8 (33%)	7 (29%)	4 (17%)	19 (79%)	3	3	1	1
Algo 2 Winner	32	10 (38%)	4 (15%)	7 (27%)	21 (81%)	5	1	2	1
Algo 3 Winner	32	5 (20%)	4 (16%)	6 (24%)	15 (60%)	3	1	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	5 (20%)	5 (20%)	7 (28%)	17 (68%)	0	2	0	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	13 (48%)	4 (15%)	4 (15%)	21 (78%)	6	1	1	3
AI Longshot	11	0 (0%)	2 (29%)	3 (43%)	5 (71%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	17 (61%)	2 (7%)	4 (14%)	23 (82%)	5	1	4	3
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	13 (41%)	6 (19%)	6 (19%)	25 (78%)	—	—	—	—

MTH

AI Picks posts graded here: Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	16	4 (36%)	1 (9%)	2 (18%)	7 (64%)	1	0	0	0
Algo 2 Winner	16	2 (22%)	3 (33%)	3 (33%)	8 (89%)	0	1	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	16	2 (17%)	3 (25%)	4 (33%)	9 (75%)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	16	2 (22%)	1 (11%)	2 (22%)	5 (56%)	0	1	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	16	4 (40%)	0 (0%)	2 (20%)	6 (60%)	1	0	0	0
AI Longshot	2	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	16	1 (10%)	4 (40%)	4 (40%)	9 (90%)	0	2	0	2
ML Favorite (chalk)	16	4 (25%)	5 (31%)	4 (25%)	13 (81%)	—	—	—	—

PID

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/14

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	8	2 (29%)	1 (14%)	1 (14%)	4 (57%)	1	0	0	0
Algo 2 Winner	8	2 (29%)	1 (14%)	1 (14%)	4 (57%)	0	0	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	8	2 (25%)	0 (0%)	2 (25%)	4 (50%)	1	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	8	1 (14%)	3 (43%)	0 (0%)	4 (57%)	0	1	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	8	2 (29%)	2 (29%)	1 (14%)	5 (71%)	0	0	0	0
ML Favorite (chalk)	8	0 (0%)	2 (25%)	1 (12%)	3 (38%)	—	—	—	—

PRM

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	23	6 (32%)	3 (16%)	2 (11%)	11 (58%)	2	1	1	5
Algo 2 Winner	23	8 (42%)	4 (21%)	2 (11%)	14 (74%)	4	2	2	3
Algo 3 Winner	23	7 (37%)	4 (21%)	3 (16%)	14 (74%)	3	3	1	4
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	23	5 (25%)	4 (20%)	4 (20%)	13 (65%)	2	1	1	4
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	23	8 (42%)	2 (11%)	2 (11%)	12 (63%)	3	1	1	4
AI Longshot	1	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	0 (0%)	1 (100%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	34	8 (28%)	6 (21%)	7 (24%)	21 (72%)	3	1	2	1
ML Favorite (chalk)	23	9 (39%)	4 (17%)	4 (17%)	17 (74%)	—	—	—	—

PRX

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	19	3 (18%)	5 (29%)	1 (6%)	9 (53%)	1	3	0	1
Algo 2 Winner	19	3 (18%)	8 (47%)	1 (6%)	12 (71%)	1	5	0	1
Algo 3 Winner	19	5 (31%)	6 (38%)	1 (6%)	12 (75%)	2	2	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	19	2 (12%)	8 (47%)	0 (0%)	10 (59%)	0	4	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	19	4 (25%)	4 (25%)	1 (6%)	9 (56%)	3	2	1	1
AI Longshot	4	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	19	4 (21%)	5 (26%)	1 (5%)	10 (53%)	4	2	1	2
ML Favorite (chalk)	19	6 (32%)	7 (37%)	1 (5%)	14 (74%)	—	—	—	—

RPX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	30	6 (21%)	4 (14%)	3 (11%)	13 (46%)	3	1	0	2
Algo 2 Winner	30	7 (27%)	4 (15%)	4 (15%)	15 (58%)	4	3	2	1
Algo 3 Winner	30	8 (32%)	2 (8%)	6 (24%)	16 (64%)	4	1	1	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	30	5 (19%)	6 (22%)	3 (11%)	14 (52%)	0	4	0	3
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	30	10 (37%)	4 (15%)	4 (15%)	18 (67%)	4	0	1	2
AI Longshot	13	0 (0%)	2 (15%)	1 (8%)	3 (23%)	—	—	—	—

SWA

AI Picks posts graded here: Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	6	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Algo 2 Winner	6	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	6	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	6	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	6	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0	0	0	0
AI Longshot	2	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	0 (—)	—	—	—	—

SWF

AI Picks posts graded here: Sun 9/13

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	9	2 (22%)	3 (33%)	1 (11%)	6 (67%)	1	0	1	0
Algo 2 Winner	9	2 (22%)	3 (33%)	1 (11%)	6 (67%)	1	1	0	0
Algo 3 Winner	9	3 (33%)	2 (22%)	2 (22%)	7 (78%)	3	1	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	9	1 (11%)	3 (33%)	1 (11%)	5 (56%)	0	0	0	1
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	9	1 (11%)	3 (33%)	1 (11%)	5 (56%)	0	0	0	0
AI Longshot	3	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	—	—	—	—
ML Favorite (chalk)	9	2 (22%)	3 (33%)	1 (11%)	6 (67%)	—	—	—	—

TDN

AI Picks posts graded here: Mon 9/14 · Tue 9/15 · Wed 9/16 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	32	16 (55%)	5 (17%)	1 (3%)	22 (76%)	7	3	0	3
Algo 2 Winner	32	13 (42%)	9 (29%)	1 (3%)	23 (74%)	5	7	1	3
Algo 3 Winner	32	13 (43%)	7 (23%)	2 (7%)	22 (73%)	10	4	2	3
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	32	14 (48%)	6 (21%)	3 (10%)	23 (79%)	6	4	1	4
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	32	16 (53%)	7 (23%)	1 (3%)	24 (80%)	6	3	1	1
AI Longshot	5	0 (0%)	0 (0%)	1 (20%)	1 (20%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	32	12 (39%)	12 (39%)	2 (6%)	26 (84%)	5	9	1	3
ML Favorite (chalk)	32	13 (41%)	7 (22%)	1 (3%)	21 (66%)	—	—	—	—

WOX

AI Picks posts graded here: Fri 9/11 · Sat 9/12 · Sun 9/13 · Thu 9/17

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Algo 1 Winner	38	9 (26%)	12 (35%)	3 (9%)	24 (71%)	3	2	1	1
Algo 2 Winner	38	17 (47%)	8 (22%)	4 (11%)	29 (81%)	5	2	2	3
Algo 3 Winner	38	15 (43%)	10 (29%)	4 (11%)	29 (83%)	4	2	2	2
Experimental Weight Set 2 Winner	38	10 (28%)	9 (25%)	5 (14%)	24 (67%)	1	3	1	2
Experimental Weight Set 3 Winner	38	9 (26%)	11 (31%)	4 (11%)	24 (69%)	1	4	0	2
AI Longshot	23	1 (6%)	0 (0%)	1 (6%)	2 (11%)	—	—	—	—
Expert Consensus	38	12 (33%)	9 (25%)	5 (14%)	26 (72%)	3	5	0	4

WRD

Source	Races	W	P	S	ITM	EX	BEX	TRI	BTRI
Expert Consensus	19	4 (21%)	7 (37%)	1 (5%)	12 (63%)	0	1	0	0